Origin II Reflections

* I woke up the morning after Origin II and after a solid breakfast of 8 panadols I thought to myself (not for the first time) "Did Steve Simpson play last night?".

* Tony Archer; the Hometown Hero. A terrible performance dictated by the home crowd. Even parochial QLDer's would have to ask why this dipshit awarded 16 penalties in an Origin match. Watching the Hannant try I correctly predicted it would be Refs Call and that Archer would give it a try. There was nothing surer. And once again the douchebag referees boss Robert Finch refuses to acknowledge the ineptitude of one of his bum-chums.

* Gasnier and Turner in defence... you all watched the match, that's all I really need to say.

* I've watched a lot of Rugby League but I can't remember watching a team that never even remotely looked like scoring as was the case with NSW.

* They were so bad they made Brent Tate look awesome, Incurable Neckitis and all.

* Willie Mason should be bound, gagged, locked in a vault and fed sedatives up until just before kickoff for Origin III lest the stupid bastard be tempted to shoot his mouth off again.

* And Queensland...it's only 1-1. You ain't won shit yet. Especially if the Hometown Hero gets the gig for Origin III.

***The author wishes to inform readers that he was absolutely hammered on Origin night and recollections may be hazy***

State of Origin II: Preview Thread

With State of Origin II kicking off tonight, lets have a quick look at how tonights contest shapes up:

QLD
1. B. Slater
2. D. Boyd
3. G. Inglis
4. B. Tate
5. I. Folau
7. S. Prince
6. J. Thurston
8. S. Price
9. C. Smith
10. P. Civoniceva
11. M. Crocker
12. S. Thaiday
13. D. Johnson

Int:
14. B. Hannant
15. K. Hunt
16. N. Myles
17. A. Harrison

NSW:
1. B. Stewart
2. S. Turner
3. M. Gasnier
4. M. Cooper
5. A. Quinn
6. G. Bird
7. P. Wallace
8. B. White
9. D. Buderus
10. C. Fitzgibbon
11. W. Mason
12. R. Hoffman
13. P. Gallen

Int:
14. A. Laffranchi
15. A. Tupou
16. K. Gidley
17. S. Simpson

NSW won the first game fairly convincingly. However game II looks like a more difficult proposition, based on the team changes made by both teams and on the move to the Fortress formerly known as Lang Park. QLD have brought in Prince for Karmichael Hunt Darren Lockyer PJ Marsh. This is a massive impact on the team, having a superior playmaker partnered with Thurston. The utility of picking Hunt on the bench must be questioned, as his selection in game one was questioned. Surely Marsh, or a specialist interchange player at origin level such as Bowen would give NSW more concerns. More bad news for NSW is the return of Steve Price. Carl Webb, an inexplicable selection in the Australian team but weeks ago makes way.

The great news selection for the Blues is the suspension of Justin Hodges. This shifts Tate in to the centres (hurrah!) and drafts in Darius Boyd. Whilst I will never complain about a Tate selection from the standpoint of a biased NSW fan, it must be wondered what he holds over the QLD selectors (See the poll on the top right of the page!) Lillyman out, Harrison in. 8 minutes of unspectacular football replaced by 8 minutes of unspectacular football. I always wonder about the 17th man selection by Queensland... is there some sort of pride factor in picking a side with only 16 players in it???

For NSW, Hayne, Cross and Hornby make way for Turner, Simpson and Gidley. The Turner and Gidley changes should provide little change from game 1. The Simpson change is a headscratcher. Are there no other props in NSW??? The Captain I know would have gone with Todd Payten. I could have lived with that. The *best* thing that comes out of the Simpson selection is that it gives a new guy to fill the role of Laffranchi in game II. Laffranchi in game one was spectacular when he was on the field, but saw far too few minutes. Hopefully that role (lack of minutes) falls to Simpson in game II. In fact, Laffranchi wins the "Wes Mantooth Award" for his game I performance.

* Note the Wes Mantooth Award is given to Sportsmen who dazzled us with their play. But deserved far bigger roles. Seriously, Anchorman is my favourite movie but how much better would it have been with MORE MANTOOTH! It runs for something like 90 minutes. Make it 92 minutes and lets see Wes present the news or something. At least in a deleted scene. Also, why can't they make Anchorman 2 and save Will Farrell from himself.

