tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-77435639584579158352024-03-14T17:16:54.492+11:00We'll Have A BowlJBhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17441666338383100642noreply@blogger.comBlogger526125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-76736916819421162282018-11-05T23:47:00.001+11:002018-11-05T23:47:23.286+11:00MELBOURNE CUP 2018
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">MELBOURNE CUP 2018 </span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">So,
Yucatan… For realsies? </span></b></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">PROFESSOR:
I’m not sure, but betting is a numbers game, and while I might get $7/$8 for a
Yucatan win, to me there is a 25 per cent chance that Yucatan is for real, and
we see one of the most dominant cup wins of the last decade. So on that basis,
I guess I think Yukes is more real than the general public as I will be betting
on it. And barriers are irrelevant to me over two miles. J Mc is the premiere
jockey in the country and I trust that between he and Lloyd there will be a
plan to mitigate it.</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">MASTER O:
Yucatan is big unders. I've seen a lot of horses run cracking 2400m races.
This by no means guarantees that it gets 3200m. A recent example being Jameka.
He has a terrible gate (can't fathom why the Professor doesn't see potentially
getting posted 4, 5, 6 wide the trip as an issue, as fun as that sounds?!?).
And what's more he ran distant lasts in back to back races only a few months
ago. So untried at the trip, potentially a wide run/or using up some petrol
early and recent epic failures and you're giving me Makybe Diva odds? With the
recent history of throwing in the towel, this guy might be as
"realsies" as a Tomic/Kyrgios doubles pairing.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">BIG OL
3PEAT BOMB: Yucatan’s run and turn of foot is nearly the best I’ve seen! Albeit
in G3 company...what else do I like? His electric turn of foot, only stars have
it... even the carpark barrier will not stop him, and J Mc goes 1 better than Fiorente
on his first try. I can’t fathom how or why anyone has a different snorkel
bet.... unless they need Specsavers.....</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">Australia
(trained) is a $3.20 chance to win the cup. Is that good value?</span></b></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">PROFESSOR
To take this home, your highest horses in the market are Avilius, Youngstar,
Finche, Ventura Storm, Sound Check and Runaway. So no, I don’t believe that
this is good value. I’m probably higher on Finche and Youngstar than most, but
I could back those two and $40 and $20 respectively so that would be the better
play.</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">MASTER O:
I don't think so. It's not the 1970's anymore.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">BIGOL
3PEAT BOMB: Avilius reminds me of Almandin....I love a WFA race before the Cup
(Fiorente). He gets in ok at weights, can he stay? He gets close to the photo
for mine. Stifler’s mum shagger Finche is the next best of the above lot, but
in answer to the $3.2 question- no terrible value...</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">What is
the “Sizzler horse?” By which I mean the horse who is only being spruiked by
idiots, and whose success or failure could help or hinder the business model of
Australia’s premiere steak, seafood and salad restaurant.</span></b></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">PROFESSOR:
Pour one out for Bart Cummings – with him and his monobrow taking a dirt nap,
the mug punter has to do at least five minutes of research. In past years, we’d
get a pedestrian B Cummings Lexus winner into $6. Remember Miss Meliss? Geez.
Now I’d say that your complete goon is going to see a couple of 6 length wins
by Magic Circle, recognise Corey Brown and do his steak, seafood and salad in a
misguided afternoon. </span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">Alternatively,
Avilius. In an increasingly European Cup, Avilius is kind of Poland?</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">MASTER O:
Honestly I feel like Yucatan is going to be holding far more money than he
should be and his failure would set the casual dining sector back years. And I
feel like everyone backing Yucatan will no doubt pour some cash into The Barman
as their roughie which I feel is going to have a devastating effect on the
sales of "Doubles" tickets at Brisbane Broncos games for season
2019...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">BIGOL
3PEAT BOMB: Agree unanimously with the PROF on Magic 6 Length Circle.... on
watching his wins I was impressed. But form inspection tells me he is 7, lost
to Nakeeta and co., and although we all love an old farts comeback - think
Allan Langer smashing the grubs.... I can’t encourage old bald men to get in g
bangers....unless there is free musto....On Avilius, well the Prof did not see
Almandin coming (unlike yours truly) and I fear he has dropped his dot in a
maths model, talking expected gains or opportunity costs of not picking the
last 2 Cup winners?,! Go to Sizzler Prof and eat cheese bread o!</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">What is
the horse that’s getting no chatter that you can’t stop talking about?</span></b></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">PROFESSOR:
Rostropovich is the obvious one for me. Before the Cox Plate, Rostropovich was
close enough to the Cup favourite. After a creditable first up run against
Winx, who is above average, we are going to see $50. What did we learn about
Rostro in the Cox that would make us abandon ship like that? A couple of
things:</span></i></div>
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</span></span></span><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">Bred to stay.</span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"></span></div>
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</span></span></span><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">Will appreciate the featherweight after it’s last run at WFA.</span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"></span></div>
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</span></span></span><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">The Cox run pointed to a stayer – remember when a horse running on in
the Caulfield Cup was close enough to a guaranteed way to pick your Melbourne
Cup horse? Me neither, it hasn’t worked like that since, fuck, Delta Blues? </span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">Master O is going to make the same (reasonable) argument
about Marmelo. Hit both.</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">MASTER O:
Yucatan this. Yucatan that. Best Solution and Cliffs great Caulfield Cup runs.
Yucatan, Yucatan, Yucatan. Magic Circle’s owner is going to get his kit off
when it wins. Yucatan, Lloyd, Yucatan. A Prince Of Arran franks the form!
YUCATAN!!!!!!!!!!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">And
Marmelo, whose 1st up run in Australia last year was good enough to make him
Melbourne Cup favourite, first up this year flies under the radar...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">That is
of course until Lloyd declared it one of the 2 horses he fears. Seriously, fuck
you Lloyd, my $15 just dropped a couple of points.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">SIR BIG
OL 3PEAT BOMB: Actually good call here. I love a good WFA prep run and he was 2
lengths off Avilius so prob gets ahead on relative weights. However Frankel as
a stayer? Did he finish through the line well......not really but he boxed on
very well after torrid first 800... He has defo missed the handicapper, and he
worries me the most (of the light weights)...but his wide draw and ability to
overrace costs him....But who do I like here as one who flew under the radar:
Avilius (1 Aus horse always finishes in top 3), so I must include....and
Youngstar reminds me of Ken the Barbie Doll...rattlin’ home with no hope of
ever winning...you’re entitled to run on when u don’t do much...Ace High beats
Ken home 5 times on Sunday...</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">What does
your first four look like? </span></b></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">PROFESSOR:
Yucatan – Rostrpovich – Marmelo – Youngstar.</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">MASTER O:
Marmelo, Magic Circle, Muntahaa, Best Solution</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">SIRBIG OL
3PEAT BOMB: Yucatan, Cliffsofmoher, Avilius, Best Solution</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">What is
your actual betting play here? We hear constantly about people who are
excellent at the Melbourne Cup, but it’s easier to track this when we call our
shots properly</span></b></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">Prof: I’m
no fan of multis, so let me get that into the wild first. I remember my third
grade teacher at the wonderful Runcorn State School won a mystery tri on the
Cup back in the 80s. Since then, I’ve never heard of any success in such
tipping. There are 10,000 plus first four combinations, and 250,000 permutations.
