Friday, April 10, 2009

The Professor & The Captain Talk Derby Day

Derby day tomorrow will hopefully be another cash cow for our team of punters here at WHAB. The Derby itself doesn't look nearly as exciting as The Galaxy, a high charged sprint over 1100m, in which many runners will become hurdles as they drift back through the field, the realisation hitting connections that they are way out of depth at Group 1 level. Two alleged Group 2 races and an alleged Group 3 on the card as well so we'll just stick to the features here.


Captain: I'm not entirely convinced of the staying credentials of many runners here, so am inclined to actually steer clear of the Rosehill Guineas form and look a bit rougher. I think there is a very real possibility that horses coming from interstate and across the ditch are in this up to their pricked ears. I particularly liked the run of Harris Tweed ($8.50) last week. Has run a decent 4th at the trip in NZ eh cuz, and looks like the run last week might have topped him off nicely for this bro'. Coniston Bluebird ($12) is the NZ Derby winner which is just choice form for this race cuzzy bro'. I reckon he'll improve on his run in the Guineas as he hadn't run for nearly a month. The spruiking of Big Col ($21) by Roy and HG was a concern as, whilst they are entertaining, they are the last two people that any sane and serious punter would want a tip off. But I do like the big fella in this. Comes into this after winning over 2000m at Caulfield when he and the horse that ran 2nd gapped the rest. I'm also a sucker for a son of Reset. So I'll go with Harris Tweed from Coniston Bluebird and Big Col.

Professor: I'm not looking too dissimilar in my picks here. I have grave doubts on the quality of the Guineas form. Big Col is my top pick, has quality stayer written all over him. Had a nibble last night and have seen the price roll in since, so I am clearly not alone. Unless of course $5 Each way has the potential to move a market. The Rosehill form from last week is a little tough to match up due to the wet. Harris Tweed and Doctor Doutes are my favourites based on that race. Harris Tweed put in a great run, and Doctor Doutes could have a bit of class over this trip. Will consider Coniston Bluebird as well. The Metal Bender/Rock Kingdom/Sousa group? Pass. I don't see the Guineas form holding up. Think it's a coincidence that front runners have dominated both Guineas? Both were won in a walk. If anything from that race gets up, for me it'd be Pre Eminence - it boomed home against the aforementioned slow tempo.

So yeah, work around 1,5, 7, 9 & 10. But mostly 10.


Captain: When I had my first run down of the The Galaxy field I thought to myself, "Gamble Me ($7) can win this". Then my eyes nearly popped out of my head when I saw she had only 51kg! I am loading up on her, think she is very underrated and definitely has a big race in her. Probably tomorrow. Not too many of these are genuine Group 1 horses and a lot of them prefer a slightly longer trip. Olonana ($8) has only ever won first up. She is a first up merchant. Maybe she can figure 2nd up with only 51kg as well. Kaphero is a Moonee Valley merchant, happy to leave him out. At first glimpse, Swiss Ace ($7) as topweight in a Group 1 is not appealing...until you read further. Right in this, with "Tooth-Rot" Kenny Pope on board. The Professor has been following Kenny's cigarette-smoke trail from Caulfield to Flemington and now here.

Yeah, yeah, another Group where's the fucking DOSA?!

The other horse I must include is Black Prince. I cannot think of any reason other than injury why The Jackal isn't running tomorrow. He is in career best form, like hot right now. And Black Prince ($7) ran a good second to him in the Star Kingdom. Last week Mount Verde (3rd in Star Kingdom) franked that form with a staunch win. So I will go Gamble Me, from Swiss Ace, Olonana and Black Prince to try and nail back to back First Fours!

Professor: Even with the big weight, Swiss Ace is the pick here. The form from the Oakleigh and Newmarket stacks up in a big way. Swiss Ace runs these off their legs tomorrow. The biggest danger is Gamble Me. I am yet to back this horse, I think that it has something to do with Simon O'Donnell tipping it one day. I couldn't back it. It won. It has had a dirty feel to me since. Maybe tomorrow is the day. El Cambio is my pick of the swoopers. If I go rough, Keen Commander has the ability to put in a run of such immense quality from time to time.

No comments: