As a Manchester City fan I was delighted when Thai billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra bought into the club before the start of the current English Premier League season. Obviously the money he brought to the table was one thing but the appointment of Sven Goran Eriksson to most City fans was a sign of hope after a couple of particularly mediocre seasons. It was also a relief as Sven took the reins only three weeks before the start of the season. "How will he possibly get a competitive side together in time?" was a question many of us were asking but stunningly he assembled a squad that sat in the top four for most of the first half of the season. He introduced the EPL to the likes of Martin Petrov, Elano and Vedran Corluka who have been standouts this season, in particular Petrov. The team's performance has deteriorated since that fine start and Thaksin has voiced his displeasure with the manager, mostly not to the manager himself. This is where Thaksin shows a complete lack of understanding of the game and illustrates that he has no concept of the word 'team'.
The form slump began with City struggling to find the back of the net. They had lost Valeri Bojinov to a serious knee injury in the Manchester Derby earlier in the season and had released Rolando Bianchi after he was not quite able to fit in. Elano was then injured. This left City with very few striking options and worse was to come. Petrov was suspended and down went the back four one by one. No doubt Thaksin was upset at the weekend when the side let a two goal lead slip to lose against Fulham but things like that can happen when you have a striker/midfielder (Elano) playing right back. The man simply has no troops to choose from at the moment.
Sven has done a very good job with City. Any fan wearing sky blue will tell you this. He also did a fine job with England although no-one from England will admit as much. How the English thought they were going to win it all without the technical ability and skills of the likes of Italy, France and Brazil and lacking creativity through the midfield was a tad bemusing. A World Cup quarter final? Is that all we can come up with? Well, quite frankly, yes, that was a good result for that particular squad.
Manchester City fans everywhere are outraged by this decision. After being lucky enough to attend City's home win over Aston Villa I could sense just how much the blue half of Manchester revered and admired the man. We are waving goodbye to a well-spoken, quotable, successful and enormously popular manager who was given only one year to prove his worth after building a team from scratch. And Thaksin has been hopelessy outnumbered on this one, not just by the fans, but the media, and more importantly the players as well. The players love playing for him and are reported to be shattered by his impending departure.
Just hope your club is not next to be taken over by an irrational and naive fool from a country that knows nothing about football and who has far too much money and time on his hands.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
IPL
The IPL has still got a month to go, and as someone who had become increasingly bored by cricket over the past year, that is great news.
The IPL has shown just how stale the game in Australia has become.
The other odd thing that the IPL has shown me is just how boring the current Australian unit has become.
I cheer for any team against the Knight Riders because I am not a Ricky Ponting fan. But in the same breath, I cheer for them because I would love noone to replace him more than David Hussey.
Loving Mumbai. Any team that has the most underrated Redhead in cricket - the Thorne - has to be in with some sort of chance to creep off the bottom of the table. Much has been made of their slow start to the IPL series - but it is a long series and you have to think they will bounce back in time.
I see no reason in future that you can't get an Australian based team into the IPL. All games would have to still be held in India, but with their love of the game, you could still imagine that the crowds would flock to see this.
The Auction system would still have to apply to this franchise for marquee players from around the world. But, like the Indian sides, the remaining half of the team would be filled with domestic players who didn't sell at Auction. You could still cobble together a bunch of guys like crowd pleasing Doug Bollinger, Pomersbach, 20-20 superstar in the making S.C.G. MacGill, and many others.
The key would be making the name as ludicrous as the Indian team names..
You could try a terrible T.V. show reference like the Knight Riders (The Bondi Baywatch)
a thinly veiled smoking propaganda reference like the Super Kings (The Penrith Winfield Blues)
or many others...
Let's make this happen Australia!!!
Leave ludicrous team names in the comments.
The IPL has shown just how stale the game in Australia has become.
The other odd thing that the IPL has shown me is just how boring the current Australian unit has become.
I cheer for any team against the Knight Riders because I am not a Ricky Ponting fan. But in the same breath, I cheer for them because I would love noone to replace him more than David Hussey.
Loving Mumbai. Any team that has the most underrated Redhead in cricket - the Thorne - has to be in with some sort of chance to creep off the bottom of the table. Much has been made of their slow start to the IPL series - but it is a long series and you have to think they will bounce back in time.
I see no reason in future that you can't get an Australian based team into the IPL. All games would have to still be held in India, but with their love of the game, you could still imagine that the crowds would flock to see this.
The Auction system would still have to apply to this franchise for marquee players from around the world. But, like the Indian sides, the remaining half of the team would be filled with domestic players who didn't sell at Auction. You could still cobble together a bunch of guys like crowd pleasing Doug Bollinger, Pomersbach, 20-20 superstar in the making S.C.G. MacGill, and many others.
The key would be making the name as ludicrous as the Indian team names..
You could try a terrible T.V. show reference like the Knight Riders (The Bondi Baywatch)
a thinly veiled smoking propaganda reference like the Super Kings (The Penrith Winfield Blues)
or many others...
Let's make this happen Australia!!!
Leave ludicrous team names in the comments.
Danny Buderus picked for Country and Newcastle..
There has been much in the press this week, largely coming from Brian Smith about Danny Buderus being picked for Country. Smith seems to find this unfair on his number 9. So unfair, that he has picked him to back up 24 hours later against the Dragons.
First things first. I am a Brian Smith fan. One only has to see the shambolic nature of the Eels this year, and the fact that the Knights are playing well above themselves to see who won the famous coach swap of 2006. And supporting his players in their quest for representative jerseys is par for the course for club coaches.
However, Smith's certainty - and the certainty of much of the media that Buderus is a walk-up starter for NSW this origin series is an interesting state of mind. If Robbie Farah was available, on form alone, Buderus would be the third best hooker in NSW. Without Robbie Farah, Buderus is still the second best available hooker in the state at the moment. The best?? The surprising Michael Ennis, whose origin claims must be seriously considered. If the Blues are indeed looking to get younger, and are indeed thinking about stripping away "incumbent" players who are not performing as well as their current rivals, then you can start talking long and hard about Buderus' place in the 17.
The incumbency debate seems like it will claim but one victim: Nathan Hindmarsh. With the same tenacity that the football media has clung to Buderus, it has pushed Hindmarsh in front of the Bus. And the man most willing to give Hindmarsh a nudge in front of that flying 400, is of course, Gus Gould. If Buderus gets his customary number 9 for the Blues and Hindmarsh is nowhere to be seen on origin night, the "picking players based on form" argument is a hollow one.
First things first. I am a Brian Smith fan. One only has to see the shambolic nature of the Eels this year, and the fact that the Knights are playing well above themselves to see who won the famous coach swap of 2006. And supporting his players in their quest for representative jerseys is par for the course for club coaches.
However, Smith's certainty - and the certainty of much of the media that Buderus is a walk-up starter for NSW this origin series is an interesting state of mind. If Robbie Farah was available, on form alone, Buderus would be the third best hooker in NSW. Without Robbie Farah, Buderus is still the second best available hooker in the state at the moment. The best?? The surprising Michael Ennis, whose origin claims must be seriously considered. If the Blues are indeed looking to get younger, and are indeed thinking about stripping away "incumbent" players who are not performing as well as their current rivals, then you can start talking long and hard about Buderus' place in the 17.
The incumbency debate seems like it will claim but one victim: Nathan Hindmarsh. With the same tenacity that the football media has clung to Buderus, it has pushed Hindmarsh in front of the Bus. And the man most willing to give Hindmarsh a nudge in front of that flying 400, is of course, Gus Gould. If Buderus gets his customary number 9 for the Blues and Hindmarsh is nowhere to be seen on origin night, the "picking players based on form" argument is a hollow one.
Mark Viduka: A musical tribute
To some, a great song is the capitulation of a lifetime of emotions, dreams and thoughts. Others, lose a bet and have the responsibility of penning a song that captures the brilliance of Mark Viduka. Although toying with the idea of an anthem - 'Advance Viduka Fair' I went for something with a little more beat, set to the tune "Come Together" by the Beatles. I was thinking about "Here Comes the Dukes" ala "Here Comes the Sun" by George Harrison, but you let me know what you think.
Mark Viduka
He come on strongly,
He come dribbling up quickly
He got oh-ah ball skills
He one ball player
He got skills down to his knees
Got to be Viduka,
He just do what he please
He wear no shoeshine,
He was built for football
He got golden slippers,
He shoots all the goals
He says 'I know you, you know me"
One thing I can tell you is you want to be him
Mark Viduka, right now, number one
His goal production,
He got midas touch,
He got bono singing,
He one keeper beater,
He's got girls down on their knees
Hold you in his gaze, yeah you can see where he's been
Mark Viduka, right now, number one
Mark Viduka, yeah
Mark Viduka, yeah
Mark Viduka, yeah
- Fade out -
Mark Viduka
He come on strongly,
He come dribbling up quickly
He got oh-ah ball skills
He one ball player
He got skills down to his knees
Got to be Viduka,
He just do what he please
He wear no shoeshine,
He was built for football
He got golden slippers,
He shoots all the goals
He says 'I know you, you know me"
One thing I can tell you is you want to be him
Mark Viduka, right now, number one
His goal production,
He got midas touch,
He got bono singing,
He one keeper beater,
He's got girls down on their knees
Hold you in his gaze, yeah you can see where he's been
Mark Viduka, right now, number one
Mark Viduka, yeah
Mark Viduka, yeah
Mark Viduka, yeah
- Fade out -
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Douchebag Of The Week...
The Captain's inaugural Douchebag Of The Week award goes to...Harbhajan Singh! Well that's a surprise I hear you all say. But the fact of the matter is that this guy needs to be put in his place. Had their careers crossed paths, Dennis Lillee would have taken this guy to the carpark and beaten the bejesus out of him. Crazy South African all rounder Brian McMillan would have come out all guns toting if some little turd of a man had of given him any lip. And Darren 'Boof' Lehmann would no doubt have called him very nasty names (but cunningly under his breath to avoid another suspension). Andrew Symonds should have cleaned him up when he had an excuse to.
Harbhajan has been banned for 11 matches which is effectively the rest of the IPL tournament given Mumbai's dreadful record so far. But is it really long enough for this obnoxious weed? It's clear that very few people like the man, even his own teammates now. He had already been banned for three Tests in Australia after making 'alleged' racial remarks to Symonds, only for the powers that be to let him off when they realised their balls were the size of peas. I don't think anyone for a second believes that Harbhajan was partaking in friendly, well-meaning banter with Symonds. At least this time there's a bit of hard ball being played out after this horrid tosser bitch slapped one of his Indian national teammates for no apparent reason.
Sure Sreesanth shouldn't have blubbered like a five year old girl. And sure the punishment in the instance seems about right. But I can't stand Harbhajan. He makes me not want to watch cricket and the next time he is charged for misconduct Captain Carnage will be leading the charge to see this wanker banned for life and representing cricket in the International Sporting Douchebag Of The Decade Awards.
Harbhajan has been banned for 11 matches which is effectively the rest of the IPL tournament given Mumbai's dreadful record so far. But is it really long enough for this obnoxious weed? It's clear that very few people like the man, even his own teammates now. He had already been banned for three Tests in Australia after making 'alleged' racial remarks to Symonds, only for the powers that be to let him off when they realised their balls were the size of peas. I don't think anyone for a second believes that Harbhajan was partaking in friendly, well-meaning banter with Symonds. At least this time there's a bit of hard ball being played out after this horrid tosser bitch slapped one of his Indian national teammates for no apparent reason.
Sure Sreesanth shouldn't have blubbered like a five year old girl. And sure the punishment in the instance seems about right. But I can't stand Harbhajan. He makes me not want to watch cricket and the next time he is charged for misconduct Captain Carnage will be leading the charge to see this wanker banned for life and representing cricket in the International Sporting Douchebag Of The Decade Awards.
WHAB Punishment Post: In Praise of the Bossinator.
A richly deserved punishment post for the Professor, having dropped his entire $100 over the weekend. Must be said that I came within a poofteenth of a $229 multi as Manly couldn't put the Bulldogs away by 13+. I blame Bani. Had his chance to stop a try and score a try that would have done it for me.
Anyway, to the punishment post. The Captain (who should be punished himself for dropping $78) has required me to write a glowing post in praise of Glen Boss. Ouch.
It makes sense to bet on Boss in the big races. It would seem that noone manages to gain himself more big rides than he. I really liked Triple honour for the Doncaster - however, Bossy on board made me look elsewhere. That is a dumb thing to do. Hence, why I deserve this. So, lets put down a first strength for Bossy - that is, his ability to pick out a fine horse for the big races.
A second strength is his ability to win the rides on horses that would obviously have a massive group of jockeys trying to negotiate rides on them. When Blake Shinn couldn't ride Sebring, there would have been a big group looking for that ride, but kudos to Bossy - he got the ride.
More often than not, he also puts these good horses where they need to be to win. As much as his whip waving and other shenanigans made me sick on Makybe Diva, it must be said that the horse was never beaten by a sloppy ride. Given that at least half of the field in the Melbourne cup run into some sort of trouble, the fact that Bossy didn't get into trouble in three straight Melbourne Cups is pretty good stuff.
And what about his 'carry on' when he wins?? It's what the kids want. It's what the commentators want. You ask most people on the street what they want if they go to the races and they say: 'I want Bossy to win, and then I want to watch him whoop it up for hours after the race.'
You can say that the Jockey is only as good as the horse under him, but you can say the same thing about that most boring of sports - motor racing. Do they give the formula one trophy to the car, the pit crew or the billion dollar owners??? No, they give it to Schuey. Glen Boss, you are the Schuey of horse racing. I will back you on the weekend if you are on board something I like. Just don't expect me to keep the TV on when you wave your whip and start talking.
Anyway, to the punishment post. The Captain (who should be punished himself for dropping $78) has required me to write a glowing post in praise of Glen Boss. Ouch.
It makes sense to bet on Boss in the big races. It would seem that noone manages to gain himself more big rides than he. I really liked Triple honour for the Doncaster - however, Bossy on board made me look elsewhere. That is a dumb thing to do. Hence, why I deserve this. So, lets put down a first strength for Bossy - that is, his ability to pick out a fine horse for the big races.
A second strength is his ability to win the rides on horses that would obviously have a massive group of jockeys trying to negotiate rides on them. When Blake Shinn couldn't ride Sebring, there would have been a big group looking for that ride, but kudos to Bossy - he got the ride.
More often than not, he also puts these good horses where they need to be to win. As much as his whip waving and other shenanigans made me sick on Makybe Diva, it must be said that the horse was never beaten by a sloppy ride. Given that at least half of the field in the Melbourne cup run into some sort of trouble, the fact that Bossy didn't get into trouble in three straight Melbourne Cups is pretty good stuff.
And what about his 'carry on' when he wins?? It's what the kids want. It's what the commentators want. You ask most people on the street what they want if they go to the races and they say: 'I want Bossy to win, and then I want to watch him whoop it up for hours after the race.'
You can say that the Jockey is only as good as the horse under him, but you can say the same thing about that most boring of sports - motor racing. Do they give the formula one trophy to the car, the pit crew or the billion dollar owners??? No, they give it to Schuey. Glen Boss, you are the Schuey of horse racing. I will back you on the weekend if you are on board something I like. Just don't expect me to keep the TV on when you wave your whip and start talking.
Monday, April 28, 2008
The weekend of sport, the Wallabies.. etc...
So the Centenary test team in leeague has been picked. I don't know about most of those viewing our blog (HI MUM!) but I don't care to an extraordinary degree. The tests in Rugby league are not the pinnacle of the game, and it is inferior to the Union regardless. What I will say is that the front row is disgraceful. Sure, the Kangaroos will win by 50, so there will be no need to worry about it too much but Webb and Kite?? Wow. Watching the Roast on Sunday morning, Phil Gould cam up with the quote of the ages (in terms of sounding like a spoiled wanker) 'Gallen and Bird wouldn't be even talked about as Kangaroo's if they weren't coached by Ricky Stuart.' Have these former sweethearts fallen out so badly??
A couple of weeks ago, former Wallabies Coach "Knuckles" Connolly discussed a wallabies team for the upcoming tri-nations. The most interesting thing about this was his candid thoughts that, the team that he picked was right on the money and that incoming Coach Robbie 'save us' Deans would have very little to do... Ladies and gentlemen, your first Knuckles apologist is: [drum roll]: KNUCKLES!!
Really, where does one start ringing the changes??? Knuckles real only change to the side that he picked was the front row. Which he tinkered with on a weekly basis. Week one: Dunning and Baxter... week two: lets try Blake and Shephardson... all the while, poor scrummagers like Sharpe and Chisholm sat behind these guys. First thought: If you are changing your front rowers on a weekly basis, and nothing is getting better, you have two possible causes:
a) The front rowers are all terrible scrumagers.
b) The seconds are not providing enough in the scrumaging.
Watching the super 14, an interesting pattern has emerged. The scrums are not getting screwed over. Not nearly as badly as the Wallaby scrum. Except the Brumbies... losers of an inordinate amount of their scrum ball. With a Wallaby Front row (at one stage or another) - Henderson and Shephardson and a wallaby lock - Chisholm. The Waratahs, with the much maligned Matt Dunning on the field have been Australia's best tight five in the Super 14. Dan Vickerman has been instrumental in this. When he has been on the field, Sekope Kepu has been a revelation also. The Reds and Force have been somewhere in the middle of the pack.
My tight five for the first test would be a front row including Kepu, Dunning, Blake? and Freier. For your locks, you could do far worse than some combination of Vickerman, Horwill and Hockings.
As an open memo to Deans, let me offer one piece of advice: If the scrum is going badly after a game, don't change your front three after one effort. Maybe look to the locks. This was not a feature of the Knuckles regime. The development of the Australian front row has suffered accordingly.
A more in depth look at a possible Wallabies team to follow.
As always, enjoy your rugby.
A couple of weeks ago, former Wallabies Coach "Knuckles" Connolly discussed a wallabies team for the upcoming tri-nations. The most interesting thing about this was his candid thoughts that, the team that he picked was right on the money and that incoming Coach Robbie 'save us' Deans would have very little to do... Ladies and gentlemen, your first Knuckles apologist is: [drum roll]: KNUCKLES!!
Really, where does one start ringing the changes??? Knuckles real only change to the side that he picked was the front row. Which he tinkered with on a weekly basis. Week one: Dunning and Baxter... week two: lets try Blake and Shephardson... all the while, poor scrummagers like Sharpe and Chisholm sat behind these guys. First thought: If you are changing your front rowers on a weekly basis, and nothing is getting better, you have two possible causes:
a) The front rowers are all terrible scrumagers.
b) The seconds are not providing enough in the scrumaging.
Watching the super 14, an interesting pattern has emerged. The scrums are not getting screwed over. Not nearly as badly as the Wallaby scrum. Except the Brumbies... losers of an inordinate amount of their scrum ball. With a Wallaby Front row (at one stage or another) - Henderson and Shephardson and a wallaby lock - Chisholm. The Waratahs, with the much maligned Matt Dunning on the field have been Australia's best tight five in the Super 14. Dan Vickerman has been instrumental in this. When he has been on the field, Sekope Kepu has been a revelation also. The Reds and Force have been somewhere in the middle of the pack.
My tight five for the first test would be a front row including Kepu, Dunning, Blake? and Freier. For your locks, you could do far worse than some combination of Vickerman, Horwill and Hockings.
As an open memo to Deans, let me offer one piece of advice: If the scrum is going badly after a game, don't change your front three after one effort. Maybe look to the locks. This was not a feature of the Knuckles regime. The development of the Australian front row has suffered accordingly.
A more in depth look at a possible Wallabies team to follow.
As always, enjoy your rugby.
WHAB's Resident Tipsters Appalling Effort
Of the multiple bets placed by our team of 'experts' only the Captain bagged a winner on the Wests Tigers. Not afraid to win ugly is the Captain. And it really should have been a bigger thrashing if not for Manchester City making Fulham look like Manchester United in the final 20 minutes of their match. So JB and the Professor will be on punishment post duty this week...
In hindsight I should have hired a couple of snipers to take out Triple Honour and Pinnacles and then I would have had the Doncaster trifecta. But not to worry, the Sydney Cup is just around the corner...
In hindsight I should have hired a couple of snipers to take out Triple Honour and Pinnacles and then I would have had the Doncaster trifecta. But not to worry, the Sydney Cup is just around the corner...
Saturday, April 26, 2008
What to do with my last $50
$10 on Carlton @2.15
$10 on Wests Tigers @ 2.25
$10 on the Cheetahs @2.70
$20 on Manchester City vs Fulham @ 1.90
Playing it safe, hopefully well up after the Donny...
$10 on Wests Tigers @ 2.25
$10 on the Cheetahs @2.70
$20 on Manchester City vs Fulham @ 1.90
Playing it safe, hopefully well up after the Donny...
Footy Show turns me on Margeret!
What a delightful frolic was the NRL’s Footy Show this week! All the elements of great entertainment were on show and the cast was to die for. Adding to the brilliant performances of the hosts was a cameo performance from Ray “Rabbits”
The evening began with a tribute to the great man Warren. The panel looked back on some of the finer and also more humorous moments of his illustrious career. The highlight was some old footage of
The program then moved on to a gripping interview with one of the most astute gentlemen in rugby league, Brad Fittler. A great coach already, Fittler provided us with much insight into the game as Phil Gould put to the big questions to his protege. The camera work during this chance rendezvous was divine; colour to black and white; black and white to colour; I watched on transfixed!
Maybe the show continued from this point but as Renee Zellweger once said “You had me at Hello Welcome to the Footy Show”. Comic genius! Good on you boys, keep it coming!
P.S Lady Luck has not the hotness her part requires. She needs to be at least three times hotter…
P.P.S I believe there was a smidgen of rugby league talk in the script. That’s Gold!
Friday, April 25, 2008
The Footy Show Under the Spotlight
Welcome to this weeks painful review of what surely has cost me more than I ever cared to bet with, the ANZAC special of the Footy Show. With its usual inept cast of part wannabe football analysts, part ass clowns, this was one hour of poorly produced, poorly executed, poorly scripted, eyeball fucking.
If its one thing these bandits of ass love to do more than rape, is to pillage the remains of respect this fair game has left. The heinous crime of pitching their disgrace of a show to the ANZAC day commemorations really shrivelled my ball sack. This surely was a sack tearing administration of obnoxious anecdotes that would have our diggers turning in their grave. The grand act of wheel-chairing old fart Rabbits in for the occasion pays no respect to the elderly, it does nothing more than add anguish to hurt.
The height of viewing pain was brought on by the black and white interview held with Brad Fitler. Father Gus Gould surely has touched many a young catholic man, but how can any one stand by and watch him swing from the balls of Fitler by his mouth. A true crime against humanity.
It was best that after sitting through a Gould interview, many were in too much shock to be aware of the painful cover of Cat (Yusuf)Stevens. But unfortunately too many would have recovered in time to endure the worst 5 minutes of television history - Lutsy harassing the Titans in his dick togs. If any one has the titans to win this weekend, be afraid, that shit can scare.
The shinning light of the show came in the form of the female football fan from the roosters. That girl was fucking hot, drop that average looking Kenny Sutcliffe love child who is the current lady luck and give holly the roosters fan a bikini.
Well what can I say, archaic broadcasting regulations enforces a certain amount of locally produced television each week, surely the ombudsman needs to start enforcing some base level of standards to exclude this deplorable act of intolerable cruelty that is the Footy Show.
If its one thing these bandits of ass love to do more than rape, is to pillage the remains of respect this fair game has left. The heinous crime of pitching their disgrace of a show to the ANZAC day commemorations really shrivelled my ball sack. This surely was a sack tearing administration of obnoxious anecdotes that would have our diggers turning in their grave. The grand act of wheel-chairing old fart Rabbits in for the occasion pays no respect to the elderly, it does nothing more than add anguish to hurt.
The height of viewing pain was brought on by the black and white interview held with Brad Fitler. Father Gus Gould surely has touched many a young catholic man, but how can any one stand by and watch him swing from the balls of Fitler by his mouth. A true crime against humanity.
It was best that after sitting through a Gould interview, many were in too much shock to be aware of the painful cover of Cat (Yusuf)Stevens. But unfortunately too many would have recovered in time to endure the worst 5 minutes of television history - Lutsy harassing the Titans in his dick togs. If any one has the titans to win this weekend, be afraid, that shit can scare.
The shinning light of the show came in the form of the female football fan from the roosters. That girl was fucking hot, drop that average looking Kenny Sutcliffe love child who is the current lady luck and give holly the roosters fan a bikini.
Well what can I say, archaic broadcasting regulations enforces a certain amount of locally produced television each week, surely the ombudsman needs to start enforcing some base level of standards to exclude this deplorable act of intolerable cruelty that is the Footy Show.
Professor's $50
That's just chump change to the Professor after last weekends big win. I turned $100 into $196 in spite of dropping $50 of that on a futile slipper.
Anyway, $50 for the Doncaster. Tough race. $3/$5 on Falaise and Marching, $4/$4 on Gallant Tess and Valedictum.
$18 on the snorkel of Snipers Bullet.
That's it. Nice and simple.
Done.
Anyway, $50 for the Doncaster. Tough race. $3/$5 on Falaise and Marching, $4/$4 on Gallant Tess and Valedictum.
$18 on the snorkel of Snipers Bullet.
That's it. Nice and simple.
Done.
Best be on these in the Donny with yer last fitty me hearties...
$20 win Snipers Bullet
$16 win Serious Speed
$10 win Casino Prince
$2 e/w on Falaise
I love yer Forensics but I've only $50 to play with 'ere and yer not the best o' value. Will use some o' me own personal treasure for yer darlin'!
$16 win Serious Speed
$10 win Casino Prince
$2 e/w on Falaise
I love yer Forensics but I've only $50 to play with 'ere and yer not the best o' value. Will use some o' me own personal treasure for yer darlin'!
Your WHAB Doncaster Preview!!!
Well we have a feature race at Randwick. How can you find Randwick? Well, it is the only racing venue in Sydney that doesn't smell like White Ox tobacco, desperation and shame. Thankfully they are still going to be able to hold the Doncaster there this year. Even though the Race course is being used for some sort of World Youth Day shenanigans. Randwick is soon to be home to this guy:
So Catholic clergy and kids... Randwick will soon be home to more inappropriate man/boy love than an annual scouting jamboree and the Phil Gould home for wayward boys combined. Scary.
But, I digress. It's Doncaster time. The Doncaster looks to be an historically weak field this year. John O'Shea and Russ Macdonald cited "Sand in our Vagina's" and elected to let superstars Weekend Hussler and Racing to Win have the day off. Mentality Sniper's Bullet and Casino Prince will be at the top of your weight board.
We at WHAB will give you detailed descriptions of the chances of all of your Doncaster hopefuls in the following preview. Hopeful is a pretty apt description of most of these guys, as you are about to find out.
A word to the punter out there, an honour roll of Doncaster winners over the last 10 years is a pretty impressive bunch. So don't get too hung up on weights - the winner is usually either a) A superstar in the making (Racing to Win, Private Steer, Grand Armee) or b) one of your top weights that have done something (Haradasun). Sometimes Patezza types surprise you though...
