SUPERBOWL XLIV PREVIEW!

So who's going to win tomorrow's Superbowl? Who cares?! I backed both New Orleans and Indianapolis early in the season so I'm sitting pretty. I'm particularly looking forward to smashing through the mountain of nachos I'm going to build at half-time, then washing it down with a couple of cold ones.

I think Indy will win and Peyton Manning will be MVP. As good as Drew Brees is, Manning is unquestionably the best QB in the game. The Saints are definitely a chance and punters have been snapping up the generous odds this week; I, on the other hand, snapped up the generous odds of $15 available on the 3-0 Saints after Week 3. They really shouldn't have beaten Minnesota in the NFC Championship game. The Vikings dominated possession but turned the ball over 100 times. Maybe more. One of those was a Brett Fav-re brain explosion interception as they were getting set up for the game-winning field goal. The Saints defense, to their credit, did what they've done all year; they caused turnovers/waited for Vikings brain explosions which the offense capitalised on. The Colts will likely be more protective of the football however. And Manning can be very hard to get to behind the Colts offensive line. The Jets had some success in parking Manning on his ass in the AFC Championship game and the Saints will be studying that vision keenly.

A slow start kills New Orleans here. They've been comeback kings all season, including overcoming a 24-3 half-time deficit at Miami to incredibly win 48-27 (just ask WHAB's resident Dolphins fan the Professor about that one!), but you just can't give up a lead to Manning and the Colts. They'll need to put Manning on the ground as much as possible and will need a couple of big plays from their running game and special teams. With game-breakers like Bush, Colston, Thomas, Henderson, and Shockey, they are a chance to win any game but I just have the feeling that the Colts will be too solid and methodical. Two things are for sure though; 1). we'll see plenty of points, and 2). I'll win $$cash$$ no matter what!

For what it's worth, I'd like to see the Saints win...I win slightly more $$cash$$ if they get up!

NFL Wildcard Weekend

So we won the Second Test, now everything is alright, Ponting is the greatest and never makes any mistakes, that was his plan all along, yeah...get fucked...totally. Needing to distance myself from the luckiest Australian Cricket captain ever and the choking Pakistanis, let's talk some NFL with Week 1 of the playoffs. Strangely enough, three of these games are replays of games played last week...and those three games were blowouts...


NEW YORK JETS (9-7) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-6)

The Bengals, assured of a playoff spot, went to New York last week and got absolutely punished by the Jets, who needed to win to get in. There are two differences this week; Cincy are at home, and it's sudden death for them as well now. The Bengals, looking more like a team of Aussie battlers, and Carson Palmer looking like myself taking snaps at QB, got nothing going on offense last week but you'd expect that to improve a bit at home. It remains to be seen if Chad Whatever-The-Fuck-His-Name-Is-Now can get any meaningful yardage against Darrelle Revis; there's a staggeringly good list of top receivers who've been fantasy duds up against this guy this year. It's not just Revis though, as the Jets D is stingy across the board, so Cincy need some guys to step up and make some plays. The Jets also have the NFL's top rushing attack in Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, who the Bengals didn't seem to have an answer for last week. I just think Cincy were too comprehensively outplayed last week to turn it around, are still not quite over the death of team-mate Chris Henry just a couple of weeks ago, and are just going to be hoping for a Mark Sanchez meltdown. Jets by 6-12 pts.


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5) @ DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5)

Another one-sided affair last week, the Eagles head back to the world's greatest sporting arena, Cowboys Stadium:

It's believed more than 100 Gautemalan workers perished trying to get that 55m long HDTV up there...

But the show must go on. Philly were dreadful last week and I would say with confidence that they cannot and will not play any worse. They were out-muscled by the pretty-boy Cowboys but after having Andy Reid holler abuse at them all week, I expect them to bring a bit more to the table. The factor that the Eagles have to play on is the Cowboys awful playoff record in recent times, including a monumental choke against Seattle in 2007, and being the first #1 NFC seed to be bundled out in straight sets a year later. If Philly start well, then you can bet they'll be telling the Cowboys all about those last 6 playoff losses, and you can bet the crowd will sense another season so full of promise disintegrating. A good start and a couple of deep bombs to Desean Jackson (who McNabb overthrew twice last week when he was open and had a step) and Philly could be right in this. The Cowboys should win; Demarcus Ware has the defense fired up with consecutive shutouts to end the regular season...I'll give it to them in a close one. Cowboys by 1-6.


BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-7) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-6)

The Ravens have a bit of a shot here with the season-ending injury to Tom Brady's favourite receiver and NFL reception leader Wes Welker. You'd still expect Brady to have a nice game though being the playoff machine he is. The Pats have won 11 straight playoff games at home and I expect them to make it 12 but not without a fight. The Ravens best chance to win is to pump it up the middle all day with Ray Rice and their assortment of running backs. Like there's no tomorrow. The Pats have defended the run better this year but it will be interesting to see how they handle Baltimore's multi-pronged rushing attack in heavy doses. I've got Brady getting New England over the line with a match winning, heroic 4th quarter. After all, he's learnt from the best:

It's Pats by 6-12! Brady rules!

GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-5) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (10-6)

Last week, the Packers went to Arizona and won 33-7. Forget about that. Replacing Matt Leinart with Kurt Warner (who was rested) at QB is like upgrading from a Kombi Van to a Bentley:

Matt Leinart

Kurt Warner

The Cards will be much more competitive without Leinart throwing bricks to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. You just can't ever really trust a left-handed QB. Arizona also showed that they are a playoff team last season as they defied the punters, making it to within 35 seconds of a Superbowl victory. Green Bay are certainly a chance to win but they won't want to be taking too much confidence out of last week. If Arizona can stop the run of the Packers, they'll go a long way to winning this; if they can get any semblance of a running game of their own to boot, they'll be winning. The Packers were solid in all facets a week ago and will look out-muscle Arizona once again but ultimately, I cannot stress how bad Leinart is, and Warner, with good protection, leads the Cards to victory. Arizona by 6-12.

Worst Play-Call Ever!

Your Patriots team is up by 6 with 2 minutes to go against the Colts on the road. It's 4th and 2 on your own 30 yard line. You go for it?!?! Now 2 years ago I would have called this arrogance of the highest order, but they were so unstoppable then that it would probably have been a good call. But when you're 2 games behind the Colts this season, the only thing to call this now is fucking stupidity. Bill Belichick must surely have the onset of senility. You're not turning it over to Jamarcus Russell here! Rather, gift-wrapping another TD pass for Peyton Manning (the reigning MVP), gift wrapping the Colts the top seed in the AFC, and looking like a general assclown.

And the Senile Old Coach Of The Week Award goes to...

SUPERBOWL PREVIEW!

Strategically placed day off work...check. Watery American beer...check. Ingredients for nachos...check. I'm all set then for Superbowl XLIII featuring the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a classic offense vs defense matchup. I'll always take the defense in a Superbowl, and thus, am tipping a Steelers victory. It will be interesting to see just how the Cards offense goes against the #1 defense in the NFL. I'm tipping another big game from Troy Polamalu. The guy makes defense fun to watch and is at $18 for the MVP, so get on that people. If you want to be boring and take a QB for MVP, the rewards just aren't there, with Roethlisberger at $2.50 and Warner at $4. Looking deeper in the market, Australia's first ever Superbowl starter Ben Graham has also been backed off the map, into $101. This would have to be the shortest price ever for a punter to win a Superbowl MVP! My advice would be to buy a packet of beer nuts rather than burn a fiver on Graham. The chances of him winning a Superbowl MVP are as good as mine!

Anyway, should be a great game, quite a few points scored and some big plays from guys like Warner, Big Ben, Larry Fitzgerald and hopefully Troy Polamalu to fatten the wallet. Pittsburgh to be belting out "We Are The Champions" for mine.

