Monday, April 20, 2009

Bookmaking School

Okay class, today we are going to learn what could be a very valuable lesson to you all. The theme for today is "never write off a champion". The example we will use is Saturday's TJ Smith Stks. Let's say you open your market with Apache Cat at $2.80. Seven time Group 1 winner, that's fair enough I'd say. You have a bit of interest from punters in Nicconi so you open him up at $4.50. Even though there is no evidence whatsoever that he will do anything in a WFA race at this point in time. If you've been drinking whisky all morning, and it's a really hot day, you could be forgiven for starting the superstar Takeover Target at $4. The rest of the field are $8.50 plus and you don't get much interest throughout betting for those runners. In this example, the booky wound Nicconi into $4, then into $3.80 and finally to $3.60. Why? Anyone? You there..."because he won the Galaxy with 51 kg last start?". Fuck no son. The correct answer is "I have no fucking idea". And can anyone tell me why you'd drift a champion out from $4, all the way to $6? You again..."because he's a rising 10.y.o.?". No, fuck no my boy. The correct answer is "because you are a very fucking stupid bookie". I can't even remember the Target starting at odds that juicy in international races. So class, never write off a champion. Never offer $6 on the Target. Ever. Well that's all for today class, a very valuable lesson for you all...

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