2007 - Haradasun 2006 - Racing To Win 2005 - Patezza 2004 - Private Steer 2003 - Grand Armee 2002 - Sunline
2001 - Assertive Lad 2000 - Over 1999 - Sunline 1998 - Catalan Opening 1997 - Secret Savings 1996 - Sprint By
Interesting Questions: How much would Weekend Hussler have Turkey Slapped this field? Or Racing to Win? How the hell did Bobadah miss a start in this shite field? Will I go to Randwick specifically to award Glen Boss his plaque, kick in the scrotum and years supply of Spam as the inaugural inductee into the WHAB Schrutebag Hall of Fame.
[Professors Note: As of Thursday morning, it is still raining... keep in mind that the track will be no better than slow]
Captain Carnage: The only male two time Group 1 winner in the field has been weighted accordingly. Fellow male Group 1 winners Sniper's Bullet, Casino Prince and Valedictum all come in with considerably less weight but Mentality has shown great consistency at Group 1 level and it's hard to argue with the 57.5kg. However, the prospect of a wet track looks likely to dash his winning hopes as even Peter Snowden has admitted he needs it dry.
Professor Chaos: Well, here is your perfect example of why you can't just look at a horses statistics in the wet and say "this guy loves the wet." Looking with a bit of detail into this guy's wet form shows that his last three starts on slow/heavy ground are a 3 Length loss to !!Falaise!! a 5 length loss to Racing to Win and his pantsing on that ground on Saturday. If the track dries out, the $14 is a wonderful price. On Slow/Heavy ground not a chance. The Weight is not a big concern in this field. Mentality by rights should always give 5 kg plus to most of these and still win. To Sum up: On good/dead ground, here is your top pick. On Slow/Heavy ground I wouldn't take this guy at $50:1.
JB: Has been dueling it out with some of the top horses in Australia. That sort of prep will see this horse meaner and with 'blood on his teeth' come Saturday. Get on and get on early.
Professor Chaos: Has it really done nearly enough to deserve the fourth highest weight in this field??? It is really a hard one to have, with a defeat on the dry at the hands of Falaise in Newcastle and then losing its pants to All Silent last start.
Captain Carnage: I'm not a handicapper but I can't follow how a horse who has a career best Group 2 victory over 1200m comes in with the same weight as a Group 1 winner over a mile (again, see Casino Prince) in a Doncaster. Forget he ran last time. Drew wide and was trapped wide. Paul Cave has said he didn't really want to run the horse that day with that gate but didn't want to run him the week before the Doncaster. My query with him is his ability to run a strong mile. He is yet to win beyond 1200m although he did hit the line nicely in the 1400m Newcastle Newmarket. It takes a tough horse to win a race of this stature and I'm not convinced it's German Chocolate but he is definitely not the worst. Wet form okay and reuniting with Zac Purton a plus. A maybe for multiples.
JB: Leave it for your girlfriend to pick - you know she will
Professor Chaos: Followed up two sensational runs with a real head turner in its last start. Maybe it is not wanting more than a mile this time in. Maybe, as the captain suggested it wants the paddock. At $26, I would be quite inclined take the first explanation and throw a few $$$ each way on this guy.
Captain Carnage: One would suggest that he has had enough for now and would love nothing more than to see those green rolling pastures. Comes in only 1kg less than Chipping Norton winner Casino Prince and there are quite a few others with good lead-up form below him in the weights. Has talent but I think he'll be making the most of his ability a year or two from now. And as a general rule I cannot back a horse with such a dreadful run prior . Pass.
JB: Marching is a horse you are either willing to take a bet on at $26 or question the quality of the race if it gets up. In my opinion, don't expect it to do more than make up the numbers.
8 VALEDICTUM Steven King 13 (53.5)
Current Price: $41
Captain Carnage: This one could be a knockout chance. Just it's sixth start but looks to be on the up; comparable somewhat to Sniper's Bullet before he won the Stradbroke. Inexperienced and first time at at what will be a tough mile given the conditions. Barrier 15 not ideal for him in my opinion. He might find a bit of trouble in such a big field which is never good for a lightly raced horse. Seems to enjoy the wet conditions and off an impressive last start win after a tardy start. I just think he might peak on his run here and a repeat effort at the gates will see he finish in no man's land but looks like something at reasonable odds to throw into your multiples. For breeding enthusiasts, he's a half brother to 2004 Doncaster winner Private Steer. It was all G.Boss that day wasn't it Professor?!
JB: Pass
So Catholic clergy and kids... Randwick will soon be home to more inappropriate man/boy love than an annual scouting jamboree and the Phil Gould home for wayward boys combined. Scary.
But, I digress. It's Doncaster time. The Doncaster looks to be an historically weak field this year. John O'Shea and Russ Macdonald cited "Sand in our Vagina's" and elected to let superstars Weekend Hussler and Racing to Win have the day off. Mentality Sniper's Bullet and Casino Prince will be at the top of your weight board.
We at WHAB will give you detailed descriptions of the chances of all of your Doncaster hopefuls in the following preview. Hopeful is a pretty apt description of most of these guys, as you are about to find out.
A word to the punter out there, an honour roll of Doncaster winners over the last 10 years is a pretty impressive bunch. So don't get too hung up on weights - the winner is usually either a) A superstar in the making (Racing to Win, Private Steer, Grand Armee) or b) one of your top weights that have done something (Haradasun). Sometimes Patezza types surprise you though...
2007 - Haradasun 2006 - Racing To Win 2005 - Patezza 2004 - Private Steer 2003 - Grand Armee 2002 - Sunline
2001 - Assertive Lad 2000 - Over 1999 - Sunline 1998 - Catalan Opening 1997 - Secret Savings 1996 - Sprint By
Interesting Questions: How much would Weekend Hussler have Turkey Slapped this field? Or Racing to Win? How the hell did Bobadah miss a start in this shite field? Will I go to Randwick specifically to award Glen Boss his plaque, kick in the scrotum and years supply of Spam as the inaugural inductee into the WHAB Schrutebag Hall of Fame.
[Professors Note: As of Thursday morning, it is still raining... keep in mind that the track will be no better than slow]
1 MENTALITY Darren Beadman 14 (57.5)
Current Price: $14Captain Carnage: The only male two time Group 1 winner in the field has been weighted accordingly. Fellow male Group 1 winners Sniper's Bullet, Casino Prince and Valedictum all come in with considerably less weight but Mentality has shown great consistency at Group 1 level and it's hard to argue with the 57.5kg. However, the prospect of a wet track looks likely to dash his winning hopes as even Peter Snowden has admitted he needs it dry.
Professor Chaos: Well, here is your perfect example of why you can't just look at a horses statistics in the wet and say "this guy loves the wet." Looking with a bit of detail into this guy's wet form shows that his last three starts on slow/heavy ground are a 3 Length loss to !!Falaise!! a 5 length loss to Racing to Win and his pantsing on that ground on Saturday. If the track dries out, the $14 is a wonderful price. On Slow/Heavy ground not a chance. The Weight is not a big concern in this field. Mentality by rights should always give 5 kg plus to most of these and still win. To Sum up: On good/dead ground, here is your top pick. On Slow/Heavy ground I wouldn't take this guy at $50:1.
JB: A no go on the slow - simple enough
2 SNIPER'S BULLET Hugh Bowman 16 (55.5)
Current Price: $14
Professor Chaos: May have a decent chance in this field. Some pretty good runs this time in, 55.5 is a bit of relief for a horse that is used to lugging quite a bit more around. Was favourite last start at Canterbury, and didn't appear to love the track. Wet form is great - Stradbroke win over GOLD EDITION came on a slow track. A lot to like.
Captain Carnage: Not sure how a Stradbroke Hcp victory with 50.5kg's costs you 1 kg more than a Chipping Norton win at weight for age (see Casino Prince). Anyhow, this fellow has to be a big chance with the likelihood of a wet track. He has three wins and two placings on ground rated dead or worse and looks to have the natural ability to be a possible winner here. The Stradbroke win was against super mare Gold Edition and I can't leave him out of my Doncaster multiples. His form in his lead-up races looks a bit patchy albeit solid and in good company but I have the feeling Tracey Bartley has left a fair bit of improvement in him. "Fresh legs on the scene" was how he put it on Tuesday. I remember some guy I'd barely heard of telling me a long-winded tale about what Sniper's Bullet was going to do in the Stradbroke and I didn't listen to a word. I won't underestimate that guy who is now a Group 1-winning trainer again. The Bullet will be trained right up for this and is great value at $14. Drawn wide but gets back anyway. Big chance.
JB: Alot to like about this horse, plenty of class. Unable to get the run against Casino Prince in the Norton, but no Tuesday Joy in this one. Has some form on what we can expect this track to be.
Professor Chaos: I had a little piece of the bullet that day... and is Tracey a boys name now???
3 CASINO PRINCE Damien Oliver 5 (54.5)
Current Price: $8Professor Chaos: His last crack at the Randwick mile in the Chipping Norton was a meritorious run. He beat Tuesday Joy which will jump out at a lot of people, though it must be remembered that the mile doesn't really suit Tuesday Joy. Not a mudlark by any stretch. Think that the $8 is tight.
Captain Carnage: In career best form. A nice warm up for this last week, beaten only by Weekend Hussler and Racing To Win on heavy going. That was after winning his first Group 1 at 1600m on a dead track. Will run out the mile stronger than most in the field and is drawn to perfection. You'll probably note that by comparison with other starters he is the most nicely weighted horse in the field. One of the main threats.JB: Has been dueling it out with some of the top horses in Australia. That sort of prep will see this horse meaner and with 'blood on his teeth' come Saturday. Get on and get on early.
4 GERMAN CHOCOLATE Zac Purton 12 (54.5)
Current Price: $41Professor Chaos: Has it really done nearly enough to deserve the fourth highest weight in this field??? It is really a hard one to have, with a defeat on the dry at the hands of Falaise in Newcastle and then losing its pants to All Silent last start.
Captain Carnage: I'm not a handicapper but I can't follow how a horse who has a career best Group 2 victory over 1200m comes in with the same weight as a Group 1 winner over a mile (again, see Casino Prince) in a Doncaster. Forget he ran last time. Drew wide and was trapped wide. Paul Cave has said he didn't really want to run the horse that day with that gate but didn't want to run him the week before the Doncaster. My query with him is his ability to run a strong mile. He is yet to win beyond 1200m although he did hit the line nicely in the 1400m Newcastle Newmarket. It takes a tough horse to win a race of this stature and I'm not convinced it's German Chocolate but he is definitely not the worst. Wet form okay and reuniting with Zac Purton a plus. A maybe for multiples.
JB: Leave it for your girlfriend to pick - you know she will
5 MEGATIC Jay Ford 10 (54)
Current Price: $26
Professor Chaos: Probably wants a track no worse than dead. He is unlikely to see that, but if the weather improves over the next few days, I will revisit this one as it could be a real knockout chance.
Captain Carnage: Megatic, Group 1 winner in Perth - 54kg. Casino Prince, Group 1 Chipping Norton winner - 54.5kg. That sounds fair doesn't it? The best horse Megatic has beaten is El Presidente. Casino Prince rolled Tuesday Joy. Not really in the same league at this point in time I would have thought. Megatic is thus very poorly weighted, has no wet form and was comprehensively beaten by Serious Speed in the Hobartville. Can't have him.
JB: On first glance, you have a horse that may not like the track, may not like the prevailing conditions and may not like being in a field with some of these horses. Too much of a long bow, before I see this as too much of a threat.
6 ESKIMO QUEEN Mark Zahra 6 (52.5) + 1
Current Price: $8
Professor Chaos: Maybe this girl will be entered into a hurdles race next. Or maybe throw a chariot on its back. Seriously versatile horse that is probably a group 2+ horse anywhere from 1400 - 3200 meters. Will always be competitive but will often find one better. Charmed run in the Coolmore on the weekend. And was in this bloggers opinion the THIRD best run in that race. So if you don't like the Coolmore form to begin with, you should be looking elsewhere. PARTICULARLY AT $8.
Captain Carnage: A moody mare, her race record reflects that. No doubt a quality horse on her day as she showed in the Coolmore but the worry has to be that her days are few and far between. Was sent out second favourite in the Caulfield Cup last year but had a hissy fit in the barriers and was scratched. Along with Mentality, she is the only other runner to have won two Group 1 races. One was last week. The other was the Queensland Oaks in 2006 and I don't recall her winning another race in that period of nearly two years. Obviously seemed to revel in the conditions last week but the $8 seems a bit too skinny for a horse who is "like a box of chocolates" according to leading form analyst F. Gump.
JB: Drawn well, good enough on the day to win this. Track conditions won't bother, will be lookinig to back it.
7 MARCHING Corey Brown 9 (53.5)
Current Price: $26Professor Chaos: Followed up two sensational runs with a real head turner in its last start. Maybe it is not wanting more than a mile this time in. Maybe, as the captain suggested it wants the paddock. At $26, I would be quite inclined take the first explanation and throw a few $$$ each way on this guy.
Captain Carnage: One would suggest that he has had enough for now and would love nothing more than to see those green rolling pastures. Comes in only 1kg less than Chipping Norton winner Casino Prince and there are quite a few others with good lead-up form below him in the weights. Has talent but I think he'll be making the most of his ability a year or two from now. And as a general rule I cannot back a horse with such a dreadful run prior . Pass.
JB: Marching is a horse you are either willing to take a bet on at $26 or question the quality of the race if it gets up. In my opinion, don't expect it to do more than make up the numbers.
8 VALEDICTUM Steven King 13 (53.5)
Current Price: $41
Professor Chaos: Steady improver this prep. Hadn't won for a long time until last start and if the weather stays ugly, this one has a punchers chance at least.
Captain Carnage: Old stager who maybe a year or two ago would have been a real live chance to win a Doncaster. I seriously doubt our winner on Saturday will have come out of the Royal Parma. He'll enjoy the conditions and despite a moderate looking record at the mile will be running on. I'm sure there were plenty of fourths and fifths in those unplaced runs at this distance. Something to beef up your first four maybe but doubt he'll look the winner at any stage.
