Yep... it's in the WEST!
Where even on a feature race day, you can see these guys!
(Looks a little like the Captain!)
So, withour further adieu, your Brown Moccasin preview.
1. All American (B Rawiller)
Captain: Not too keen on this one. I think the Blue Diamond form this year, like most years, is not as good as some of the Sydney lead-ups. With the exception of Miss Finland I can't think off the top of my head of any other horses coming out of the Diamond running well in the Slipper. I also think the pair that quinellaed the Gold Coast Magic Millions have superior form. The Skyline Stks that he won was to me a B Graders race. While I can't totally write off a Hayes-trained horse, from barrier 14 he'll likely find a traffic jam as they straighten even if jockeys are bringing horses wider at the turn. A plus is his dead track form with the likelihood of rain affected going but the $10 is enough to have me looking elsewhere.
JB: Likes the distance, handled himself well at M.V, R'Wick and Caulf. Barrier draw will hurt and there are faster horses in this race.
Professor: Consistent - like most of these - but has not yet put in a run that jumps out at you. The barrier makes it tougher, obviously, so think that the $10 is a bit tight. Disagree about the quality of the Blue Diamond form, but being well beaten in that same Diamond probably not a good sign. PASS!
2. Krupt: (H Bowman)
Captain: Even less keen on the formline out of the Todman. Nicely drawn and a solid 2nd on the dead but really can't have him at $21. Manager of the syndicate of owners is M. Burns..."Well, that's odd ... I've just robbed a man of his livelihood, and yet I feel strangely empty. Tell you what, Smithers - have him beaten to a pulp."
JB: Run in the Todman was sub 36 seconds, probably the widest barrier you would be happy with, can run but will take more.
Professor: Lost two some average Sydney two year olds in his first two starts. Then came out and won the Todmaaaan. That makes me think that the Todman is a pretty ordinary form race and old Krupt would be one to avoid - the $21 is well tight.
3. Siderius (L Cassidy)
Captain: Beaten 2.4L by All American in the Skyline, he then took advantage of a dream run to win the Pago Pago. That was at this track and on dead rated ground. It will probably take another dream run to and some terrible luck to other runners for him to win but he's drawn for a nice run and perhaps a place chance at odds.
JB: Will take more than what this horse offers.
Professor: The Pago Pago form doesn't look strong either. Nice juicy price at $41, Maybe improving?? Well drawn. Would think about going each way on this one. Probably the worst results from him have been on rain affected ground. There's another knock.
4. Over the Wicket (Z Purton)
Captain: My view of Over The Wicket is that perhaps he should try around the wicket. Even if just for the few balls before the luncheon break. He ran close 2nd's to All American and Sidereus but before that was cleaned up to the tune of 3.8L by Sebring who bungled the start badly. I guess my real issue is the overuse of cricketing cliches in racing. Over The Wicket, Down The Wicket, Owzat etc...is Mark Waugh responsible for this? Or more likely Simon O'Donnell? Nice draw and sound wet form but I think I'll be able to find something at better odds for my multiples.
JB: If the price is right, otherwise factor into your multiples.
Professor: This is a pretty cool horse. It never looked like having the polish for a race like this, but it has also never put a foot wrong. Consistent enough to sneak some prize money but I am not at all taken by the $18 on offer at this stage. It should drift before Saturday and would sneak some each way money on Portelli's chance if it blows south of $30.
5. Related (C Newitt)
Captain: I find it very hard to believe that a horse can win a Slipper at just it's second start. And when the first start was a 2nd in the much-maligned-in-this-blog Todman I find it even harder to believe. Then I see it is at $12 despite being unknown in the wet, still learning, and out of gate 16 and I wonder how many cretins have backed this horse to win the Slipper/Melbourne Cup double because it's trained by Bart Cummings. Way too short. Pass.
JB: One for those who bet on Cummings regardless of the race.
