WHAB's annual preview of the great race will be up first thing Tuesday morning!
And remember, 60% of the time we're right all the time!
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Monday, September 16, 2013
JOHNSON WATCH
He just seems to be always lurking in the background of Australian cricket. Playing the odd ODI or T20 to remind us he still exists. Just loitering on the fringes waiting for others in the Test squad to succumb to injuries. And then you think to yourself, "well they've tried this Johnson thing a few times before now, surely that's that"...
And then this clown writes this: http://www.cricketcountry.com/cricket-articles/Australia-need-Mitchell-Johnson-now-more-than-ever/30825
And George Bailey says this: http://sports.ndtv.com/the-ashes-2013/news/213146-george-bailey-backs-mitchell-johnson-for-ashes-return
And then some people try to pretend that he is made of stern stuff: http://sports.ndtv.com/cricket/news/213880-mitchell-johnson-relishes-crowd-taunts-adam-voges
And everyone starts blowing their load because he is bowling really, really fast: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-14/johnson-vows-to-put-england-on-back-foot/4957980
Perhaps forgetting that this super-fast, super-scary bowling returned 0/64 off 9.3 overs in a chase of just 228...
Perhaps forgetting that he is FUCKING RUBBISH.
LET ME REMIND YOU ALL ONCE AGAIN:
And then this clown writes this: http://www.cricketcountry.com/cricket-articles/Australia-need-Mitchell-Johnson-now-more-than-ever/30825
And George Bailey says this: http://sports.ndtv.com/the-ashes-2013/news/213146-george-bailey-backs-mitchell-johnson-for-ashes-return
And then some people try to pretend that he is made of stern stuff: http://sports.ndtv.com/cricket/news/213880-mitchell-johnson-relishes-crowd-taunts-adam-voges
And everyone starts blowing their load because he is bowling really, really fast: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-14/johnson-vows-to-put-england-on-back-foot/4957980
Perhaps forgetting that this super-fast, super-scary bowling returned 0/64 off 9.3 overs in a chase of just 228...
Perhaps forgetting that he is FUCKING RUBBISH.
LET ME REMIND YOU ALL ONCE AGAIN:
Monday, July 15, 2013
Ashes First Test Review
Firstly, well played Australia. Not many of us predicted that the boys would get within a cheating Pom and a blind umpire of pulling off a miraculous victory. Rogers and Watson look a solid opening partnership in the short term. Hughes came through with some first innings runs, though still looks to have a few issues to sort out. Smith surprised by actually contributing something to Australian cricket, a tidy first innings saved us from complete disaster. Pattinson, Starc and Siddle all showed plenty of purpose with the ball. And you just couldn't help but feel sorry for Haddin, a valiant effort to get us within a cheating Pom and a blind umpire of glorious victory, justifying his selection as vice-captain fully. Such bravery, yet ultimate defeat, one wonders how I survived this Test without alcohol (visiting the in-laws)...
And now to one Ashton Agar. Three weeks ago, I'd never been less excited about an Ashes series. A bit of interest started to creep back in after the appointment of Boof Lehmann, but still, we were surely up against it, and my patience had been worn thin over the last couple of years. My interest in Test cricket had indeed waned somewhat with each retirement of Warne, McGrath, Hayden, Langer, Gilchrist, Hussey etc etc. And at Trent Bridge, I realised why I hadn't been enjoying the game that much... I didn't have a hero any more. A guy capable of coming up with the unthinkable. A guy who doesn't know when to quit. A guy who isn't afraid of the moment. A guy who can conjure up some magic when all seems lost. A guy who can guts it out when the going is tough. Because it wasn't just the 98 he put on in the 163 run last wicket stand with Hughes in the first innings. It wasn't just the 2/82 (should have been 3-for if not for a cheating Pom and a blind umpire). But the 14 off 71 in the second innings, after all he'd done on debut to that point, those figures really epitomise the young man for me. At the time, we were pretty much beaten, but that gutsy 14 off 71 actually kept us in the game. So yeah, we lost the Test Match, and it left a bad taste in our mouths, even more so for those of us who butchered a 3 foot birdie putt on the Par 4 18th at Coffs Harbour Golf Course earlier that day, but I just think that as Aussie cricket fans, we've found ourselves so much more; a reason to get excited about Test Cricket once again. Another Ashes hero.
Now to England. Firstly, I would just like to say that I think James Anderson is a fantastic bowler. But beyond that, the guy just gives me the shits with his off-to-the-races cockbaggery when he takes a wicket. Pump your fist and high five by all means. Just quit running around all over the place like a young woman who's seen a cock for the first time. Alastair Cook...he seems all for this Anderson behaviour so that certainly leaves a question mark over the England captain...And he also seems okay with that c-word of a man Stuart Broad cheating his fucking ass off, so yeah I have a big query on his character, that's for sure. The mark of a man for me; would I have a beer with the guy? Out of this England side, I seriously would find it hard to sit through a pint with any of them. Particularly Mr Cheating His Ass Off Broad. Hopefully team management have sent Dave Warner out on the turps on a seek and destroy mission, and hopefully he doesn't mistake Joe Root for Broad this time...
And the umpires for the First Test can just fuck right off. They were an absolute disgrace. Bumbling fuckwits...