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Even the Arizona Cardinals can hardly believe the situation they now find themselves in; 9-7 in the regular season and now with a home game in the NFC Conference championship. And what's more, after I totally wrote them off against Atlanta, and then Carolina, I give them a good chance to win through to the Superbowl. Both the Cards and the Eagles benefited last week from their opponents sucking. The Giants were below par and Eli Manning had a forgettable evening against the Eagles. Still, Philly had to play well to get the win at Meadowlands. Arizona, on the other hand, simply turned up and watched the Panthers self-destruct. I don't think I've ever seen a really good team suck as bad as that. That said, the Cardinals passing game is clicking, even without Anquan Boldin (who might be back for this game), and they have established some sort of running game, which was non-existent during the regular season. Edgerrin James appears to be reborn at the right time...when he's looking for a new contract somewhere. But alas, Larry Fitzgerald is the man. He's made unbelievable catches all season, but his catches in the post-season are inspiring his team-mates to play their roles better. Their defense has also improved out of sight in recent weeks. The Eagles'offense, led by Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, has been very reliable of late and they should be able to move the ball down the field without too much trouble in this one. Philly's defense was superb last week, keeping the Giants without a TD. They face a more difficult assignment than a struggling Eli Manning here though. If they can shut down Arizona's resurgent running game I think they'll sneak away with the win. The Eagles defend the passing game better than the Panthers in general, and infinitely better than the Panthers defended the pass last week. But the Cardinals are at home...hmmm... I'm having trouble splitting the two teams but if you dangled me off a balcony until I picked one...Eagles to represent the NFC in the Superbowl.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Two of the top defenses in the NFL face off in the AFC Championship game. Baltimore's defense showed some of what they could do against the Titans, but the worry must be how long they were on the field. If you're being fair dinkum, the Titans should have won that game; they dominated time of posession, but shot themselves in the foot with three red zone turnovers. I detected what looked like a bit of tiredness in the Ravens defense late last week and their offense needs to step up if they are going to roll the Steelers here. Rookie QB Joe Flacco, who has done a super job to get them this far, needs to find a bit more time of posession from the passing game to compliment the running game of Le'Ron McClain (a favourite of the Professor) and Willis McGahee. At this stage of the season, Pittsburgh seem to have a great balance with Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore trucking it up, Ben Roethlisberger playing well and the defense doing their thing. I've said before that I'm not the biggest fan of Big Ben but he is throwing nicely of late...but I still don't entirely trust him. He'd want to be careful against the likes of Ed Reed or he could wind up with multiple interceptions. Taking everything into account, I'm tipping the Steelers. I think they'll be too good here and are deserved Superbowl favourites.

Halfway (sort of) Superbowl predictions...

At this point in the season, it seems a good time to nominate our top picks for the NFL Superbowl. Of course, we will as always be trying to find you a value bet or two!

Professor:

AFC: I have been burned before, always looking for teams with skill players in abundance. This year, think Chargers. Right now, I am looking for teams that have the strongest Offensive line and defence.

The AFC team that embodies this best is the Titans. Allowing a lean 11 points a game through 6 games, and with an offensive line that has made a lot more of the RB platoon of White and Johnson than most expected, this team is strong. QB is an occasional concern, though with the run game that these Titans own, game management from that spot is all they need. A solid investment at $8. 3rd stingiest defence in the league with 268 yards per contest and the great news is that most of their offence is coming on the ground - 154 yards per game.

To complement the Titans, the Steelers can be forgiven for the fail today against the Giants. Not the greatest day for the Roth, giving up four turnovers, but not too many teams have an offensive line that could allow a third string running back to put up the numbers Mewelde Moore has over the past fortnight. A return of Willie Parker and a bit of calmness under centre and these Steelers can rebound quickly. League's stingiest defence.

NFC: Pretty hard to look past the Giants, 6-1, the games 4th stingiest defence at 275 yards per game and 2nd best offence at 395 yards per game. Oh yeah, and a league leading 165 of those yards are coming on the ground. Built to repeat this year.

Right now, given that they sit on the bottom of their division at 4-3, you can shop pretty well on the Eagles. 4 point losses at Chicago and Dallas don't read badly, and a 6 point loss at home to the Redskins (minus Westbrook) reads okay as well. I have them here because I think that they are yet to click completely and despite this have been ultra competitive.

So you are shopping better on the Steelers and Eagles then on the Giants and Titans. To me, it would shock if your Superbowl wasn't played out by two of these four teams.

Captain:

AFC: If you shop around at the moment, you can get close to $20 on the Chargers winning the Superbowl. This is great value. Sure, they are 3-5 at the moment, but die-hards fans of the game know that they start the season 3-5 every year! You'll be sitting pretty with those inflated odds when they go on their annual eight game winning streak shortly. As the Professor touched on, the Titans miserly defence cannot be overlooked in Superbowl calculations. Can they win a Superbowl with Kerry Collins who must be around 50 by now at QB? Well, remember that Tampa Bay won with the unfashionable (and old) Brad Johnson, who is presently leading Dallas around the park with the aid of a walking frame.

"Brad, Romo's down, we need you!"

The Steelers...I still don't know how they won a Superbowl with Ben Roethlisberger. Fantastic one week and diabolical the next. I've never seen a QB put so many passes right on the chests of the opposition. Right in the bread basket. The guy has to be colour-blind. I would never draft him in a fantasy league. Ever. Anyway, they did win a Superbowl with Big Ben (and that was the worst ever Superbowl-winning QB rating), so they must be doing something right, but I'm prepared to leave them out of my betting portfolio. The only other team in the AFC that I would not totally dismiss is Jacksonville. Similar to the Chargers, look for them to be playing their best football in the back half of the year, provided their injury situation improves.


NFC: The NFC appears to be there for the taking for the Giants. They get a tick in every box but for the occasional Eli Manning meltdown. Teams that could trouble them for a Superbowl spot include Carolina, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Chicago and Dallas (if they get it together consistently). So after pencilling in the Giants, it's very open as to who they might play in the NFC Championship game between the aforementioned teams. It's hard to fathom how you could still get $17 on the Giants to win the Superbowl after Week 3; needless to say, I had me some of that. I've also had nibbles on my beloved Buccaneers, and, if they can find some red-zone offense, they are still very good value. Particularly, as if they make their way to the Superbowl, it just happens to be played at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. Yaaarrrgghh!!!

My halfway Championship games selections:

AFC: San Diego @ Tennessee
NFC: Tampa Bay @ New York Giants

Superbowl: Tennessee @ Tampa Bay! More likely Tennessee vs NYG, but yer never know me hearties!

Looks like we both agree that the Giants and Titans are looking good at this stage, but a long way to go.

Chicago Bears Season Preview

"Orton goes deep to Marty Booker for the touchdown!" is one phrase you certainly won't be hearing this season. The Bears look to have the worst offense in the league with a rookie to start at running back, wide receivers who are either kick returners or would be very lucky to be second stringers on other rosters and a QB who stunk up 2005/2006 so badly it was beyond belief.

Kyle Orton's passing even makes himself drowsy...

It looks like a return to those good old days when a typical day at the office for Orton read like this: K.Orton 5/21, 43yds, 0TD, 3INT. And that's how you end up with a QB rating of 59.7. In the NRL you would give a rating like this to a halfback as bad as Daniel Holdsworth. This may even be harsh on Holdsworth as terrible as he has been for the past three or more years. When your offensive strength is actually your defense, that is not good. The Bears amazingly won 10 of 15 games in which Orton started in 05/06 but eventually the ridiculous amount of time the defense spent on the field took it's toll. So coach Lovie Smith has made the ingenius decision to start Orton this season after a couple of years in the wilderness...but admittedly, his other option Rex Grossman is not much better. Whereas the Bulldogs after years of Holdsworth mediocrity decided "You know what guys, Holdsworth sucks balls. He is absolute rubbish." and signed Brett Kimmorley, the Bears have stuck with two dreadful QB's instead of looking for someone else, anyone else to take snaps and as such, will be awful this year. Here's what the Chicago Times think:

Bears choose lesser of two evils in Kyle Orton

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

In one of the least interesting quarterback battles in recent NFL memory, the Chicago Bears have announced that Kyle Orton will be the team’s starter over Rex Grossman for the Sept. 7 season opener against the Colts.

This is one of those times where a player didn’t so much win a job as he did less to lose it. Need numerical proof? Orton is 12-for-19 for only 99 yards through two preseason games compared to Grossman’s 13-for-23 for 118 yards with a touchdown and interception. Not exactly a Hall of Fame battle.

If it has even crossed your mind to take the $5 on Chicago to win the NFC North then you should seek psychiactric help immediately...

AFC West:Who wants to be LT's bitch???

The bad news for the Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs: They get molested by the San Diego Chargers twice each.

The good news for the Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs: They get to play each other twice each as well!

This could be far and away the biggest winning margin in the NFL this year. The "Over/unders" at Sportingbet reflect this but not by nearly enough for me!

San Diego 10.5 (Take the Over)

Raiders 6.5 (Push..)

Broncos 7.5 (The Under)

Chiefs 6 (The Under)

Anyway, lets have a look at the teams in this division in a bit more depth.

San Diego:

Last season finished 11-5 despite a dire start to proceedings. Rattled off wins in their last 6 games and finished with a nice points differential of +128. Play to one of the most simple time-tested gameplans of moving the ball on the ground and playing tight defence. In that mix is third year quarterback Phil Rivers who has demonstrated some real skills growth in the last year. The key personnel move was the NFL's best second string running back Michael Turner moving to Atlanta for a starting role.

12+ wins and a trip to the playoffs seem a given. Their season really begins in earnest when it comes time to overcome a team of the caliber of Jacksonville, New England or Indianapolis.

Denver:

When you scour the transactions list of a team that finished 7-9 and featured some appalling defence - finding that your biggest upheaval was on offence is puzzling.

Releasing Javon Walker and Travis Henry and replacing them with the defrosted corpses of Darrell Jackson and Michael Pittman seems a bit like polishing a turd.

Darrell Jackson and Michael Pittman take a break from their offseason workouts to play some chequers!

The biggest move might have been the pickup via trade of Defensive Tackle DeWayne Robertson. Robertson is a big mobile DT that could help shore up the defence, though probably not by enough.

The man who feels like he was responsible for game winners in all 7 Bronco games last year, Jason Elam moves on to the Falcons.

5 to 6 wins seems a little optimistic here. This is a team that needed to rebuild and ended up in stopgap mode.

Oakland Raiders:

2008's big improvers. 4-12 in 2007/08 and could be in line for a far better year.

The biggest growth will come on offense, Last years number one draft pick, JaMarcus Russell is a beast at QB who will take this years opening snap. Javon Walker will give him a realistic receiving threat and this years first rounder Darren McFadden will offer explosiveness out of the backfield.

The defensive numbers from last year LOOK weak. But this is a decent defensive unit. Most of the issue was the inordinate amount of time that this group spent on the field due to the NFL's worst offense. Ever???

Fortunately for Raiders fans, this year won't feature as much of this if you are watching NFL gameday.

Oakland Raiders at 01:25
1-10-OAK 46	(1:25) (Shotgun) 12-J.McCown pass incomplete short left to 84-J.Porter.
2-10-OAK 46	(1:20) 33-D.Rhodes left tackle to IND 47 for 7 yards (96-K.Dawson).
3-3-IND 47	(:56) (Shotgun) 12-J.McCown pass incomplete short right to 33-D.Rhodes.
4-3-IND 47	(:51) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to IND 5, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 34-T.Rushing

The results may take a while to come but the offense looks set for years. 6-7 wins.

Kansas City Chiefs:

Smart teams don't give out their richest ever contract to a guy after a year where they give him 457 fucking carries.

This is why they suck this year and probably for the next three.

That is all.

3-13.

Take the under.

NFC West: A Tale of Mediocrity

To cut a long story short, the NFC West is rubbish, consisting of four teams who have been very average for the last two years and three of which who have been average for longer. Seattle made the Superbowl in 2006 before stumbling upon mediocrity. They have won this division for the past four seasons only because it is the worst division in the NFL by a mile.

The Professor has already previewed Arizona and their possibly syphilis-ridden quarterback.

San Francisico have turned to new offensive co-ordinator Mike Martz to revamp a stagnant offense; this will either see them battling Seattle for the division title or it will backfire spectacularly and Martz's ticking time-bomb heart will finally blow up. When you are looking to implement a complex passing scheme into an offense with J.T O'Sullivan, Shaun Hill and Alex Smith to pick from at QB and wide receivers who are just okay, people are right to be unconvinced. Running back Frank Gore is the key; he had a disappointing 07/08, hampered by injuries and the death of his mother, but if he can get his running game going again the Niners will be competitive.

St. Louis are still rebuilding/sucking and RB Steven Jackson is holding out for a new contract. If I'm in the Rams management, I pay up. And throw in a few sweeteners. Without Jackson they are a dead carcass which will be stinking it up all season long. You don't have Tom Brady at QB or another gun RB...Pay up. Maybe even throw in a Lamborghini...

Seattle have a decent enough QB in Hasselbeck, a solid enough defense. On that basis they might make it five NFC West titles in a row as Arizona, San Francisco and St. Louis will no doubt be shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly throughout the season.

Now that's out of the way we can talk some real NFL.

Arizona Cardinals Preview

Channel 10's announcement that it will be covering some NFL games this year on HD has us excited at WHAB!

We will go through a bunch of NFL teams - what to look for, players to watch etc.

Starting with the Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona were overwhelmingly average in 2007. An 8-8 record in a mediocre devision. A +/- of 5. Not much has changed in the Cardinals personnel this year. So the real improvements will come based on health and another year of experience for rising star Matt Leinart.

Players to watch: Matt Leinart. Franchise quarterback who has shown that he is not at all picky based on his reported tryst with Paris Hilton. Gun arm, heaps of vision and confidence. However, based on Arizona's consistent issues in the offensive line, if syphilis doesn't get him first, a massive defensive lineman will. My bet is Julius Peppers in Week 8.

Great work Matt! Sort of... not at all...

Leinart will have the best receiving tandem in the NFL working with him in Anquan Boldin and Larry "Fitty" Fitzgerald. Scoring points has never been the Cardinals problem. Even with the likes of decline phase Kurt Warner and Jake Plummer under centre. The problem has always been one of defence. Not much should be different this year, with a very inexperienced secondary typified by their most reliable corner Amari Rolle moving to Free safety.

Prediction: Being in the NFL's worst division may be the tonic that the Cardinals need to advance to the playoffs this year. Seattle seem to be moving in the wrong direction, and St Louis and San Francisco seem at least a year away. I will put them as division winners with a mediocre 9-7 record.