MELBOURNE CUP 2018
So, Yucatan… For realsies?
PROFESSOR: I’m not sure, but betting is a numbers game, and while I might get $7/$8 for a Yucatan win, to me there is a 25 per cent chance that Yucatan is for real, and we see one of the most dominant cup wins of the last decade. So on that basis, I guess I think Yukes is more real than the general public as I will be betting on it. And barriers are irrelevant to me over two miles. J Mc is the premiere jockey in the country and I trust that between he and Lloyd there will be a plan to mitigate it.
MASTER O: Yucatan is big unders. I've seen a lot of horses run cracking 2400m races. This by no means guarantees that it gets 3200m. A recent example being Jameka. He has a terrible gate (can't fathom why the Professor doesn't see potentially getting posted 4, 5, 6 wide the trip as an issue, as fun as that sounds?!?). And what's more he ran distant lasts in back to back races only a few months ago. So untried at the trip, potentially a wide run/or using up some petrol early and recent epic failures and you're giving me Makybe Diva odds? With the recent history of throwing in the towel, this guy might be as "realsies" as a Tomic/Kyrgios doubles pairing.
BIG OL 3PEAT BOMB: Yucatan’s run and turn of foot is nearly the best I’ve seen! Albeit in G3 company...what else do I like? His electric turn of foot, only stars have it... even the carpark barrier will not stop him, and J Mc goes 1 better than Fiorente on his first try. I can’t fathom how or why anyone has a different snorkel bet.... unless they need Specsavers.....
Australia (trained) is a $3.20 chance to win the cup. Is that good value?
PROFESSOR To take this home, your highest horses in the market are Avilius, Youngstar, Finche, Ventura Storm, Sound Check and Runaway. So no, I don’t believe that this is good value. I’m probably higher on Finche and Youngstar than most, but I could back those two and $40 and $20 respectively so that would be the better play.
MASTER O: I don't think so. It's not the 1970's anymore.
BIGOL 3PEAT BOMB: Avilius reminds me of Almandin....I love a WFA race before the Cup (Fiorente). He gets in ok at weights, can he stay? He gets close to the photo for mine. Stifler’s mum shagger Finche is the next best of the above lot, but in answer to the $3.2 question- no terrible value...
What is the “Sizzler horse?” By which I mean the horse who is only being spruiked by idiots, and whose success or failure could help or hinder the business model of Australia’s premiere steak, seafood and salad restaurant.
PROFESSOR: Pour one out for Bart Cummings – with him and his monobrow taking a dirt nap, the mug punter has to do at least five minutes of research. In past years, we’d get a pedestrian B Cummings Lexus winner into $6. Remember Miss Meliss? Geez. Now I’d say that your complete goon is going to see a couple of 6 length wins by Magic Circle, recognise Corey Brown and do his steak, seafood and salad in a misguided afternoon.
Alternatively, Avilius. In an increasingly European Cup, Avilius is kind of Poland?
MASTER O: Honestly I feel like Yucatan is going to be holding far more money than he should be and his failure would set the casual dining sector back years. And I feel like everyone backing Yucatan will no doubt pour some cash into The Barman as their roughie which I feel is going to have a devastating effect on the sales of "Doubles" tickets at Brisbane Broncos games for season 2019...
BIGOL 3PEAT BOMB: Agree unanimously with the PROF on Magic 6 Length Circle.... on watching his wins I was impressed. But form inspection tells me he is 7, lost to Nakeeta and co., and although we all love an old farts comeback - think Allan Langer smashing the grubs.... I can’t encourage old bald men to get in g bangers....unless there is free musto....On Avilius, well the Prof did not see Almandin coming (unlike yours truly) and I fear he has dropped his dot in a maths model, talking expected gains or opportunity costs of not picking the last 2 Cup winners?,! Go to Sizzler Prof and eat cheese bread o!
What is the horse that’s getting no chatter that you can’t stop talking about?
PROFESSOR: Rostropovich is the obvious one for me. Before the Cox Plate, Rostropovich was close enough to the Cup favourite. After a creditable first up run against Winx, who is above average, we are going to see $50. What did we learn about Rostro in the Cox that would make us abandon ship like that? A couple of things:
· Bred to stay.
· Will appreciate the featherweight after it’s last run at WFA.
· The Cox run pointed to a stayer – remember when a horse running on in the Caulfield Cup was close enough to a guaranteed way to pick your Melbourne Cup horse? Me neither, it hasn’t worked like that since, fuck, Delta Blues?