And now to one Ashton Agar. Three weeks ago, I'd never been less excited about an Ashes series. A bit of interest started to creep back in after the appointment of Boof Lehmann, but still, we were surely up against it, and my patience had been worn thin over the last couple of years. My interest in Test cricket had indeed waned somewhat with each retirement of Warne, McGrath, Hayden, Langer, Gilchrist, Hussey etc etc. And at Trent Bridge, I realised why I hadn't been enjoying the game that much... I didn't have a hero any more. A guy capable of coming up with the unthinkable. A guy who doesn't know when to quit. A guy who isn't afraid of the moment. A guy who can conjure up some magic when all seems lost. A guy who can guts it out when the going is tough. Because it wasn't just the 98 he put on in the 163 run last wicket stand with Hughes in the first innings. It wasn't just the 2/82 (should have been 3-for if not for a cheating Pom and a blind umpire). But the 14 off 71 in the second innings, after all he'd done on debut to that point, those figures really epitomise the young man for me. At the time, we were pretty much beaten, but that gutsy 14 off 71 actually kept us in the game. So yeah, we lost the Test Match, and it left a bad taste in our mouths, even more so for those of us who butchered a 3 foot birdie putt on the Par 4 18th at Coffs Harbour Golf Course earlier that day, but I just think that as Aussie cricket fans, we've found ourselves so much more; a reason to get excited about Test Cricket once again. Another Ashes hero.
Now to England. Firstly, I would just like to say that I think James Anderson is a fantastic bowler. But beyond that, the guy just gives me the shits with his off-to-the-races cockbaggery when he takes a wicket. Pump your fist and high five by all means. Just quit running around all over the place like a young woman who's seen a cock for the first time. Alastair Cook...he seems all for this Anderson behaviour so that certainly leaves a question mark over the England captain...And he also seems okay with that c-word of a man Stuart Broad cheating his fucking ass off, so yeah I have a big query on his character, that's for sure. The mark of a man for me; would I have a beer with the guy? Out of this England side, I seriously would find it hard to sit through a pint with any of them. Particularly Mr Cheating His Ass Off Broad. Hopefully team management have sent Dave Warner out on the turps on a seek and destroy mission, and hopefully he doesn't mistake Joe Root for Broad this time...
And the umpires for the First Test can just fuck right off. They were an absolute disgrace. Bumbling fuckwits...
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
ASHES TOUR 2013
With Mickey Arthur's penchant for the unorthodox and retarded, so came his downfall, and we here at WHAB are pleased that the reign of Boof has begun. That's certainly not to say that all our worries are over but at least things seem to be heading in a direction that isn't a 10-0 trainwreck. With both sides as yet unnamed, Australia's in particular being a bit up in the air, let's just have a look at some key points for Trent Bridge.
First Test Points Of Note
* As yet, Mitchell Johnson has not been considered for selection.
* As yet, Steve Smith has not been considered for selection.
* Neither Mitchell Johnson or Steve Smith have been considered for selection at this stage.
* Alastair Cook averages a paltry 19 at Trent Bridge. While that sounds like good news for Australia, in racing parlance, he's due.
* Graeme Swann has just 3 wickets at 65 at Trent Bridge. While that sounds like good news for Australia, in racing parlance, he's due.
* Australia need to bowl like this:
* And this:
THE VERDICT: Pattinson is rightly a lock on opening the bowling and England's recent form against left-armers warrants Starc's selection. The concern with Starc is his lack of ticker when things aren't going our way and a tendency to leak quick runs. Jackson Bird may well turn out to be the closest thing to the great T. Alderman that we'll ever have but it doesn't appear that he'll get a start here. It baffled me how a guy can have such a brilliant start to his Test career, as Bird did, then got put back on the shelf, maybe Mickey Arthur can enlighten us when he pens his memoirs. Anyway, looks as if they'll go for Siddle because of his willingness to bust a gut and bowl long spells. Watson will supply some tight overs and hopefully come through without another injury. Lyon is yet to prove he is up to Test cricket. His wickets come when the team is well placed in a match. The unthreatening nature of his 4th and 5th day bowling is a massive concern given the calibre of batsmen we need to roll twice to win an Ashes Test. He needs to fire when it matters or that will be the end of that. Johnson and Smith are not in considerations at this point, England fans will be bitterly disappointed there.
Batting wise, Australia are thin. Cowan and Hughes have been given a fair go in the last year or so and haven't inspired any trust in fans. I would be playing Khawaja before either of them. Rogers' selection stabilises the top order given his form in English conditions and one has to remember, that while I prefer Watson down the order, his form opening with Katich was solid indeed. In fact, we haven't had any stability at the top since the Kat was stabbed in the back and the selectors/Clarke broke up a perfectly decent opening pair. Clarke is the rock in the batting order but we cannot rely on him to the shocking extent we have in recent times, more contributions are needed. Warner, well I wouldn't pick him for this personally, not until he proves he can go a lengthy period of time without being a total cockspanker.
England have quality with bat and ball, there are some weaknesses there no doubt, but Australia is going to have to play very well to expose those and get a good result here. Given their appalling recent form, it's hard to imagine Boof turning it all around in the space of a couple of weeks, but at least it looks like he's got things going in the right direction. I'm expecting a competitive start to the series, or series', and as for 10-0, you can blow that out your arse England!
Sunday, July 7, 2013
Channel 7 Just Don't Get Sport
The first thing I want to say here on my return from long service leave is that I absolutely fucking loathe having to change channels during a TV program. It's just one of those little things in life that I can't get past. Can't let go. Can't fathom. Free to air sports programs seem to be the most affected by this abhorrence. And sure, you might say well it's only the click of a button, it's not such a big deal, but quite frankly, it is a big fucking deal and that's one fucking button too many for me. When Channel 7 think that it's okay to make viewers switch channels during a Men's Wimbledon Final, well that just takes the fucking cake. Disrespect and half-assedness of the highest order. A great big slap in the face from the kings of butchering tennis coverage. When Inspector Morse "Endeavour" is deemed immovable by 7, one wonders why the fuck they bother with some piss-ant Wimbledon Final between a World Number 1 and Britain's great hope...
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Counterpoint: send them home!
