Thursday, October 2, 2008

Group racing preview for Saturday

Starting with the Epsom:

Very even field in this race. Raheeb a deserved favourite after thrashing a hot field in Newcastle. However, as always value must be found. Until it drew barrier 18, I was very keen on Theseo. Even after drawing the car park it is hard for me to not be on. After a massive run at WFA, Theseo comes into this race well suited. If he can get across with the good early speed he is renowned for, I don't see why he can't win this. There are a number of formlines at play here, but I think that the best is by far the George Main - as such, Theseo, Mentality and Gallant Tess come in well.

If you are keen on the Judged formline, why not take Spy Zaim at $101. Captain assures me that he put in a far better run than the winner on Saturday in the Bill Ritchie.

Musket's run in the Shannon is up. Lines up fairly well, and there has to be a lot of scope for improvement in a horse that is making just its 9th start at the age of 5.

Epsom tips:
Work around Gallant Tess - Theseo - Mentality - Musket
Spy Zaim.

Other horses to have a look at:

Hoystar (The Shorts) - this is his more appropriate distance and he will be too good.
Sunburnt Land (Gilgai) - Paying $9 and by far the class of the field. Get on him while he is still an emergency. If he gets in the field, you will wake up tomorrow to see $2.50. If you like value, why not try the old stager Mr Baritone at $21. Came from the tail of the field behind Typhoon Zed in a slowly run race last start. A genuine weight for age horse that is pretty well weighted here.
The Hussler might go down tomorrow - there are threats coming from all over the place! I am not betting on this race, but if you like Maldivian/Littorio/Guillotine/? for the Caulfield Cup, you should do it before tomorrow. At the moment, the price of everything in the cup is being inflated as there is a $2.50 favourite that may not run. If he doesn't finish off tomorrow, people will be off he Huss for the longer trips in a big hurry.

Best Bet: Hoystar
Best each-way: Mr Baritone


Captain Carnage said...

"Spy Zaim's run was as good, if not slightly better than the run of Judged" were my exact words. Judged was impressive but my point was, Judged is paying $9 and Spy Zaim $101.

Professor Chaos said...

Yeah.. I got excited. you need to relax guy. Look over there.

Getting a bit excited by Guillotine now. And the Simplest tilt in the Shorts. Spanking Mfuwe over this trip is a fantastic effort. Mfuwe lines up pretty well with the Sydney and Melbourne form.

Captain Carnage said...

Simplest is dramatically up in class but it was so easy that it wasn't funny. Hit the front turning and the jockey was having a peek over his shoulder 400m from home. A good value hope.