Friday, March 6, 2009

It should probably be called Newmarket Day, but...

1) Right now Gai Waterhouse winning three group 1 races tomorrow is paying $31 with Sportingbet. Given that I have tipped her horses in three group 1 races tomorrow, I'll have a little piece of that.

- There are dangers of course. Whilst I would not have too much interest in the $2 that Tuesday Joy is likely to pay tomorrow, I think that this is almost an ironclad lock of the day!

- Looking at the winners of the Newmarket since 2003, you are looking at a crop of superstars:
2008 Weekend Hussler
2007 Miss Andretti
2006 Takeover Target
2005 Alinghi
2004 Exceed And Excel
2003 Belle Du Jour (Thanks Captain)

When I scan this years field, the real superstar in the making I see is Northern Meteor, and I will probably put silly money on this tomorrow. I have a soft spot for Burdekin Blues though and will slip a little money that way as well. Want a true roughie? Look no further than 7th Rock. 200:1 if you play your cards right. And, oh yeah it ran a 1:07 in South Africa. Say what you want about using times etc but 1:07 anywhere in any conditions is hellah fast.

- Theseo looks great but if you don't like $2.20 you would be WELL advised to have a long look at Blutigeroo. A 2000 metre specialist - a poor mans Fields of Omagh if you will. And Finally C Little seems to have hit the right formula, a couple of hit outs over 1200-1600 and then pounce on the 2000. Theseo has been in the right place at the right time given the dearth of top class horses over the 2000, but I think he is vulnerable against the Roo. Or the Tiger.. whatever.

- Knock yourself out with the Guineas tomorrow. Heart of Dreams and Von Costa for me. But really, there are better races on tomorrow. Even though it is called "Guineas Day."


Captain Carnage said...

I have already spruiked Blutigeroo as a great roughie to anyone who will listen. His last run was super. Swick is the one in the Newmarket if you have been watching the tapes...last two runs on tape I have notes saying "back Swick in the Newmarket"! Agree comments RE Northern Meteor...happy to let 7th Rock go...

Captain Carnage said...

Can't believe we are agreeing on everything...Heart Of Dreams for me with Von Costa Da Hero good value at double figure odds...

Shirtman said...

Hindsight's 20/20, but that Newmarket trifecta should have been pretty doable. First and second the winners of the traditional lead ups in the Oakleigh and the Lightening, and third to the toughest little horse in the land.

Could never have Northern Meteor - first up with a questionable preparation, particularly when the biggest horse spruiker in the world said she wasn't confident he was 100% fit. Exposed.

Aichi though - what a little champ. Definitely has a group 1 win in him. I own his half brother. Well at least 10% of him. Mate of mine bought him as a weanling for $2,000. Now a 2yo having his first preparation, and yet to hit the track, but if he has even half the ticker of his big bro, could be in for some exciting times!

Captain Carnage said...

Shirtman, I have found that when Gai says her horses are not ready, they usually run well. Sometimes when she declares one of her's a special, I start seeing black cats, midgets, people stepping on cracks and the number 13 everywhere...I remember her constantly crapping on about Secret Land and I still remember Ian Craig's call when it had it's colours lowered at Gosford: "Secret Land, the favourite a flop!" It was a great call. Then it still runs favourite in the Slipper, after more Gai spruiking, but it's all Polar Success fattening the wallet!

Scenic Blast was my third pick but I only backed the two runners. Couldn't see any reason why he couldn't win. I was happy to leave out Swiss Ace as nearly every race on Oakleigh Plate day was dominated by leaders on the fence. Aichi...if I leave him alone, he runs well. If I unload serious $$$ on him he runs okay without winning or has terrible luck. I promise, for your sake, I will never bet on him again, so he should be thereabouts and have clear running every start now!

If your 2.y.o. has half the ticker of Aichi, and I never back it, then you could be on a good thing!