This is not to support the current regime - it is difficult to see any progress in many players in the test team under Mickey Arthur. And it is difficult to see improvement in this rabble over the
past year. Often, the simplest call in cases like this is to blame this
on the coach. And, from the outside looking in - one can definitely see
that the new regime has failed to bring along some of the teams senior
players - with the exception of Michael Clarke. Notable amongst this
group is Shane Watson.
This is not to say that the batting lineup that will be trotted out for the third test will be watchable. While there is probably some semblance of the top six that will go to the Ashes in Cowan, Warner, Hughes and Clarke - the long awaited test match return of one Steve Smith should fill everyone with dread. Glen Maxwell also appears to be a Smith level douche.
Say what you will about this rabble though, at least they did their fucking homework. To me, what speaks more about this "homework" assignment is that most of the squad did do it. Ed Cowan spent five minutes doing his homework. David Warner spent half a day opening Power Point. Or got Cowan to do his. And then stole his lunch money.
To me, that a couple of senior players didn't manage theirs demonstrates that these senior players may be a big factor in the malaise that seems to have struck this team in the last six months. That two guys who have spent the last month ghost writing Michael Clarke's tour diary couldn't do this is even more damning.
If the message from Arthur was along the lines of:
Rather than blaming the system, as ex-players are wont to do, one could simply make the case that Australian cricket's poor results in the last six months have more to do with a general lack of elite talent and a tough schedule - South Africa at home, India away - that this team isn't up for.
This is not to say that the batting lineup that will be trotted out for the third test will be watchable. While there is probably some semblance of the top six that will go to the Ashes in Cowan, Warner, Hughes and Clarke - the long awaited test match return of one Steve Smith should fill everyone with dread. Glen Maxwell also appears to be a Smith level douche.
Say what you will about this rabble though, at least they did their fucking homework. To me, what speaks more about this "homework" assignment is that most of the squad did do it. Ed Cowan spent five minutes doing his homework. David Warner spent half a day opening Power Point. Or got Cowan to do his. And then stole his lunch money.
To me, that a couple of senior players didn't manage theirs demonstrates that these senior players may be a big factor in the malaise that seems to have struck this team in the last six months. That two guys who have spent the last month ghost writing Michael Clarke's tour diary couldn't do this is even more damning.
If the message from Arthur was along the lines of:
- We've been comprehensively smashed in the last two tests.
- Morale is broken.
- You might not like the idea of putting together 5 powerpoint slides that explain:
- what has gone wrong;
- what you need to do better; and
- how we can pull together to win the Ashes.
- But it's important.
- And if you can't do this, then you are a big part of the problem and can fuck right off.
Rather than blaming the system, as ex-players are wont to do, one could simply make the case that Australian cricket's poor results in the last six months have more to do with a general lack of elite talent and a tough schedule - South Africa at home, India away - that this team isn't up for.
Assclown Of The Month - February
Well, we were just about to give this award to John Inverarity again, given the state of Aussie cricket at the moment, but someone else within the Aussie cricket ranks stuck his hand up. And although it is technically March when news has broken that Mickey Arthur's answer to us being shit is to give grown men homework, I'm guessing February was full of the same sort of bullshit, given our performances. The end result of this guy's kindergarten approach to us being fucking hopeless, is to send home our best pace bowler, and a guy who, before injury woes, was holding this team together with both batting and bowling, and a guy who can potentially replace or bump Hughes up the order to replace our opener who is barely managing to average 30...
Anyway, after these naughty fuckers didn't pay some nerd to do their homework, I'm now trying to work out our batting order for the Third Test: Cowan (great!), Warner (hit and miss), Hughes (untrustworthy), Clarke (this is partly your fault because you are, for some unfathomable reason, a selector), Smith (fuck yeah!), Wade (potentially injured, and yeah, of course we didn't take a back up keeper, let alone batsmen), Henriques, Maxwell (out of control slogger) and then the bowlers...
Wow. How fucking underwhelming.
And to think this guy has tried to trot out Glenn Maxwell...as a Test player...and now we'll have have to trot out Steve Smith as a Test batsmen...
Has this team improved at all under Mickey Arthur? If, by improved, you mean just fucking unwatchable, then yeah...
Top marks. An A fucking +.
What do we need this South African Assclown for anyway? We've already got a SuperCoach in waiting, our very own Boof Lehmann!
Anyway, after these naughty fuckers didn't pay some nerd to do their homework, I'm now trying to work out our batting order for the Third Test: Cowan (great!), Warner (hit and miss), Hughes (untrustworthy), Clarke (this is partly your fault because you are, for some unfathomable reason, a selector), Smith (fuck yeah!), Wade (potentially injured, and yeah, of course we didn't take a back up keeper, let alone batsmen), Henriques, Maxwell (out of control slogger) and then the bowlers...
Wow. How fucking underwhelming.
And to think this guy has tried to trot out Glenn Maxwell...as a Test player...and now we'll have have to trot out Steve Smith as a Test batsmen...
Has this team improved at all under Mickey Arthur? If, by improved, you mean just fucking unwatchable, then yeah...
Top marks. An A fucking +.
There is nothing even fucking remotely funny about this shit you Jaapie fucker...
What do we need this South African Assclown for anyway? We've already got a SuperCoach in waiting, our very own Boof Lehmann!
Monday, February 4, 2013
Assclown Of The Month - January
After much deliberation, our panel of experts were unable to split the two standout candidates for January's Assclown Of The Month award. That's right, it's a TIE!!!
Co-Assclown Of The Month #1: JOHN INVERARITY
Firstly, this guy just looks so fucking old:
The last time I saw someone that looked this old, they drove past a "no exit" sign, proceeded to drive in the wrong direction around a roundabout, then tried to reverse into oncoming traffic and got stuck facing the wrong way at the traffic lights at said roundabout.