Professor: Every big race, people get all moist about horses that flash home in their most recent start. And adding to the moisture on the panties of S O'Donnell was the fact that it is trained by Bart Cummings. Two things to think about here: 1) It flashed home in a pretty weak form race. 2) You can sit back against 9 horses on a genuine tempo (half of whom are very ordinary) and flash home. Try doing that against 15 horses - all of whom have a bit of quality about them. Get as moist as you want O'Donnell but this one is not going to win. It's like people just watched the SAAB and today is Cup day. Christ. The Todman formline - as I will suggest ad nauseum is also very very ordinary.
[WET TRACK ALERT!!!! The sire Elusive Quality has probably the best wet track progeny in this field. Could well be the only true duck in the field!] Will explain this much more in my $50 slipper post. Suffice it to say, it is a part of the GREATEST wet track bloodline [Mr Prospector] in the history of racing.
6. Reann: (D Dunn)
Captain: In my opinion, Blue Diamond form is not the best guide. This one got the wobbles in it's first clockwise run in the Todman. Would consider putting in my multiples but for that run. Beaten 3L by Krupt so would need to improve by more than that to be winning here. Gate and give out of the ground a big help but I am inclined to leave him out lest he lose the plot turning for home again.
JB: Loves the Dead track, better options available.
Professor: Blue Diamond winner. Drawn well. The nagging question about this guy is whether he can't handle the Sydney way of going or whether he just 'got a case of the Canterbury's' as his trainer David Hayes suggested. I will believe Hayes (first time for everything) and invest in Reann. Like it!
7. Von Costa de Hero (C Williams)
Captain: I just don't understand all the fuss about this horse in relation to this race. Certainly looks a nice middle distance/staying type but think he'll find this a bit sharp. I can't find anything I really like about this horse to be honest. Not a big fan of Hayes having a third of the field in every big 2.y.o. event. Craig Williams doesn't make me want to jump up and scream for him. Darley buying him for 100 billion dollars. Bad gate. First time the Sydney way. If he wins I'll be reaching for the bottle that's for sure.
JB: There's no denying this is a fast horse, but will take a sub 35 sec race.
Professor: Is there a combo I despise more than Williams and Hayes? Yes (see Boss, G + anyone), but not many. This guy, along with Burgeis are probably looking for the Sires, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is a panty moistening charge to the line from this guy, but I think others will be sharper. The wet track changes my mind slightly. Has both Encosta De Lago and SCENIC in its bloodlines.
8. Sebring (G Boss)
Captain: In my opinion, this is one of the top three most talented horses in this race. Perfectly drawn and unbeaten, all three wins on rain affected going including a slow track. Distance looks no problem with an 1100m win on the slow and he was pulling away in his other two wins. However I am torn since Blake Shinn (suspended) is being replaced by Glen Boss. For all his Group 1 glory there are some horror stories to go with it. Snitzel, a horse who in it's lead-up race won by 7L, dead-heated for 3rd in the 2005 Magic Millions Classic. This was a horse who later went on to beat Takeover Target into 3rd in an Oakleigh Plate. He was upstaged that day by Bradbury's Luck and Emit Time who went on to do nothing for the rest of their careers. The reason for this was that he was 5 wide the trip. Boss described it as a "flat run". "He surprised me," Boss added. "He never got in close to the fence in the race but when I asked him for something there was no ping. He just wacked away." Most horses whack away when they're 5 wide in a high pressure race I 've found. There are other stories too, but I digress. I don't really hate Glen Boss, just don't trust him with my hard earned. The other issue with Sebring is that he missed the start badly at his first 2 starts. A repeat of that in this field will see him finish middle of the pack. I will include this horse in my multiples and may yet persuade myself at the last minute to plunge on it. One of the main chances.
JB: Question the distance for this horse compared to the others trained for 1200m.
Professor: The biggest knock I can find on this guy is that his only exceptional run came over 1000 metres. He was in that Over the Wicket - Siderius class over 1100, and one has to wonder if he will drop back further over the extra 100. Looks like an out and out sprinter. By the way, I never bet on Glen Boss in big races. The joy of picking a winner is always promptly erased by Glen Boss dancing and talking himself up. Cock.