Just saying. No multi tickets will be purchased by this guy.</span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">I’ll just
be backing four horses, on the snorkel...WHERE IS YOUR PENCHANT FOR PLACE BET
MR EACH WAY 235.2 % PROF O.</span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">Yucata<i>n
(I’m hoping for $7s), Marmelo ($20s), Youngstar ($20s) and Rostropovich
(if I am patient $40s?). If I back all of these to win $1,000 I would need to
outlay $268 for effective odds of $3.73. I can live with that. Realistically if
I fuck off work for the day and work like a day trader monitoring the odds I
can probably get those odds closer to $4-$5*. I really like the Rostropovich
place (which I may hit to win $1,000 as well). This would dilute my effective
odds to $2.71 if one of my horses wins, or Rostro places, but would increase my
maximum effective odds to $5.42.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">MASTER O:
I am just about to join a new betting agency so I will load up on Marmelo with
a whopping free bet, have a bit on Magic Circle and then at the last minute I
will probably freak out and hit Muntahaa just in case. They are the 3 I really
like. For exotics, I do one first 4 a year on the Cup, to me it's like buying a
lottery ticket, because you hear about those people who win the lotto....and
sometimes win it again....fuck those people.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">SIR BIG
OL3 PEAT BOMB: Snorkel bet! $150 on the nose Yucatan. $50 f4 as
above; with Chestnut Coat best roughie, ‘cause you forgive good horses 1
terrible wide run...beautiful looking horse too...</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">You
haven’t talked about a horse, but you end up backing it tomorrow and sending me
100 text messages saying, “just quietly, my best result now is….”</span></b></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;">PROFESSOR:
Finche, it was always Finche. Plusses: credible performance off a torrid run in
a stupid Geelong Cup. Waller. Cracksman form reference. Purton. Frankel. Used
to bend over and spank Avilius all over continental Europe. Ignore my answer to
the last question and assume that I now have a statue of Finche in my yard.
Negatives: I only have so much money to invest in the mighty Finche. </span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
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Not a chance, Master O will be saving that cash for one of his most successful
betting ventures...MR8 on Cup Day!</span></div>
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BIGOL 3PEAT BOMB: Chestnut Coat! I love how lightly raced he is and think with
a good barrier draw and bowling along with Best Solution next to him...I think you
see a much better effort... unless a sprinkler gets turned on overnight!</span></div>
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<![endif]-->Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-50451145909105167782016-10-31T21:29:00.000+11:002016-10-31T21:33:04.875+11:00WHAB's 2016 MELBOURNE CUP FORM GUIDEYes it's that time of year again...waking up on the couch at 5am blanketed with your form guide and surrounded by empty beer bottles. Waiting for your co-workers to go on lunch so you can sneak in a few race replays and scribble some key notes, only to find them later in the washing machine, now in papier mache form. Having night terrors about a dirty hurdler thieving our Cup. Are you having troubles with the missus because you spend all your free time scouring the net for free bet offers?!? If you have experienced any of the above, you've come to the right place!<br />
<br />
This year we have some new blood on the panel. Big Ol' was
enthusiastic to say the least in his quest to become a WHAB blogger.
Long story short, he offered us a gorilla each for a spot, we probably
would have settled for a 6 pack each truth be told but thanks again Big
Ol'! A horse racing fanatic with a penchant for Paul Gallen jokes and
punting and golf stories about his mates, none of which our readers will
have any idea who they are, we think he'll fit right in!<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4wBV9rO1f5HqZNNtG_nJfFMM97SeCGdN-EwUTPklFvlY7skVP6g0vGUF3svYLbWmujpWivXhfYyaHEe56FYpxmJLQJBWdrSvopFYUXXRR2fp2HqTa96Ekb3ipbfZt_1g1mOVDcsiKyos/s1600/Big+Ol.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4wBV9rO1f5HqZNNtG_nJfFMM97SeCGdN-EwUTPklFvlY7skVP6g0vGUF3svYLbWmujpWivXhfYyaHEe56FYpxmJLQJBWdrSvopFYUXXRR2fp2HqTa96Ekb3ipbfZt_1g1mOVDcsiKyos/s320/Big+Ol.jpg" width="221" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Introducing Big Ol'. Pictured here after Almandin won the Bart Cummings.</b></div>
<br />
<br />
THE PROFESSOR'S FOREWORD<br />
<br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
I have taken a different approach this year, The
only way to make BIG DOLLARS is to talk value so I have just done my
section in terms of whether I think a horse is OVER/UNDER the odds.</div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
To me the standout horse is JAMEKA, and I see it as being considerably over the odds.</div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
The second tier horses that are both in the market, and backable at their current prices are:</div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
CURREN MIROTIC/ALMOONQITH/HEARTBREAK CITY/ALMANDIN</div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
The horses that are overs, and <b>BIG </b>odds are:</div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
OUR IVANHOWE/GALLANTE/GRAND MARSHAL/GREY LION/QEWY. </div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
The horse that I am most on the fence on is BIG ORANGE.</div>
In terms of the horses that I think are
tremendous UNDERS, the two standouts are BONDI BEACH and HARTNELL. These
two horses are currently capturing ~30 per cent of the market, and I
think they are both absolute poison.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>1.</b> BIG ORANGE, Bell/Spencer, (7) 57kg <b>$17</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: This guy on form has a legitimate chance. But I won't back it because there have been 40 million internationals run in the Cup without a lead up run in Australia since Vintage Crop and they have all left empty handed. <br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
Professor: <i>Came here last year, led up at a slow tempo and was swamped late. His
UK form since has been really good. His form ties in really well
through other horses that have run well here (Trip to Paris). I can
maybe make excuses for its run last year as it was in significantly
worse form, coming off a career worst run in the Lonsdale Cup. It’s on
the cusp of receiving some of the Professor’s capital, might just need
to get out to $20s.</i><br />
<br />
<i><u>UNDERS, </u>but I might talk myself into this being OVERS by Tuesday. </i><br />
<br />
Big Ol': On pace type who ran a good race last year and I hear whispers he is
better this year. He will have to be, he had the perfect opportunity to
win last year when they crawled up front; he loves 3200 and I see him in
the top 10...<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>2.</b> OUR IVANHOWE, Freedmans'/Dunn, (6) 57kg <b>$34</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: A few months ago this guy was steamin' to victory in the Doomben Cup. Amazing to think that he has done fuck all since and is equal topweight in the Melbourne Cup! Ha!<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
Professor: <i>Better than it looked in last year’s Cup. Progressing through a
classic Cup prep getting better every start. Not likely but good value
at $51. This is just the kind of horse a few schooners and some early
wins will make me add to my list.</i><br />
<br />
<u>OVERS</u>, best roughie?<br />
<br />
Big Ol': I think he is a good outsider on a bog track; he is a mudder, his father
was a mudder; his mother was a mudder..he was born in slop.....if it
rains its a top 10 at best for Sir Big Ol'.....if not 15-20... <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>3.</b> CURREN MIROTIC, Hirata/Berry, (18) 56.5kg<b> $26</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: For every Delta Blues that's come out to run in the Cup, there's been a half dozen Hokko Braves. To me, this is a Hokko Brave. Maybe even a Tokai Trick.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
Professor:<i> Do you like form around FAME GAME? If you do, I
think you would enjoy the stylings of CURREN MIROTIC. In May this year,
in the 3,200 metre Tenno Sho he just missed behind the very talented
Kitasan Black. Last year in the same race he finished adjacent to Fame
Game. That’s his 3,200 metre caper. It’s good. Every other recent start:
rubbish, and he seems to have been overlooked as a result.</i><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>OVERS</u>, Will see a lot of my capital.<br />
<br />
Big Ol': Tommy Berry locked this ride in a half year ago after the "fastly
run-wink wink Captain" Tenno Sho...it was a good effort for a horse
that requires Alzheimer's cream and a zimmer frame; he is very hard to
catch, but I hear the Japanese want an on pacer type as they are sick of
these dawdle Melbourne Cups where the backmarkers have no chance...he
jumps from 18 which I hear has never had a winner...I think he can run
well, but if he was ever going to win from the front, needed a better
draw...top 7 hope... <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>4.</b> BONDI BEACH, O'Brien/Moore, (5) 56kg <b>$9</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Way too short. No lead up run in Oz. Form looks merely adequate. Since last year's Cup has run in fields of 3,5,6 and 8 runners. There's 24 here, he's going to get bumped and eyeballed and pressured...not to mention Frankie Dettori at some stage making his "winning move". And an Aidan O'Brien/Willams' combination, how will that work? I can't decide whether he will be a late scratching or run the first 6 furlongs faster than the day's sprint race...<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
Professor: <i>Coming through weaker European form lines, and was pretty poor last
year. I can’t find a way to justify the $9, I really can’t. IT DOESN’T
MAKE SENSE. </i><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqkPAHDNoiQQaNJPDlSnzrUH6fywsRlocTSf_s1jgVVPZInk822JlbYxOg2MeF8EMO6oFmD04zWa1YIzi-0h_aMQeBU_1aulqBJiCh-0GE_Tflb6hDiU92FtxMs5PtxFdgw_vMqvqEofM/s1600/chewy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqkPAHDNoiQQaNJPDlSnzrUH6fywsRlocTSf_s1jgVVPZInk822JlbYxOg2MeF8EMO6oFmD04zWa1YIzi-0h_aMQeBU_1aulqBJiCh-0GE_Tflb6hDiU92FtxMs5PtxFdgw_vMqvqEofM/s1600/chewy.jpg" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>"Now think about that for one minute..."</b></div>
<i></i><br />
<i></i><br />
<i></i><br />
<i></i><br />
<u>UNDERS, </u>massive, massive, massive unders.<br />
<br />
Big Ol': Well any horse that J Bird spruiks in a Cup is generally not a
chance...Doriemus was very good Bird, but that is all you've ever had (go Might And Power!). He was only 3 years old last year and with the slow
tempo, I think it was a forgive...draws barrier 5. I think the owners
set him for this a while ago, seems like a good prep, I see him running
in the top 8....no chance he gets my hard earned kish though....his
name reminds me of Sydney and Paul Gallen too much....
