We'll Have A Bowl: October 2011

The first Tuesday in November. Fuck yeah. After putting in for the day off the day after last year's Cup, I've got myself an array of snacks and a fridge full of beer.

One of the essential Cup day snacks on standby for the Captain...

I haven't worked on Cup day for over 10 years, and even then, I was actually working at the races! Anyway, this year's Cup is like trying to find an Aussie in an Olympic marathon...there's one or two there somewhere! That's what happens when you reward every horse that wins a shitty 4 horse Listed race in the UK. Anyhow, without further ado, here's your Cup field for the 2011 edition...

1. AMERICAIN Mosse/de Royer Dupre 58 (15)

Captain: Reigning champ and going every bit as well as last year after his pointlessly easy win in the Moonee Valley Cup. After thinking to myself that he would have won last year's Cup with 58 on his back, I backed him early in the piece at $17...that's looking like pretty good value now...ooh la fucking la...an obvious must for multiples.

Professor: Obvious top pick, though at the $4 I will be looking elsewhere. Househunting/moving etc means that I don't have any early money down this year so my picjs will all be about race day value.

2. JUKEBOX JURY Callan/Johnstone 57 (6)

Captain: Somewhat of an unknown quantity with no lead up runs in Oz. His form overseas reads well but I'm still loathe to back one of these European horses without seeing them in action. That's my only knock; I want to see him winning a Geelong Cup or a Moonee Valley Cup before investing...

Professor: No local runs, and no foreign horse has ever won with that profile. I'll pass. Beyond that, it's win (though super-impressive) in the Kergolay gave an indication that this could be one of the classic European flops - doesn't look fond of traffic.

3. DUNADEN Lemaire/Delzangles 54.5 (13)

Captain: The smartest thing I've done all Spring is backing this Frenchy at $22 two minutes before the Geelong Cup. Ooh la fucking la! He did pretty much there what Americain did last year and comes into the Cup with the same weight as the 'Cain did last year...the only question is, can he beat the 'Cain? He has before and with the 3.5kg drop on him, could well be doing it again...Lemaire jumps on board after the suspension of Williams...the guy's won Group races all over the world so no need to panic people.

Professor: Same story as Americain, I did not get on before the Geelong cup and here I am looking at the $8. I still might just take that as the form v Americain, plus the disdain that it won the Geelong up makes this the top hope for me.

4. DRUNKEN SAILOR Dunn/Cumani 54 (8)

Captain:

That's a no from me.

Professor: There's a second no for me.

5. GLASS HARMONIUM Cropp/Moroney 54 (23)

Captain: At 2000m and WFA this guy is the business. And Mackinnon winners invariably run well when backing up in the Cup. But when renowned trainer of stayers Michael Moroney questions his credentials at the two miles, that's enough for me. Gate 23 is no help to a frontrunner either. Prepared to pass.

Professor: Moroney is a shift, shifty man. If he says that it won't run the trip, there's a good chance that it will.

Nothing that the Harmonium has done to date makes me think that it won't run the trip and with Mackinnon form = good form, I am in.

6. MANIGHAR Oliver/Cumani 54 (21)

Captain: Wasn't convinced that he could see the trip right out last year. Equally as unconvinced this year. Can't have him.

Professor: Not for me.

7. UNUSUAL SUSPECT /Kent 54 (7)

Captain: The only thing I want to say about this fella is that he ran the fastest 1000m, 600m, 400m and 200m sectionals in the Caulfield Cup. Despite being blocked for a run between the 400m and 200m. That's a good pointer that he'll run out the trip, even though he's never run beyond 2400m. One to phatten up your multiples.

Professor: Advanced age and never tried at this distance a concern. In saying that, I loved how it closed in the Caulfield Cup. It's the one that I am sweating on a good price - 40+ and I will jump right in.

8. FOX HUNT De Sousa/Johnstone 53.5 (19)

Captain: Think he prefers 2400m and as such, cannot have him without seeing him have a trundle in the Caulfield Cup first.

Professor: Pass.