I think NSW are a good chance here. The backline of Queensland just looks 209% worse when Tate is in the centres. And the Queensland bench is bereft of impact. If NSW can stay close for the first hour, I think it could come down to the benches. And there NSW is a clear winner. If you are betting, take QLD by 13+ and NSW by 0-12. Either NSW get blown away early or win a close one. I will just take the second option as I don't have the heart to back QLD.

Anyway, that's all I've got on Origin 2. I will be cranking up some Roy and HG, getting some sweet seafood and beering on.

No laughing stock post today, eh JB??? You saw how that went last time.

Hall Of Fame Inductee No. 6!!!

It's been a while since we inducted someone into our hall of fame so here's our newest addition:

Russell Tiffin in a familiar pose...

After yet another series of howlers over in the West Indies, "Gunfinger" Tiffin as we like to call him at WHAB, has deservedly been added to the honour roll. Without doubt the worst umpire in international cricket. If I walked out to the middle at a weekend warehouse cricket match and saw this guy up the other end I'd be very nervous...

The Professors Guide to Roughies!

Eagle Farm today sees a lot of good races, anyway, just thought I would share my opinions on the best outside chances running around in all 8 races.

They are somewhat rough, so I may come up with nothing, but if you are like me - this is how you like to invest.

Race 1:
Not too interesting in terms of roughies, I think Lancaster Park ($26) can improve. There seems to be enough of a wrap on it and this is an easy race.

Race 2:
Again, wish I had of started this preview with Race 3, however lets lock in Our Jangles ($21).

Race 3:
Looks to be a race in two - High Rollin' WOman and Black Minx. I will be betting on High Rollin' to turn the tables but a good outside chance is Cloudcatcher at $13.

Race 4:
A horse that lost to El Cambio by 2.5 lengths - whilst carrying equal weights. Comes in on 53 kgs. Paying $51??? Take Frosty each way and call it your roughie of the day.

Race 5:
Three roughies to like here.
1) Alverta ($17) - last first up run was a nose behind Takeover Target. Good enough for me here.
2) Sir Monashee ($13 allegedly will be more like $30)- owner of the hottest 1000 metre times in this field. That was three starts back. Last start looked like he was back - length behind your favourite Sectagonal. Has a good gate and could be too good.
3) Nessuno ($26) Owner of a 56.85 1,000 metre time with 62,5 kgs on his back!! Has 53 here and looks like he is coming back into form as well.

Race 6:
Will probably go with Riva San here, personally. However if you want some juicy odds, you could go worse than Rainbow Styling who has been solidly working through the classes to get here.

Race 7:
All of my favourite roughies here have shocking gates.
- Helideck
- Swiss Ace
- Snipers Bullet (now its dry)
- Absolut Glam
They could all go well though.

Am actually leaning towards Swick in the big one now..

Race 8:
Chevron Island ($26) - Country form around some decent horses. May stack up here.
By this time big Frosty will have made this all academic anyway.

Enjoy,
Professor.

Stradbroke Handicap Short Preview

The Captain's Straddy Guide

The Straddy is a race where either a). the leaders knock up but the backmarkers that sit at the tail are too far back in the big field or b). the leaders kick and the backmarkers are again too far back. Right then, I want something that will sit back but have 7-10 horses behind them. Alternatively you might go with the jockey who's the best in the country at miraculously bringing a horse through along the rail in Glen Colless but I think Black Ink was a better chance a couple of years ago. Personally, with pace from wide gates in Murtajill, Swiss Ace and Omnitrader also pushing forward I really think that the barrier is key here. With that in mind, the race is set up for Casino Prince and Pinnacles provided they settle somewhere in mid-field. Shouldn't be a problem for the Prince so that leaves me to plead with Rick Hore-Lacy and Craig Newitt, please don't ride Pinnacles cold! Not from barrier one, surely. The other two I want are Chinchilla Rose who from gate 15 should be able to settle somewhere in mid-field and I like Swiss Ace to hang on gamely if he can get to the rail from the start. I'll be boxing these four. Track will be dead at worst. I've been to Eagle Farm under similar conditions and have seen it go from slow before Race 1 to good before Race 7 so don't be surprised if it gets back to a dry Stradbroke.