Secondly, this guy is just a fucking extension of Andrew "Assclown Himself" Hilditch, I have seen no overall improvements in the scheme of Australian cricket under this old bastard. He's largely ignored the Argus, will no doubt ignore the Warnie, can't be told anything by anyone, has ramped up "rotation" to the point of insanity, which has left us with many injured bowlers (because instead of actually bowling everyday they spend their time fucking around with upper body weights and downtime (onya Pat Howard)), has given Michael Clarke (a petty and selfish man) a spot on the selectors panel, has left us with the possible horror story of a Maxwell/Smith middle order in India (fuck me dead) not to mention a possible Maxwell/Smith bowling attack (kill me now), not to mention that Steve Fucking Smith might actually get somewhere near that flight to Heathrow, and lastly, he's just so fucking old and has no fucking idea what he's doing. No more worthy candidate. Or is there?!?!?
Co-Assclown Of The Month #2: RAY LEWIS
Watching this assclown's blubbering pro-God bullshit after playoff wins against Denver (who grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory), and New England ($1.20 favourites in a playoff game, LAY THAT SHIT ALL DAY!!!), before enduring him collecting another Superbowl ring, well I still remember that the guy is an absolute c-word of a human being. Let me refresh your memory: Murder investigation. Missing white suit. Victims' blood in his limo. Dobs in friends. Obstructs justice. Pays off victims' families. 6 kids from 4 different woman. 4 different women that he's beaten up. Sorry Ray, your team was the better team in the Superbowl, it had nothing to do with God because it's safe to say that he thinks you're a c*#t too...
Co-Assclown Of The Month #1: JOHN INVERARITY
Firstly, this guy just looks so fucking old:
The last time I saw someone that looked this old, they drove past a "no exit" sign, proceeded to drive in the wrong direction around a roundabout, then tried to reverse into oncoming traffic and got stuck facing the wrong way at the traffic lights at said roundabout.
Secondly, this guy is just a fucking extension of Andrew "Assclown Himself" Hilditch, I have seen no overall improvements in the scheme of Australian cricket under this old bastard. He's largely ignored the Argus, will no doubt ignore the Warnie, can't be told anything by anyone, has ramped up "rotation" to the point of insanity, which has left us with many injured bowlers (because instead of actually bowling everyday they spend their time fucking around with upper body weights and downtime (onya Pat Howard)), has given Michael Clarke (a petty and selfish man) a spot on the selectors panel, has left us with the possible horror story of a Maxwell/Smith middle order in India (fuck me dead) not to mention a possible Maxwell/Smith bowling attack (kill me now), not to mention that Steve Fucking Smith might actually get somewhere near that flight to Heathrow, and lastly, he's just so fucking old and has no fucking idea what he's doing. No more worthy candidate. Or is there?!?!?
Co-Assclown Of The Month #2: RAY LEWIS
Watching this assclown's blubbering pro-God bullshit after playoff wins against Denver (who grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory), and New England ($1.20 favourites in a playoff game, LAY THAT SHIT ALL DAY!!!), before enduring him collecting another Superbowl ring, well I still remember that the guy is an absolute c-word of a human being. Let me refresh your memory: Murder investigation. Missing white suit. Victims' blood in his limo. Dobs in friends. Obstructs justice. Pays off victims' families. 6 kids from 4 different woman. 4 different women that he's beaten up. Sorry Ray, your team was the better team in the Superbowl, it had nothing to do with God because it's safe to say that he thinks you're a c*#t too...
"Man Don't Decide That. God Decide That."
Pretty sure God has bigger issues to deal with than making sure an assclown like you wins another Superbowl...
Friday, February 1, 2013
A good day for bit players
I stopped posting regularly a couple of years back for a couple of reasons. First, my work and life commitments increased. Second, the Argus review filled me with hope that the dark days of inept selections were behind us.
But then this happened. Rejoice, bit-players!
More to come on this squad later, but my first thoughts when I read it are that the selectors have no plan. Off the top of my head, the first choice team right now is probably along the lines of:
- Cowan, Warner, Hughes, Watson, Clarke, Khawaja, Wade, Siddle, Starc, Pattinson, Lyon.
- Cowan, Warner, Hughes, Watson, Clarke, Henriques, Wade, Siddle, Doherty, Pattinson, Lyon; or
- Cowan, Warner, Hughes, Watson, Clarke, Maxwell, Wade, Siddle, Starc, Pattinson, Lyon.
The really difficult selection to fathom here is Steve F. Smith.* Looking at the three possible line-ups listed above, it is difficult to see what role SFS would play. As much as I am a fan of Ed Cowan (Ed has his own article coming next week), I understand the need to have a reserve batsman on tour, to either cover for poor form from Cowan or Khawaja - or, I don't know, an INJURY. At the moment, your reserve batsman is Steve Smith. If one of the top five batsmen get injured, get ready for a middle order of Smith & Maxwell at five and six**. That's what this squad sets up. My first choice for the 17th member of the squad would have been Brad Haddin, for his ability to act as an adequate cover for the top six batsmen, and I don't know push/cover Matthew Wade. Otherwise, take your pick of Bailey, Ferguson, Doolan, D. Hussey or whoever else you want, really.* Steve Fucking Smith
** Hey, maybe Smith gets lucky and then he's your starting number six in the Ashes. You brought this on yourselves, Australia.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Melbourne Cup 2012
Welcome all to WHAB's annual Melbourne Cup Preview! Normally at this time of year I am joined by the Professor to discuss all things Cup but I'm afraid it's a dry argument when you're stuck in the Middle East.
