I Lied!

After promising you all that I wouldn't over-complicate the 2010 Newmarket Handicap, fuck it, I'm going to get right into the nitty-gritty! It's what I do. Just ask the Professor. There is no Swiss Ace setting a cracking tempo this year, in fact, there's no obvious leader. So perhaps we could do a lot worse than working around the on-pacers here: Wanted, Starspangledbanner, Light Fantastic, Shellscrape and King Pulse are in that group. I thought the guy from Best Bets was off his fucking trolley when he tipped King Pulse to win but upon closer inspection, he could well be on the money. An on-pacer, Group 1 placed down the straight and coming in with just 50kg's. If you're looking for a juicy first 4, leave out Starspangledbanner who is in single-figure odds and cops a penalty in the weights after winning the Oakleigh Plate. I'd be inclined to box the five of them though, because if they can stack the field up a bit and make it a sprint home, they all have the sprint to kick away and they'll have it between them. Whatever your stake, throw a fiver, tenner, lobster, pineapple or greenback on All Silent to cover yourself. He's serious.

Happy punting.

Newmarket Handicap 2010

The chaos of a 1200m race down the Flemington straight is nigh on impossible to sort out as it is...then sometimes the field splits in two and it becomes a lottery. A fascinating lottery though. So I think keeping it simple is the go here.

ALL SILENT

Pros: The best horse in the race, and the best sprinter currently on these shores. Looking at the past seven Newmarket winners;

2009 – SCENIC BLAST
2008 – WEEKEND HUSTLER
2007 – MISS ANDRETTI
2006 – TAKEOVER TARGET
2005 – ALINGHI
2004 – EXCEED AND EXCEL
2003 – BELLE DU JOUR

These were the best sprinters in the country for those given years. He loves Flemington and loves the Straight Six.

Cons: 57kg topweight. Capable, but not at his very best on wet tracks.

SHELLSCRAPE

Pros: Is at the nice price of $26. Featherweight of 50kg. Rain is predicted and loves it wet. Two runs down the Flemington straight for two Group 1 placings. And it's been a while since we've seen a Boss-a-thon...he's due.

Put your hands in the air if you're the best jockey in the world!

Cons: A possibly over-confident Boss. A possibly over-zealous Boss victory celebration. Last start was a shocker. It was his only shocker in his career though and maybe he didn't handle Moonee Valley?

Others at good value include Turffontein ($19), Headway ($21) and Light Fantastic ($31).

That's it. Not over-complicating this one in my head...

Professor chimes in late!

Not overcomplicating this one either. My top four for betting purposes would resemble the captains, which is not unremarkable given we've been emailing each other about this one all week, my passion for Light Fantastic gets it a nod is his, his passion for Shellscrape gets it my nod. The fact that I prefer All Silent on the dry, its topweight and the $5 means that I will at my peril not bet on the finest horse in the land and go with a top four (choose any order you please because you can get on them all!) of 5-16-14-12... if I have an early winner i'll be inclined to include the 4 as well.

To start with; Light Fantastic. Ultra-consistent, probably at his best with a wee bit of sting out of the ground, in great form.. at his best over the 1200. I'd be spruiking this one as a value bet at $15, so at $31.. yes please.

Shellscrape... well, see above. I'm convinced.

Headway - to me every bit the sprinter that the banner is, for some reason carrying only the 50kg to the banners 53.5. And paying triple. And best suited here. I'm on.

Gran Sasso.... My pick of the runs out of the Oakleigh... definitely wants the extra 100 metres... suited better on dead. Need I say more?

Uncomplicated. Bet on four horses at juicy odds and wait for the cash cow to need a good milking.

Coolmore Day!

A few comments on the bigger races tomorrow:

Sydney, Race 4: Perfect Vision Ilasik Stakes

The favourite More Joyous is a horse that I am more than willing to leave alone at $1.80. In its two race starts, we have seen it canter in by 5+ lengths and fail to finish. The first race is somewhat less impressive when examined properly - 1:05:05 over the 1100 is far from impressive and the margin speaks more to the poor quality of the opposition that it does to anything else. Melito was super impressive winning the Silver Slipper and looks a better bet at $4.  Our Joan of Arc looks very much like 1200 will suit and could be the best bet in this race at $17. At large odds, Miss Macarthur is a rough place chance.

Sydney, Race 5: Myer canterbury Stakes

If Northern Meteor is ready to go, and runs out 1300 metres, it won't be beaten. They are two pretty big "ifs" so I will look elsewhere, especially at $2.30. The one I am looking to is El Cambio. A fantastic run behind Judged first-up. You could make a case for pretty much all of these, but I have a definite preference for form around Judged as I am banking on him as the star of the carnival.

Sydney, Race 6: Ranvet Stakes

Theseo is in fantastic form. However he is running in to some fantastic  2000 meter horses in this. Viewed and Moatize have been running well in unsuitably short races and 2000 metres is typically where you expect them to be winning. Newport couldn't have been any more impressive last week. The main concern with him is that Randwick seems to be where he is best. Zagreb obviously will win one of these at some point. I'll probably shop around here but right now I'm looking at the rougher pairing of Newport/Moatize. 

Sydney, Race 7: Coolmore Classic

The scratching of Hot Danish brings some of the quotes in a little bit. I'll still be hoping to see $8-$10 somewhere about Judged because I think he is the best chance in this one. Illuminates ran on strongly last race off a middling pace.  Absolutely Fabulous ran on well behind Hot Danish last start and should be peaking. I think there'll be a lot of pace on in this one and these three run-on types are the ones to work around. Glowlamp is an interesting runner if there is another scratching.