9. LUCAS CRANACH Brown/Freedman 53.5 (11)

Captain: I remember his Dad coming to this country, all the hype, chest puffing and short-priced favouritism...and....massive flop-a-roo. So hopefully this one has a bit more ticker than his Pop. Ran pretty well in the Caulfield Cup despite some concerns over his soundness so you'd expect him to improve on that. A chance.

Professor: Along with Dunaden, i'll be shopping around for a price on this, as it's run despite being a little unsound in the Caulfield Cup was the kind that you'd want to be on. In saying that, it's run was worse than the 'suspect,' and you'd be preferring to launch into the 40s, right???

10. MOURAYAN Bowman/Hickmott 53.5 (14)

Captain: Ran a cracking 2nd to Glass Harmonium in the Mackinnon. And unlike Glass Harmonium, there are no concerns about him seeing out the trip. I never thought I'd see Mourayan looking that sharp over 2000m...Include in exotics.

Professor: Include in more than the exotics. This is professors big bet. Extremely well weighted, definitely stays, coming off a career best run. Won't likely run into the back of a rapidly fading Saptapadi as it will go forward. What's not to like here? Anyone??

11. PRECEDENCE Beadman/Cummings 53.5 (2)

Captain: We all know Bart is smarmy, and we all know that Precedence is probably travelling much better than Bart would have us think...put in a similar performance to that of Viewed in the 2008 Mackinnon, i.e shithouse. Viewed won the Cup 3 days later. Think about throwing him into multiples...

Professor: I kicked myself when I was at the cup with the Captain in 2008 and Viewed won. Which means that it would be easy to 'chase' this one. However, the differences between the out of form 3,200 metre specialist Viewed and the out of form Precedence are too big to make it a good idea.

12. RED CADEAUX Rodd/Dunlop 53.3 (16)

Captain: I'll be brutally honest: I just don't like it. Need to see, it's form looks pretty decent but I'm not smashing this in the Cup when I haven't seen it go around. Fucking Internationals with no lead up runs. Does my fucking head in.

Professor: I think the Irish St Leger run gives you a good indication about what this one is all about. Meets Jukebox 3.5 kilos better after a luckless 1L third. At the 50s, I could be somewhat interested.

13. HAWK ISLAND Schofield/Waller 53 (18)

Captain: The Hawk is a massive chance to win an Adelaide Cup. This is the Melbourne Cup. This is serious...

The time honoured Adelaide Cup...

Professor: p.a.s.s

14. ILLO Cassidy/Cummings 53 (1)

Captain: Bart is one smarmy bastard. I know that he would have liked more time to work with this guy to prep him for the Cup, as such, I will leave him out, but I would not be shocked if smarmy ol' Bart booted him home.

Professor: Hard to leave out. Good European form, a settler of a run in the MV cup...

15. LOST IN THE MOMENT Buick/Bin Suroor 53 (3)

Captain: Are there any Aussies in this fucking race?!? Every time I have to look up the form it's for European races and most of it seems pretty shithouse! His form is okay but to think he could win the Cup when he doesn't like to win out of turn is a bit fucking rich!

Professor: Stays the trip, which is a positive. I really won't be having this one.

16. MODUN McEvoy/Bin Suroor 53 (5)

Captain: Not seasoned enough to win a Melbourne Cup at this stage. It's had 8 career starts...most horses going into the Cup have more miles under their legs this campaign than he has in his career.

Professor: Nope.

17. AT FIRST SIGHT King/Hickmott 52.5 (10)

Captain: Looks really tested at the trip. In fact, I think he's more a miler/mile and a quarter type. Also a possible soundness issue so just can't get excited about him at two miles. One for the romantics out there...

Do you believe in love at first sight?

Professor: Has had a really good prep. I really like both of Lloyd's horses this time in.

18. MOYENNE CORNICH Prebble/Ellison 52 (17)

Captain: I have respect for this guy, probably because I've actually seen him run. The audacity of some of these Internationals, just rocking up thinking they'll nab a Melbourne Cup! Anyway, I still don't have him to win this but his run here was pretty good and you can expect improvement.