Hopefully he'll at least be able to get some internet bets on and find coverage of the Cup on Al Jazeera. Anyway, I'm getting dribs and drabs from the man, so we'll piece together his tips. Let's roll!
1. DUNADEN 59 Williams/Delzangles
Captain: If you saw his win in the Caulfield Cup, on a day when nothing was running on from the back, consider that the only other horse with 58kg to even run a place in that event in the last 30 years was the great Northerly, and yeah, remember that he won this race last year, if you consider all this and don't have him in your multiples, then you sir, are an assclown.
Chaos: Indeed. 59 kg in the Melbourne Cup is a lot of weight. A lot of weight. At the same time, 58 kg was a lot of weight in the Caulfield Cup. Mot impressive Caulfield Cup run in my memory, and for me a must have.
2. AMERICAIN 58 Oliver/De Royer Dupre
Captain: Staggering how a horse that won this in 2010 and with any sort of luck would have won last year as well was offered at 30/1. That's right, 30/1 on a horse who is just perfectly suited to this race. Like I said, with any sort of luck in the run would have won last year, so to try and take luck out of the equation, Oliver replaces Mosse, who despite riding a great race on him in the 2010 Cup, has preferred the company of revellers on the grandstand fence in recent times. Ran a very nice Caulfield Cup, better suited here at two miles, and meets Dunaden 4.5kg better than in last year's Cup. Anyway, I see they're currently offering $6 on him...
Chaos: Beginning to drift in the market, now out to $8. I think the run in the Caulfield Cup was good, though nowhere near the quality of Dunaden's run. A must for your top four, but I prefer the other two French horses, though only barely.
3. JAKKALBERRY 55.5 O'Donoghue/Botti
Captain: Racking up the frequent flyers, some of his runs on his World Tour have been really good, others not so good. My biggest concern is he's never drawn anywhere near gate 19, never raced in a 24 horse field, and I think they are big issues for him here. Has ability but will have to pass.
Chaos: Passing on Jakkalberry. Some good runs, I just prefer others.
4. RED CADEAUX 55.5 Rodd/Dunlop
Captain: Beaten the width of a pubic hair last year and will be going close again. Curiously has been slugged 2kg on last year for winning a Group 2 in the UK...Dunaden carries 4.5kg more for winning a Melbourne Cup, a Hong Kong Vase and a Caulfield Cup. Perhaps a bit harshly dealt with considering, but he will be in the finish nonetheless and any rain would help.
Chaos: Along with Dunaden, this one is my top pick for this years running. The weight turnaround on Dunaden is enough to give this a real shake. All runs since have demonstrated that he hasn't gotten worse since last year, and at least we know he runs the trip and can deal with a field of this size.
5. WINCHESTER 55.5 Mott/Sadler
Captain: Probably the greatest plugger to ever visit these shores, he's always thereabouts. By thereabouts, I mean plugging home solidly for 7th. Just plugs all day. Unfortunately for Winchester, you can't win a Melbourne Cup plugging...at the price is worth a thought for multiples though.
Chaos: Every year, only 10 horses or so genuinely run the trip. This will be one of them - so at $41 he's worth a ticket. The form in the lead in has been good enough as well.
6. VOILA ICI 55 Duric/Moody
Captain: I was on him at big odds for the Caulfield Cup, he jarred up, ran last, and that is about the worst lead up you can have for a Cup. Moody even said himself that there are others who deserve to be in the Cup more than this, but selfishly accepted anyway. In fairness, I would have done the same. He'll play the role of the Aidan O'Brien runner, set a Lightning Stks tempo and knock up near the tail. Big wooden spoon hope.
Chaos: The captain twisted my arm to have a good piece of this in the Caulfield Cup. I won't be doubling up here.
7. CAVALRYMAN 54 Dettori/Bin Suroor
Captain: Cavalryman circa 2009 goes pretty close to winning this. Not sure about this year's edition, seems a lot more dour these day, but obviously two miles looks his go and this is the least amount of weight he's ever carried. I will leave him out, but won't consider you an assclown if you throw him in...
Chaos: Passing.
8. MOUNT ATHOS 54 Moore/Cumani
Captain: I have the utmost respect for Luca Cumani, and his daughter is a good sort, but question where this one is in the market here. He's been winning comfortably but he's not beaten much, granted he's been carrying some bullshit weights, but this is a huge acid test. At the odds, would you really back him before the two Frenchies?
Chaos: Will likely start favourite given the last few hours of betting. I'd prefer the three French horses to him, but I understand why you'd chase this one.
9. SANAGAS 54 Hall/Bart Cummings
Captain: I was about to tee off about how fucking hopeless this thing is, but upon further investigation, perhaps it's not so bad. Hard to see it winning but if I'm being honest, it's form is probably as good as Viewed's was going into this, if not better...one to think about if you want some really juice in your multiples...
Chaos: I am not seeing what the Captain is seeing here. Pass!
10. ETHIOPIA 53.5 McLeod/Carey
Captain: Despite Pat Carey usurping Lloyd Williams as the racing industry's king of spin-doctoring, you should keep this one very safe. Originally one of my two Cups horses for the Spring, I've had to endure Carey's will he or won't he bullshit for the last 12 weeks, when he should have straight up said Ethiopia was always being set for the Cup and nothing but the Cup. Only time he stepped out to a trip he powered home from last to win the AJC Derby. Would be something if he had just his second career win in the Cup...
Chaos: Form is very good, and this to me is by far the pick of the Australian runners. Along with the French horses rounds out my top four.
11. FIORENTE 53.5 McDonald/Waterhouse
Captain: I'll grant that this has ability but I'm leaving it out.
