Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Your WHAB Doomben Cup Preview

Well the Doomben Cup is on on Saturday! 2020m at Weight for Age. The field this year looks a lot better than in previous years, with some big winners at their last starts headlining this field. Scenic Shot, fresh off his win in the Hollindale is the favourite at $5 and looks to be hard to beat. Though, the next line of betting which features Eskimo Queen (Fresh off a great win in the Sydney Carnival), Sarrera (who can count Tuesday Joy amongst his scalps in his last start) and Viewed would probably have been very short priced favourites in prior runnings of this race. Cinque Cento and Above Deck are your most recent winners. And a real horse of quality - Defier - won this race in 2004.

JB is on sabbatical. In Haiti building houses for orphans. Or some such.

So to this years field:

1. Grand Zulu (59) $21

Captain Carnage: Wins the BMW as a three year old easily beating Mummify and Makybe Diva. Latest run a 2.1L 3rd in the Wagga Wagga Gold Cup...if would be fair to say his halcyon days are behind him.

Professor Chaos: Certainly hasn't shown alot in the last few years. Coming up to Brisbane for the carnival is possibly it's last chance to show something.. anything. This is a fairly hot field by Doomben Cup standards so you should probably be looking elsewhere. It's a shame because the Zulu could've been anything 3 years ago. Weight for age is a plus with this horse, as in handicap racing it still gets punished for its deeds of '04. Maybe this horses best chance is a head-to-head race with Railings in the "hit's of yesteryear" handicap. I'd back him in that.

2. Scenic Shot (59) $5

Captain Carnage: A deserved favourite. Was second in the Group 1 Turnbull to Devil Moon last spring, second to Marasco at WFA in Perth and won the Hollindale last week with perhaps a bit in hand. Looks tough enough and has obviously been set for this.

Professor Chaos: Coming in off a big win at the Gold Coast in the Hollindale. Has mixed it with some of the top horses in its career and may just have a class edge. I'm not backing him, but that doesn't mean that I don't think he's in this. I just like Viewed more.

3. Sarrera (59) $8

Captain Carnage: I really was stunned by his win in the Queen Elizabeth. Could he do that again? A few of those he beat were backing up/at the end of their campaigns but he won so easily that I can't even think of writing him off here. Big chance, especially with a spot of rain.

Professor Chaos: Mudlark of sorts, who is coming off a big win at Randwick in the Queen Elizabeth. The talk after the race was that it found some wet ground to run on?? How does that help. Horses who like the mud still run quicker times on the dry. They just do less badly on the mud than other horses. Anyway, Sarrera is a hard one to line up. I think it is well and truly good enough to win.

4. Emerald Jack (59) $41

Captain Carnage: One of the nice roughies in the field. Doubt that WFA will suit but is very capable at this distance. You can see yourself getting stuck behind a group of young lasses in the betting line each putting $1 each way on Emerald Jack when they could possibly pool their money and put in one $20 each way bet which would at least give you time to get to the fence. Serenity now.

Professor Chaos: Serenity now, insanity later. You'd be hard pressed to find a better $41 shot than this. Rattled home and lost by 1.8L to Nuclear Sky. In case you haven't noticed: Nuclear Sky is so hot right now. Maybe a few drops of rain could help.

5. Stormhill (59) $26

Captain Carnage: This horse has frustrated me many times but that was maybe because he was being set for races like the Stradbroke rather than more suitable trips. Not far off Scenic Shot in the Hollindale but I personally don't think he can turn the tables here. A definite chance nevertheless and at a nice price.

Professor Chaos: Part of the bunch that weren't too far behind Scenic Shot at the Coast. Comes into it here as a leader with the short straight of Doomben. I can just see myself willing him home there.

6. Spinney (59) $12

Captain Carnage: Surprised me a little with his strong frontrunning run behind Scenic Shot at the Coast. That must surely have been his career best run however and it will take another career best run to win this. Will be thereabouts but ultimately I think Scenic Shot is the better horse.

Professor Chaos: Sat forward and was brave in the Hollindale. At Doomben it has the chance to go one better. Probably can find more to like about others at that price though.