9. Hips Don't Lie (D Beadman)
Captain: You can't help but wonder what Amelia's Dream would have done in this race with Hips Don't Lie at $15. Looks a decent place chance, not sure if she has what's required to win though. She is a hard one to line up, a bit inconsistent perhaps? Maybe she put it all together last start and maybe her run in the Silver Slipper was okay too considering she beat all but the distant winner home. There's one of these horses in every race. I just don't know about her. A chance at a place but not exactly at juicy each way odds. Think I'll leave her out. Which is not to say you should.
JB: If you can look past the run in the Blue diamond, then you can see this horse lifting and being right amongst it. Don't overlook.
Professor: Hayes talks up this being his 4th best runner. Beadman on board tends to dispute this view somewhat. Very open field and Beadman could sneak this home. Not sure. The Reisling is starting to look like a very strong form race after Portillo got up last weekend.
10. Portillo (R Quinn)
Captain: I have a bit of time for this one but will need the speed on and the track to suit. Hit the line hard to win the Gimcrack and the Magic Night. Don't think the Canterbury track helped her racing pattern and the run there in the Reisling was okay anyway. If the track is favouring backmarkers this is the one I want to be on. Two wins from 3 starts on dead tracks a big plus. There is something Forensics about her...
JB: Getting faster with every ride, will trouble your multiple if you leave behind.
Professor: Came with a big run to grab Sugar Babe last weekend. Probably wont get quite so many favours in the Moccassin.
11. Stripper (J Lloyd)
Captain: Was thinking about including her in my multis but news of a foot abscess has dampened any enthusiasm. Form is solid and all her starts have been on wet tracks. Maybe she'll still run but just cannot take an injured horse in a Golden Slipper.
JB: Roxane, you don't have to put on the red dress tonight. I like it.
Professor: She works HARD for the money. So HARD for the money. She works hard for the money so you better treat her RIGHT! Only run that I worry about was on a slow track. Think that you will shop much better than $21 on raceday. Barrier a big help. Think this is your best roughie. Has some Zabeel in it from the Dam's side (Mudlark) and some Danehill Dancer (not so much...) What this guy does on rain affected ground a mystery.
12. Sugar Babe (D Nikolic)
Captain: A good chance. Think this is one that will eat up wet ground but could take this out in the dry as well. Her form is good, even the Gold Coast run was respectable and considering I like Portillo as my swooper I can't knock Sugar Babe after the Magic Night. Also strikes me as being pretty foolproof. Can see things going wrong in the race for some of the other runners but expect Sugar Babe to be thereabouts at the finish. Good value at $13.
JB: Dropped its dot against Augusta Proud at the G'Coast. Will prefer a little less sting in the ground. Can prove itself here.
Professor: Went far too early last weekend in the Magi. The run in the Millions can be excused as it started in the carpark. Before that - faultless. Nikolic on board and a slightly improved gate. Chance.
13. Anatomica (D Oliver)
Captain: I think I would probably have preferred to see Anatomica have another run before this race. I also have the feeling that gate 3 is going to be less than ideal for her and that she may strike trouble. No doubt has some ability but think there are others I'd rather be on in the $10-$15 range.
JB: With Oliver on board I will leave for my girlfriend to pick.
Professor: Might have some real ability. Chased home Hips Don't Lie in a great form race in only its second start. Great gate, great horseman. If you can shop better than $14, you really should. Choisir's don't go well with the give in the ground. Now a definite PASS.
14. Augusta Proud (C Lindop)
Captain: I doubted her Adelaide form before the Gold Coast race which was a big mistake. What a win, what a great ad lib ride and I see no reason why she can't complete the Magic Millions Classic/Golden Slipper double. Wet track ability is a bit of a query but no-one really knows with 2.y.o's; I like to give them all the benefit of the doubt until they prove me wrong. She's six from six and Clare Bear is riding brilliantly. $7.50 seems on the money and I'll be throwing her into my multiples.
JB: Plenty to like about this horse - except the price. Every chance here, good enough to win first up record is no lie.
Professor: Clears every hurdle put in front of it. The hotness of Lindop on board. Will probably have no trouble getting to the front from gate 1. Will look the winner for a long time. Mystery in the wet. Never run on worse than good but it's Sire produces a lot of real Ducks.