Professor:
I agree with the Captain, you do want something that gets back - but not too far!
Thought it was going to be a wet track... Oh well. I love El Cambio for this race, barrier the only doubt but he could be too strong given any luck. Comes in fantastically at the weights and has to be a good chance. I also like Swiss Ace, Atapi, Helideck and Diplomatic Force. All have horrible gates but remain nice value. With everything that I like coming from the grandstand, I will have to spread the cash around a little bit - pimp style - and hope for one of them to get a bit of luck. With any luck yours have drawn better than mine.

The Festival of the Wallet

JB:

$50 on Geelong, Hawthorne, Sydney, Brisbane, Bulldogs, Collingwood all by more than 15.5 into Portugal/Turkey into Titans and Tigers paying $16.86

$50 Following the Professor with $10 place on Mr Baritone, $10 place on Hellideck, $15 win Casino Prince and $15 win on El Cambio

Captain: Fuck betting on weekly sport. It sucks balls. They call RACING the Sport of Kings...

$35 on Casino Prince
$13 each way on Pinnacles
$11 each way on Chinchilla Rose
$5 win on Swiss Ace
Boxed trifecta with these four at a half, cost $12.

A very open race but think the Captain has well and truly nailed this one. Enjoy!

Professor:

All my bets are on the Straddie! Yeah.
$20 on Diplomatic Force (When I think of this horse I think of)

$30 on El Cambio!
Swiss Ace: 10/10
Helideck: 5/10
Atapi: 5/10

Spreading the love around. Like JB, he's anyone's after a few cosmos.

Dorothy Mantooth is a SAINT!

NBA Finals 2008 Preview

For the 11th time, the Boston Celtics will meet the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. The Lakers were composed in their dominance of the Spurs while the Celtics ultimately proved too good for the Pistons. The key to this series is going to be how Boston fares when they travel to L.A. When the Lakers have a good team it’s the toughest playoff road trip there is and I honestly can’t see Boston winning a game there. The interesting thing is that the Celtics have home court advantage after finishing with the best regular season record. They achieved this by repeatedly hammering various downtrodden Eastern Conference teams; meanwhile the Lakers battled in the tough Western Conference. The stage is set, so let’s look at the players to watch out for.

Kobe Bryant: Kobe is so good that NBA.com has set up the Ultimate Kobe Page which has everything Kobe except information about off-court indiscretions. The man is really that good. At times in his career it has seemed as if he can score at will; nowadays it seems he can score at will and can help his teammates score as well. If this man plays for the U.S.A at the Olympics, the gold medal is a foregone conclusion people. And if the Celtics can’t find a way to shut him down, so is the 2008 Championship.

Kevin Garnett: “KG” is going to have to be Finals MVP for Boston if they are going to win this series. He needs to dominate down low, dominate the boards and dominate Pau Gasol. It’s a simple plan but easier said than done. If Garnett gets into foul trouble through the series, the Celtics will be in serious trouble.

Pau Gasol: Lakers coach Phil Jackson has been critical of Gasol, especially during the playoffs. He has been upset with Gasol’s “softness”; fancy little hook shots rather than taking it strong to the rack. The reason Gasol plays this way is that he is white. If he was black he would take it to the rim but you would have to go back a long way to find a white centre who doesn’t prefer a dinky little hook shot. Nevertheless, Gasol is a seven footer who will score points, grab rebounds at both ends and fill up the middle with his size. And this is his wife:

Paul Pierce: Pierce is no doubt an important part of the Celtics line-up but will play a role that will look to compliment Garnett’s inside game. With Ray Allen struggling in the playoffs from deep, Pierce will need to get his three point shot going. His nickname “The Truth” was accorded to him after Shaq said this to a very obedient Boston reporter:

"My name is Shaquille O'Neal and Paul Pierce is the motherfucking truth. Quote me on that and don't take nothing out. I knew he could play, but I didn't know he could play like this. Paul Pierce is the truth."

It's hard to argue when Shaq puts it so eloquently...Lamar Odom, Vladimir Radmanovic and Derek Fisher are the other likely starters for L.A. with Allen, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins taking the tip for Boston. The bench of the Lakers runs deep. Just about everyone will get time in this series and each will have a set role. The Celtics are skinnier in terms of depth so will rely heavily on their big three.