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>5.</b> EXOSPHERIC, Freedmans'/Oliver, (13) 56kg <b>$21</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Of the Internationals, this is one I don't mind. Mostly because it had a lead up race in the Caulfield Cup where he was solid. He meets Jameka 1.5kg better here. No form above 2400 to speak of, but Caulfield Cup form always counts for something in my book. He's some value at $21.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Outstayed by Big Orange (himself a staying
risk) over 2,400 metres. Good run in the Caulfield Cup but looked to run
out of puff. Don’t think it gets the journey.</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>UNDERS</u><br />
<br />
Big Ol': He ran well in the Caulfield Cup, he looks like he does a bit wrong in
his races, but obviously potential there, and at least you know he has
travelled well; however, his name is too close to Exosphere and for that I can't have him at all...further, I question 3200m with him.... <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>6. </b>HARTNELL, O'Shea/McDonald, (12) 56kg <b>$5</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: The beauty of Hartnell being $5 favourite in this race is that we can
all get a much better price on everything else. Because Hartnell doesn't
stay a genuine two miles. Going by his two real cracks at it in Oz, he's a
better chance to beat Winx in the 2017 Cox Plate than win the 2016
Melbourne Cup.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>The Poor man’s SO YOU THINK! Two 3,200 metre
runs both poor: doesn’t stay. Don’t get me wrong I would love to own a
poor man’s So You Think, but not on Cup Day (unless it’s running in the
James Boags Premium Stakes). </i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>UNDERS</u>, winner of the So You Think Award for making everything else so backable!<br />
<br />
Big Ol': Towelled up Jameka with a great Turnbull run - that is a race at set
weights and not WFA and I still can't forget his howler Spring last year.
If he settles and doesn't overrace (think Sydney Cup) I think he
wins...but he is a fairy, big strong horse that seems to choke on the
big occasion....the horse to most remind me of Greg Norman or Wade Ormsby and I thank his owners for putting him in the race - so we all get
better odds...I know the Captain agrees..but I think he is still a
player....I think he runs in the top 6. <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>7. </b>WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, Waller/Bowman, (20) 56kg <b>$34</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Thebarman will runwell as he alwaysdoes. I just thinkthat he isnot going aswell as hehas been inpast editions of theCup, at similar oddswith similar formI prefer theMarshal. Big Ol' seemsto think thosetwo are friendsbut I have it ongood authority thatthey hate each other'sguts!<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>You know what you are going to get here. A
good ride from Balls Out Bowman. A moment 400 metres out of thinking
that you are a chance, the realisation that over the last 200 metres he
keeps going but doesn’t have the sprint to match it with the best
stayers. It’s the WSTB life. </i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<i> </i></div>
<u>ABOUT RIGHT </u><br />
<br />
Big Ol': He reminds me of the ultimate club player, a horse of integrity, heart,
commitment, he reminds me of Steve "Beaver" Menzies....The horse is all
ticker, loves 3200 and ran a huge race a few years ago when 3rd and just
behind Red Cadeaux in a great year for the Cup. I see him running over
the line with his pal Grand Marshal, a fave of Champ and Malones...If
he gets a good run, I see this old marvel running home between 10-15.... <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>8.</b> WICKLOW BRAVE, Mullins/Dettori, (24) 56kg <b>$18</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: This is a huge chance because Frankie Dettori doesn't give a flying fuck about anything else when he's riding in a Cup. Took out half the field last year, I see no reason why we won't see a repeat here.<br />
<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>That's right! I took out ten of the fuckers! </b></div>
<br />
I won't back it because it's a hurdler and that's against my religion.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Went down to Big Orange at Goodwood, and then
went out and spanked a good field (including trip to Paris 16 lengths
away in third!) in the Irish St Leger on a track with some more give.
Get the feeling that the hard track won’t suit at all. This is, dare I
say, the exact horse that the Europeans spent years bringing out before
they started to get it. </i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>UNDERS</u><br />
<br />
Big Ol': A very interesting runner and maybe one of the best of the International
brigade. He loves 3200 and beat Order Of St George in the Group 1 St Leger...He
is highly rated and seems to be getting better with age like a good
whiskey. I think his chances come down to his ride from the carpark gate
of 24...Frankie "Lets Take Out Half The Field On Max Dynamite" Dettori
is in the saddle and he does not care who he takes out to get over the
line...I think he runs well and comes in the top 9...am I betting on the
old Irish veteran? Hold my beer while a kiss your woman!!!!!!...O!!<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>9.</b> ALMOONQITH, Hayes-Dabernig/Walker, (19) 54.5kg <b>$21</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Still doesn't have a 'u' after the 'q' which makes it untrustworthy. Was "flashing home" in the Caulfield Cup...but in reality wasn't really
making any ground on Jameka despite Hall popping the cork on some
victory champers over the last 50m. So it was clearly the 2nd best run
there, let's not kid ourselves. Has a win over Grand Marshal and
Thebarman over 2 miles so he is in with some chance. Can be hard to catch
though. But I always like Caulfield Cup form. <br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Very unlucky in last year’s shemozzle: they
walked and he got within 4 lengths from the back. And the Caulfield Cup
run was a good pointer to the 3,200 and the open spaces of Flemington
being a good fit. His four runs over the trip were a midfield run behind Cups also-ran Sex Panther in Dubai (works everytime), a midfield effort
in the farcical 2015 Cup, a sound win over the B-graders (The Offer,
Grand Marshal) at the end of last year’s spring carnival and a midfield
Sydney Cup finish when he got far too far back. It stays, it may be at
its best but it likely needs a heads up ride from Walker. Badly wants a
rock hard track and a cracking tempo. </i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>OVERS,</u> think it gets the tempo and track that it needs<br />
<br />
Big Ol': Well he is a key to this Cup as I have tied his runs in with a lot of the
field- to indirectly compare a few of the big chances (i.e Almandin and Almandin!). Came home like a wet sail in the Caufield Cup and that
always tells me that he is a good chance. The Captain tells me, from the
stewards, that he jarred up in the Bart Cummings and to be weary of him as a form
reference. Big Ol' disagrees on that. I have this one in 10-15th place. I know he
won the Sandown Cup but I query the merit of that....plus the stewards
info of course hey Captain?! I hear the Professor rates Almoonqith as a
big show for the Cup, I get that, the Professor has a keen eye and huge
respect to the dirty Gallen loving cockroach. I was all over him last
year- like a one armed bricklayer in Baghdad, I jumped off his good win
at a price last year and therefore I have to stay off... <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>10.</b> GALLANTE, Hickmott/Shinn, (2) 54.5kg <b>$61</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Before the Moonee Valley Cup I was all over this one. I was convinced the Williamses were up to something. And maybe they still are. Maybe they knew he wouldn't handle the Valley. Maybe it's all part of the Williams' Cup runner process. Maybe they'll slip God a paper bag full of cash and it will piss down rain on Cup day and he'll power through the mud to victory!...***NEWSFLASH*** "Gallante a late scratching for the Cup"...<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>After a very strong first up 2nd in the
Naturalism he ran an absolute shocker in the Mooney Valley Cup. He
demonstrated that he could stay winning the Sydney Cup in April, albeit
at a walk (The runs of the beaten brigade- e.g. Grand Marshal are
probably better pointers to this race). Probably your best chance to
stack them up and give this bunch a hard Prince of Penzancing, so if you
can get 100:1 on Cup day I think you should take some of it. </i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>OVERS,</u> always forgive a good horse a shocker, especially at the Valley.<br />
