Tuesday, March 30, 2010

GOLDEN SLIPPER 2010

It's that time of year again; when two year old horses race for the most over-priced paycheck in the thoroughbred racing industry. Take the case of 2002 winner Calaway Gal. She not only never won another race, but she never even remotely looked like winning another race. But she won the second richest race on the Australian racing calendar. She isn't the only Slipper winner to go on to do absolutely nothing thereafter either. The $3.5 million purse doesn't make sense people, but our business here is finding the winner, First Four and a truckload of $cash$...

Selections were finalised 1/4/10 for a good/dead track, which is pretty much all you can work on for two year olds...for slow/heavy, we accept no responsibility whatsoever for the mayhem that may occur some 48 hours out.

1. Brightexpectations $6.50

Captain: I may not pick the First Four this year but I did hit this one at the staggeringly good odds of $51 last Thursday. At that time, Hinchinbrook, who narrowly beat Brightexpectations in the Skyline, was at $9. A Gai Waterhouse horse being aimed at the Slipper with some good-looking form at $51?! My eyes nearly popped out of my head as I frantically locked in that juicy $51. He qualified for the Slipper in the Pago Pago, and how! And he tumbled in all the way to $6.50...and that's the story of how you get massive overs...Needless to say, my top pick!

Professor: Thought he got away with walking last week. Doubt he gets that luxury in this race with Solar Charged, Chance Bye et al in this one. As such, I'm looking elsewhere at this price.

2. Hinchinbrook $15

Captain: He ran past Brightexpectations in the Todman, but seemed to die on his run just as Brightexpectations was getting his second wind. He showed a nice turn of foot that day in coming from the tail but was no match in the Pago Pago. Think he can still figure in the finish here after running on okay last week.

Professor: The pace in the Todman suited this guy, and he boomed home accordingly. The tempo in the Pago Pago didn't suit and he looked ordinary. Perhaps one-dimensional, but he looks like he might get the pace to suit here.

3. Decision Time $19

Captain: In the Todman, he kept finding the line behind Masquerader, who was my top Slipper pick before being ruled out with injury. So it's decision time, and I ain't gonna dick around, he's locked into my first four people. In fact, he's in my top two.

Professor: Great value given his solid form to date. The colts have been ignored, and he could be the best of them.

4. Beneteau $12

Captain: His last run just left a big question mark. Before that, his form was very good, and his run in the Blue Diamond was super considering he was 3-4 wide the trip and came from the carpark after straightening. Interestingly, Beneteau ran an unlucky 3rd in the Diamond, Shaaheq ran a tidy 2nd, Crystal Lily ran 6th and she's at $5.50 here while the other two are at $12 and $21...go figure. You could do far worse than throwing him in your multiples but I'm of the thinking that he's yearning for those rolling green fields...

Professor: Until his flat spot in the last, looked a big chance here. I'm prepared to forgive and forget and take the $12 on a horse that could be the star of the field.

5. Carved In Stone $51

Captain: I think 3rd to Masquerader is pretty handy form for this. Would have liked to see him have another run though. At the odds, well worth a look, could make your multiples phat.

Professor: Great price for one that could be open to some improvement.

6. Military Rose $3.70

Captain: She's a super little horse and I'd have no dramas watching her make these look stupid, but I just have to take her on in a race like the Slipper. She has the disadvantage of speed horses Brightexpectations and Chance Bye drawn inside her. And favourites just seem to run 4th a lot in the Slipper. Will happily chew up my losing tickets if she gets up, but, it's nothing personal Heinrichs', it's just business. Another Slipper favourite to fill 4th place.

Professor: I'll take on the Rose, but with some reservations!

7. Chance Bye $10

Captain: Unbeaten, but I'm not to sold on what she's beaten. At $20+ I could get interested but not at $10. I've long given up on listening to what the smaller trainers say before these big races, so when Tubman says "she's five lengths better than the Silver Slipper" and "she's gonna smash it in a 1:07:5", I've heard it all before, and so far, only Tracy Bartley (Sniper's Bullet, Stradbroke Hcp) has been right.

Tubman at his day job...

Professor: I keep reading "good times, though form behind it is poor" and similar in the racing press. So I should bet on a horse that has run slower? And beaten better horses by less?? I'm confused. And I'm on Chance Bye to an extent. Although it's the "battlers horse" and I typically have no love for battlers.