PREDICTION: Lakers win. Most likely 4-2. Any sort of foul trouble for Boston's big men will be exploited. The Lakers bench will boast too much depth. The Celtics will go down in all three matches on the road. Kobe Bryant MVP. Series tips off in Boston, 11.a.m Friday AEST on ESPN.

NRL parity: Why the Salary Cap is a flawed system.

Whenever parity or clubs being under financial pressure is discussed, the NRL talking heads (led by Dennis Fitzgerald) rehash the same arguments. Raise the salary cap. Lower the salary cap. As chief executives or media personalities, this appears to show minimal imagination and economic nous for people in the high profile roles that they enjoy. First I intend to show the flaws in the current structure, and then I aim to outline a counter strategy designed at providing some parity in the game. Unlike most of my posts, there will be an element of seriousness.


Anyway, to the current system. Lets look at the finalists for the past five years. Many of the games talking heads make a lot of the fact that of the 16 teams currently playing in the NRL, only the Gold Coast, in their second year of playing - have made the finals at least once in the past 5 seasons. This does not account for the fact that South Sydney, Cronulla and the Tigers have made just one appearance, compared to the 5 trips made by Melbourne and Brisbane. What is a far more revealing indicator of a lack of parity, look at the average table positions for the 16 teams over the past five years.



Melbourne: 3.6
Brisbane & Canterbury: 5
North QLD, Parramatta, St George, Sydney: 7
Manly: 8
Penrith, Canberra, NZ, Tigers: 9
Cronulla, Newcastle: 10
Souths: 11
Gold Coast: 12.


Taking Gold Coast out of the equation, the differential between the top and the bottom is astounding for a game that preaches parity and assures that the salary cap has created this. Moreover, we can conclude that the notion of many teams making the finals is a flawed manner to grade the current system in terms of parity. It is clear that average/below average teams can make the final 8. Looking at the results from the 1v8 and 2v7 finals in the past five years gives us:


Top seed wins: 9
Bottom seed wins: 1
Average Winning Margin by top seed: 20.3


So, the only upset in this round was by the red-hot Cowboys in 2004. The average winning margin at greater than 20 points makes this clear that the notion of a finals appearance is no measure of parity.


So what to do about parity???


There are a number of complementary regulations that I would advocate in order to achieve parity or competitive balance. Lets start with the removal of the salary cap in favour of a "soft cap."


The Soft Cap:

Spend what you want!! At least in theory. You have a lot of financial resources at your club. Fine. Spend away. However, once you reach some salary figure, you pay a tax on your payroll. Say you have a cap of $2M. Spend $4M and you pay 50% of your excess payroll into a fund that gets distributed amongst poorer clubs. This ensures that clubs with limited resources stay viable. Also means that if you want to spend your way to a premiership, it hurts a lot more. The abolition of the salary cap as a hard cap allows players to be paid a figure closer to their market value. Yes, this figure is distorted by a tax. However, the distortion is less than under a price ceiling.

Free agent compensation:

Lets start with a basic and obvious change. No midseason deals on free-agents-to-be. The club that owns the rights to a player, controls that player until the end of the season. Letting a player sign elsewhere halfway through a season has no parrelels in the sporting world.

Onto the notion of free agent compensation. If you control your player until the end of the year, you should get something for him if he leaves. This is a response to the widely held view that clubs see their own developed prospects leave for other clubs after the club spends a lot of time and money on their development.

At the moment, it can be argued that clubs are actually being offered a disincentive to develop their juniors. This would need to be addressed.

Under the Compensation scenario, if a club loses one of its free agents to another club, that club is compensated by picking up a player from the signing club (outside the signing clubs top 25). Again, this compensates the club for the resources spent on developing a young player. Obviously, tiers of free agents would need to be agreed upon. For example, a club that signs a mediocre free agent would have to only offer a restricted list of juniors/reserve graders to choose from. Otherwise, second tier players would be disadvantaged. However, signing a marquee free agent would expose your best youngsters. This would shift the demand for free agents leftwards - so whilst players would feel that the abolition of the salary cap would pay them market value - the combination of leftward shift (due to the tax) and the further shift (due to the opportunity cost of signing players) could actually depress players wages!!!

