This was an insane market. I need to remember that this blogs aim here is to give some spring guidance - not for me to gloat about my big win.
Anyway, how WFA superstars like Ashikaga, Triple Honour and Gallant Tess come in well shorter than Mentality is beyond me. In Handicap conditions at this point, Mentality is gone. However, WFA horses in Sydney are few and far between. Racing to Win and Mentality are pretty much alone there. Triple Honour is a doncaster winner - true. However, he won that with 50 kg on his back. Add another 8 kilos and see how the Randwick mile swallows you now BOSSY!
Anyway, as for the rest of the spring, you can't overstate the case that this is WFA and the rest of your spring will be littered with handicap races. Theseo will come in really well under those conditions, as will Gallant Tess. They are two horses I would be wanting to follow based on this. Mentality could pop up again but he will find it harder when he is the only horse lugging that kind of weight.
Monday, September 29, 2008
This was an insane market. I need to remember that this blogs aim here is to give some spring guidance - not for me to gloat about my big win.
The Valleys claim more of my money.
Ceffalu? Are you joking?? Glad the races weren't on channel 9 so I didn't have to listen to O'Donnell's crap. Devil Moon is becoming a non-winner. I thought that Casual Pass was the best bet in this field and 150 out from home he looked like the Valley Turn ate him up as it has eaten many a horse.
The only interesting run here for your spring is fast future. Came from wide last and made one hell of a run to finish 5th.
Maybe Better has drifted in the market since this race. A race he was hit quite hard in. Things to think about: 1) Mayfield Smith wasn't setting Maybe Better for the JRA cup. How many times do you have to hear Mayfield Smith say "I only want to win one race" before you believe him? 2) If you took the $8 on offer on Maybe Better, that's noones fault but your own. 3) After Maybe Better is not even shaken up, he makes a little run - not the eye catcher from last time but he wasn't asked to make a run this time. 4) He drifts to $31 for the Melbourne Cup based on this. Oh Glorious day!
Moral of this race: Don't give up on Casual Pass, don't give up on Maybe Better, Don't un-give up on Ceffalu, keep that run of Fast Future in your back pocket.
Carnero had little go right for it here, but hard to avoid the conclusion that Whobegotyou is set to be one of the three year old stars of the spring. Keep following here.
All American and Carnero were the only real quality opposition and both had excuses but hard to see the tables turning. Not sure if I would take the $2.80 in the Caulfield Guineas given that Time thief, Duporth and Lord Tavistock are lining up there.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
After a miracle last-gasp loss, followed by a miracle last-gasp win, the Storm have now lost their captain Cameron Smith. A suspension was fair enough but the NRL can jam their loading system up their ass. Moving on, the Sharks have lost five eighth Brett Seymour, which could be almost on par with Melbourne's loss of Smith. Seymour has been the perfect fit for the Sharks at 6 and I think he'll be missed more than most realise. Thinking back to Major Turdler's stats, I tend to think that the week off won't help the Sharks. A lot of punters are labelling the Storm as vulnerable at the moment...others are just waiting for them to turn it on like we all know they can. We'll find out tonight. Sorry long-suffering Sharks fans, but I'm tipping the Storm.
Sea-Eagles vs Warriors
Rabs: "Welcome to Brookvale Oval, on this lovely evening, as the Sea-Eagles of Manly take on the sheep-shaggers from across the ditch, in the New Zealand Warriors". Ram-rooters or no, the Warriors are the worst possible match-up for Manly after their week off. NZ are on a roll; and try telling Price and Wiki that they can't win this game. The battle up front should be one of the highlights of the season. I hear a lot of people tipping Manly to go on to win the premiership and I hear a lot of their fans talking it up, almost cocky. The should look no further than this. Having myself a piece of the Warriors at $3.15.
A Message To The Referees And Touch Judges
I don't want to notice you. Stay the fuck out of the game unless it's absolutely necessary to involve yourself. Let it flow you homos.
Should be two of the season's best contests. Fuck I love footy finals!
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Who will win?
Captain: I tip Geelong but not with overwhelming confidence. GF experience could be a factor.
Professor: I grew up watching my mighty navy Blues teams take these two sides apart in finals. However, I retain a massive hatred of the Hawks for the audacity they showed in winning one of the GFs that was rightly ours. I hated their clownish 80s teams of Brereton and Dunstall and Tuck. As such, go Cats.
Norm Smith Medallist?
Captain: I would be all over Paul Chapman at $15 but he is not 100% so looking for some more value. Cam Mooney is paying a juicy $34 and Cameron Ling is at $17.