8. Crystal Lily $5.50

Captain: Looks pretty handy, but she's just no value at all, for many reasons. If you want the $5.50, it's all yours.

Professor: If you love the $5.50 here, you must love the $21 about Dirka Dirka Shaaheq.

9. Shaaheq $21

Captain: The only one of David Hayes' 50 two year olds to survive through to Golden Slipper day. I'm not a Hayes fan in case you haven't figured that out, but I speak the language of cash, and this one looks good value. Has had an interesting prep without a Sydney run. The only problem is, that usually means that the Slipper is an afterthought. A solid chance at decent odds.

Professor: The Blue Diamond Runner up receives no respect - probably because of it's funny arab name. And it was on this day that Shaaheq put a jihad on them. And if you don't believe it, you'd better get out, because it'll put a jihad on you too.

10. Solar Charged $10

Captain: The sun must have been obscured by clouds when she took on Military Rose in the Riesling because there was very little in the way of charge. How anyone can justify the $10 quote after that, and also when you consider Obsequious is at $34, and also that three other speed horses are drawn inside her, well I'm baffled.

Professor: When you find a decent 2 y.o. horse, I think it's worth forgiving a bad run. In that spirit, I'll forgive this very good horse a flat run. Especially with a bit of sting out.

11. Lohan $101

Captain: There's too much "it's like so hard being a star so I have to snort coke off the cubicle floor" about this one. Why would you name your horse after that dumb bitch?

But you don't know what it's like snorting coke laced with shredded $100 bills...

Professor: Probably the horse that will find the retarded drunk girls $2 investments at the track. You know the groups. Where five girls in a row go up to the bookie and put $2 on the same horse. Here's an idea respect my sanity and the others around you and get one fucking ticket.

12. Georgette Silk $67

Captain: Can't see the Boss-man getting Boss-manic after the running of the 2010 Slipper. Another runner with a gay name, and appears to be outclassed here.

Professor: It doesn't seem to have the class for this. And fuck you Boss.

13. Obsequious $34

Captain: More Strawberries - $11. Solar Charged - $10. And what do they share in common? They've both been beaten home by this filly, which is of course why she's at $34. Say what?! I like her, she may not have superstar written all over her, but she's honest and at very attractive odds. Throw her in.

Professor: Honest, professional, perhaps more of a Sires Produce type though.

14. Elimbari $71

Captain: If you need me to tell you that this is out of it's depth, you should be banned from punting, until you trial to stewards' satisfaction. Clown.

Professor: So that's a no....

15. More Strawberries $11

Captain: You buy a racehorse. You call it More Strawberries. It hits the front in the Slipper and you're yelling "Go More Strawberries!". That is gay. Singo should know better. If it wins, and you happily collect Singo's public bar shout, then you sir, are also gay. In all seriousness, it's got a decent chance, though $11 is too short for mine...and it's totally for fags...Gai is odds on to wear some stupid looking strawberry hat.

Professor: "What do we want?" "More Strawberries" "When do we want them?" "After we've had sex with men!"

FINAL THOUGHTS

Captain: In my quest for successive Golden Slipper First Fours, I'm working around Brightexpectations, Decision Time, Military Rose and Obsequious, throwing in Carved In Stone for a bit more juicy phatness. Others I considered were Hinchinbrook and Shaaheq but you can't have them all. Well, you can have them all, but it will cost you a million dollars to box them all. Already having massive overs on Brightexpectations affords me the luxury of really going after Decision Time as well. Obsequious and Carved In Stone are at nice each-way odds.

Remember, value is the key to the Slipper. The favourites just never seem to win, no matter how good they look. If Military Rose towels them up, then you weren't going to win much anyway. Punt on me hearties!

Professor: At the moment, I'll start with Beneteau. Think it has a lot of class, and hoping that it's last start shocker was just a bit of 2 year old unpredictability rather than anything else. It's not unheard of for a two year old to bounce back from a rough start to win the slipper - Miss Finland springs to mind. Beyond that, I'll make up a first four from Hinchinbrook, Decision Time, Solar Charged and Chance Bye. Carved in Stone and Shaaheq are the roughies in my bunch.

The two that appear the worst value to me are More Strawberries and Crystal Lily.

2 comments:

Professor Chaos said...

Well that ate/

Captain Carnage said...

You got more for Decision Time placing than for Crystal Lily winning...

The moral of the story is still the same; don't back favourites in the Slipper.