Friday, September 12, 2008

WHAB Guest Blogger #1: Major Turdler

The McInTurdler System
I have long had many issues with the McIntyre system for NRL finals. The very notion that, if, as one would expect, Teams 1-4 win the first week of the finals, Team 3 subsequently plays team 5 (a higher team than the first week) in a knockout semi final is perplexing. If teams 1 and 2 win, there is absolutely no use whatsoever in the second week of finals, other than to address the following flaw. The simple statistical fact that in the 9 years that the McIntyre system has been in effect, the team who has had the week off has progressed to the grand final in 9 out of 18 qualifying finals. 90% of the time, this has been the 1 or 2 ranked team, and they only win 50% of the time. Given that they have been the strongest side all year, you would expect this to be closer to 75%. While having the second week off seems to work well in the AFL, it is a clear disadvantage in the NRL. Ultimately, the week off should be the first week, with the stakes not being quite as high in the following week.

My proposed system extends upon the McIntyre system to address these issues as follows:
Week 1: Teams 1 and 2 have the week off
3 v 8
4 v 7
5 v 6
Lowest 2 ranked losers drop out. Team 3 is the only team assured passage through to the second week.
Week 2:
1 v remaining loser
2 v lowest ranked winner
highest ranked winner v second highest ranked winner
Lowest 2 ranked losers drop out. Team 1 is the only team assured passage through to the third week.
Week 3:
Highest ranked winner vs remaining loser
Second highest ranked winner vs third highest ranked winner
Week 4: Both winners progress to Grand Final.
((At this point I will note that there is another possible variation on this system whereby each week finals are decided based on the ladder position at the end of the season (IE in week 2, team 1 plays the lowest ranked team still remaining, team 2 plays second lowest etc). However, this system, while eliminating the possibility that teams 1 and 3 can potentially meet in the second week of the finals, has the similar drawback to the current system that week 1 has no effect for team 3, and week 2 has no effect for Team 1))
I believe this system addresses the current flaws, and is far more advantageous to the team who wins the minor premiership (the way it should be). It also means that every game has an impact - which, in a finals series is vitally important. Additionally, it will space the finals out. 4 finals in the first week is too many, the end is too far away, and it loses impact. If there is one extra final in the second week, I think the level of support, both at the ground and on TV will increase.
The NRL will never admit that the McIntyre system is rubbish (Isn't that why the AFL dropped it?), but I think this is a reasonable compromise.
Please let me know your thoughts, and if there is any issues with this system I have overlooked.

Major Turdler.


Captain Carnage said...

Kenneth McIntyre has passed on and they should bury his system as well, once and for all. I like the McInTurdler in regards to the Team 1 and 3 scenarios but I still have reservations that a team can finish as low as 6th and possibly get a second chance. I know you're a Raiders man but after Saturday night, the notion that they could be given a second chance for finishing 6th and then getting smashed is a bit ridiculous. This is the main reason I prefer the AFL system. That said, yours is still a much better system than the present monstrosity. Team 1 getting rolled by team 8 is not going to happen that often, even if it did somehow happen this year.

Professor Chaos said...

Yeah. I like the idea of the McInturdler system. It improves massively on what we have.

I prefer the simple top 6.
Week 1; 1 and 2 take a break.
3 v 6 and 4 v 5.
Winners advance to play the rested teams in the prelim finals.

JB said...

At first glance it would seem that logic, simplicity and recognition of final standing on the ladder would be paramount to a successful and enjoyable finals series.

However I think that the problem with the McIntyre system is that it isn't complicated enough. I'm talking about an extended 10 - 12 weeks of finals, begining with a round robin and incorporating wild cards, bogie draws, home and away mathces, double point weekends, mid-week mad matches and some form of a 7 a side play off game with at least 1 round of matches determined by a "last try" wins rule.

major turdler said...

Honestly, I would prefer the final six system as well; i would also prefer the AFL system. however, the current issue remains with the team having the week off then being involved in a knockout situation, when it has clearly statistically shown that it is a disadvantage.

Ultimately, I want the NFL system. Seperating the boys from the men. You lose, bye bye, better luck next year. However, again, the NRL won't go for it because it means less finals games (same issue as the finals 6.)

JB, if the NRL could go for it they most certainly would. In fact, just scrap the whole season. Just get a seeding based on the your result from the year before... no scratch that.. a seeding based on who has the hottest cheerleaders as Voted by Australia ala Idol... hmmm...

And the Raiders (both of the ones that are fit to play) deserve a second chance... they would have given the roosters or broncos a touch up. Only problem was they came up against a team who can tackle. it's like the harlem globetrotters being up against a team that can actually defend... it's just not fair!

major turdler said...

And one more thing... in the mcinturdler system, the home final goes to the team finishing highest on the ladder. The notion of the minor premiers playing the broncos at suncorp in a knockout second week of the finals ain't right... home teams go to 3,4 and 5 week 1; 1,2 and highest winner week 2.

Captain Carnage said...

Unfortunately the NFL system has the setback of being a 12 team system. It works for them because they have 32 teams. I like the idea of the second chance personally. If six players get injured in one game, which is feasible, then to have a whole season's hard work down the drain is a bit tough. The fact that the competition is so close means that one sub-par/unlucky performance or poor refereeing can put you out. No, I think the second chance should be there for teams 1 and 2. I agree the Storm should be at home this week too. I also think that JB has been on the wacky tobacky again...although the "mid week mad matches" brings back some Panasonic Cup memories...

Professor Chaos said...

The NFL System could work in the NRL - just a little scaled down. Realistically, my 6 team playoff is just one conference from the NFL.

The NRL seems to think that more matches and more weeks of finals is the way to maximise their revenue.

Which begs the question, why do the football codes that are actually successful do everything that the NRL doesn't?