Professor: A Geelong player. Don't come here for actual analysis. This is not my game.
Choice of beverage?
Captain: With an NRL Preliminary Final and another night of EPL action to follow, starting this early calls for the sugar and caffeine boost of Johnny Walker & Cola pre-mix.
Professor: Battling a stomach virus for the last week so if there is no change there some peppermint tea. If there is, I will be at the pub and it will be my favourite James Squire Golden Ale. Even the thought of that at the moment is making me pretty sick.
Captain: Red Rock Dijon Mustard and Honey chips.
Professor: Right now, thinking Salada. Again, without the explosive vomiting, I would be thinking of a nice $5 pub steak and chips with Pepper sauce.
What will you do instead if the game becomes lopsided?
Captain: Will try for some daytime sex, after being turned down will flick over to Sky Channel for some Spring Carnival action.
Professor: Will already be 50/50 split between the horses and the footy.
Who will you be cursing the most?
Captain: The umpires. Most times I watch AFL, my enjoyment is ruined by faggy umpiring decisions. Let the game flow you homos.
Professor: Glen Boss.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
So congratulations to Adam Cooney, a deserving winner, a man who can hit a target from 25 metres away, and not a member of a mid-field who couldn't find their two gun full-forwards all year, ploughing the footy over their heads when not dropping it in too short.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Think it's funny having a number for a name?
Sustained long run this.
Not quite the boneriffic run of Princess Coup, but Samantha Miss will have 47.5 kg in the Cox Plate.
If you want to snap up 2.20 about the Hussler after watching this and the Coup in action, go for it.
Another week, another Group win for the Hussler. Honestly, if he skips the Caulfield Cup I can't see the Huss going down in the Cox Plate. Your only two real threats seem likely to come from Pompeii Ruler who again stuck on nicely for second. It seems possible that the extra 200 metres might help Pompeii Ruler in the Cox Plate, though not wholly likely.
Personally, at this point I would be keener to look at Samantha Miss (and I did @$41) and Princess Coup.
As for cup runs, Littorio has just been rubber stamped (along with Maybe Better) as my Melbourne Cup Horse. For the second race in succession, Littorio has flashed home like a horse that is looking for the extra ground.
Zarita again caught the eye with a pleasing run for 5th. What was really nice to see was that BIG Z showed that it didn't have to run on-pace to put in a flattering performance. Honestly, I have reservations that big Z will stay 3200 meters. However, that does not mean that a couple of sneaky $$ @ $61 to win the Melbourne Cup would be foolish.
Maldivian will be rock hard fit for the Caulfield Cup (Which should be his target now) after yet another hard on-pace run. Honestly, can't see him turning the tables at Cox Plate time and it would have to be time to think about the Cups.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
The fair-weather Warriors fans have good reason to be confident after their performance last week. The fact is, if they are anywhere close to the Roosters at half-time, they should win. The Roosters showed last week against the Broncos that they are a fearsome team...for 40 minutes. Their lack of second half points, not just last week, but throughout the season has been perplexing. With that in mind, maybe the Roosters/Warriors halftime/fulltime double is good value at $6.50. Similar to my prediction last week, the heart is saying Roosters, but the head is saying Warriors.
Enjoy your weekend of footy cuz. Should be choice bro!
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
This is a decent race for cups purposes.
First, the Hussler. Comfortable win for the Hussler which should be expected. Let's not kid ourselves, the Hussler went nose to nose with a bunch of resuming stayers.
My issue with the Hussler is this: What is he being targeted for? It would be symptomatic of the hubris of trainers in this country if the Hussler lines up in the cups.
What is wrong with being Australia's best (and it isn't even close) horse over the 1200-2000 metre journeys?
Miss Finland - dominant over the 1200-1600 metre journeys. So greedy D Hayes says: Fuck that, let's embark on a cup campaign!
Usain Bolt - best 100 and 200 metre sprinter ever. Coach: "I want to train a marathon runner. Let's go on a marathon campaign."
Anyway: The Hussler should be targeted at his strength - the W.S. Cox plate.
Zarita - a solid on pace run for second. I don't like reading much into on-pace runs from stayers. It's a run and will do a lot for the horse's fitness. Big Z didn't get a lot of love from punters after that run, but don't be surprised if another good run sees its prices slashed like a turkish rug.
Littorio - certainly flashed home. El Capitan tends to think that this guy will be a bit flat from that run but we'll see. Hopefully that run was for real as he could be a really interesting Cup runner.
Efficient - as good a return as you could ask for from a Cup winner. Came home late and looked very good.