7. Legendary Man (59) $31

Captain Carnage: Has good form over this distance but that may be a bit misleading. His best run this time in was over 1400 in the Newmarket at Newcastle. I can't see how he's going to go from running third to Fulmonti in a Group 3 handicap to winning a Doomben Cup at WFA.

Professor Chaos: Agree with the Captain here. Was a nice run behind Fulmonti, and I would back him to beat that field this week. This field however is a very different proposition.

8. Rampant Lion (59) $41

Captain Carnage: One that ran surprisingly well at WFA last start and given his price and okay form you're entitled to box him in your trifectas and first fours. This is definitely as far as he wants it though so be prepared to miss out on the trifecta or first four by let's say one place, maybe two...Doesn't it give you the royal shits when that happens. I'm primarily talking about you and your last 100m in the 2003 Melbourne Cup Zagalia!

Professor Chaos: Went backwards late in the Hollindale. Obviously given his 4/1 quote in that affair someone has some wraps on him. Not for me.

9. Viewed (59) $5.50

Captain Carnage: Wow, that last run was hot. Hot like Hansel. Weight for age a bit of a query but like I said, he's so hot right now.

Professor Chaos: Getting to weight for age is the ONLY query on this fellow. I could have made a case for Musket or Nuclear Sky in this field a couple of weeks ago. Then this guy put 4 Lenghts on those two!!! This is my top pick by a considerable margin. Indeed he is so hot right now. I can't express to you just how big a tick of approval this gets from the Professor.

10. Luvuleo (59) $101

Captain Carnage: If he's going to teach colts to run real good then he's going to have to be least three times faster!

Professor Chaos: Finished behind Grand Zulu in the Wagga Cup. You'd be hard pressed backing the Zulu in this field. You'd be even harder pressed backing the thing that is giving it 3.0 kgs back on that last start. PASS, PASS, PASS.

11. Eskimo Queen (56.5) $5.50

Captain Carnage: I have voiced my concerns about Eskimo Queen and her lack of consistency before. However, she loves Brisbane. A big chance if she turns up.

Professor Chaos: Eskimo Queen is in my "never to back again" bin. You have to think that this race could suit her but, not with my cash. Maybe it will lash out at Viewed in the gates and ass punch me like in the Caulfield cup when I had a nice bit of cash on Maldivian at fixed odds. Screw you Eskimo Queen.

12. Like It Is (56.5) $15

Captain Carnage: I'll tell it like it is; I think connections are wasting time and money sending this one up here. $15...I call shenanigans!

Professor Chaos: Lost to Benson (And possibly Mr Belvedere) in his last start. Pass.

13. Reggie (56.5) $21

Captain Carnage: Will be fit as a fiddle for this. Interestingly didn't go on to the Sydney Cup but was kept for this. $21 is a nice price punters.

Professor Chaos: Hard to not be interested in a horse of this quality at a price like that. 2000 is her best trip from what I have seen. Great Value.

14. Lasoron (56.5) $15

Captain Carnage: Would like to see her drift in the market. Could definitely get interested if the price is right. Ran on nicely in the Hollindale and probably prefer her to the second and third horses there over the longer trip at Doomben. Could be the knockout.

Professor Chaos: Tough to have this at $15. Made some top late ground in the Hollindale. A good chance but I would take a little more value to be interested.

15. Trick of Light (56.5) $12

Captain Carnage: Would take some trickery indeed for an Adelaide mile winner to pop up and pinch this. $12...great value. You might as well back a greyhound at the same price and hope for the best. Much better value for money.

Professor Chaos: Don't you listen to the CAPTAIN. You should never ever back a greyhound. You should also leave this horse well alone. Last time I saw this run this kind of trip it was against WHAB SUPERSTAR MOLOTOV. Pass.

16. Lectrice (56.5) $41

Captain Carnage: Might be aiming a bit too high here and perhaps trying to run too far.

Professor Chaos: No. Maybe this race would be more suitable

17. Mission Critical (55.5) (EM) $13

Captain Carnage: If he gets a run will be first turning for home...Just don't rate him at $13. Ridiculous price. If he gets a run will probably be at about $8. And like I said, will be first turning for home...

Professor Chaos: If this horse gets a start it could be real knockout material. Bowls along in front, nice weight, short Doomben Straight... Trained by the sneakiest man in world racing. Moroney always finds the right races for his horses.

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