Friday, May 23, 2008

WHAB's Doomben 10,000 Form Guide!!!

Professor Chaos' Executive Summary: If you couldn't be bothered reading all of my discussion below (you probably have ADHD), I can summarize this race as follows. Apache Cat very hard to beat. But you can't take $2.20 in a race like this.. can you? So the best chances to beat it are Murtajill (looks like this is its race), Reigning To Win, and Vormista. If $6 doesn't float your boat that much either then bigger fun-times can be had backing the Jackal or Helideck. Every thing else (***unless you have something insider on LA MONTAGNA***) is a pointless set your money on fire exercise.

My probable course of action is to load up on one of the horses on the second line (dependent on price) and then have a bit of cash on the other two roughies. Leaning towards Reigning To win at this stage as the best on the second line but many things change come race day. Will also be keyed into the market on La Montagna. If it moves...

1. Apache Cat (3) $2.20

PC: Even with all of the mystery blood tests in the world this horse should be hard to beat. The late charge from Vormista in the BTC Sprint lead me at the time to think that Vormista could turn the tables in the 10,000. A quick look at the two of these horses beyond 1200 metres tends to make you stick with the Cat. $2.20 is a risk in this field though. A big risk.

CC: Sure $2.20 is not a great price but that won't bother people who got a better price weeks ago like my good self. The Cat is awesome and is gunning for his fifth straight Group 1 race. There has been a lot of talk about how Vormista nearly beat him in the BTC Cup two weeks ago. Well nearly isn't good enough. Anyone who has keenly watched a replay of that race can see the Cat was edging away from Vormista at the line. The 1350m of the 10,000 holds no fears for the Cat but Vormista has a distance query. I'm sure the Cat will take improvement from his last run and am looking forward to watching him being crowned Doomben 10,000 champion trackside. Go the Cat!

2. Hard to Catch (10) $71

PC: Probably not here.

CC: Will be pretty easy to catch here. Trainer Pat Duff has even conceded that he is in the field because there is good prizemoney down to fifth. Just not quite in the class of some of these other runners.

3. Reigning to Win (8) $5.50

PC: I don't really know what to do with this guy. Came back and put in an okay run. Probably wasn't suited by the heavy. Probably found the Cat over 1200 far too sharp first up... All that could help him reverse the 2.8L result. Would love to have seen a run between then and now though. Or a trial. Or something... Heavy Hitter Bowman on board. (NOT THE BOSS) Hurrah!

CC: There's talent in this fellow, I just get the feeling he has been the victim of circumstances. Wet tracks, being tried over 2000m, in hindsight perhaps being set for the wrong races. A real chance, ticks at the distance and track, though has to beat the Cat at WFA here.

4. The Jackal (5) $31

CC: Just doesn't have the class to win. Looks okay at WFA and might be able to sneak a place.

PC: Put in a booming run last start against the Cat. Looked to be gobbling up the leading group in another 100. Problem with the Cat is that you watch his races and think that he can't go any further and then next start he wins again. Maybe?? $31 says why not? Paul St. Vincent, the trainer of The Jackal is an interesting case. He had to work another job for years (like Cabbie Joe Janiak) to make his racing dreams come true.

Trainer of The Jackal: Paul St. Vincent...

Former career of Paul St. Vincent - heckling muppet.

5. Double Dare (9) $21

PC: Prefer the guy above at a much better quote. Can't see any sensible reason to think that the Dare can win this.

CC: Another place chance given he has improved since his 1.5L 6th this track/distance in last year's BTC Sprint. That was his third last run and he probably needed some more hard racing before a Doomben 10,000.

6. Helideck (7) $13

CC: Here's your knockout. At $13 he is the best value runner in the field. Keeps jumping the hurdles put in front of him; however, this hurdle is really high. He has to jump over the Cat! WFA may be his undoing but for mine he is the most likely to spring a surprise win.

PC: Makes me want to back him with the last two starts... Where on earth has this horse come from??? Progressing swiftly through the grades and this is his big test. Going from a friendly weight against some classy Brisbane horses to Weight For Age against the Cat. That's the BIG query here. In spite of that, I'll have something reasonable on Helideck.

7. Murtajill (4) $4.60

CC: Don't think three year olds come in that well at WFA. He has good lead up form and will be hard to hold out if the track favours the leaders though I never really want to be on a leader in a Doomben 10,000. It's high pressure and more often than not the pacesetters have had enough at the top of the straight. No doubt has ability but I think others offer much better value

PC: Maybe this is the perfect race for Murtajill. Sits forward and gave Racing to Win something to catch in his last start. If the track is suiting the on pace types, you have to give this guy a chance.

8. Turffontein (11) $71

PC: I like saying the name of this horse with a Tappa Henning South African Rugby Referee (TM) voice. It makes me smile. I'm smiling now.

CC: Or a South African Super 14 commentator accent; "Lovely jinking run from Turffontein". Would be stretching it a bit to think he could win this. A perfectly timed storm could see his ears prick up though.

9. La Montagna (1) $41

CC: It's hard to work out horses when coming back from long injury layoffs. She seems to be going okay but is probably still a little underdone. Certainly worth a place bet on the chance she finds her best.

PC: Could be working up to something big. Maybe in two weeks on Straddie day, rather than here though. Follow the market. You know that it is up to this kind of race. But is it ready to roll???

10. Juste Momente (2) $31

PC: Not here... not the worst.. this the testing material... (insert your own form guide cliche and save me the trouble!)

CC: Not keen. Place preferred. Looking to others. Pass. How's that PC?

11. Vormista (12) $7

CC: Too much has been made of the BTC Cup. A good horse but the Cat will have her measure over this trip and possibly other runners will as well.

PC: Could turn the tables on the Cat. Will need luck from the barrier. Can beat anyone on his day though so the price looks fair.

12. Tan Tat De Lago (6) $51

CC: On form it would be mind boggling if she won and quite puzzling if she placed. However I'm prepared to give her a place chance because of her trainer's uncanny knack of springing surprises with travelling horses.

PC: Is this a Class 6 field?? No. Okay. Then I probably will leave TTDL well alone.

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