Professor: Good European form and a solid `settler.' Well weighted for an Ebor winner, good value at the $26. If you're shopping at $26, this is probably the one you'd want to be on.

19. SAPTAPADI Symons/Ellison 52 (22)

Captain: This thing's form looks shite but I'm not convinced that it actually is a shitter at the two miles. I think he might be competitive but will not be winning...

Professor: For me, this is the first one that will be going backwards, and ruining somethings chances. SaptaSandmason.

20. SHAMROCKER Nolen/O'Brien 52 (24)

Captain: One of the early Cup favourites but she just hasn't come back in good order. Her form is awful and she jumps from the carpark.

Professor: Set for this, and if O'Brien has anything positive to say around 2:45 I'll give it a chance. I love the rocker.

21. THE VERMINATOR Newitt/Waller 52 (4)

Captain: Before Saturday's Mackinnon, I thought he was a sneaky chance at big odds in the Cup with good form around and in front of the Caulfield Cup placegetters. But his run on Saturday was uninspiring to say the least; he hadn't had a run for a while so maybe you could put it down to that, but if so, you'd be admitting that he's massively underdone for the Cup. A cheeky effort wouldn't surprise but on his Mackinnon run, he's no chance.

Professor: I'd have given this all the chance in the world if it produced anything on Saturday. Can't have.

22. TULLAMORE Munce/Waterhouse 52 (12)

Captain: Although he meets Americain 5 kgs better than in the Moonee Valley Cup, the 'Cain really destroyed him there. Just gobbled him up effortlessly and was cantering at the finish. And we know that the 'Cain prefers this trip. So you'd think that he can't win the race but has shown enough to convince that he'll be competitive.

Professor: Unders to me, as I doubt the 3200 really suits - and even at shorter distances it looks outclassed by the top ones here.

23. NIWOT Yendall/M & W Hawkes 51 (9)

Captain: Punters have gone bonkers after this guy won the Lexus, backing him in from $101 to $11...maybe at some point they'll realise that a). Green Moon went amiss, b). the only other serious opposition, Tullamore and Moyenne Corniche were scratched, and c). Macedonian and Anudjawun are not in Melbourne Cup 2011. He will be competitive as this is his trip and he's down in the weights, but is way under the odds after winning a lacklustre Lexus.

Professor: Is well under the odds now, Lexus form is good form, but it's now into Maluckyday odds, and it is no Maluckyday.

24. OLDER THAN TIME Clark/Waterhouse 51 (20)

Captain: I heard Gai talking up this horse and either she has punched in the numbers to her weather forecasting algorithm and it reads Track: Heavy 10, or she has pumped him full of 'roids. Or both. He was second in the Sydney Cup, but: a). The Sydney Cup is usually full of B-Graders and this year's was no exception, b). The 2011 Sydney Cup was run on a bog, c). The horse that won that race is an absolute bog track merchant and has done nothing else of note for it's entire career. It's astounding to me that a horse who ran a poofteenth of a length 2nd in a Melbourne Cup and with encouraging form, i.e Bauer, misses a start for this hack. It's a fucking outrage. Gai's enthusiasm can sometimes leave you seeing $ signs but don't be falling for it with this plodder.

Professor: I have nothing to add here. All yours if you want it. I'll bet the captain a six pack of his choosing that it beats SaptaSandmason home if he's keen though.

CAPTAIN'S SELECTIONS

1. Americain
2. Dunaden
3. Mourayan
4. Unusual Suspect

Throwing in one or both of Bart's horses is probably a good idea because as previously mentioned, he's a smarmy ol' bastard.

Looking every bit of his 112 years...

Professor's value corner:

It's pointless tipping my top four, as I won't come up with anything too different. However, if you're looking at value, a few that are well over the odds for me:

1. Dunaden (I think even $8 is big overs)

2. Unusual Suspect (out to $34 and blowing!)

3. Mourayan (A $10 chance for me)

4. Moyenne Corniche (Ticks enough boxes to make $34 silly)

5. At First Sight (See Mourayan)

Enjoy the great race!