15. Burgeis (C Brown)
Captain: Think she'll be a better horse over more ground but I wouldn't rule her out of this altogether. She'll hit the line harder than most and may be one of the horses that can take advantage if they steer clear of the rail from her wide gate. Will obviously take a nice ride to get her in the finish however and I would certainly be looking for a much better price than the $17 on offer before considering.
JB: No chance.
Professor: Drew the car park. Probably wants more ground. Same story and neigh on identical form to Von Costa De Hero. Why then do we hear about old Von Costa constantly?? And let me say, even with the gate I think this is a better 1200 metre horse than Von Costa. Barrier starting to be less of a concern as you know he is going to get back and boom home anyway. Starting to warm to this girls chances. The tempo will be hot and think this could be the best of the closers. Catbird out of Danehill which means that the wet track probably won't suit.
16. She's Meaner (N Rawiller)
Captain: Think she's fantastic value at $15 if she handles the wet. Her run at the Gold Coast was super when you bear in mind the the leaders in all the other races capitulated. Not too concerned about her barrier as she has the early speed to either cross and lead or take a nice sit. I personally think Nash Rawiller will take her straight to the front. Her form is very good...if only we had some wet track form to go on on her. They'd not want to get to far back because she's going to take some catching.
JB: With the barrier has alot ahead of it. Hard to let go by, worth some time. Would love to think this a great sales pitch for a pimp.
Professor: Would have loved to see this thing draw a better gate. Likely to slide into 12 which is not great. Good chance even from there. Again, hard to lay out a betting strategy prior to race day. Need to see who blows out. If she does, then we'll talk. Should handles some give with a lot of NZ in its pedigree.
17. (EM1) Sienna's Fury
Captain: With the possibility of Stripper being scratched looks like she may get a run. You can never say never in racing but I'd be very surprised if she was first to greet the judge. Her form is not terrible but she hasn't really looked like winning any of those races. She'll probably have the best place odds in the field so maybe leave this one to your missus to throw $2 a place on.
Professor: She's in now... Would love to have a reason to take the $61 apart from pure unadulterated greed. Can't find a smashing one. Finished about as far behind Reann as All American did in the Blue Diamond. So if you are going to take the small odds on AA, take the juice here.
18. (EM2) Typhoon Fury
Captain: Will likely not run.
Professsors doctorate in puntology:
Was thrown two curveballs in the last day with a lot of rain and the scratching of my best roughie - Stripper. That just blows. So the first search is for a roughie or two. Let's take Siderius as a good roughie - may be an improving type. You can almost take Reann a roughie the way she has been blowing. Probably shop somewhere around $25 come race day and that is just wild.
On Pace Bias:
Augusta Proud - She's Meaner - Sebring - Sugar Babe - Reann
Related (only because i think it will be a duck) - Portillo - Von Costa - Augusta Proud.
Things have certainly changed now that at least a slow track looks assured. I have had to consider Related and Von Costa as they are bred to race well on rain affected ground. At this stage given $50 to play with I would look into $10/$10 on Reann, $15 on Augusta Proud and $15 on one of the top three run on's that I suggested here. Will confirm that tonight/tomorrow in the punting post mk II. Siderius each way another looker.
I would forget about any Catbird/Danehill Dancer progeny in the mud. So Burgeis and Stripper out. Also any Choisir - Anatomica. The rest COULD handle the mud. Think that related and Von Costa will do it best, though.JB at his best:
Augusta Proud will be the one to beat, enough horses here to make a name for themselves including Stripper, Sugar Babe and She's Meaner. My money will be each way on Stripper and She' Meaner. All thats left is to count the cash
The Captain's selections:
1. She's Meaner
3. Sugar Babe
4. Augusta Proud
2. Augusta Proud
3. Sugar Babe
Best roughies: Well look like there are only two this year, Sidereus and Sienna's Fury. We're out in the Western suburbs so clean out the ashtray from your car and get rid of your shrapnel on this motley duo!