JB: Plenty to suggest this horse can place, if your wearing your wellingtons to the track then get something about Valedictum. Would prefer Beadman on board who is willing to thrash the horse within inches of its life to plunge at the line.
9 ALL SILENT Peter Robl 15 (53)
Current Price: $17Captain Carnage: This one could be a knockout chance. Just it's sixth start but looks to be on the up; comparable somewhat to Sniper's Bullet before he won the Stradbroke. Inexperienced and first time at at what will be a tough mile given the conditions. Barrier 15 not ideal for him in my opinion. He might find a bit of trouble in such a big field which is never good for a lightly raced horse. Seems to enjoy the wet conditions and off an impressive last start win after a tardy start. I just think he might peak on his run here and a repeat effort at the gates will see he finish in no man's land but looks like something at reasonable odds to throw into your multiples. For breeding enthusiasts, he's a half brother to 2004 Doncaster winner Private Steer. It was all G.Boss that day wasn't it Professor?!
Professor Chaos: Going for the Randwick mile at just his 6th start and has been weighted quite harshly based on that fact. Will give Friday Creek a 3 kilogram weight swing on that Ajax win which is a worry. He could well be a horse on the up though. Seems to appreciate some give in the ground and could well be a knockout chance here. The gate doesn't help and the handicapper hasn't done him any favours either.
JB: Has been nicely preped for this race, but question whether it has enough pace about it to win this one. Not for me at $17
10 FALAISE Josh Parr (a) 11 (53)
Current Price: $51
Professor Chaos: Part Horse, Part Duck, part potential Cash-cow. It's a Horduckow! If it doesn't dry out over the week, Catch a ride on the Falaise cash cow express all the way to lap dance station. Has been in real eye-catching form this prep as well, up until that run in the Ajax. Catch a ride people!!! [Professor's note. I just caught a ride $5/$5 @$71's. ALL ABOARD!!]
Chairman Kaga:
If memory serves, the animal-husbandry loving folks in Charleville breed Hordockuw for their annual fair. A friend of mine from the village, JB says: 'the meat is not particularly good, quite dry, however there is a component of it that we prize above all others.' To summarize, when cooking Horduckow, eat only the cock.
Captain Carnage: With the exception of his last run, his form is very good. Likes the wet but ironically that may count against him as there must surely be a query on him at the trip. Strangely, he can't find his footing on a dead track but appears to enjoy genuine wet tracks. Has the look of a 1400m horse. The last run would bother me if he was on the first few lines of betting as a possible reason for his Ajax failure could have been the hardness of the track when he won at Newcastle. At the odds, certainly worth raiding your piggy bank.
JB: Listening to the Professor, you would by now have a little something on all but about two horses. Forget about any other rubbish place bet he's told you and save your shrapnel betting for a place bet on this one.
11 FRIDAY CREEK Glyn Schofield 4 (53)
Current Price: $23
Captain Carnage: Seems a nice type but not a Group 1 winning type. Has always been thereabouts in Group 2's and 3's and meets All Silent 3kg better than in the Ajax. A query to run out the mile and also in the going but has some chance to be in the first few. Not one I was looking to back and now that he has become the latest horse to be bought out by David Hayes on the eve of a Group 1 after another trainer has done all the groundwork I am definitely not interested. Does Hayes have a soul? How can he possibly get any satisfaction if this horse wins?Professor Chaos: The handicapper forgot about this one in the Professor's learned opinion. It has never been presented on worse than dead ground which is the only query.
JB: Had a better run in the Ajax then Falaise and has drawn a much sweeter barrier. That explains the difference in pricing but question its ability and the risk/return relationship on this one.
12 JUST MAMBO Tye Angland (a) 8 (53)
Current Price: $21
Professor Chaos: Yet another horse that got towelled right up by All Silent in the Ajax. Last run in the slop was ridiculously full of merit - a fighting 1.4 L behind Sydney's superstar horse, Racing to Win. Last two starts throw out some big alarm bells though. A tough one to measure up.
Captain Carnage: Will appreciate the wet but his last run was far from good and he doesn't look a strong miler. The fourth to Racing To Win was a game run but I think he caught them napping at the top of the straight. He was also was beaten in that race by Falaise making the differences in their prices hard to fathom. The $21 must have been posted by a Brisbane bookmaker. Stick to the tote on this one if he's your cup of tea.
JB: Won't hurt this horse to have the sting taken out of the ground. Will be worth a second look when doing your multiples.
13 MOLOTOV Craig Williams 22 (53)
Current Price: $151
Professor Chaos: I love a horse at big odds a lot more than most, but there aren't a lot of selling points here.. PASS. If you want the TOV, you can have the TOV. Just don't say it was my idea.
Captain Carnage: One look at the above honour roll has me confident that we won't be seeing Molotov added to it. Some of his Melbourne runs are very good but I think that's where he's at his best; in Melbourne. Not raced on anything worse than dead. Another one whose last run was awful. Has also been bought out by Hayes. The guy will do anything to make sure he has at least a quarter of every Group 1 field. Spare me.
JB: Pass
14 FORENSICS Danny Nikolic 17 (52.5)
Current Price: $6
Professor Chaos: I thought as a three year old filly, Forensics would be entitled to some ridiculous 49/50kg. At 52.5, She has the same weight on her back as Superstar in the making Pinnacles. Has had a great Autumn, and looks to be the class here. Barrier 17 is a knock. And surprisingly enough, I think that the weight could be as well.
Captain Carnage: If the track was dead or better, I would have her as my number one pick. I've been on her for her three wins this time in; each a barnstorming finish which leaves me relatively unconcerned with her barrier. There must be the slightest of doubts however of her prospects at 1600m on a bog track. Untried on slow and heavy and perhaps in such arduous conditions at the trip her sprint finish may not be as explosive. You get the feeling watching her race though that she's bombproof and it would be a brave man to leave her out of the reckoning. Hope she runs well because she's a pleasure to watch.
JB:Enough to make you think this horse can do it, enough to second guess your investment on this horse. Will be leaving behind come time to put my money where my mouth is.
15 GALLANT TESS Jeff Lloyd 2 (52.5)
Current Price: $26
Professor Chaos: Your BEST run in the Coolmore on the weekend. Three wide the trip, didn't seem to LOVE the ground, and punched on pretty well. Great draw this time, will make its own luck. Question is whether you like the Coolmore form. If you do, snap up the $26. If you don't, then probably snap up a little less of the $26.
Captain Carnage: Your best performance in the Coolmore but unfortunately a three wide trip in the mud one week before a Doncaster is not the ideal preparation. If she has recovered sufficiently she could be right in this. The form is good; nice win first up and carried 2.5kg more than Forensics while jumping from 1200m to 1550m second up for a 3.7L defeat. With the run last week I'd need a little more than $26. If she blows out in the betting I'll be having a nibble.
JB: Inside barriers are never too good on a deteriorating track. You can't bet on everything and will leave out, doesn't mean you should.
16 HOT DANISH Tim Clark 1 (52.5)
Current Price: $6.50
Professor Chaos: Your real burning question here is, "how much do you rate the Coolmore form??" Gets a lot of weight back on the other entrants from that race, particularly Eskimo Queen. Was ridden up front which probably was a poor choice. Fair price at $6.50 but you have to ask what this girl has beaten at this stage. Wouldn't shock to see it salute, but not willing to snap up $6.50.
Captain Carnage: This is a nice horse who was a sitting duck in the Coolmore. She's beaten some solid performers, no world beaters but you have to consider that she's been topweight for all of those races. Mile and track condition look to pose no problems. I prefer the runs of Forensics over those of the Danish but that is just personal opinion. You can only take one horse at that price and I will be taking Forensics over her if I lean towards the favourites but that's not knocking her at all. She's a great chance.
JB: At $6.50 you won't see me giving you the green light to put your money on it.
17 PINNACLES 21 (52.5)
Current Price: $71
Professor Chaos: Not going nearly as badly as I thought when I saw it in this field. The only knock that I can find is that it will probably not go the 1600.
Captain Carnage: An unusual preparation for a Doncaster and one that I can't see being decisive on Saturday. Looks to enjoy the slop but barrier 21, 1600m and his first time the Sydney way look to be big question marks. Again I cast my eye over that honour roll...
JB: On a track you can expect to have seen better days, starting from barrier 21, and untried at this distance, you will see $71 blow out. Don't expect this melbourne horse to do much on the day.
18 THESEO Blake Shinn 18 (52.5)
Current Price: $41
Professor Chaos: Handy horse that could pop up in the first four. Been going consistently but may not quite have the class. But, then again, you could say that about all bar four or five of these.
Captain Carnage: Sound lead up form and can finish off his races. Doesn't look to be at completely at home in the wet however. Not sold on Royal Parma form at all so will probably leave this one out but wouldn't surprise with a bold showing.
JB: Would like to have seen a better barrier draw, still, worth a place bet at $41.
19 SERIOUS SPEED Craig Newitt 19 (52)
Current Price: $13
Professor Chaos: Drew barrier 19, which is a big worry. Will be starting out the front of the actual Doncaster hotel. Run by amateurs that place. Sponsor a rugby club and then pull out after one week because of a bunch of unavoidable glass throwing incidents. "They're a BUNCH OF FUCKING AMATEURS!". I digress, but they're amateurs... back to Serious Speed. Well weighted, classy galloper in form at the right time. Was well keen until the barrier draw, now will look elsewhere. Untried on worse than Dead.
Captain Carnage: I really like this horse. The barrier is a big problem for her so she'll obviously need a bit of luck but she has a blistering finish. I'm prepared to risk her with the barrier and the heavy track because I think she has a big future and can definitely win this race. She's come back in terrific order after an Oaks preparation last Spring and the distance is of no concern. Hopefully Craig Newitt, who likes to whack away , remembers the words of in-form trainer Leon MacDonald "SHE DOES NOT LIKE TO BE WHIPPED!"
JB: Not going to be this horses race. Leave it alone.
20 TRIPLE HONOUR Glen Boss (a) 7 (51)
Current Price: $12
Professor Chaos: Oh Bossy. How I love you Bossy. You found Makybe Diva outside the glue factory sometime in September 2003 and you said to Lee Freedman, "I think I can make a racehorse out of this girl." The rest is history, as they say. Three Melbourne cups where you took a rubbish horse and made her 'Something special.' Could you do the same here Bossy??? Australia hopes so. Bruce McAveny hopes so. We here at WHAB hope so. I hadn't heard much about this horse before now, but that $12 seems a juicy price for a horse ridden by the peoples champion. By the way (a) above, stands not for the typical apprentice, but (a)ssclown. Anyway, Triple Honour. Goes well on the mud, Almost beat the Hussler. Don't want to bet on it but I just might.
Captain Carnage: Yes, a nice run behind the Hussler and also not as bad a run in the Hobartville considering he meets Serious Speed 2.5kg better. A good lightweight chance but my concern is that he has won three races first up and one second up and this will be his fifth run this campaign. My thinking is that perhaps he is not seasoned enough to win this race with those runs under his belt. A good chance but I prefer Serious Speed to this guy.
JB: Nice ride behind Weekend Hussler, look to the market for more guidance.
21 GOD'S HAND (1st Emerg) 20 (52.5)
Current Price: $151
Professor Chaos: Coming from that 'All Silent' formline that is nigh on impossible to line up with the higher quality formlines. If it gets a start, I don't really know what to make of it. Cummings trained, so you know that one of the fucking amateurs in the Courier Mail/Daily Telegraph will be all over it.
Captain Carnage: It's taken a whole day to do this so hopefully this one doesn't get a start!
JB: Will leave alone at this stage
22 FIGHTING FUND (2nd Emerg) Kathy O'Hara 3 (52.5)
Current Price: $101
Professor Chaos: This is a top roughy if it gets into the field. Form around Bobadah a nice run behind Racing to Win... Doubt it will run, which is a shame. It is better than at least 5/6 of the ones that will.
Captain Carnage: It's taken a whole day to do this so hopefully this one doesn't get a start!
JB: Unlikely starter
23 MR UBIQUITOUS (3rd Emerg) 23 (52.5)
Current Price: $101
Professor Chaos: You know what is actually Ubiquitous? This horse stealing a run from a far better chance in a big race. Bobadah was a chance to turkey slap this bunch. You sir, are not.
Captain Carnage: It's taken a whole day to do this so hopefully this one doesn't get a start!
JB: Unlikely starter
This Is Your Captain Speaking:
1. Sniper's Bullet
2.Serious Speed
3. Forensics
4. Casino Prince
Best Roughie: Falaise
This is ground control to major punter:
Casino Prince
Eskimo Queen
Value bets on Theseo and Falaise
Professor says:
Tough, tough race. I won't bother with my run-on or on-pace stuff today. It's just too open. All I will suggest is that I think the races value is in the form of:
Snipers Bullet
Gallant Tess
Valedictum
Triple Honour
Falaise
$50 for Sport now!
Alright, time to get the good oil from the professor for the weekends sport. I said it would take BRASS BALLS to come back from the brink, and I was correct.
So what do I like this weekend???
The Waratahs should be too strong for the Sharks at home. However, the wet weather leads one to believe it will be a tight contest. So the $3 for the Waratahs by 1-12 looks golden. $20 on that.
Let's look at a nice juicy league multi.
Manly should pump the Dogs at home this weekend. Melbourne don't look like losing for a while. The Gold Coast look far too strong for the Warriors at home. And the Sharks bubble has burst....
Manly 13+ - Melbourne - Gold Coast 13+ - Tigers.
That big boy is paying a whopping $25.64, and I will have a $10 slice of that action.
The Navy Blues know what it takes to win again! BRASS BALLS!!! So I will take them to win in Adelaide by 1-24 at a price of $3.80. Have a $10 investment there.