The final complementary policy that would need to be worked in would be a draft of junior players. Much of the dominance of Melbourne and Brisbane can be put down to their ability to sign young players. A draft that worked in reverse order of standings (similar to the AFL model) would benefit the parity debate greatly.

ORIGIN II TEAM CHANGES

Whenever I watch an Origin match that features Steve Simpson I always become confused immediately following the game; "Was Simpson really playing? Came on for the last 10 minutes? Maybe that's why I didn't notice him...no, he started? Really?". I cannot believe this man keeps getting picked for NSW. Especially when the Blues have lost a starting front rower; replacing him with a second rower who disappears for large passages of play is surely a bad move. On the upside for Blues fans, Brent Tate is moving to the centres to cover for the suspended Hodges. That could well spell disaster for the Maroons. With the axing of Lilyman, Tate will be the worst-performed player of 2008 on the field at Suncorp Stadium. QLD do get back Lockyer which is obviously great news but will he get through the match? I have a query on his fitness, and have no doubt the Blues forwards will use him as a speedbump, but after the ludicrous selection of Hunt for the first match this was very much a necessary gamble. I have to ask, why is Hunt still in the side over Prince? Picking a fullback for the utility position is completely retarded. There are two possible explanations. Either Prince has slept with one or more of the selector's wives or Hunt has slept with one or more of the selectors. Gidley comes in as a straight swap for Hornby which was on the cards. Utility for utility. The Blues selectors seem to understand the concept. Obviously Cameron Smith is playing the full 80 minutes at dummy half in this one. In other changes, an underdone Steven Price is always a better Origin option than an overweight Carl Webb and anyone (Ashley Harrison in this case) is better than Lilyman. Joel "Magic Hands" Monaghan is on standby for either Gasnier or Hayne. More on Origin II to follow closer to the match.

CANOE/KAYAK - FLATWATER, BEIJING 2008

Welcome to WHAB's guide to the exciting world of canoeing/kayaking. Flatwater canoeing/kayaking is like swimming in that there are lanes but totally different in that competitors are in canoes or kayaks. So I don't have to keep writing canoe/kayak we'll get canoeing out of the way. Only men canoe. Why? I don't know. Seems a bit sexist really given that canoeing must surely be not much different to kayaking. Anyway, here's a list of the events at Beijing, with their codenames;

• C1 500 m (canoe single) Men
• C1 1000 m (canoe single) Men
• C2 500 m (canoe double) Men
• C2 1000 m (canoe double) Men
• K1 500 m (kayak single) Men
• K1 1000 m (kayak single) Men
• K2 500 m (kayak double) Men
• K2 1000 m (kayak double) Men
• K4 1000 m (kayak four) Men
• K1 500 m (kayak single) Women
• K2 500 m (kayak double) Women
• K4 500 m (kayak four) Women

C obviously stands for Canoe and K for Kayak Einsteins. It would take the better part of 2008 for me to go through all these events in depth so here's a selection of key points.

Australia's lane to Beijing has been hit by tidal waves with one stupid decision during the selection process. To cut a long and arduous story short, the final make-up of the men's team is still unknown. This has been fantastic preparation for our K4 team who don't yet know if they are actually on the team. Luke Michael and Clint Robinson were unavailable during the selection trials through illness/injury. The selectors used their "discretionary powers" to pick Robinson. Michael has since won his appeal with the Court of Arbitration for Sport. All this equals one big mess. Tensions are sure to be high and team morale low. With the rumour mill rife that Robinson has taken Michael's endless appealing personally, WHAB-bet has Robinson to win by T.K.O inside 8 rounds as the favoured betting option.

Hungary are the surprising powerhouse in the sport for both men and women going by the 2007 World Championships. Germany are also up there. Australia are not. Don't expect any miracles here people. And don't be surprised if China announce their emergence overnight and break many world records in winning nearly all the gold medals. The Beijing University of Chemical Technology has been a busy place this semester...

A bit of history to finish. The only inductee into the flatwater hall of fame is Birgit Fischer. Fischer is both the youngest and oldest Olympic champion at 18 and 42. She has eight Olympic gold medals stashed in her undie draw and would no doubt have had more but for East Germany boycotting the L.A. Olympics. Now retired for a third time she has been preparing for life after flatwater kayaking;

Birgit Fischer auditions for Circus Krone.