<br />
Big Ol': Well I multi-ed this horse with The United States and Winx on Cox Plate day and he let me
down. However, he had a tough run with this pink horse pestering him the
whole way round Moonee Valley (like J Bird's basketball defence - sweaty,
rubbish and annoying). I think it's a forgive run, the Captain rates him
highly, I rate the Captain as a horseman highly (less so as a golfer) but I
can't forgive him as I would have won $600 plus from that multi. I see
him surprising a few with a top 11 finish... <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>11.</b> GRAND MARSHAL, Waller/Melham, (9) 54.5kg <b>$34</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Strong finish in the Moonee Valley Cup and peaking at the right time. And I hear Waller has set up a "Frankie" obstacle course and has been putting Melham through his paces. It's still no guarantee that they won't get pole-axed at the 300, but I like this guy enough to take the risk at the price.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Trip proven. Was given no chance in last
year’s Cup, and followed it up with a good performance in the Sandown
Cup. Was the follow horse from the Sydney Cup in April. In very good
form, can win.</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
OVERS<br />
<br />
Big Ol': The Champs horse, a horse of the people, salutes at great odds and has a
huge heart. I have him running with his pal Thebarman, and if it rains I see him surging through the pack for a top 10 finish. Usually I don't
rate a horse who was unplaced the year before in a Cup but he had a
strong excuse, Dettori almost decapitated the Pumper. He wears Delectation's colours, I like that, I would love to see him run well as I
know Champ and Malones will be filthy rich from
thereafter...go Marshal!!!!! <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>12.</b> JAMEKA, Maher/Hall, (3) 54.5kg <b>$7.50</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rN_5UjD-2j4" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Professor: <i>Jameka is on top from my analysis. Won the
Caulfield Cup comfortably, and it is hard to see anything from that race
turning the tables (although there are some juicy odds out there!).
Coming in to the field are some more internationals (of varying quality)
and Hartnell who doesn’t stay the trip. Very well weighted, on trial at
the trip but won the Oaks on a bog as a 3 y.o. so it seems like the
trip should suit. </i><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>OVERS, </u>Best bet.<br />
<br />
Big Ol': What a Caulfield Cup win!!! I knew she would win that but I tried
extracting value with Scottish and that move did not work! Sir Big Ol'
learns from his mistakes and I have put a $50 bonus bet saver on her as I
think she could put in an Ethereal type performance this year -a massive
filly, with a trainer with great hair. Is that enough for me? Yes it
is, top 3 chance and you will be mad to not put a bet on, that is if you
like cash and good hair!!!! <br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>13.</b> HEARTBREAK CITY, Martin/Moreira, (23) 54kg <b>$12</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: <br />
<div class="style7">
V. Do you reject Satan? </div>
<div class="style7">
<b>R.</b> I do. </div>
<div class="style7">
V. And all his works? <br />
<b>R.</b> I do. </div>
<div class="style7">
V. And all his empty promises? <br />
<b>R.</b> I do.</div>
<div class="style7">
V. But mostly, do you reject hurdling?</div>
<div class="style7">
<b>R.</b> I do. Fuck yes I do.</div>
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Definitely stays. I am going to have to
rethink my hurdler disdain when it comes to European horses. This guy
seemingly used a hurdle win over this trip as conditioning, then went
out and absolutely destroyed his opposition in the Ebor which has
traditionally been a pretty good lead-up. Then need I mention: JOAO! Who
was the first jockey on Derby Day to work out that hard against the
grandstand was the place to be? JOAO! If there is going to be a jockey
who steals this tactically, it’s going to be one guy: JOAO! Nobody does
form better than this guy, so if he is here to ride it you know it’s
good! JOAO!</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>OVERS,</u> think you will get more on the day as well! <br />
<br />
Big Ol': The Magic Man seems confident and this old veteran has put in a few good
runs over flats and hurdles. Sir Big Ol' knows only 1 "dirty hurdler"
runs well in the Cup and it's not her. I see her missing the jump (like a
dirty hurdler) and running in the rear for most of the race. I have her
in the back 5 and no chance from the torrid barrier.... <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>14.</b> SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD, Thompson/Spriggs, (14) 54kg <b>$81</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: For those of you who are thinking "Wow, this horse has been knighted, it must be good", bear in mind that "Sir" Big Ol' just personally knighted himself here in this guide during his comments on Our Ivanhowe. Knighthoods should be taken with a grain of salt these days...<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Remember when the Metrop was a great form
reference? Neither do I. I have been slipped enough Sir John Hawkwood by
this guy, never again.</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>ABOUT RIGHT</u><br />
<br />
Big Ol': I like this horse. He won from pillar to post in the Metropolitan and Sir Big Ol' ate steak with blue cheese that night. However, the Metrop is
a horrible Paul Gallen type race and I think Sir John has a slim chance
at best. Needs to turn his form around like Jakkalberry a few years ago
(Big Ol' won well off the place with that one!). I see him as a chance
to finish between 15-20... <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>15.</b> EXCESS KNOWLEDGE Waterhouse-Bott/Duric <span style="font-size: small;">(21) 53.5</span> <b>$67</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Excess cobalt is this guy's only hope.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Don’t be fooled by the finishing margin in
last year’s Cup, led at a ridiculously slow tempo and was still swamped
late. A more genuine pace gives him no chance.</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>ABOUT RIGHT</u><br />
<br />
Big Ol': Ran well last year in the Cup, and again like Big Orange had his chance
to win up front on a slow tempo. I think he was better last year,
however he was ridden from the front and I think he runs better as a drop
in horse. I don't see him leading at any point after the clocktower this
year....15-20 here gents...<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>16. </b>BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE, Bin Suroor/Lane, (1) 52.5kg <b>$41</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Every year Bin Suroor brings a horse that shows no evidence two miles suits. Every fucking year. It's like there is a spot reserved in every Cup field for whichever unseasoned, somehow-qualified runner he likes, even though Godolphin have multiples runners every year. Fuck right off!<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>I always save the horses I give the lowest
number of fucks about until last, and it really shows up in my
*analysis.* This horse recently won at Goodwood, which is something I
hear Big Ol' has for Almandin. Not winning.</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>UNDERS</u><br />
<br />
Big Ol': I respect team Godolphin and admire the Sheiks unnerving dedication to
winning the great Cup. It's great for racing, it's great if you love blue,
but I don't see a Central Park run from her. Damian Lane takes the ride,
and I have seen him put too many howlers on Rising Romance in years gone
to consider this horse a threat. I have her finishing in J Bird's golf
position week in, week out - last.... <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>17.</b> ALMANDIN, Hickmott/McEvoy, (17) 52kg <b>$15</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: If he runs two miles he's a chance. The real story here is with Big Ol'. He has a diamond cutter for this horse:<br />
<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Big Ol' discussing Almandin's Cup campaign at the office</b></div>
<br />
Professor: <i>Two big wins over 2,400 and 2,500 as lead up.
While strong he has beaten nothing, so you are having to take it on
faith a little bit that this guy can run and win in this class. That
said, he has won running away, looks to be a moral to stay the 3,200 and
has no weight. From my estimation, probably the biggest overs in the
race.</i><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>OVERS</u><br />
<br />
Big Ol': Well punters sit down now as Sir Big Ol' has a few wise words to impart.