Finally, some shits and giggles IPL Style. I'll take $10 on the Mumbai Indians (Ha!) @ $2.
So what do I like this weekend???
The Waratahs should be too strong for the Sharks at home. However, the wet weather leads one to believe it will be a tight contest. So the $3 for the Waratahs by 1-12 looks golden. $20 on that.
Let's look at a nice juicy league multi.
Manly should pump the Dogs at home this weekend. Melbourne don't look like losing for a while. The Gold Coast look far too strong for the Warriors at home. And the Sharks bubble has burst....
Manly 13+ - Melbourne - Gold Coast 13+ - Tigers.
That big boy is paying a whopping $25.64, and I will have a $10 slice of that action.
The Navy Blues know what it takes to win again! BRASS BALLS!!! So I will take them to win in Adelaide by 1-24 at a price of $3.80. Have a $10 investment there.
Finally, some shits and giggles IPL Style. I'll take $10 on the Mumbai Indians (Ha!) @ $2.
Last $50 - better turn it into something of use
Well, I made you some money, sure not enough to cover the bets, but how many times do I have to cover your ass. Not to fear for this week I have something special for you: MULTI-MADNESS!!
Mother of all Multis:
Broncos/Rabitohs(1.21), Titans/Warriors(1.45), Bulldogs/West Coast(1.25), Geelong/Fremantle(1.18), Brisbane/Melbourne(1.10), Manchester City/Fulham(1.87), Arsenal/Derby(1.27), Portsmouth half-ball/Blackburn(1.29), Newcastle half-ball/West Ham(1.52). Paying $13.26, lets put $10 on it.
NRL
$10 on the multi Cowboys/Storm(2.15) and Manly to beat the Bulldogs by less than 13(3.00)total of $6.45
$10 on the Sharks to beat the Tigers by less than 13 paying $3.15
EPL
$10 on a the risky multi comprising a draw between Manchester United v Chelsea(3.20), Bolton to draw or do better against Tottenham($1.85)and Liverpool to beat Birmingham City(2.45) paying a total $14.50
AFL
Well I'm thinking I need more reason to hate Richmond, so I will take them to beat Hawthorn by less than 40(5.00) and to make it interesting let's combine with St Kilda to beat Port Adelaide by less than 40($2.85) for $14.25, a nice return for my last $10.
Plenty here for you to sort out, take your time, don't be rude, but whatever you do, don't let me catch you with your girlfriend.
Mother of all Multis:
Broncos/Rabitohs(1.21), Titans/Warriors(1.45), Bulldogs/West Coast(1.25), Geelong/Fremantle(1.18), Brisbane/Melbourne(1.10), Manchester City/Fulham(1.87), Arsenal/Derby(1.27), Portsmouth half-ball/Blackburn(1.29), Newcastle half-ball/West Ham(1.52). Paying $13.26, lets put $10 on it.
NRL
$10 on the multi Cowboys/Storm(2.15) and Manly to beat the Bulldogs by less than 13(3.00)total of $6.45
$10 on the Sharks to beat the Tigers by less than 13 paying $3.15
EPL
$10 on a the risky multi comprising a draw between Manchester United v Chelsea(3.20), Bolton to draw or do better against Tottenham($1.85)and Liverpool to beat Birmingham City(2.45) paying a total $14.50
AFL
Well I'm thinking I need more reason to hate Richmond, so I will take them to beat Hawthorn by less than 40(5.00) and to make it interesting let's combine with St Kilda to beat Port Adelaide by less than 40($2.85) for $14.25, a nice return for my last $10.
Plenty here for you to sort out, take your time, don't be rude, but whatever you do, don't let me catch you with your girlfriend.
JB Doncaster: money in the bank
Will be looking more to pick the winner and make some on the side with my $50 on this race. Plenty of horses are there abouts with this one and should make for an interesting enough race with some half decent odds. So place your bets as follows:
$10 on the nose CASINO PRINCE
$10 on the nose ESKIMO QUEEN
$8 place bet on FALAISE
$10 place bet on THESEO
Final $12 on boxed trifecta with:CASINO PRINCE, FORENSICS, SERIOUS SPEED and VALEDICTUM
It's more than a lifestyle - it's a religion
$10 on the nose CASINO PRINCE
$10 on the nose ESKIMO QUEEN
$8 place bet on FALAISE
$10 place bet on THESEO
Final $12 on boxed trifecta with:CASINO PRINCE, FORENSICS, SERIOUS SPEED and VALEDICTUM
It's more than a lifestyle - it's a religion
Thursday, April 24, 2008
It's a reLAUNCH!!
Hi WHAB friends...
Our blend of serious sports commentary, toilet humour and sports betting advice has started to gain a few loyal readers! It's really the only site like this in the country.
It is the aim of the three of us to start debates - so we want our readers to comment and comment often.
If you agree with us, let us know. If you think we are being assclowns, again, let us know...
If you like Phil Gould or Glen Boss.. well...
Especially on our punting forums, such as the Doncaster guide that we are releasing tomorrow morning - give us your tips. We want to provide a forum for lively debate on all Australian sports and racing.
Anyway, that's enough time without me calling someone a cockbag.
Enjoy your long-weekend. If you are considering going to a march tomorrow morning, do it.
P.S. Help us out every now and then by clicking on one of our sponsors.
Our blend of serious sports commentary, toilet humour and sports betting advice has started to gain a few loyal readers! It's really the only site like this in the country.
It is the aim of the three of us to start debates - so we want our readers to comment and comment often.
If you agree with us, let us know. If you think we are being assclowns, again, let us know...
If you like Phil Gould or Glen Boss.. well...
Especially on our punting forums, such as the Doncaster guide that we are releasing tomorrow morning - give us your tips. We want to provide a forum for lively debate on all Australian sports and racing.
Anyway, that's enough time without me calling someone a cockbag.
Enjoy your long-weekend. If you are considering going to a march tomorrow morning, do it.
P.S. Help us out every now and then by clicking on one of our sponsors.
We'll have a bowl celebrity mailbag: Glen Boss
With the Doncaster Handicap on the horizon, Glen Boss took the time out to answer some reader mail. It all gets a little candid, Thanks Bossy!
Mr Boss, What is the best horse that you have ridden?? {Kenny, 8 , Woolhara}
Great question Kenny, and a fucked question at the same time. Lets put this into perspective. Every horse that I have ridden was on its way to the glue factory before I got on their back... The horse that improved the most for me was Makybe Diva. Nothing horse that somehow won 3 Melbourne Cups! Fuck I'm good!
Bossinator! Great ride on Snitzel in the Magic Millions a couple of years ago you cockbag!!! {Captain Chaos, 28, Woodridge}
Snitzel was a shit horse you cock!!! It's best chance was to be five wide the trip... that's called riding for luck, like you would know that. When you are on a shitty $1.80 favourite, you need to get it out of traffic. When you are closest to the outside, you can here the crowd shouting, BOSSY! BOSSY!
Mr Boss, how do you manage to ride at 51kg?? I am 9 and weigh that now. {Maurice, 9, Bribie Island}
Wow you are a little fatty-mcfat-fat! Seriously, fat kids are the most disgusting thing in the world to me. First thing I would do for you is chop your leg off and make me some glue!!!
Anyway, big fella, to make my usual race weight of 51kg, I rely on a regime of diet and exercise. I eat nothing but glory and shit nothing but awesomeness!!! I also run a lot. I have to make a weight of 51kg for the Doncaster on the weekend and that will require me to pull out all the stops!!! For that, I typically need to rely on an enema. Good for the weight, and the other benefit is that you feel like you have been passed around by a group of black marines! Ah, marines, they know how to work your sphincter. I hope that answers your questions you big butterball.
Bossy, I have a plaque, years supply of spam and a nut kicking with your name all over it for winning Schrutebag of the week. Where can I give this to you?? {Professor Chaos, 27, Bondi}
I have enough trophies.. cause I am a winner. I can't eat Spam on my diet, and I only like being kicked in the testicles as foreplay. So pass.
How do you score such good rides when everyone seems to think you are a cockbag??? {JB, 27, Charleville}
This interview is over. Everyone loves the Bossinator!! Bossy! Bossy! Bossy!
Mr Boss, What is the best horse that you have ridden?? {Kenny, 8 , Woolhara}
Great question Kenny, and a fucked question at the same time. Lets put this into perspective. Every horse that I have ridden was on its way to the glue factory before I got on their back... The horse that improved the most for me was Makybe Diva. Nothing horse that somehow won 3 Melbourne Cups! Fuck I'm good!
Bossinator! Great ride on Snitzel in the Magic Millions a couple of years ago you cockbag!!! {Captain Chaos, 28, Woodridge}
Snitzel was a shit horse you cock!!! It's best chance was to be five wide the trip... that's called riding for luck, like you would know that. When you are on a shitty $1.80 favourite, you need to get it out of traffic. When you are closest to the outside, you can here the crowd shouting, BOSSY! BOSSY!
Mr Boss, how do you manage to ride at 51kg?? I am 9 and weigh that now. {Maurice, 9, Bribie Island}
Wow you are a little fatty-mcfat-fat! Seriously, fat kids are the most disgusting thing in the world to me. First thing I would do for you is chop your leg off and make me some glue!!!
Anyway, big fella, to make my usual race weight of 51kg, I rely on a regime of diet and exercise. I eat nothing but glory and shit nothing but awesomeness!!! I also run a lot. I have to make a weight of 51kg for the Doncaster on the weekend and that will require me to pull out all the stops!!! For that, I typically need to rely on an enema. Good for the weight, and the other benefit is that you feel like you have been passed around by a group of black marines! Ah, marines, they know how to work your sphincter. I hope that answers your questions you big butterball.
Bossy, I have a plaque, years supply of spam and a nut kicking with your name all over it for winning Schrutebag of the week. Where can I give this to you?? {Professor Chaos, 27, Bondi}
I have enough trophies.. cause I am a winner. I can't eat Spam on my diet, and I only like being kicked in the testicles as foreplay. So pass.
How do you score such good rides when everyone seems to think you are a cockbag??? {JB, 27, Charleville}
This interview is over. Everyone loves the Bossinator!! Bossy! Bossy! Bossy!
Walters Joke
Well with the Broncos' top coaching job up for grabs, every man and their dog submitted applications. Some applied under the addage of 'you've got to be in it to win it' and 'there's no harm in trying'. But K.Walters must have been the only one taking his application seriously. After Bellamy announcing his commitment to a Folau-less Melbourne side, every B rate coach in the country had their hearts in their mouth, Walters included. With the news hitting the stands that Bronco's assistant coach Ivan Henjak will be taking over every punter could see the value in the decision - except Walters. Running to the media over the Bronco's handling of the affair, the Ipswich Jets coach was annoyed that he recieved the mail via a group text message. Boo hoo Walters.
While former Brisbane icons, Langer and Webcke have been accomodated by Henjak to be included in the coaching line up, Walters has been left a mirror - I suggest he uses it. How about trying to first get your hands on the coaching position at Broncos' feeder club Aspley before getting excited that you can coach.
The Bronco's have always been known for looking after their own, with Lewis gifted the coaching job at Gold Coast and then as News presenter, Webcke as a news presenter, Ikin as a joke of a commentator and who could forget the Alan Langer cologne. It's no doubt that being a Bronco gifts you jobs which you are obviously not capable of, but the difference is those players forementioned could either play football or knew they couldn't and married the coach's daughter (Ikin you sly bastard).
Wake up walters you aren't worth the phone call, you aren't worth squat Walters.
While former Brisbane icons, Langer and Webcke have been accomodated by Henjak to be included in the coaching line up, Walters has been left a mirror - I suggest he uses it. How about trying to first get your hands on the coaching position at Broncos' feeder club Aspley before getting excited that you can coach.
The Bronco's have always been known for looking after their own, with Lewis gifted the coaching job at Gold Coast and then as News presenter, Webcke as a news presenter, Ikin as a joke of a commentator and who could forget the Alan Langer cologne. It's no doubt that being a Bronco gifts you jobs which you are obviously not capable of, but the difference is those players forementioned could either play football or knew they couldn't and married the coach's daughter (Ikin you sly bastard).
Wake up walters you aren't worth the phone call, you aren't worth squat Walters.
Breathing new life into the Summer of Cricket...
Following up on the Captains controversial post on the success of the IPL and what it potentially means for the flagging format to the domestic summer of cricket, I have considered a new format.
1) The 50 over game is practically dead in the water. At best, lets go with playing each visiting team 3 times. That way there are no ties in which Australia is not involved. That way there are only 6 limited overs games, rather than the old format of 15 or so...
2) Make 20-20 the centrepiece of the limited overs format. But How??? The argument that the Captain alluded to that 3 hours is not enough time to get lagered up at the cricket is a valid one. My thought is keep the 3:00PM to 10:00PM time slot in place. From 3-6, have a curtain raiser state game. Make sure that it is a rivalry game. So for the Gabba curtain raiser, have NSW v QLD, for the SCG curtain raiser, have NSW v VIC etc... Key in negotiating this, Channel 9 must cover this curtain raiser. For too long, Channel 9 have cherry picked international cricket and paid little regard to the state game. If Channel 9 aren't willing to play ball, then this awesome 20-20 concept can be auctioned off to the highest bidder. This would put state cricket back on the map.
Follow this with a nice 1+ Hour break from 6-7, so channel 9 can play the news and stick to their guns and make sure that there is never a night without the "I can't believe it's not journalism" stylings of 'A current affair.' Seriously, what is more important - a game of cricket, or assuring the uneducated masses that their poor lot in life is a conspiracy led by the Zionists at the oil companies and banks. For those at the ground, the pub beckons. Or you can stay to watch the Rogue Traders. Whatever, it's your heterosexuality.
