GEELONG VS ST. KILDA
A replay of last year's Grand Final but in 2010, both these sides have been far less dominant than in '09. They've both lost to teams that last year they would have pummeled unmercifully. St. Kilda have at times looked fantastic, yet at other times looked downright awful. The same can be said of Geelong though they have been a bit more consistent than the Saints. Both also played meaningless games last weekend, and played them accordingly, which is less than ideal heading into the finals. I think St. Kilda are a chance here but I'll stick with Geelong, simply because they've been a bit more consistent. Cats under 39.5.
FREMANTLE VS HAWTHORN
It's hard to believe that when they met two weeks ago the Hawks snuck in by 116 points! Freo, other than resting about 20 players, had no excuses. This should obviously be a lot closer, but the Hawks look like the team who are more likely to go deep into September. The Dockers had a great start to the season but as 2010 has worn on, they have had a bit of a busted ass look about them. Last week they fell over the line against Carlton, who also look like busted asses at the minute, and that will not be good enough against Hawthorn. Home advantage is huge however, huge like the giant penis', complete with giant balls, that stand proudly atop of the Subiaco grandstands when the Dockers are in town:
They remind me of this classic scene:
Hawks to knock over the Johnsons by under 39.5.
COLLINGWOOD VS WESTERN BULLDOGS
It's the battle of the 'chokers' here with both sides year after year in recent times looking like contenders for the flag only to strangle themselves come finals time. After the 'Pies couldn't beat a walking wounded Lions outfit in the 2002 GF, they subsequently fell apart in the 2003 GF as the Lions dished out an absolute mauling. This really has no relevance whatsoever to this game but I just love reminding Collingwood fans about those two wonderful Grand Finals. Happy days...anyway, I think the 'Pies will prevail in this one, cheered on by their legions of bogans:
It's hard to reason with a mulleted Collingwood bogan. He seems to have forgotten all the times his own team has choked in finals...or maybe he hasn't...
The Bulldogs have smashed most of the teams below them on the ladder but against the other top four sides, were beaten twice by Collingwood, lost to St. Kilda and got reamed by Geelong to the tune of 101 points. Their recent form is shite with the Geelong hammering, another flogging at the hands of Sydney and a gift-wrapped win over an utterly lifeless Essendon outfit. Barry Hall has been a great addition to the team but as a whole in 2010, they have not convinced anyone that they are Premiership material. Collingwood are coming off a loss to a pretty good team (Hawthorn), at the right time. That should have them re-focused to comfortably account for the 'Dogs, let's say under 39.5, on the grounds that it could be tight early on.
SYDNEY VS CARLTON
Most years, this Carlton side wouldn't have made the finals. They benefited greatly from the eight teams below them being somewhere between pretty ordinary/horribly inconsistent to absolute rubbish/completely uninterested in competing. Fresh off a losing road trip to Perth, it's hard to entertain the idea of them beating a very much in-form Swans side. I'll back the Swans to go right on with this, over 39.5, leaving Carlton to sing the Busted-Ass Blues.