Chaos: Team Waterhouse is a concern - the distance races don't tend to suit the classic Waterhouse approach. However, this one is a recent addition, has form around the best European horses, and has been out-and-out missed by the handicapper. Add to that a scintillating gallop last week, and you have the pick of the roughies.
12. GALILEO'S CHOICE 53.5 Smullen/Weld
Captain: Dermot Weld has always given me the shits with his incessant pissin' an' moanin'. Apparently he's been in good spirits, hopefully this thing bombs, he becomes a cranky old bastard again and order is restored. Because it would make a mockery of our Great Race if a fucking hurdler gets up. That's right, he's been preparing for this over the jumps. Fuck me.
Chaos: Team Weld's supporters have smashed this overnight. Probably gets 2 miles without too much problems and has really in my opinion been missed by the handicapper.
13. GLENCADAM GOLD 53.5 Berry/Waterhouse
Captain: Worked early in the Caulfield Cup but more was expected and not delivered. I wasn't convinced of him getting two miles before and I am all but certain he won't after that. Will get in an epic speed battle with Voila Ici and they'll finish together, at the wrong end of the field.
Chaos: The shine is off after Caulfield. To an extent, you could say that Kellini went out and franked the Metrop form last week. If you can forgive the Caulfield run you could have this one at odds, but combine it with the front running style, and even with some considerable improvement this one is hard to see winning. Likely to SANDMASON this one and set up the backmarkers.
14. GREEN MOON 53.5 Prebble/Hickmott
Captain: No idea why he ran in the Cox, no idea why he started favourite there. Like Glencadam Gold, there is nothing in his CV that says he runs two miles. Under the odds.
Chaos: Favourite for everything this year a few weeks ago from the Metrop to the Cox, to the Caulfield to this race and next season of Masterchef. This is one overrated animal.
15. MALUCKYDAY 53.5 Cassidy/Team Hawkes
Captain: Even forgetting the farcically run Geelong Cup, the Tanby form was found wanting in the Lexus. Will be competitive, but agree with the Professor here, they really have got the Aussie market wrong. He's not the same horse as he was when he ran 2nd in this race in 2010.
Chaos: The form hasn't been good enough for me and shouldn't be the top Aussie chance - one has to think that Mourayan, Ethiopia and Lights of Heaven are going much better.
16. MOURAYAN 53.5 Bowman/Hickmott
Captain: I liked this guy last year but in typical Williams' camp fashion they waited till everyone had backed it before scratching it late. Nothing to say that won't happen again I guess, but if he runs, he's a chance. Will park just behind the speed and will run the two miles. That's exactly what you're looking for in a Cup, the only question is whether he is good enough. Throw him into your exotics.
Chaos: I'll let the Captain sell you on this one.
17. MY QUEST FOR PEACE 53.5 Brown/Cumani
Captain: I have the utmost respect for Luca Cumani, and his daughter is a good sort, but I wanted to see more form this one in the Caulfield Cup to pique my interest, he really had every chance there.
Chaos: Did enough in the Caulfield to warrant a serious look, but you can't have them all..
18. NIWOT 53.5 Dunn/Team Hawkes
Captain: Nothing in his recent form suggests he will improve on last year's 8th carrying 2.5kg more...
Chaos: I'll have a cheeky $5er on Niwot on the off chance that he finds his A-game. But, I do love Niwot. You aren't likely as emotionally involved, so best to leave alone.
19. TAC DE BOISTRON 53.5 Doleuze/Kent
Captain: No rain, no Tac.
Chaos: Would be a special if this was being run in New York last week.
20. LIGHTS OF HEAVEN 53 Nolen/Moody
Captain: I'd be backing this before Kelinni and Maluckyday at similar odds, that's for sure. Bred to stay and should be at her peak for this.
Chaos: Had all the favours in the Caulfield Cup. That said, this is a very well weighted horse and capable of upstaging the imports if they run this at a slow pace.
21. PRECEDENCE 53 Shinn/Cummings
Captain: I know he's out of Zabeel but he just doesn't get two miles. Bart is just taking the piss.
Chaos: Piss is being taken.
22. UNUSUAL SUSPECT 53 Schofield/Kent
Captain: This guy's form speaks for itself so instead, here's something more interesting...
Chaos: I suspect this one would be better off in the Long Black, where he'd still need to be paying double figures.
23. ZABEELIONAIRE: 52 Newitt/Corstens
Captain: Bryan Martin made the mistake of comparing his run in the Mackinnon to a Bart Cummings stayer. Then all the Channel 7 people picked up on it because they don't have any opinions of their own and it has just got out of hand. Fuck Channel 7. He'll beat more home than beat him but doubt he has the class to take this out.
Chaos: No better than Winchester in his Mackinnon run. And Winchester has the pedigree and has had a more consistent prep.
24. KELINNI 51 Boss/Waller
Captain: While you can't ever right off a Lexus winner completely, I'm not convinced the form there will stack up this time. At $19, well, Lights Of Heaven is at that price, and has much better credentials. No value at all.
Chaos: Waller is a training ninja, so to me this one can't be written off. And is there any greater ninja move than the 30 day break, run, and three day back up?
Captain:
1. Americain
2. Dunaden
3. Red Cadeaux
4. Ethiopia
Boxing those four with Lights Of Heaven and Mourayan. Should be cleaning up big time!
Chaos: My top four are Red Cadeaux - Dunaden - Ethiopia - Fiorente. Obviously worried about Americain and Mt Athos. I could probably add Galileo's Choice to my bets as well.
For a $100 investment I will likely look at
$25 win Red Cadeaux = $212.50
$30 win Dunaden = $240
$15 win Ethiopia = $315
$10/$10 Fiorente = $310/100
The Professor on assignment for WHAB...