This state game could be spiced up as well. Australia picks 9 players, with a bowler and batsman slot left unoccupied. The "viewers choice" best batsman and bowler back up and play the second game. Good times. Gets the fans really involved, makes certain that you see some different names in the Australian team as well.
3) Leave the tests alone. That is all.
1) The 50 over game is practically dead in the water. At best, lets go with playing each visiting team 3 times. That way there are no ties in which Australia is not involved. That way there are only 6 limited overs games, rather than the old format of 15 or so...
2) Make 20-20 the centrepiece of the limited overs format. But How??? The argument that the Captain alluded to that 3 hours is not enough time to get lagered up at the cricket is a valid one. My thought is keep the 3:00PM to 10:00PM time slot in place. From 3-6, have a curtain raiser state game. Make sure that it is a rivalry game. So for the Gabba curtain raiser, have NSW v QLD, for the SCG curtain raiser, have NSW v VIC etc... Key in negotiating this, Channel 9 must cover this curtain raiser. For too long, Channel 9 have cherry picked international cricket and paid little regard to the state game. If Channel 9 aren't willing to play ball, then this awesome 20-20 concept can be auctioned off to the highest bidder. This would put state cricket back on the map.
Follow this with a nice 1+ Hour break from 6-7, so channel 9 can play the news and stick to their guns and make sure that there is never a night without the "I can't believe it's not journalism" stylings of 'A current affair.' Seriously, what is more important - a game of cricket, or assuring the uneducated masses that their poor lot in life is a conspiracy led by the Zionists at the oil companies and banks. For those at the ground, the pub beckons. Or you can stay to watch the Rogue Traders. Whatever, it's your heterosexuality.
This state game could be spiced up as well. Australia picks 9 players, with a bowler and batsman slot left unoccupied. The "viewers choice" best batsman and bowler back up and play the second game. Good times. Gets the fans really involved, makes certain that you see some different names in the Australian team as well.
3) Leave the tests alone. That is all.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Demons Pain
Although Melbourne's captain D. Neitz is set to miss the next eight weeks with a pain in the neck, how many weeks will it take to solve the Demons pain on the field. A candid Neitz is determined to help from the sidelines, despite being of little help on the field in the last 5 games being quoted as saying "why go on and why bother". Sitting last on the table with 0 wins from their first 5 games and favourites to win the wooden spoon, I ask exactly that - why bother?
This season the Demons will be striving for a 1st round draft pick. An absolute joy to watch for all Demons and AFL fans over the coming 17 rounds. Surely AFL should consider some incentive for teams as woeful as the Demons not to lay down and play misere.
However given that the real pain in the neck of Demons' fans was winning more than 4 games last year, and as such have lost the chance to steal draft picks 1 and 2 next year, the only strategy left this year is to make sure they don't stuff up and win 5 this season.
This season the Demons will be striving for a 1st round draft pick. An absolute joy to watch for all Demons and AFL fans over the coming 17 rounds. Surely AFL should consider some incentive for teams as woeful as the Demons not to lay down and play misere.
However given that the real pain in the neck of Demons' fans was winning more than 4 games last year, and as such have lost the chance to steal draft picks 1 and 2 next year, the only strategy left this year is to make sure they don't stuff up and win 5 this season.
Get It India: IPL Style
Most of us who once were saying things like "It's hit and giggle stuff", "It's too short to get really pissed", "There's no strategy or building of an innings, it's all just close your eyes, swing the bat and hope for the best" have now been converted by the phenomenon which is the IPL. Whether it's Brendon McCullum's stunning 158 not out in the opening match, the bold names of the teams, the Indian pop ditties that accompany every four or six, or the antics of the billionaire owners; there's something for everyone in terms entertainment. Bangalore owner Dr. Vijay Mallya cancelled a star studded launch of his team’s music video such was his disappointment after they were hammered by 140 runs in their first match; it must of made him wonder why he’d bothered to fly out the Washington Redskins cheerleaders! Some personal highlights so far are the enormous lettering on the back of the shirt's of the King's XI Punjab players, the buffoonery of the ground announcers and of course the brilliant naming of the Kolkata Knight Riders. Watching the Knight Riders in action you just can’t help but think of this:
On a serious note, the success of the tournament must surely mean the eventual death of the 50 overs a side format. Twenty-Twenty really hammers home the point that overs 15-40 in the ODI are a complete waste of time. If a guy can smash 158 unbeaten off just 73 balls then what’s the point of him working the ball for singles off a part-time spinner? I think that the new form of the game will also have an effect on Test Cricket. The ease of which the players are smashing the ball all over the place could possibly mean that Test matches in the future will no longer be played over five days. Let’s face it, very few five day Tests come to a dramatic conclusion these days. The lines of thinking will be “why take five days for a match when we can get it over with in three or four”? It’s not likely to happen in the next couple of years but the IPL and general success of Twenty-Twenty worldwide has begun the start of cricket’s next evolution.
Handicapping the Super 14 Race
1. Crusaders 38
2. Sharks 32
3. Waratahs 31
4. Chiefs 27
5. Stormers 27
6. Hurricanes 26
7. Blues 25
8. Brumbies 24
9. Force 24
10. Reds 16
11. Bulls 15
12. Highlanders 11
13. Cheetahs 11
14. Lions 7
I will give a run home, pessimistic and optimistic forecasts and then do up some tables with my final table thoughts...
1. Crusaders
Run home:
Blues, Sharks, @ Reds, Highlanders.
It is hard to see any scenario whereby the Crusaders don't grab the top spot and home field advantage throughout the finals. The run home starts with two tricky home games, however the last two rounds at Queensland and at home to the lowly Highlanders should be relatively easy money.
Professors tip: 4 W, 3 BP (19P) (58)
2. Sharks
Run home:
@ Waratahs, @ Crusaders, Cheetahs, Chiefs
A brutal two week stretch comes at just the wrong time for the Second placed Sharks. You can put a strong probability on the Sharks dropping their away ties with the Tahs and Crusaders, then a nice rebound at home to the Cheetahs. A lot of the hopes in Durban may boil down to the way that they handle the Chiefs - a team that is getting hot at the right time.
Professors tip: Maybe 2 W, 2 BP +10points (42)
3. Waratahs
Run Home
Sharks, @ Bulls, @ Stormers, @ Reds
How's this for a tipsters nightmare. The Waratahs have been much maligned this year, but still sit comfortably in the top four. Ewen Mc has probably not deserved his treatment as the Waratahs have played above a lot of sensible forecasts already, especially given the state of the front row. Anyway, I'll give them a wins at home to the Sharks and away to the Reds. More than likely they will get one of their away games as well.
Professors tip + 3W, 3 BP +15Points (46)
4. Chiefs
Reds, @ Force, @ Lions, @ Sharks
The Chiefs, like Hansel are so hot right now. They should be even hotter after the Reds come calling on the weekend. The Lions should be a gimme for this bunch as well, so a lot can ride on which Force team they play next weekend. If this team has true designs on a title, they should pick up the first three of these and then they travel to Durban for the battle for second spot.
Professors tip - out on a limb, 4W, 3 BP+ 19 (46)
5. Stormers
@ Highlanders, Brumbies, Waratahs, @Lions
This is your big drop team. They might struggle to get the points away in Otago. To beat both good Australian teams in Successive weeks could be a struggle. Fortunately, the Lions come to town in the last week.
Professors tip: 2W, 2BP +10 (37)
6. Hurricanes
@ Cheetahs, Lions, Force, @ Blues
If any team can make some serious noise in the concluding stages, here they are. The first three games should be gimmes for these guys, and then they visit the maddeningly inconsistent Blues in the final round.
Professors tip: + 4W, 3BP +19 (45)
7. Blues
@ Crusaders, @ Reds, @ Highlanders, Canes
Your trendy pick for the S14 title every year in recent memory has failed to get it together yet again. It's hard to see how this group manage to lose some of the games that they do, for league followers, this is the early 2000's St George Dragons. The Wheels have come off and you have to think that the Cru and the Canes will knock them over. Even the Reds might bring off an upset.
Professors tip: 1 W, 3 BP + 7 (32)
8. Brumbies
Lions, @ Stormers, @ Bulls, @ Force
Time for some overdue credit for the much maligned Fisher King. The King has gotten more out of the Brumbies than anyone could have assumed possible at the begginning of the year. Sadly, it is hard to see them coming up with the four game sweep here that they need to make the final four.
Professors tip: 2 wins, 4 BP (12) (36)
2. Sharks 32
3. Waratahs 31
4. Chiefs 27
5. Stormers 27
6. Hurricanes 26
7. Blues 25
8. Brumbies 24
9. Force 24
10. Reds 16
11. Bulls 15
12. Highlanders 11
13. Cheetahs 11
14. Lions 7
I will give a run home, pessimistic and optimistic forecasts and then do up some tables with my final table thoughts...
1. Crusaders
Run home:
Blues, Sharks, @ Reds, Highlanders.
It is hard to see any scenario whereby the Crusaders don't grab the top spot and home field advantage throughout the finals. The run home starts with two tricky home games, however the last two rounds at Queensland and at home to the lowly Highlanders should be relatively easy money.
Professors tip: 4 W, 3 BP (19P) (58)
2. Sharks
Run home:
@ Waratahs, @ Crusaders, Cheetahs, Chiefs
A brutal two week stretch comes at just the wrong time for the Second placed Sharks. You can put a strong probability on the Sharks dropping their away ties with the Tahs and Crusaders, then a nice rebound at home to the Cheetahs. A lot of the hopes in Durban may boil down to the way that they handle the Chiefs - a team that is getting hot at the right time.
Professors tip: Maybe 2 W, 2 BP +10points (42)
3. Waratahs
Run Home
Sharks, @ Bulls, @ Stormers, @ Reds
How's this for a tipsters nightmare. The Waratahs have been much maligned this year, but still sit comfortably in the top four. Ewen Mc has probably not deserved his treatment as the Waratahs have played above a lot of sensible forecasts already, especially given the state of the front row. Anyway, I'll give them a wins at home to the Sharks and away to the Reds. More than likely they will get one of their away games as well.
Professors tip + 3W, 3 BP +15Points (46)
4. Chiefs
Reds, @ Force, @ Lions, @ Sharks
The Chiefs, like Hansel are so hot right now. They should be even hotter after the Reds come calling on the weekend. The Lions should be a gimme for this bunch as well, so a lot can ride on which Force team they play next weekend. If this team has true designs on a title, they should pick up the first three of these and then they travel to Durban for the battle for second spot.
Professors tip - out on a limb, 4W, 3 BP+ 19 (46)
5. Stormers
@ Highlanders, Brumbies, Waratahs, @Lions
This is your big drop team. They might struggle to get the points away in Otago. To beat both good Australian teams in Successive weeks could be a struggle. Fortunately, the Lions come to town in the last week.
Professors tip: 2W, 2BP +10 (37)
6. Hurricanes
@ Cheetahs, Lions, Force, @ Blues
If any team can make some serious noise in the concluding stages, here they are. The first three games should be gimmes for these guys, and then they visit the maddeningly inconsistent Blues in the final round.
Professors tip: + 4W, 3BP +19 (45)
7. Blues
@ Crusaders, @ Reds, @ Highlanders, Canes
Your trendy pick for the S14 title every year in recent memory has failed to get it together yet again. It's hard to see how this group manage to lose some of the games that they do, for league followers, this is the early 2000's St George Dragons. The Wheels have come off and you have to think that the Cru and the Canes will knock them over. Even the Reds might bring off an upset.
Professors tip: 1 W, 3 BP + 7 (32)
8. Brumbies
Lions, @ Stormers, @ Bulls, @ Force
Time for some overdue credit for the much maligned Fisher King. The King has gotten more out of the Brumbies than anyone could have assumed possible at the begginning of the year. Sadly, it is hard to see them coming up with the four game sweep here that they need to make the final four.
Professors tip: 2 wins, 4 BP (12) (36)
9. Force
Bye, Chiefs, @ Hurricanes, Brumbies
Top four looks totally out of reach with the Bye coming up. Would count themselves lucky to get a win in their games against the Chiefs and Hurricanes. The Brumbies game is a coin flip.
Professors tip: 1 win, 2 BP + 6 (30)
10. Reds
@ Chiefs, Blues, Crusaders, Waratahs.
Will not win another game. Shame, because they have been much improved this year and can hope for a mid table finish next year.
Professors tip: 0W, 2BP +2 (18)
11. Bulls
Bye, Waratahs, Brumbies, @Cheetahs
For a team that many pundits considered a top chance of winning the competition this year, the Bulls can at best play the role of Spoilers for the Waratahs campaign. May take two of the last three (Cheetahs, Brumbies) to finish a poor season on a winning note.
Professors tip 2W, 2BP +10 (25)
12. Highlanders
@Stormers, @Cheetahs, Blues, @Crusaders.
Your early season favourite for the Wooden Spoon will unlikely need more than a couple of Bonus points to avoid that dubious honour. Tipping them to upset the horrible Blues in the second last round.
Professors tip 1W, 2BP +6 (17)
13. Cheetahs
Hurricanes, Highlanders, @ Sharks, @ Bulls.
Will likely get the chocolates at home to the Highlanders. May be quite competitive in the other three games.
Professors tip: 1W, 3 BP +7 (18)
14. Lions
@Brumbies, @Hurricanes, Chiefs, Stormers
An historically awful season. Hard to see them taking more than a bonus point out of their last 4 games.
Professors tip 1BP +1 (8)
So, how do we line up if I get this right... my end of season table looks like this:
1. Crusaders 58
=2. Waratahs 46
=2. Chiefs 46
4. Hurricanes 45
5. Sharks 42
6. Stormers 37
7. Brumbies 36
8. Blues 32
9. Force 30
10. Bulls 25
11. Reds 18
12. Cheetahs 18
13. Highlanders 17
14. Lions 8
So, I have the Chiefs and Hurricanes improving on their current standings considerably, the Waratahs being a chance at hosting a final. The Lions a mortal lock for the spoon.