Master O is going to make the same (reasonable) argument about Marmelo. Hit both.
MASTER O: Yucatan this. Yucatan that. Best Solution and Cliffs great Caulfield Cup runs. Yucatan, Yucatan, Yucatan. Magic Circle’s owner is going to get his kit off when it wins. Yucatan, Lloyd, Yucatan. A Prince Of Arran franks the form! YUCATAN!!!!!!!!!!
And Marmelo, whose 1st up run in Australia last year was good enough to make him Melbourne Cup favourite, first up this year flies under the radar...
That is of course until Lloyd declared it one of the 2 horses he fears. Seriously, fuck you Lloyd, my $15 just dropped a couple of points.
SIR BIG OL 3PEAT BOMB: Actually good call here. I love a good WFA prep run and he was 2 lengths off Avilius so prob gets ahead on relative weights. However Frankel as a stayer? Did he finish through the line well......not really but he boxed on very well after torrid first 800... He has defo missed the handicapper, and he worries me the most (of the light weights)...but his wide draw and ability to overrace costs him....But who do I like here as one who flew under the radar: Avilius (1 Aus horse always finishes in top 3), so I must include....and Youngstar reminds me of Ken the Barbie Doll...rattlin’ home with no hope of ever winning...you’re entitled to run on when u don’t do much...Ace High beats Ken home 5 times on Sunday...
What does your first four look like?
PROFESSOR: Yucatan – Rostrpovich – Marmelo – Youngstar.
MASTER O: Marmelo, Magic Circle, Muntahaa, Best Solution
SIRBIG OL 3PEAT BOMB: Yucatan, Cliffsofmoher, Avilius, Best Solution
What is your actual betting play here? We hear constantly about people who are excellent at the Melbourne Cup, but it’s easier to track this when we call our shots properly
Prof: I’m no fan of multis, so let me get that into the wild first. I remember my third grade teacher at the wonderful Runcorn State School won a mystery tri on the Cup back in the 80s. Since then, I’ve never heard of any success in such tipping. There are 10,000 plus first four combinations, and 250,000 permutations. Just saying. No multi tickets will be purchased by this guy.
I’ll just be backing four horses, on the snorkel...WHERE IS YOUR PENCHANT FOR PLACE BET MR EACH WAY 235.2 % PROF O.
Yucatan (I’m hoping for $7s), Marmelo ($20s), Youngstar ($20s) and Rostropovich (if I am patient $40s?). If I back all of these to win $1,000 I would need to outlay $268 for effective odds of $3.73. I can live with that. Realistically if I fuck off work for the day and work like a day trader monitoring the odds I can probably get those odds closer to $4-$5*. I really like the Rostropovich place (which I may hit to win $1,000 as well). This would dilute my effective odds to $2.71 if one of my horses wins, or Rostro places, but would increase my maximum effective odds to $5.42.
MASTER O: I am just about to join a new betting agency so I will load up on Marmelo with a whopping free bet, have a bit on Magic Circle and then at the last minute I will probably freak out and hit Muntahaa just in case. They are the 3 I really like. For exotics, I do one first 4 a year on the Cup, to me it's like buying a lottery ticket, because you hear about those people who win the lotto....and sometimes win it again....fuck those people.
SIR BIG OL3 PEAT BOMB: Snorkel bet! $150 on the nose Yucatan. $50 f4 as above; with Chestnut Coat best roughie, ‘cause you forgive good horses 1 terrible wide run...beautiful looking horse too...
You haven’t talked about a horse, but you end up backing it tomorrow and sending me 100 text messages saying, “just quietly, my best result now is….”
PROFESSOR: Finche, it was always Finche. Plusses: credible performance off a torrid run in a stupid Geelong Cup. Waller. Cracksman form reference. Purton. Frankel. Used to bend over and spank Avilius all over continental Europe. Ignore my answer to the last question and assume that I now have a statue of Finche in my yard. Negatives: I only have so much money to invest in the mighty Finche.
MASTER O: Not a chance, Master O will be saving that cash for one of his most successful betting ventures...MR8 on Cup Day!
SIR BIGOL 3PEAT BOMB: Chestnut Coat! I love how lightly raced he is and think with a good barrier draw and bowling along with Best Solution next to him...I think you see a much better effort... unless a sprinkler gets turned on overnight!