Hopefully he'll at least be able to get some internet bets on and find coverage of the Cup on Al Jazeera. Anyway, I'm getting dribs and drabs from the man, so we'll piece together his tips. Let's roll!
1. DUNADEN 59 Williams/Delzangles
Captain: If you saw his win in the Caulfield Cup, on a day when nothing was running on from the back, consider that the only other horse with 58kg to even run a place in that event in the last 30 years was the great Northerly, and yeah, remember that he won this race last year, if you consider all this and don't have him in your multiples, then you sir, are an assclown.
Chaos: Indeed. 59 kg in the Melbourne Cup is a lot of weight. A lot of weight. At the same time, 58 kg was a lot of weight in the Caulfield Cup. Mot impressive Caulfield Cup run in my memory, and for me a must have.
2. AMERICAIN 58 Oliver/De Royer Dupre
Captain: Staggering how a horse that won this in 2010 and with any sort of luck would have won last year as well was offered at 30/1. That's right, 30/1 on a horse who is just perfectly suited to this race. Like I said, with any sort of luck in the run would have won last year, so to try and take luck out of the equation, Oliver replaces Mosse, who despite riding a great race on him in the 2010 Cup, has preferred the company of revellers on the grandstand fence in recent times. Ran a very nice Caulfield Cup, better suited here at two miles, and meets Dunaden 4.5kg better than in last year's Cup. Anyway, I see they're currently offering $6 on him...
Chaos: Beginning to drift in the market, now out to $8. I think the run in the Caulfield Cup was good, though nowhere near the quality of Dunaden's run. A must for your top four, but I prefer the other two French horses, though only barely.
3. JAKKALBERRY 55.5 O'Donoghue/Botti
Captain: Racking up the frequent flyers, some of his runs on his World Tour have been really good, others not so good. My biggest concern is he's never drawn anywhere near gate 19, never raced in a 24 horse field, and I think they are big issues for him here. Has ability but will have to pass.
Chaos: Passing on Jakkalberry. Some good runs, I just prefer others.
4. RED CADEAUX 55.5 Rodd/Dunlop
Captain: Beaten the width of a pubic hair last year and will be going close again. Curiously has been slugged 2kg on last year for winning a Group 2 in the UK...Dunaden carries 4.5kg more for winning a Melbourne Cup, a Hong Kong Vase and a Caulfield Cup. Perhaps a bit harshly dealt with considering, but he will be in the finish nonetheless and any rain would help.
Chaos: Along with Dunaden, this one is my top pick for this years running. The weight turnaround on Dunaden is enough to give this a real shake. All runs since have demonstrated that he hasn't gotten worse since last year, and at least we know he runs the trip and can deal with a field of this size.
5. WINCHESTER 55.5 Mott/Sadler
Captain: Probably the greatest plugger to ever visit these shores, he's always thereabouts. By thereabouts, I mean plugging home solidly for 7th. Just plugs all day. Unfortunately for Winchester, you can't win a Melbourne Cup plugging...at the price is worth a thought for multiples though.
Chaos: Every year, only 10 horses or so genuinely run the trip. This will be one of them - so at $41 he's worth a ticket. The form in the lead in has been good enough as well.
6. VOILA ICI 55 Duric/Moody
Captain: I was on him at big odds for the Caulfield Cup, he jarred up, ran last, and that is about the worst lead up you can have for a Cup. Moody even said himself that there are others who deserve to be in the Cup more than this, but selfishly accepted anyway. In fairness, I would have done the same. He'll play the role of the Aidan O'Brien runner, set a Lightning Stks tempo and knock up near the tail. Big wooden spoon hope.
Voila Ici at the 600m...
Chaos: The captain twisted my arm to have a good piece of this in the Caulfield Cup. I won't be doubling up here.
7. CAVALRYMAN 54 Dettori/Bin Suroor
Captain: Cavalryman circa 2009 goes pretty close to winning this. Not sure about this year's edition, seems a lot more dour these day, but obviously two miles looks his go and this is the least amount of weight he's ever carried. I will leave him out, but won't consider you an assclown if you throw him in...
Chaos: Passing.
8. MOUNT ATHOS 54 Moore/Cumani
Captain: I have the utmost respect for Luca Cumani, and his daughter is a good sort, but question where this one is in the market here. He's been winning comfortably but he's not beaten much, granted he's been carrying some bullshit weights, but this is a huge acid test. At the odds, would you really back him before the two Frenchies?
Chaos: Will likely start favourite given the last few hours of betting. I'd prefer the three French horses to him, but I understand why you'd chase this one.
9. SANAGAS 54 Hall/Bart Cummings
Captain: I was about to tee off about how fucking hopeless this thing is, but upon further investigation, perhaps it's not so bad. Hard to see it winning but if I'm being honest, it's form is probably as good as Viewed's was going into this, if not better...one to think about if you want some really juice in your multiples...
Chaos: I am not seeing what the Captain is seeing here. Pass!
10. ETHIOPIA 53.5 McLeod/Carey
Captain: Despite Pat Carey usurping Lloyd Williams as the racing industry's king of spin-doctoring, you should keep this one very safe. Originally one of my two Cups horses for the Spring, I've had to endure Carey's will he or won't he bullshit for the last 12 weeks, when he should have straight up said Ethiopia was always being set for the Cup and nothing but the Cup. Only time he stepped out to a trip he powered home from last to win the AJC Derby. Would be something if he had just his second career win in the Cup...
Chaos: Form is very good, and this to me is by far the pick of the Australian runners. Along with the French horses rounds out my top four.
11. FIORENTE 53.5 McDonald/Waterhouse
Captain: I'll grant that this has ability but I'm leaving it out.