I think that the run home is going to kill the South African contenders. Given the Sportingbet market (down at the moment, link to come!) Has the Hurricanes and Chiefs as your outsiders of the top group to make the final 4, I think that investing in the two of them to make the top 4 is a sound strategy, and one that I will be doing once the market is up. The Hurricanes at $13 to win the Super 14 is excellent value. If any team can knock of the Crusaders, you have to think it is them.
Anyway, Enjoy your Rugby and Punting...
PC!
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Courier Mail agrees with Professor
An excerpt from the Courier Mail's Monday Mail section 21/4/08 RE: Glen Boss.
THE QUOTE
'Shinny, I feel sorry for you buddy'
After whooping and hollering on his way back to the winner's stall on Sebring, the sympathy Glen Boss showed Blake Shinn, who missed the ride because of suspension, seemed a tad insincere.
THE QUOTE
'Shinny, I feel sorry for you buddy'
After whooping and hollering on his way back to the winner's stall on Sebring, the sympathy Glen Boss showed Blake Shinn, who missed the ride because of suspension, seemed a tad insincere.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Your first WHAB entry into the hall of Schrutebaginess
Your first inductee was either going to be Gus or Bossy. Given that we just had him winning the slipper, Bossy it is.
Lap it up Bossy, make us love you. Tell us how well you just rode. Tell us it was less about the horse than the Sensational G Boss Ride!
I would have bet on Sebring on the weekend if it wasn't for this guy, so maybe I am the douche??? No, it's Bossy.
Well... I won this week
So now the only decision is on my punishment posts...
Thought long and hard about them. Decided on a nice group post for JB and the Captain.
Decided on a Margaret and David 'At the Movies' style post where the boys write conflicting reviews on this weeks installment of 'The Footy Show.' JB can be Margaret, El Capitan can be David.
This works for me on sooo many levels. While I am doing anything but watching the lamest show on television, the boys have to 1) watch the footy show (punishment in itself) and then get the pen and paper out to give nice analytical reviews of the douchebaggery of Paul Vautin, and whoever else happens to be on.
Captain: You will be mainly positive. Talk about how Gus moved you with his interviews and rants and how the Primary school humour was just what you needed.
JB: You will be mainly negative. They are too old for primary school humour, Gus is a twat etc...
This will be ball tingling fun for all involved. Or at least for me.
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah!!
Hello, Hello...
Thought long and hard about them. Decided on a nice group post for JB and the Captain.
Decided on a Margaret and David 'At the Movies' style post where the boys write conflicting reviews on this weeks installment of 'The Footy Show.' JB can be Margaret, El Capitan can be David.
This works for me on sooo many levels. While I am doing anything but watching the lamest show on television, the boys have to 1) watch the footy show (punishment in itself) and then get the pen and paper out to give nice analytical reviews of the douchebaggery of Paul Vautin, and whoever else happens to be on.
Captain: You will be mainly positive. Talk about how Gus moved you with his interviews and rants and how the Primary school humour was just what you needed.
JB: You will be mainly negative. They are too old for primary school humour, Gus is a twat etc...
This will be ball tingling fun for all involved. Or at least for me.
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah!!
Hello, Hello...
Sunday, April 20, 2008
The three leg multi pays off.
Why gloat yourself when there is a professional gloater that can do it for you.
Take it away Bono.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
The Professor's $50 Mocassin investment
The Moccasin is a tough gig this year. That's probably what has made it such a fun preview. Anyway, $50 does not leave me the cash flow to get too exotic as I like half of the field! So just win/place stuff here.
$10 Win: Related
$7 Each way: Reann
$3 Each Way: Siderius
$10 Win: Augusta Proud
$10 Win: Sugar Babe.
The toss up was between She's Meaner, Sugar Babe and Portillo for that last position. Knock on Portillo was his three straight weeks in work. Sugar Babe versus She's Meaner just came down to the barrier being more likely to hurt She's Meaner than Sugar Babe.
If you end up finding better than $25 about Over the Wicket, you should probably get a piece of that action as well.
All of the tips in this (and the other boys posts) will be "best price" as given by Sportingbet.
Good luck to all!
Except the other two merchants...
El Professorino.
$10 Win: Related
$7 Each way: Reann
$3 Each Way: Siderius
$10 Win: Augusta Proud
$10 Win: Sugar Babe.
The toss up was between She's Meaner, Sugar Babe and Portillo for that last position. Knock on Portillo was his three straight weeks in work. Sugar Babe versus She's Meaner just came down to the barrier being more likely to hurt She's Meaner than Sugar Babe.
If you end up finding better than $25 about Over the Wicket, you should probably get a piece of that action as well.
All of the tips in this (and the other boys posts) will be "best price" as given by Sportingbet.
Good luck to all!
Except the other two merchants...
El Professorino.
Friday, April 18, 2008
What to do with my last $50 - Part 2
Super 14: $15 on the Waratahs (13+) vs Lions into the Sharks against the Brumbies @ 2.67.
NRL/Super14: $25 on Cronulla Sharks/Storm/Waratahs @ 2.09
NRL: $10 on the Titans/Roosters/Sharks/Storm @ $5.22
Need to get back in the black. This should do the trick.
NRL/Super14: $25 on Cronulla Sharks/Storm/Waratahs @ 2.09
NRL: $10 on the Titans/Roosters/Sharks/Storm @ $5.22
Need to get back in the black. This should do the trick.
What to do with my last $50...Part 1
Related...good luck with that.
I'll have $10 win, $15 place on Portillo.
$10 on the nose Sugar Babe and $9 on the nose She's Meaner.
Boxed trifecta with Portillo, Sugar Babe, Augusta Proud and She's Meaner at 1/4. Cost is $6.
Happy punting.
I'll have $10 win, $15 place on Portillo.
$10 on the nose Sugar Babe and $9 on the nose She's Meaner.
Boxed trifecta with Portillo, Sugar Babe, Augusta Proud and She's Meaner at 1/4. Cost is $6.
Happy punting.
The humanity!
Thought I might gently break to the Captain that I am likely to tip Related tomorrow.
We both rallied hard against it in our Golden Slipper preview [below]. So why the change of heart???
iff [nerd alert - if and only if] they are swimming tomorrow at Rosehill this is my horse. It's Grand sire [Mr Prospector] due to some of the wonderful oddities of genetics, has produced the greatest line of mudlarks ever. This oddity I found, is due to having some sort of mong leg that loves give in the ground.
So, as I said, if you wake up tomorrow and find me advising $25 on Related, I have not gotten caught up in the hype. I am not getting in to the we love Bart crap that seems to be endemic everytime he has a runner in a big race, anywhere. For Christ's sake - Miss Meliss was a Melbourne Cup favourite at one point. I have actually blown off an afternoon at work reading about the wonders of wet track genetics.
We both rallied hard against it in our Golden Slipper preview [below]. So why the change of heart???
iff [nerd alert - if and only if] they are swimming tomorrow at Rosehill this is my horse. It's Grand sire [Mr Prospector] due to some of the wonderful oddities of genetics, has produced the greatest line of mudlarks ever. This oddity I found, is due to having some sort of mong leg that loves give in the ground.
So, as I said, if you wake up tomorrow and find me advising $25 on Related, I have not gotten caught up in the hype. I am not getting in to the we love Bart crap that seems to be endemic everytime he has a runner in a big race, anywhere. For Christ's sake - Miss Meliss was a Melbourne Cup favourite at one point. I have actually blown off an afternoon at work reading about the wonders of wet track genetics.
Time to 'Slip'er' one
Well this week we are treated to an extra $50 for the slipper and be sure JB won't leave you at the finishing post with anything but winning tickets.
There's no denying that the only thing better than picking the horse that wins is to pick the horse who's paying the most. So with that in mind, a little something something to get you into the taxi headed out, rather than the courtesy bus headed home.
$8 Each way on Portillo ($15)
$8 Each way on Sugar Babe ($15)
$8 Each way on She's Meaner ($15)
2 x $1 Trifecta:
1. Augusta Proud 1. Sebring
2. Portillo 2. She's Meaner
3. Sugar Babe 3. Sugar Babe
It's more than a punt - its a lifestyle
There's no denying that the only thing better than picking the horse that wins is to pick the horse who's paying the most. So with that in mind, a little something something to get you into the taxi headed out, rather than the courtesy bus headed home.
$8 Each way on Portillo ($15)
$8 Each way on Sugar Babe ($15)
$8 Each way on She's Meaner ($15)
2 x $1 Trifecta:
1. Augusta Proud 1. Sebring
2. Portillo 2. She's Meaner
3. Sugar Babe 3. Sugar Babe
It's more than a punt - its a lifestyle
Lance Thompson Quits: Cites years of mediocrity
Shire stalwart and WHAB favourite Lance T'hompson retired from Rugby league last night, provoking those in the know to race out to their local betting shops and plunge on the Sharks this weekend. 'They'll be doing it for Lance' this weekend, says Panthers forward Tony Puletua. 'I don't know how we can possibly beat them.' [Editors note, this is the biggest myth in sport may it die a horrible death - starting this weekend!]
When we at WHAB think of big LT, we think of a glorious career notable for:
1) 14 years of mediocrity.
2) Being the least gay looking man called Lance... ever.
3) Being on 6 premiership favourite Dragons teams and winning... well, none.
Thanks LT, I only got to write about you a few times. May you enjoy retirement.
Now the real test for you old mate is to prove that being a red-haired-ex-leaguey does not automatically make you a complete cock.
When we at WHAB think of big LT, we think of a glorious career notable for:
1) 14 years of mediocrity.
2) Being the least gay looking man called Lance... ever.
3) Being on 6 premiership favourite Dragons teams and winning... well, none.
Thanks LT, I only got to write about you a few times. May you enjoy retirement.
Now the real test for you old mate is to prove that being a red-haired-ex-leaguey does not automatically make you a complete cock.
Your WHAB Golden Slipper Preview!!!
So the Golden Slipper, Australia's premiere juvenile race is upon us. We at We'll have a Bowl wish to celebrate this with a full preview. So get your best betting hats on and lets get to it. The Golden Slipper is held at Rosehill which is in Western Sydney. So the first thing to get sorted is that the Golden Slipper is an inappropriate name. Let's go with the footwear de jour in the West, the Brown Moccasin.
Yep... it's in the WEST!
Augusta Proud will be the one to beat, enough horses here to make a name for themselves including Stripper, Sugar Babe and She's Meaner. My money will be each way on Stripper and She' Meaner. All thats left is to count the cash
The Captain's selections:
Leader's bias:
1. She's Meaner
2. Sebring
3. Sugar Babe
4. Augusta Proud
Backmarker's bias:
1. Portillo
2. Augusta Proud
3. Sugar Babe
4. Sebring
Best roughies: Well look like there are only two this year, Sidereus and Sienna's Fury. We're out in the Western suburbs so clean out the ashtray from your car and get rid of your shrapnel on this motley duo!
Yep... it's in the WEST!Where even on a feature race day, you can see these guys!
(Looks a little like the Captain!)
So, withour further adieu, your Brown Moccasin preview.
1. All American (B Rawiller)
Barrier: 14
Price: $10
Captain: Not too keen on this one. I think the Blue Diamond form this year, like most years, is not as good as some of the Sydney lead-ups. With the exception of Miss Finland I can't think off the top of my head of any other horses coming out of the Diamond running well in the Slipper. I also think the pair that quinellaed the Gold Coast Magic Millions have superior form. The Skyline Stks that he won was to me a B Graders race. While I can't totally write off a Hayes-trained horse, from barrier 14 he'll likely find a traffic jam as they straighten even if jockeys are bringing horses wider at the turn. A plus is his dead track form with the likelihood of rain affected going but the $10 is enough to have me looking elsewhere.
JB: Likes the distance, handled himself well at M.V, R'Wick and Caulf. Barrier draw will hurt and there are faster horses in this race.
Professor: Consistent - like most of these - but has not yet put in a run that jumps out at you. The barrier makes it tougher, obviously, so think that the $10 is a bit tight. Disagree about the quality of the Blue Diamond form, but being well beaten in that same Diamond probably not a good sign. PASS!
2. Krupt: (H Bowman)
Barrier: 8
Price: $21
Captain: Even less keen on the formline out of the Todman. Nicely drawn and a solid 2nd on the dead but really can't have him at $21. Manager of the syndicate of owners is M. Burns..."Well, that's odd ... I've just robbed a man of his livelihood, and yet I feel strangely empty. Tell you what, Smithers - have him beaten to a pulp."
JB: Run in the Todman was sub 36 seconds, probably the widest barrier you would be happy with, can run but will take more.
Professor: Lost two some average Sydney two year olds in his first two starts. Then came out and won the Todmaaaan. That makes me think that the Todman is a pretty ordinary form race and old Krupt would be one to avoid - the $21 is well tight.
3. Siderius (L Cassidy)
Barrier: 2
Price:$41
Captain: Beaten 2.4L by All American in the Skyline, he then took advantage of a dream run to win the Pago Pago. That was at this track and on dead rated ground. It will probably take another dream run to and some terrible luck to other runners for him to win but he's drawn for a nice run and perhaps a place chance at odds.
JB: Will take more than what this horse offers.
Professor: The Pago Pago form doesn't look strong either. Nice juicy price at $41, Maybe improving?? Well drawn. Would think about going each way on this one. Probably the worst results from him have been on rain affected ground. There's another knock.
4. Over the Wicket (Z Purton)
Barrier: 7
Price:$18
Captain: My view of Over The Wicket is that perhaps he should try around the wicket. Even if just for the few balls before the luncheon break. He ran close 2nd's to All American and Sidereus but before that was cleaned up to the tune of 3.8L by Sebring who bungled the start badly. I guess my real issue is the overuse of cricketing cliches in racing. Over The Wicket, Down The Wicket, Owzat etc...is Mark Waugh responsible for this? Or more likely Simon O'Donnell? Nice draw and sound wet form but I think I'll be able to find something at better odds for my multiples.
