Friday, March 5, 2010

Newmarket Handicap 2010

The chaos of a 1200m race down the Flemington straight is nigh on impossible to sort out as it is...then sometimes the field splits in two and it becomes a lottery. A fascinating lottery though. So I think keeping it simple is the go here.


Pros: The best horse in the race, and the best sprinter currently on these shores. Looking at the past seven Newmarket winners;

2005 – ALINGHI

These were the best sprinters in the country for those given years. He loves Flemington and loves the Straight Six.

Cons: 57kg topweight. Capable, but not at his very best on wet tracks.


Pros: Is at the nice price of $26. Featherweight of 50kg. Rain is predicted and loves it wet. Two runs down the Flemington straight for two Group 1 placings. And it's been a while since we've seen a Boss-a-thon...he's due.

Put your hands in the air if you're the best jockey in the world!

Cons: A possibly over-confident Boss. A possibly over-zealous Boss victory celebration. Last start was a shocker. It was his only shocker in his career though and maybe he didn't handle Moonee Valley?

Others at good value include Turffontein ($19), Headway ($21) and Light Fantastic ($31).

That's it. Not over-complicating this one in my head...

Professor chimes in late!

Not overcomplicating this one either. My top four for betting purposes would resemble the captains, which is not unremarkable given we've been emailing each other about this one all week, my passion for Light Fantastic gets it a nod is his, his passion for Shellscrape gets it my nod. The fact that I prefer All Silent on the dry, its topweight and the $5 means that I will at my peril not bet on the finest horse in the land and go with a top four (choose any order you please because you can get on them all!) of 5-16-14-12... if I have an early winner i'll be inclined to include the 4 as well.

To start with; Light Fantastic. Ultra-consistent, probably at his best with a wee bit of sting out of the ground, in great form.. at his best over the 1200. I'd be spruiking this one as a value bet at $15, so at $31.. yes please.

Shellscrape... well, see above. I'm convinced.

Headway - to me every bit the sprinter that the banner is, for some reason carrying only the 50kg to the banners 53.5. And paying triple. And best suited here. I'm on.

Gran Sasso.... My pick of the runs out of the Oakleigh... definitely wants the extra 100 metres... suited better on dead. Need I say more?

Uncomplicated. Bet on four horses at juicy odds and wait for the cash cow to need a good milking.

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