AJC DERBY
Captain: I'm not entirely convinced of the staying credentials of many runners here, so am inclined to actually steer clear of the Rosehill Guineas form and look a bit rougher. I think there is a very real possibility that horses coming from interstate and across the ditch are in this up to their pricked ears. I particularly liked the run of Harris Tweed ($8.50) last week. Has run a decent 4th at the trip in NZ eh cuz, and looks like the run last week might have topped him off nicely for this bro'. Coniston Bluebird ($12) is the NZ Derby winner which is just choice form for this race cuzzy bro'. I reckon he'll improve on his run in the Guineas as he hadn't run for nearly a month. The spruiking of Big Col ($21) by Roy and HG was a concern as, whilst they are entertaining, they are the last two people that any sane and serious punter would want a tip off. But I do like the big fella in this. Comes into this after winning over 2000m at Caulfield when he and the horse that ran 2nd gapped the rest. I'm also a sucker for a son of Reset. So I'll go with Harris Tweed from Coniston Bluebird and Big Col.
Professor: I'm not looking too dissimilar in my picks here. I have grave doubts on the quality of the Guineas form. Big Col is my top pick, has quality stayer written all over him. Had a nibble last night and have seen the price roll in since, so I am clearly not alone. Unless of course $5 Each way has the potential to move a market. The Rosehill form from last week is a little tough to match up due to the wet. Harris Tweed and Doctor Doutes are my favourites based on that race. Harris Tweed put in a great run, and Doctor Doutes could have a bit of class over this trip. Will consider Coniston Bluebird as well. The Metal Bender/Rock Kingdom/Sousa group? Pass. I don't see the Guineas form holding up. Think it's a coincidence that front runners have dominated both Guineas? Both were won in a walk. If anything from that race gets up, for me it'd be Pre Eminence - it boomed home against the aforementioned slow tempo.
So yeah, work around 1,5, 7, 9 & 10. But mostly 10.
THE GALAXY
Captain: When I had my first run down of the The Galaxy field I thought to myself, "Gamble Me ($7) can win this". Then my eyes nearly popped out of my head when I saw she had only 51kg! I am loading up on her, think she is very underrated and definitely has a big race in her. Probably tomorrow. Not too many of these are genuine Group 1 horses and a lot of them prefer a slightly longer trip. Olonana ($8) has only ever won first up. She is a first up merchant. Maybe she can figure 2nd up with only 51kg as well. Kaphero is a Moonee Valley merchant, happy to leave him out. At first glimpse, Swiss Ace ($7) as topweight in a Group 1 is not appealing...until you read further. Right in this, with "Tooth-Rot" Kenny Pope on board. The Professor has been following Kenny's cigarette-smoke trail from Caulfield to Flemington and now here.
Yeah, yeah, another Group 1...now where's the fucking DOSA?!
The other horse I must include is Black Prince. I cannot think of any reason other than injury why The Jackal isn't running tomorrow. He is in career best form, like Hansel...so hot right now. And Black Prince ($7) ran a good second to him in the Star Kingdom. Last week Mount Verde (3rd in Star Kingdom) franked that form with a staunch win. So I will go Gamble Me, from Swiss Ace, Olonana and Black Prince to try and nail back to back First Fours!
Professor: Even with the big weight, Swiss Ace is the pick here. The form from the Oakleigh and Newmarket stacks up in a big way. Swiss Ace runs these off their legs tomorrow. The biggest danger is Gamble Me. I am yet to back this horse, I think that it has something to do with Simon O'Donnell tipping it one day. I couldn't back it. It won. It has had a dirty feel to me since. Maybe tomorrow is the day. El Cambio is my pick of the swoopers. If I go rough, Keen Commander has the ability to put in a run of such immense quality from time to time.
THE GALAXY
Captain: When I had my first run down of the The Galaxy field I thought to myself, "Gamble Me ($7) can win this". Then my eyes nearly popped out of my head when I saw she had only 51kg! I am loading up on her, think she is very underrated and definitely has a big race in her. Probably tomorrow. Not too many of these are genuine Group 1 horses and a lot of them prefer a slightly longer trip. Olonana ($8) has only ever won first up. She is a first up merchant. Maybe she can figure 2nd up with only 51kg as well. Kaphero is a Moonee Valley merchant, happy to leave him out. At first glimpse, Swiss Ace ($7) as topweight in a Group 1 is not appealing...until you read further. Right in this, with "Tooth-Rot" Kenny Pope on board. The Professor has been following Kenny's cigarette-smoke trail from Caulfield to Flemington and now here.
Yeah, yeah, another Group 1...now where's the fucking DOSA?!The other horse I must include is Black Prince. I cannot think of any reason other than injury why The Jackal isn't running tomorrow. He is in career best form, like Hansel...so hot right now. And Black Prince ($7) ran a good second to him in the Star Kingdom. Last week Mount Verde (3rd in Star Kingdom) franked that form with a staunch win. So I will go Gamble Me, from Swiss Ace, Olonana and Black Prince to try and nail back to back First Fours!
Professor: Even with the big weight, Swiss Ace is the pick here. The form from the Oakleigh and Newmarket stacks up in a big way. Swiss Ace runs these off their legs tomorrow. The biggest danger is Gamble Me. I am yet to back this horse, I think that it has something to do with Simon O'Donnell tipping it one day. I couldn't back it. It won. It has had a dirty feel to me since. Maybe tomorrow is the day. El Cambio is my pick of the swoopers. If I go rough, Keen Commander has the ability to put in a run of such immense quality from time to time.
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