This horse is a very lightly raced 7 year old, beat Protectionist in
the home of lederhosen the year he won the cup by 4 lengths. The
highest rated 4 yr old to be imported by Lloyd Williams, a man with a
never ending woody for the Cup! Now this horse was in cotton wool for 2
years and I hear has had a lot of TLC and pipe and slippers to get back
to his young self. He put in a huge watch run in the Autumn, and Sir Big Ol'
has noticed how well he seems to finish off his races of late. He has Kerrin McEvoy on his back, maybe the form jockey of the Spring, and I
see him greeting the judge in the top 1 position! I have him on top of
the bell-end, and like the Professor, I just hope he gets a good ride
from barrier 17. He wins gents and its a "Get On" from Sir Big Ol'......<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>18.</b> ASSIGN, Hickmott/Mallyon, (22) 52kg <b>$71</b></span><br />
<br />
<b></b>Captain: Suspect at the trip, the gate puts the line through him.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
Professor: <i>Hasn’t run a bad race since arriving in Australia. In my black book
for the Sandown Cup, because he does everything you want of a Sandown
Cup winner (stays, turns up), but I don’t think this is his day.</i><br />
<br />
Big Ol': Almandin towelled him up a few starts ago and I see that continuing.
However, I see him defying his odds and running in the top 13.....<i> </i><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>19.</b> GREY LION, Cumani/Boss, (16) 52kg <b>$34</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Not seasoned enough, and sifting through his form, not good enough.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Part of the hot tempo at Geelong. Very good
run at Geelong. Had a run in Australia to acclimatise. Hard to back them
all, but probably OVER the odds.</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>OVERS </u><br />
<br />
Big Ol': OTI always runs a good one in the Cup and this horse is no different.
The Geelong Cup looked average on paper but it seems like the form and
clock might stack up. I see him running in the top 6, as long as he
doesn't ogle Francesa Cumani up the straight and decide to head over for
cheese and crackers and a good morning trombone! Further, he has a great
name and Bossy has the Midas Touch in the Cup at times...just not the
greatest judge of future champions......remember when he called Puissance de Lune as the next Makybe Diva? No Bossy no.....<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>20. </b>OCEANOGRAPHER, Appleby/Schofield, (11) 52kg <b>$6.50</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Won the Lexus and predictably the world went mad with Oceanographer Fever. While I think he is an out and out stayer, this is his 3rd run in 13 days here, and that takes enough edge off for me to say that $6.50 is way too short.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>For the mugs. Chased down the thoroughly
average Tom Melbourne to win the Lexus. Relished the red hot tempo and
terrible field to hit everybody’s black book after Geelong. I will make
this point elsewhere but the best two runs out of Geelong were the two
horses that ran it hard up front and fought on best.</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>UNDERS</u>, total mugs bet.<br />
<br />
Big Ol': I hear he came in under 33.5 secs in the Lexus and that is like our
friend Rosberg in the Formula 1! I see him a huge threat.....a minute
after the Lexus win Mr Carpenter chucked 1kg on him as quick as CJ
"Rory" James is to pipe a huge drive and walk briskly ahead to check if
he drove the green on the par 5...and let u know about if for 2 weeks
thereafter. I think he puts in a Malucky day type run, however, if he
hasn't eaten his Weetbix, he could be a bit tired after running 10k in
the last 2 weeks. Comes in 4th-5th...<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>21.</b> SECRET NUMBER, Bin Suroor/Baster, (10) 52kg <b>$34</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Probably not the worst but not nearly good enough for me to give two shits either.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>What’s your secret number? Is it 24<sup>th</sup>?</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<u>DON’T CARE</u></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br />
Big Ol': Tried to get in last year but just missed out like poor old Tom Melbourne this year. He is the star Godolphin runner (from the oil
region) and I have him looking the winner at some stage...but folding in
the last 200m like the Godolphins usually do...Falls apart badly for a
10-15 finish...
</div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>22.</b> PENTATHLON, Wheeler/Du Plessis, (4) 51.5kg <b>$101</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Can he swim? Shoot a gun? Wield an epee? Poofter jump over a dressage course? Because the 3200m cross country is going to really test him.<br />
<br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Beaten by the terrible Rose of Virginia in a down Auckland Cup. Form against the B/C grade stayers moderate. Won’t win. </i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<u>UNDERS</u><i> </i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Big Ol': Probably should not be in the Cup and comes second last....enough said!!
</div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>23.</b> QEWY, Appleby/Williams, (15) 51.5k <b>$31</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: No 'u' after the 'q'. And a dirty hurdler. A wretched combination.<br />
<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Qewy sporting his new blinkers</b></div>
<br />
Professor: <i>Beat Oceanographer in the Geelong Cup over 2400 metres. Given that
this guy called the tune up front (and it was a cracking tempo), I am
inclined to see this as the better horse. I am doubtful that this is
good enough to win, but it has the right historical preparation for a
European horse, and I am inclined to see this as being OVER the odds.</i><br />
<br />
<u>OVERS</u><i> </i><br />
<br />
Big Ol':<i> </i>A very interesting runner and the star "hurdler" of the group. Made the Geelong Cup a true staying test and loves running on the pace. Draws
well and I see him making this year's Cup a truly run affair. I see him
keeping up the same tempo all the way through and holding on for a 6-11
finish. The runner up in the Beaver Menzies Clubman Award and I respect
him immensely....for a dirty hurdler....<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>24.</b> ROSE OF VIRGINIA, Thompson/Hopes', (8) 51kg <b>$201</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: Unlucky in the Lexus when beaten 15.5L, the upside to her is that she'll be nowhere near when Frankie makes his move in the straight.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
Professor: <i>Form generally poor, it’s best run (2<sup>nd</sup> in the Auckland Cup) was a surprise in a down year. Can’t have.</i></div>
<div class="x_MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<u>UNDERS,</u> Can $301 be unders? Yes, yes it can.<br />
<br />
Big Ol': I think this horse should go back to New Zealand and jump dirty
hurdles...no chance and the market has shadow priced her ability spot
on....third last..... <br />
<br />
CAPTAIN'S FINAL SELECTIONS:<br />
<br />
1. Jameka<br />
2. Almoonqith<br />
3. Grand Marshal<br />
4. Oceanographer<br />
<br />
Backing Jameka hard. Boxing these four with Big Orange, Gallante, and Almandin. But mostly, backing Jameka hard!<br />
<br />
PROFESSOR'S FINAL SELECTIONS:<br />
<br />
1. Jameka<br />
2. Almandin<br />
3. Heartbreak City<br />
4. Curren Mirotic<br />
5. Almoonqith <br />
<br />
BIG OL'S FINAL SELECTIONS:<br />
<br />
1. Almandin<br />
2. Jameka<br />
3. Grey Lion<br />
4. Oceanographer<br />
<br />
Good luck all! I'll be counting my stash tomorrow night mwwaaahahahaha!!!<br />
<br />
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Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-26759597753623938772015-11-03T01:56:00.000+11:002015-11-03T10:17:10.236+11:00WHAB 2015 MELBOURNE CUP GUIDEWell folks, it's hard to believe, but Precedence somehow outlived Bart. As we all pay tribute to one JB Cummings in the lead up to this year's Cup, ol' Precedence just couldn't get there for one last crack at the top 10 in the Great Race.<br />
<br />
<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>Precedence after getting towelled up in the Moonee Valley Cup...</b></i></div>
<br />
<br />
No time for shedding tears though, let's get into it!<br />
<br />
Hope you've all managed to get the day off, my missus happens to be "getting her wisdom teeth out" on Tuesday, what a coincidence!<br />
<br />
<br />
1. SNOW SKY (16) 58 Sir Stoute/Moore $51<br />
<br />
Captain: I have never really come to terms with the art of handicapping and I am no closer when I consider this guy hasn't even won a Group 1 and is lumped with 58kg. Topweight in the Melbourne Cup is usually reserved for horses who have won the Cup last year or some other serious race! <br />
<br />
Professor: When I saw this was top weight I thought I was looking at a solid
running of the Launceston Cup. *good* form around *champion* English
stayer Brown Panther, combined with top weight makes this a hard pass
for me.<br />
<br />
2. CRITERION (4) 57.5 Hayes and Dabernig/Walker $13<br />
<br />
Captain: This is really a crystal ball job as to whether he runs two miles. The Derby runs are good without over-exciting me. I am going to leave him out.<br />
<br />
Professor: Gets a champions weight, reflecting the fact that he is a champion.