JB: If the price is right, otherwise factor into your multiples.
Professor: This is a pretty cool horse. It never looked like having the polish for a race like this, but it has also never put a foot wrong. Consistent enough to sneak some prize money but I am not at all taken by the $18 on offer at this stage. It should drift before Saturday and would sneak some each way money on Portelli's chance if it blows south of $30.
5. Related (C Newitt)
Barrier: 16
Price: $12
Captain: I find it very hard to believe that a horse can win a Slipper at just it's second start. And when the first start was a 2nd in the much-maligned-in-this-blog Todman I find it even harder to believe. Then I see it is at $12 despite being unknown in the wet, still learning, and out of gate 16 and I wonder how many cretins have backed this horse to win the Slipper/Melbourne Cup double because it's trained by Bart Cummings. Way too short. Pass.
JB: One for those who bet on Cummings regardless of the race.
Professor: Every big race, people get all moist about horses that flash home in their most recent start. And adding to the moisture on the panties of S O'Donnell was the fact that it is trained by Bart Cummings. Two things to think about here: 1) It flashed home in a pretty weak form race. 2) You can sit back against 9 horses on a genuine tempo (half of whom are very ordinary) and flash home. Try doing that against 15 horses - all of whom have a bit of quality about them. Get as moist as you want O'Donnell but this one is not going to win. It's like people just watched the SAAB and today is Cup day. Christ. The Todman formline - as I will suggest ad nauseum is also very very ordinary.
[WET TRACK ALERT!!!! The sire Elusive Quality has probably the best wet track progeny in this field. Could well be the only true duck in the field!] Will explain this much more in my $50 slipper post. Suffice it to say, it is a part of the GREATEST wet track bloodline [Mr Prospector] in the history of racing.
6. Reann: (D Dunn)
Barrier: 4
Price:$18
Captain: In my opinion, Blue Diamond form is not the best guide. This one got the wobbles in it's first clockwise run in the Todman. Would consider putting in my multiples but for that run. Beaten 3L by Krupt so would need to improve by more than that to be winning here. Gate and give out of the ground a big help but I am inclined to leave him out lest he lose the plot turning for home again.
JB: Loves the Dead track, better options available.
Professor: Blue Diamond winner. Drawn well. The nagging question about this guy is whether he can't handle the Sydney way of going or whether he just 'got a case of the Canterbury's' as his trainer David Hayes suggested. I will believe Hayes (first time for everything) and invest in Reann. Like it!
7. Von Costa de Hero (C Williams)
Barrier: 17
Price: $13
Captain: I just don't understand all the fuss about this horse in relation to this race. Certainly looks a nice middle distance/staying type but think he'll find this a bit sharp. I can't find anything I really like about this horse to be honest. Not a big fan of Hayes having a third of the field in every big 2.y.o. event. Craig Williams doesn't make me want to jump up and scream for him. Darley buying him for 100 billion dollars. Bad gate. First time the Sydney way. If he wins I'll be reaching for the bottle that's for sure.
JB: There's no denying this is a fast horse, but will take a sub 35 sec race.
Professor: Is there a combo I despise more than Williams and Hayes? Yes (see Boss, G + anyone), but not many. This guy, along with Burgeis are probably looking for the Sires, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is a panty moistening charge to the line from this guy, but I think others will be sharper. The wet track changes my mind slightly. Has both Encosta De Lago and SCENIC in its bloodlines.
8. Sebring (G Boss)
Barrier: 6
Price: $5
Captain: In my opinion, this is one of the top three most talented horses in this race. Perfectly drawn and unbeaten, all three wins on rain affected going including a slow track. Distance looks no problem with an 1100m win on the slow and he was pulling away in his other two wins. However I am torn since Blake Shinn (suspended) is being replaced by Glen Boss. For all his Group 1 glory there are some horror stories to go with it. Snitzel, a horse who in it's lead-up race won by 7L, dead-heated for 3rd in the 2005 Magic Millions Classic. This was a horse who later went on to beat Takeover Target into 3rd in an Oakleigh Plate. He was upstaged that day by Bradbury's Luck and Emit Time who went on to do nothing for the rest of their careers. The reason for this was that he was 5 wide the trip. Boss described it as a "flat run". "He surprised me," Boss added. "He never got in close to the fence in the race but when I asked him for something there was no ping. He just wacked away." Most horses whack away when they're 5 wide in a high pressure race I 've found. There are other stories too, but I digress. I don't really hate Glen Boss, just don't trust him with my hard earned. The other issue with Sebring is that he missed the start badly at his first 2 starts. A repeat of that in this field will see him finish middle of the pack. I will include this horse in my multiples and may yet persuade myself at the last minute to plunge on it. One of the main chances.
JB: Question the distance for this horse compared to the others trained for 1200m.
Professor: The biggest knock I can find on this guy is that his only exceptional run came over 1000 metres. He was in that Over the Wicket - Siderius class over 1100, and one has to wonder if he will drop back further over the extra 100. Looks like an out and out sprinter. By the way, I never bet on Glen Boss in big races. The joy of picking a winner is always promptly erased by Glen Boss dancing and talking himself up. Cock.
9. Hips Don't Lie (D Beadman)
Barrier: 9
Price:$15
Captain: You can't help but wonder what Amelia's Dream would have done in this race with Hips Don't Lie at $15. Looks a decent place chance, not sure if she has what's required to win though. She is a hard one to line up, a bit inconsistent perhaps? Maybe she put it all together last start and maybe her run in the Silver Slipper was okay too considering she beat all but the distant winner home. There's one of these horses in every race. I just don't know about her. A chance at a place but not exactly at juicy each way odds. Think I'll leave her out. Which is not to say you should.
JB: If you can look past the run in the Blue diamond, then you can see this horse lifting and being right amongst it. Don't overlook.
Professor: Hayes talks up this being his 4th best runner. Beadman on board tends to dispute this view somewhat. Very open field and Beadman could sneak this home. Not sure. The Reisling is starting to look like a very strong form race after Portillo got up last weekend.
10. Portillo (R Quinn)
Barrier: 11
Price: $16
Captain: I have a bit of time for this one but will need the speed on and the track to suit. Hit the line hard to win the Gimcrack and the Magic Night. Don't think the Canterbury track helped her racing pattern and the run there in the Reisling was okay anyway. If the track is favouring backmarkers this is the one I want to be on. Two wins from 3 starts on dead tracks a big plus. There is something Forensics about her...
JB: Getting faster with every ride, will trouble your multiple if you leave behind.
Professor: Came with a big run to grab Sugar Babe last weekend. Probably wont get quite so many favours in the Moccassin.
11. Stripper (J Lloyd)
Barrier: 5
Price: $26
Captain: Was thinking about including her in my multis but news of a foot abscess has dampened any enthusiasm. Form is solid and all her starts have been on wet tracks. Maybe she'll still run but just cannot take an injured horse in a Golden Slipper.
JB: Roxane, you don't have to put on the red dress tonight. I like it.
Professor: She works HARD for the money. So HARD for the money. She works hard for the money so you better treat her RIGHT! Only run that I worry about was on a slow track. Think that you will shop much better than $21 on raceday. Barrier a big help. Think this is your best roughie. Has some Zabeel in it from the Dam's side (Mudlark) and some Danehill Dancer (not so much...) What this guy does on rain affected ground a mystery.
12. Sugar Babe (D Nikolic)
Barrier: 12
Price:$13
Captain: A good chance. Think this is one that will eat up wet ground but could take this out in the dry as well. Her form is good, even the Gold Coast run was respectable and considering I like Portillo as my swooper I can't knock Sugar Babe after the Magic Night. Also strikes me as being pretty foolproof. Can see things going wrong in the race for some of the other runners but expect Sugar Babe to be thereabouts at the finish. Good value at $13.
JB: Dropped its dot against Augusta Proud at the G'Coast. Will prefer a little less sting in the ground. Can prove itself here.
Professor: Went far too early last weekend in the Magi. The run in the Millions can be excused as it started in the carpark. Before that - faultless. Nikolic on board and a slightly improved gate. Chance.
13. Anatomica (D Oliver)
Barrier: 3
Price: $14
Captain: I think I would probably have preferred to see Anatomica have another run before this race. I also have the feeling that gate 3 is going to be less than ideal for her and that she may strike trouble. No doubt has some ability but think there are others I'd rather be on in the $10-$15 range.
JB: With Oliver on board I will leave for my girlfriend to pick.
Professor: Might have some real ability. Chased home Hips Don't Lie in a great form race in only its second start. Great gate, great horseman. If you can shop better than $14, you really should. Choisir's don't go well with the give in the ground. Now a definite PASS.
14. Augusta Proud (C Lindop)
Barrier: 1
Price: $7.50
Captain: I doubted her Adelaide form before the Gold Coast race which was a big mistake. What a win, what a great ad lib ride and I see no reason why she can't complete the Magic Millions Classic/Golden Slipper double. Wet track ability is a bit of a query but no-one really knows with 2.y.o's; I like to give them all the benefit of the doubt until they prove me wrong. She's six from six and Clare Bear is riding brilliantly. $7.50 seems on the money and I'll be throwing her into my multiples.
JB: Plenty to like about this horse - except the price. Every chance here, good enough to win first up record is no lie.
Professor: Clears every hurdle put in front of it. The hotness of Lindop on board. Will probably have no trouble getting to the front from gate 1. Will look the winner for a long time. Mystery in the wet. Never run on worse than good but it's Sire produces a lot of real Ducks.
15. Burgeis (C Brown)
Barrier: 18
Price: $17
Captain: Think she'll be a better horse over more ground but I wouldn't rule her out of this altogether. She'll hit the line harder than most and may be one of the horses that can take advantage if they steer clear of the rail from her wide gate. Will obviously take a nice ride to get her in the finish however and I would certainly be looking for a much better price than the $17 on offer before considering.
JB: No chance.
Professor: Drew the car park. Probably wants more ground. Same story and neigh on identical form to Von Costa De Hero. Why then do we hear about old Von Costa constantly?? And let me say, even with the gate I think this is a better 1200 metre horse than Von Costa. Barrier starting to be less of a concern as you know he is going to get back and boom home anyway. Starting to warm to this girls chances. The tempo will be hot and think this could be the best of the closers. Catbird out of Danehill which means that the wet track probably won't suit.
16. She's Meaner (N Rawiller)
Barrier: 13
Price: $15
Captain: Think she's fantastic value at $15 if she handles the wet. Her run at the Gold Coast was super when you bear in mind the the leaders in all the other races capitulated. Not too concerned about her barrier as she has the early speed to either cross and lead or take a nice sit. I personally think Nash Rawiller will take her straight to the front. Her form is very good...if only we had some wet track form to go on on her. They'd not want to get to far back because she's going to take some catching.
JB: With the barrier has alot ahead of it. Hard to let go by, worth some time. Would love to think this a great sales pitch for a pimp.
Professor: Would have loved to see this thing draw a better gate. Likely to slide into 12 which is not great. Good chance even from there. Again, hard to lay out a betting strategy prior to race day. Need to see who blows out. If she does, then we'll talk. Should handles some give with a lot of NZ in its pedigree.
17. (EM1) Sienna's Fury
Barrier: 10
Price: $61
Captain: With the possibility of Stripper being scratched looks like she may get a run. You can never say never in racing but I'd be very surprised if she was first to greet the judge. Her form is not terrible but she hasn't really looked like winning any of those races. She'll probably have the best place odds in the field so maybe leave this one to your missus to throw $2 a place on.
JB: ....
Professor: She's in now... Would love to have a reason to take the $61 apart from pure unadulterated greed. Can't find a smashing one. Finished about as far behind Reann as All American did in the Blue Diamond. So if you are going to take the small odds on AA, take the juice here.
18. (EM2) Typhoon Fury
Barrier: 15
Price: $61
Captain: Will likely not run.
JB: ....
Professor:And you.
Professsors doctorate in puntology:
Was thrown two curveballs in the last day with a lot of rain and the scratching of my best roughie - Stripper. That just blows. So the first search is for a roughie or two. Let's take Siderius as a good roughie - may be an improving type. You can almost take Reann a roughie the way she has been blowing. Probably shop somewhere around $25 come race day and that is just wild.
On Pace Bias:
Augusta Proud - She's Meaner - Sebring - Sugar Babe - Reann
Run-On:
Related (only because i think it will be a duck) - Portillo - Von Costa - Augusta Proud.
Things have certainly changed now that at least a slow track looks assured. I have had to consider Related and Von Costa as they are bred to race well on rain affected ground. At this stage given $50 to play with I would look into $10/$10 on Reann, $15 on Augusta Proud and $15 on one of the top three run on's that I suggested here. Will confirm that tonight/tomorrow in the punting post mk II. Siderius each way another looker.
I would forget about any Catbird/Danehill Dancer progeny in the mud. So Burgeis and Stripper out. Also any Choisir - Anatomica. The rest COULD handle the mud. Think that related and Von Costa will do it best, though.
JB at his best:Augusta Proud will be the one to beat, enough horses here to make a name for themselves including Stripper, Sugar Babe and She's Meaner. My money will be each way on Stripper and She' Meaner. All thats left is to count the cash
The Captain's selections:
Leader's bias:
1. She's Meaner
2. Sebring
3. Sugar Babe
4. Augusta Proud
Backmarker's bias:
1. Portillo
2. Augusta Proud
3. Sugar Babe
4. Sebring
Best roughies: Well look like there are only two this year, Sidereus and Sienna's Fury. We're out in the Western suburbs so clean out the ashtray from your car and get rid of your shrapnel on this motley duo!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)