Sydney, Race 4: Perfect Vision Ilasik Stakes
The favourite More Joyous is a horse that I am more than willing to leave alone at $1.80. In its two race starts, we have seen it canter in by 5+ lengths and fail to finish. The first race is somewhat less impressive when examined properly - 1:05:05 over the 1100 is far from impressive and the margin speaks more to the poor quality of the opposition that it does to anything else. Melito was super impressive winning the Silver Slipper and looks a better bet at $4. Our Joan of Arc looks very much like 1200 will suit and could be the best bet in this race at $17. At large odds, Miss Macarthur is a rough place chance.
Sydney, Race 5: Myer canterbury Stakes
If Northern Meteor is ready to go, and runs out 1300 metres, it won't be beaten. They are two pretty big "ifs" so I will look elsewhere, especially at $2.30. The one I am looking to is El Cambio. A fantastic run behind Judged first-up. You could make a case for pretty much all of these, but I have a definite preference for form around Judged as I am banking on him as the star of the carnival.
Sydney, Race 6: Ranvet Stakes
Theseo is in fantastic form. However he is running in to some fantastic 2000 meter horses in this. Viewed and Moatize have been running well in unsuitably short races and 2000 metres is typically where you expect them to be winning. Newport couldn't have been any more impressive last week. The main concern with him is that Randwick seems to be where he is best. Zagreb obviously will win one of these at some point. I'll probably shop around here but right now I'm looking at the rougher pairing of Newport/Moatize.
Sydney, Race 7: Coolmore Classic
The scratching of Hot Danish brings some of the quotes in a little bit. I'll still be hoping to see $8-$10 somewhere about Judged because I think he is the best chance in this one. Illuminates ran on strongly last race off a middling pace. Absolutely Fabulous ran on well behind Hot Danish last start and should be peaking. I think there'll be a lot of pace on in this one and these three run-on types are the ones to work around. Glowlamp is an interesting runner if there is another scratching.