Master O - Looked a little slow to respond to the run of Efficient but wasn't far below Efficient in terms of a cup trial.
The rest: Take on trust. Prefer to see. [insert your own form guide cliche here]
We have put a poll up on the side bar for your early Melbourne cup picks.
Every year, as soon as we get the first warm rays of spring, I start watching the racing more intently. This year, as the WHAB crew is taking a tax-deductible trip down to Melbourne for the cup, the intensity will be even greater.
Every week or two, one of us will give a bit of a market update and talk about some of the runs that caught our eye.
The Dato Chin Nam Stakes over the mile on the weekend is a pretty awkward form race. Watching this a few times, it might be best to not forget that it happened, but to treat it as a run for some of the cup fancies and leave it at that. Guillotine put together a nice run, but it had all of the favours in transit and it wasn't a run that had "cups horse" all over it.
However this little snippet from the Herald Sun over the weekend made me do a wee double take:
"Guillotine has only 50kg, the minimum, in the Caulfield Cup and Hayes will consider that as the main target for the spring"
So there you go. A little taste of the G-Tine at $18 seems like a good idea based on that knowledge.
The second place getter Casual Pass stuck on nicely and may have a big race in him at the ripe old age of 8. Which race that is, we probably need one more run to determine.
Alamosa is probably one that you can strike out. If this horse was a Cox Plate chance, it really needed to win given that it had a lot of favours in transit.
Your best run from a cups perspective: Zipping who finished with a booming run out wide.
And what to make of Tears I Cry? Buggers me. Maybe this whole race is just another case of the Valley's screwing with everyones form lines.
Friday, September 12, 2008
My proposed system extends upon the McIntyre system to address these issues as follows:
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Roosters vs Broncos
Good luck to all the teams...but mostly the Roosters! So if we lose to the Broncos, and the Dragons beat Manly, but the Warriors get knocked out, but then the Raiders.......
All aboard the Pimp Train! Next stop Brisbane!
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
The Manly halfback held off the likes of Slater, Smith, Campese and Gidley, all of which I would argue stood out far more prominently than Orford this season. I just can't accept that a half with such terrible fifth tackle options and questionable kicking game can win such a prestigious award. Not to mention that he's never been considered good enough to play Origin. At times watching Orford plough the ball over the dead ball line on the last I have to do a double take to make sure I'm not actually watching Daniel Holdsworth. He's not the worst half in the game but there are at least 12 others I'd pick in the 6/7 before him. And there were at least five others that the NSW selectors put ahead of him. And it must also be pointed out that his kicking game is one of the main reasons they have dropped their last three against Melbourne. So Matt Orford, congratulations on joining such esteemed company!
Monday, September 8, 2008
In about an hour, the answer to this question will be revealed. At that time, the future of Matthew Elliott will be decided. Panthers CEO Mick Leary will probably end the term of the embattled coach one season early.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
It looks like a return to those good old days when a typical day at the office for Orton read like this: K.Orton 5/21, 43yds, 0TD, 3INT. And that's how you end up with a QB rating of 59.7. In the NRL you would give a rating like this to a halfback as bad as Daniel Holdsworth. This may even be harsh on Holdsworth as terrible as he has been for the past three or more years. When your offensive strength is actually your defense, that is not good. The Bears amazingly won 10 of 15 games in which Orton started in 05/06 but eventually the ridiculous amount of time the defense spent on the field took it's toll. So coach Lovie Smith has made the ingenius decision to start Orton this season after a couple of years in the wilderness...but admittedly, his other option Rex Grossman is not much better. Whereas the Bulldogs after years of Holdsworth mediocrity decided "You know what guys, Holdsworth sucks balls. He is absolute rubbish." and signed Brett Kimmorley, the Bears have stuck with two dreadful QB's instead of looking for someone else, anyone else to take snaps and as such, will be awful this year. Here's what the Chicago Times think:
Bears choose lesser of two evils in Kyle Orton
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
In one of the least interesting quarterback battles in recent NFL memory, the Chicago Bears have announced that Kyle Orton will be the team’s starter over Rex Grossman for the Sept. 7 season opener against the Colts.
This is one of those times where a player didn’t so much win a job as he did less to lose it. Need numerical proof? Orton is 12-for-19 for only 99 yards through two preseason games compared to Grossman’s 13-for-23 for 118 yards with a touchdown and interception. Not exactly a Hall of Fame battle.
If it has even crossed your mind to take the $5 on Chicago to win the NFC North then you should seek psychiactric help immediately...