However, that weight was all earned at shorter trips and I don't think
it reflects his ability over the two miles. I may back it, but it's a
heart bet.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
3. FAME GAME (12) 57 Manukata/Purton $3.50<br />
<br />
Captain: My early Cup tip, hit the line hard in the Caulfield Cup, but has been grossly over-bet by the public since then. He's still my top pick to win but certainly not any value at that price, so I will leave no stone unturned, I will scour the ends of the earth, I will use whatever means necessary, and drum up a gorilla's worth of free bets to plonk on this guy!<br />
<br />
Professor: As strong a cup trial as you will ever see in the Caulfield Cup. Top line Japanese form. Should win.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
4. OUR IVANHOWE (22) 56 Freedmans/Melham $26<br />
<br />
Captain: Can't dismiss after Caulfield Cup run but all form around 2400...<br />
<br />
Professor: Steadily improving and the Caulfield Cup run, while not flashy suggests this could be a good chance at odds. <br />
<br />
5. BIG ORANGE (23) 55.5 Bell/Spencer $51<br />
<br />
Captain: I may have mentioned this last year but I think it's something like the last 1000 horses to run in the Cup without a lead up run in Oz since Vintage Crop (1993) have won zero (0) Melbourne Cups. Maybe this guy will change it all, providing he doesn't get flogged by 14, 25 or 42 lengths as he has done in the past 6 months.<br />
<br />
Professor: Our former co-writer must be hammering this? And if it loves a sauce moat
as much as him it won't be winning. Oh pass the condiment-o's.<br />
<br />
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<br />
6. HARTNELL (17) 55.5 O'Shea/McDonald $34<br />
<br />
Captain: I may have mentioned this last year also but at last count I think it's like 2000+ Godolphin horses who have run in the Cup for zero (0) wins. Also, I would love to hear Greg Carpenter's explanation as to how a horse who carries 52kg in the Sydney Cup, gets flogged by genuine two milers Grand Marshal and TheBarman, finishes no better than 4th in any race since then...gets 55.5kg in the Melbourne Cup.<br />
<br />
Professor: With all the buzz around Hartnell, the question that one should ask is
does Hartnell stay? Evidence to date suggests that a slowly run Sydney Cup, or a Brisbane Cup, or even a Perth Cup would be well in his reach.
Does he stay in this field? Not so much.<br />
<br />
7. HOKKO BRAVE (20) 55.5 Matsunaga/Williams $34<br />
<br />
Captain: A poor man's Fame Game.<br />
<br />
Professor: Obviously the less fancied of the two Japanese runners based on form in
both Japan and in the Caulfield Cup. Wide run at Caulfield but showed
nothing at the business end. And that's where you have to get it done.
The business end. You can hit as many 300 yard drives you want but
what's the point if you can't sink a three footer?<br />
<br />
8. MAX DYNAMITE (2) 55 Mullins/Dettori $14<br />
<br />
Captain: There are things that a man just can't handle in life, and one of those for me will be the day a hurdler wins the Melbourne Cup. I don't give a fuck if it's an elite pastime in the UK, hurdling is only interesting to Aussie punters who have polished off a bottle of vodka for breakfast and think AR1 is all of a sudden a good idea, if you know what I mean Professor?!? Ah the good old days!<br />
<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>Pre-race breakfast at the Professor's circa 2002!</b></i></div>
<br />
Professor: Hurdler, turdler, girdler.<br />
<br />
9. RED CADEAUX (8) 55 Dunlop/Mosse $31<br />
<br />
Captain: Now older than Precedence and with more 2nds than the NSW Origin team, unfortunately the window for winning the Cup has closed on this ol' timer. But he is just always there at the finish over 3200 at Flemington, you could do worse than throwing him into your multiples. <br />
<br />
Professor: In 2019 he'll still stay better than half of these. Why
not take some of the juicy odds that it will finish in the top seven?
Why not?<br />
<br />
10. TRIP TO PARIS (14) 55 Dunlop/Berry $9<br />
<br />
Captain: Obviously will get the trip and obviously not a Winchester one-paced plugger on his lead up run in the Caulfield Cup. His trainer is proven in producing a quality Cup runner. Include in multiples.<br />
<br />
Professor: Its trial run in the Caulfield Cup was impressive but not quite as
impressive as that turned in by Fame Game. In all of my exotics but I
won't be backing it outright.<br />
<br />
11. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (6) 54.5 Waller/Shinn $17<br />
<br />
Captain: Well backand widest inthe Caulfield Cup butran on nicely. Would havewon the Sydney Cup ifnot for a stonking GrandMarshal finish, 3rd inthe Melbourne Cup lastyear andwith Kris Lees having noidea andruining Protectionist with manyruns toomany, andRed Cadeaux now olderthan Precedence, thisguy hasto bein allmultiples.<br />
<br />
Professor: There is a market for a top seven finish and TheBarman is paying $2.70
in that market, and I think that is just about a license to print money.
He's demonstrated the ability to run this trip out (half of this field
won't) he's had another year with Waller, and while I think he will find
a few better he's a special to finish somewhere from third to seventh.<br />
<br />
12. SKY HUNTER (7) 54 Bin Suroor/Buick $41<br />
<br />
Captain: Bin Suroor always brings horses that haven't run the trip, and don't particularly look like they want to run the trip. Melbourne's a lovely place to be this time of year though. Also, not wanting to sound like a broken record, but Godolphin have brought out 10,000 odd horses to run in the Cup now and have won zero (0) Cups.<br />
<br />
Professor: At $41 this actually looks to have some of the more interesting form of
the euro runners. Still, probably not winning, that's 0/497 Godolphin.<br />
<br />
13. THE OFFER (13) 54 Waterhouse/Oliver $51<br />
<br />
Captain: A Country Cups merchant this campaign, his latest outing in the Bendigo Cup he knocked off a last start Pakenham Park BM70 winner. He won a Sydney Cup too...but Brigantin ran 4th in that one. Brigantin.<br />
<br />
Professor: Likely to stay, but would need mandatory flippers and snorkels to be troubling these.<br />
<br />
14. GRAND MARSHAL (15) 53.5 Waller/Cassidy $41<br />
<br />
Captain: Possibly the biggest horse to have ever lived, being ridden by possibly the smallest man to have ever lived...<br />
<br />
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<br />
It's a match made in heaven, and with the Pumper announcing his retirement after the Carnival, there would be nothing more fitting than Grand Marshal being driven to Cup glory along the Grandstand rail, Pumper's favourite place to be. Clackety Clack. Ring A Ding Ding.<br />
<br />
Professor: Silly silly price available for in form Sydney Cup winner. Probably won't win, but double figure place odds seem generous. <br />
<br />
15. PREFERMENT (11) 53.5 Waller/Bowman $10<br />
<br />
Captain: Form is great outside of the completely unsuitable Cox Plate... <br />
<br />
Professor: Best of the Aussies by a good margin. 2,500 metres was no problem
as a developing three year old. Form this campaign has been impeccable.