Chaos: Team Waterhouse is a concern - the distance races don't tend to suit the classic Waterhouse approach. However, this one is a recent addition, has form around the best European horses, and has been out-and-out missed by the handicapper. Add to that a scintillating gallop last week, and you have the pick of the roughies.
12. GALILEO'S CHOICE 53.5 Smullen/Weld
Captain: Dermot Weld has always given me the shits with his incessant pissin' an' moanin'. Apparently he's been in good spirits, hopefully this thing bombs, he becomes a cranky old bastard again and order is restored. Because it would make a mockery of our Great Race if a fucking hurdler gets up. That's right, he's been preparing for this over the jumps. Fuck me.
Chaos: Team Weld's supporters have smashed this overnight. Probably gets 2 miles without too much problems and has really in my opinion been missed by the handicapper.
13. GLENCADAM GOLD 53.5 Berry/Waterhouse
Captain: Worked early in the Caulfield Cup but more was expected and not delivered. I wasn't convinced of him getting two miles before and I am all but certain he won't after that. Will get in an epic speed battle with Voila Ici and they'll finish together, at the wrong end of the field.
Chaos: The shine is off after Caulfield. To an extent, you could say that Kellini went out and franked the Metrop form last week. If you can forgive the Caulfield run you could have this one at odds, but combine it with the front running style, and even with some considerable improvement this one is hard to see winning. Likely to SANDMASON this one and set up the backmarkers.
14. GREEN MOON 53.5 Prebble/Hickmott
Captain: No idea why he ran in the Cox, no idea why he started favourite there. Like Glencadam Gold, there is nothing in his CV that says he runs two miles. Under the odds.
Chaos: Favourite for everything this year a few weeks ago from the Metrop to the Cox, to the Caulfield to this race and next season of Masterchef. This is one overrated animal.
Green Moon gears up for Masterchef Series 5...
15. MALUCKYDAY 53.5 Cassidy/Team Hawkes
Captain: Even forgetting the farcically run Geelong Cup, the Tanby form was found wanting in the Lexus. Will be competitive, but agree with the Professor here, they really have got the Aussie market wrong. He's not the same horse as he was when he ran 2nd in this race in 2010.
Chaos: The form hasn't been good enough for me and shouldn't be the top Aussie chance - one has to think that Mourayan, Ethiopia and Lights of Heaven are going much better.
16. MOURAYAN 53.5 Bowman/Hickmott
Captain: I liked this guy last year but in typical Williams' camp fashion they waited till everyone had backed it before scratching it late. Nothing to say that won't happen again I guess, but if he runs, he's a chance. Will park just behind the speed and will run the two miles. That's exactly what you're looking for in a Cup, the only question is whether he is good enough. Throw him into your exotics.
Chaos: I'll let the Captain sell you on this one.
17. MY QUEST FOR PEACE 53.5 Brown/Cumani
Captain: I have the utmost respect for Luca Cumani, and his daughter is a good sort, but I wanted to see more form this one in the Caulfield Cup to pique my interest, he really had every chance there.
Chaos: Did enough in the Caulfield to warrant a serious look, but you can't have them all..
18. NIWOT 53.5 Dunn/Team Hawkes
Captain: Nothing in his recent form suggests he will improve on last year's 8th carrying 2.5kg more...
Chaos: I'll have a cheeky $5er on Niwot on the off chance that he finds his A-game. But, I do love Niwot. You aren't likely as emotionally involved, so best to leave alone.
19. TAC DE BOISTRON 53.5 Doleuze/Kent
Captain: No rain, no Tac.
Chaos: Would be a special if this was being run in New York last week.
20. LIGHTS OF HEAVEN 53 Nolen/Moody
Captain: I'd be backing this before Kelinni and Maluckyday at similar odds, that's for sure. Bred to stay and should be at her peak for this.
Chaos: Had all the favours in the Caulfield Cup. That said, this is a very well weighted horse and capable of upstaging the imports if they run this at a slow pace.
21. PRECEDENCE 53 Shinn/Cummings
Captain: I know he's out of Zabeel but he just doesn't get two miles. Bart is just taking the piss.
Chaos: Piss is being taken.
22. UNUSUAL SUSPECT 53 Schofield/Kent
Captain: This guy's form speaks for itself so instead, here's something more interesting...
Chaos: I suspect this one would be better off in the Long Black, where he'd still need to be paying double figures.
23. ZABEELIONAIRE: 52 Newitt/Corstens
Captain: Bryan Martin made the mistake of comparing his run in the Mackinnon to a Bart Cummings stayer. Then all the Channel 7 people picked up on it because they don't have any opinions of their own and it has just got out of hand. Fuck Channel 7. He'll beat more home than beat him but doubt he has the class to take this out.
Chaos: No better than Winchester in his Mackinnon run. And Winchester has the pedigree and has had a more consistent prep.
24. KELINNI 51 Boss/Waller
Captain: While you can't ever right off a Lexus winner completely, I'm not convinced the form there will stack up this time. At $19, well, Lights Of Heaven is at that price, and has much better credentials. No value at all.
Chaos: Waller is a training ninja, so to me this one can't be written off. And is there any greater ninja move than the 30 day break, run, and three day back up?
Let's Fighting Love!!!
SELECTIONS
Captain:
1. Americain
2. Dunaden
3. Red Cadeaux
4. Ethiopia
Boxing those four with Lights Of Heaven and Mourayan. Should be cleaning up big time!
Chaos: My top four are Red Cadeaux - Dunaden - Ethiopia - Fiorente. Obviously worried about Americain and Mt Athos. I could probably add Galileo's Choice to my bets as well.
For a $100 investment I will likely look at
$25 win Red Cadeaux = $212.50
$30 win Dunaden = $240
$15 win Ethiopia = $315
$10/$10 Fiorente = $310/100
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