Clear second pick for me.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
16. QUEST FOR MORE (21) 53.5 Charlton/Lane $126<br />
<br />
Captain: His run in the Geelong Cup does not augur well for a few of these, including the dirty hurdler. And with Lane on board, I am going to suggest the Quest For More lies somewhere a long fucking way away from Flemington...<br />
<br />
Professor: Form around Trip To Paris but flopped at Geelong... Hard pass.<br />
<br />
17. ALMOONQITH (10) 53 Hayes and Dabernig/Dunn $14<br />
<br />
Captain: I never trust something that doesn't have a 'u' after a 'q', Qantas for example. More importantly, I also don't trust anything in a Melbourne Cup that has been done by Brown Panther over 2 miles to the tune of 7 lengths and is paying $15.<br />
<br />
Professor: If you like The United States, and I do, you should like this one as
well. Ran on fiercely behind the States at Caulfield and then
convincingly won the Geelong Cup. $15s a little skinny but a very good
chance,.<br />
<br />
18. KINGFISHER (9) 53 Sissy O'Brien/O'Donoghue $41<br />
<br />
Captain: I am going to suggest that if you back a horse in the Melbourne Cup that has been beaten by 16L and 43 L in it's lead ups, hasn't had a lead up run Downunder, and is trained by Sissy O'Brien, then you are off you're fucking trolley.<br />
<br />
Professor: The newest arrival from the Lloyd Williams conveyor belt of stayers. Form okay, but sight unseen it's a hard pass from me.<br />
<br />
19. PRINCE OF PENZANCE (1) 53 Weir/Payne $81<br />
<br />
Captain: Couldn't overcome the might of The United States at the Valley, not the worst but won't be having it. <br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Professor: The ease with which The United States hunted this down over the shorter
trip suggests it will find at least one far better. That said, it likely
will stay, and a top seven finish is a decent bet.<br />
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
20. BONDI BEACH (18) 52.5 Sissy O'Brien/Prebble $21<br />
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
Captain: There are things I look for in a Melbourne Cup horse and this thing has none of them circa 2015. Maybe next year if Sissy O'Brien is replaced by Hickmott. Not wanting to sound like a broken record but there have been some 30 million Internationals since Vintage Crop without a lead up in Aus combining for a total of zero (0, zilch, nada, nil, sweet fuck all) Cup wins. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Professor: This one will start far too short tomorrow. Average UK form and then you
have Sneaky Lloyd Williams talking it up which means: hit The United
States.<br />
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
21. SERTORIUS (5) 52.5 Edwards/Newitt $Write Your Own Ticket<br />
<br />
Captain: Ah for fuck's sake, it's 11:37pm on Cup Eve, the punters are sweating on us publishing this and I'm supposed to deal Sertorius right now?!?<br />
<br />
Professor: At his best, two years ago I'd fancy this to finish in the top half of the field at best.<br />
<br />
22. THE UNITED STATES (3) 52.5 Hickmott/Moreira $20<br />
<br />
Captain: Ask anyone from the U S of A and they'll tell you this guy is gonna win the Cup for sure!<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MGQaH3-LK54" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Professor: Best roughie in the field. Was really impressive gobbling up Prince Of
Penzance over 2,500 metres last start and they gapped the rest. Gives
the impression that the track and distance may suit as well. I'll be
including this in all of my multis.</div>
<br />
23. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (24) 51 Waterhouse/McEvoy $34<br />
<br />
Captain: Only in the field because Terry Bailey has never had the balls to uphold a perfectly reasonable protest in a feature race ever. Zanteco's connections are reportedly in talks with Dan Nikolic...<br />
<br />
Professor: Winners of the Lexus/Saab/Lavazza/Steggles always start unders...
Sometimes the race unearths a Shocking. Most of the time it finds Big Pat.<br />
<br />
24. GUST OF WIND (19) 51 Sargent/Schofield $34<br />
<br />
Captain: If I knew for certain she ran two miles then she'd be my top pick here. Want to know who the last horse to beat Winx was?!?<br />
<br />
Professor: Hard to see any reason why an each way ticket would hurt here. Every run
leading in has suggested that 3,200 at Flemington would be perfect.<br />
<br />
<div>
CAPTAIN'S SELECTIONS:<br />
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
1. Fame Game</div>
<div>
2. Grand Marshal</div>
<div>
3. Who Shot TheBarman</div>
<div>
4. Trip To Paris</div>
<div>
5. Gust Of Wind </div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
The only others that I will consider for multis are The United States and Preferment.<br />
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
PROFESSOR'S FINAL THOUGHTS<br />
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
Win bets (three or four out of)</div>
<div>
Fame Game, Preferment, Gust Of Wind, The United States, Almoonqith.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
First four (boxed)</div>
<div>
2,3,9,10,14,15,17,22,24<br />
<br />
Some final food for thought from the great man:<br />
<br />
<i><b>“You had a tear in your eye,” remarked a racing scribe to Bart
Cummings, after the Cummings trained Saintly had just won the Melbourne
Cup.</b></i><br />
<br />
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<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b> “Yeah, I didn’t have enough on it”</b></i></div>
</div>
Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-47787550718501680502014-11-04T00:35:00.001+11:002014-11-04T00:35:41.480+11:00WHAB MELBOURNE CUP GUIDE 2014!It's been a while, but back by popular demand (at least 3 people asked us!), WHAB is back to give you the lowdown on the 2014 Melbourne Cup. <br />
<br />
Ahhh The Cup. The form. The betting. The booze. The women.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/IPRtfniFapk" width="420"></iframe> <br />
<br />
Here's your 2014 field for the great race....<br />
<br />
<b>1. ADMIRE RAKTI (8) 58.5 Umeda/Purton </b><br />
<br />
Captain: Allegedly only the 28th best stayer in Japan, this bastard unleashed a stonking Caulfield Cup finish which cost me a big win. And that's racing. But then the connections can't even string a sentence of English together in the post race celebrations. Not even a heavily accented "You fucking little ripper!". Goes up half a kilo on that barnstorming effort which seems almost generous, but his best form does appear to be around 2400m. Also worth considering some of the great horses who haven't been able to win mired down with such a big weight. A chance but I am leaving him out, there are likely better placed horses here over two miles. Ah so.<br />
<br />
Professor: I would think that the 58.5 kilos will be the end of the Admire Rakti tilt over the 3,200 metres. At $6 I will quite happily
watch it go around. <br />
<br />
<b>2. CAVALRYMAN (3) 57 Bin Suroor/Williams</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Ran a creditable 12th (from 22nd) in the ghoulish 2012 Cup where they had their walking canes out in front. Current form is good and will get the trip. I am leaving him out because I am a betting man. Godolphin have never won the Cup despite having a thousand starters. The last thousand horses without a lead up run in Australia have won zero (0) Cups. And no 9 year old has ever won it. So $21 doesn't excite. <br />
<br />
Professor: Not even close to the best $21 shot in this year's Cup.<br />
<br />
<b>3. FAWKNER (9) 57 Hickmott/Hall</b><br />
<br />
Captain: It's no secret that this is my favourite horse, and, bias aside, while he is more up in the weights than I'd like I think he's still a big chance. Comes off a great Cox Plate run as did Fiorente last year. There seems to be a perception that he doesn't genuinely stay but he has had two runs of 2400m+; an impressive win in the 2013 Caulfield Cup, and a stonking 24th-6th finish when given a barrier trial by the Williams camp in last year's Melbourne Cup. I think the Williams' are up to something. Like Wes Mantooth. Go the Fawk!!!!!<br />
<br />
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<br />
Professor: It's not clear why he's up 1.5 kilos from last years run...While you only get 0.5 kilos for a caulfield cup... That said he's got
to be close to the top pick in this year's Cup. <br />
<br />
<b>4. RED CADEAUX (15) 57 Dunlop/Mosse</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Obviously loves this race but recent form doesn't get me excited about the $17...especially when past editions of him in good form could still could only run 2nd...<br />
<br />
Professor: Finished alongside Admire Rakti in this years Tenno Sho. Has a
1.5 kilo swing over Rakti, and is clearly a big fan of this race. If
you're going to back Rakti, you'd have to back this guy at triple the
price, right? <br />
<br />
<b>5. PROTECTIONIST (11) 56.5 Wohler/Moore</b><br />
<br />
Captain: I have a lot of respect for this guy, his run in the Herbert Power points to a strong performance here. But this is where you have to factor in absolutely everything. And while I think he can win this race, I don't think his jockey can. He doesn't get the Melbourne Cup for mine. Flashing home late from no man's land on Mount Athos and Dandino...and while the horse was brilliant, did anyone actually think his ride on Adelaide was any good?!? I hereby anoint thee "The English Pumper"! Ring a ding ding!<br />
<br />
Professor: Great run in the Herbert Power, and is actually better
weighted than the one that the handicapper "missed" in Signoff. That
said, it's not $6 material to me.<br />
<br />
<b>6. SEA MOON Scratched</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Heard that he was about to cop a huge spray from WHAB and clapped on a fever. Wise move Sea Moon!<br />
<br />
Professor: Shifty Lloyd Braun strikes again. Last minute Fawkner scratching coming.<br />
<br />
<b>7. SEISMOS (1) 56 Botti/Newitt</b><br />
<br />
Captain: If he only plugs home after getting buried away from gate 1 to finish in the 2nd half of the field, as I'm predicting, we know it won't be Newitt's fault. He'll belt the shit out of it... <br />
<br />
Professor: I decided I couldn't be fucked with Seismos. <br />
<br />
<b>8. JUNOOB (7) 55.5 Waller/Bowman</b><br />
<br />
Captain: In good form, the Caulfield Cup run was pretty good, and the Professor has a boner for him. I still have a query on him at 3200m and am going to leave him out. But never mind me, what do you think Professor?!?<br />
<br />
Professor: Run of the race in the Caulfield Cup for this race. Got back,
got lost on the corner, and then cracked home to only go down by 2.3
lengths. It's the kind of performance that justifies a much shorter
quote than $26! Or maybe you'd rather be on one of the Godolphin runners
at that price..<br />
<br />
<b>9. ROYAL DIAMOND (6) 55.5 Murtagh/Arnold</b><br />
<br />
Captain: When he finished 12.5 lengths behind a horse who was
beaten 7.5 lengths in last year's Cup, connections understandably
scrambled to book flights and accommodation...<br />
<br />
Professor: This years short priced favourite for the Sandmason lifetime
achievement award for flying over here for no good reason! <br />
<br />
<table class="rtable1" style="width: 100%px;"><tbody>
<tr class="rtrow11"><td nowrap="nowrap"><div class="HorseSmlText">
SANDMASON: 41.5L </div>
</td><td class="tdleft" nowrap="nowrap"><div class="HorseSmlText">
23th of 23</div>
</td><td class="tdleft" colspan="2" nowrap="nowrap"><div class="HorseSmlText">
5 Nov 2002</div>
</td><td class="tdleft" colspan="5"><div class="HorseSmlText">
FLEMINGTON <img src="http://horseform.racingandsports.com.au/images/RaceDirection-AClock.jpg" /> R7 <b>TOOHEYS NEW - MELBOURNE CUP (G1) OPEN</b> </div>
</td><td nowrap="nowrap"><div class="HorseSmlText">
3200m </div>
</td><td nowrap="nowrap"><div class="HorseSmlText">
G</div>
</td><td colspan="1" nowrap="nowrap"><div class="HorseSmlText">
35.53 / 3:23.77 </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td class="tdleft">10 days</td><td class="tdleft" colspan="3"><a class="normlink" href="http://horseform.racingandsports.com.au/viewJockey.asp?id=3FD0E0716A0298D14987" target="_top">STEVE ARNOLD</a> (12)</td><td nowrap="nowrap">55.5/55.5</td><td nowrap="nowrap"><b>$3,675,000 </b></td><td nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td colspan="2" width="300"><table class="rtable1" style="width: 100%px;"></table>
</td><td colspan="2" nowrap="nowrap"><br /></td><td nowrap="nowrap"> </td></tr>
<tr><td align="left" colspan="12"> </td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="12"><b></b><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>10. GATEWOOD (22) 55 Gosden/Buick</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Never run beyond 2500m in 25 starts despite doing most of his racing in Europe. You shouldn't have to ask yourself why. Gate 22 might help him see it out though.<br />
<br />
Professor: This years Lloyd Williams award for quantity over quality
goes to smarmy Simon O'Donnell who along with the OTI team have four
horses that at the time of writing are all paying $71. Gatewood may be
the best of them because he will likely stay a bit.<br />
<br />
<b>11. MUTUAL REGARD (12) 55 Murtagh/Oliver</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Looks like another UK plodder to me, we don't need a lead up run downunder, we'll plod our way to victory. Yet to race in a group race. $11 is great value, snap that shit up...<br />
<br />
Professor: If any horse was going to be the first to win the Melbourne Cup without a
lead up run in Australia, it's this guy. But at $11 would you bet
against those kind of stats?<br />
<br />
<b>12. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (13) 55 Waller/Boss</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Whilehe'll probably beathome more than will beathim, ultimately, hejust doesn'thave the classhere and yethe's $17. <br />
<br />
Professor: $17 just seems all wrong. Junoob and Araldo put in far better Cup trials
than this guy and are paying a lot more. Auckland Cup winners haven't
fared well in the past, which could be randomness or it could reflect
the fact that the Auckland Cup is on par with Lavazza Long Black as a
form race.<br />
<br />
<b>13. WILLING FOE (17) 55 Bin Suroor/McDonald</b><br />
<br />
Captain: I'm going through a lot of form here, and we're trying to get this published, and I have to brutally honest at this point, this thing is fucking no chance. That $21 ticket could double as toilet paper. <br />
<br />
Professor: Apparently super punter Sean Bartholomew has sought this one
out. I double checked it to see what I'd missed. Still looking.<br />
<br />
<b>14. MY AMBIVALENT (4) 54.5 Varian/Atzeni </b><br />
<br />
Captain: One start beyond 2400 was sound. Facing acid test as a stayer here. 1st up at 3200m. Big call but admire the confidence! <br />
<br />
Professor: I have mixed feelings about this one.<br />
<br />
<b>15. PRECEDENCE (20) 54.5 Monobrow & Son/Rodd</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Now even older than Bart, he'll run accordingly on Tuesday.<br />
<br />
Professor: I wonder if Precedence has grown a cracking monobrow! <br />
<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>Precedence after trackwork on Cup eve...</b></i></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>16. BRAMBLES (21) 54 Moody/Nolen</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Ran a great Caulfield Cup, then an ordinary Mackinnon with some excuses. I just think he's had enough.<br />
<br />
Professor: OTI throwing another $71 shot in. Probably doesn't get the trip. Maybe it's their equivalent of Seville. <br />
<br />
<b>17. MR O'CEIRIN (19) 54 Maher/C Schofield</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Shocked when I saw this one in the field but on closer analysis is in great form and has had a perfect prep for this. Looks like he'll run two miles without cracking a sweat. <br />
<br />
Professor: Mr O will likely beat a few home. <br />
<br />
<b>18. AU REVOIR (23) 53.5 Fabre/G Schofield</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Will be bid "Au Revoir" at around the 800m. <br />
<br />
Professor: OTI throwing its version of Masked Marvel against the wall. Pass.<br />
<br />
<b>19. LIDARI (10) 53.5 Moody/Melham</b><br />
<br />
Captain: I doubted him over the 2400 of the Caulfield Cup and while he was solid there, I don't believe he genuinely stays. <br />
<br />
Professor: This run of OTI whackers has me running out of steam. <br />
<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>In 30 years it will be Glenn Maxwell with 5 Cup runners for The Big Show Racing Syndicate...</b></i></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>20. OPINION (14) 53.5 Waller/Angland </b><br />
<br />
Captain: 2nd in the Sydney Cup, but if you take The Offer out that race, it was pure ghoul. Butchered by Purton last week but in all seriousness, Prince Of Penzance would be struggling for a top 12 here... <br />
<br />
Professor: I literally am without an opinion here. $61 seems I don't know... Fair?<br />
<br />
<b>21. ARALDO (24) 53 Moroney/Dunn</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Last two runs have been fantastic, charging home from last in the Metrop and last in the Caulfield Cup for a 3rd and 5th respectively. The gate is awful but I expect him to be coming home again to juice up my first four...<br />
<br />
Professor: Weaved through the field at the death of the Caulfield Cup.
You'd have to think another 800 metres plus Flemington will help.<br />
<br />
<b>22. LUCIA VALENTINA (2) 53 Lees/McEvoy</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Ran a super Caulfield Cup, was wider and deeper than Admire Rakti and stormed home. Right in this. <br />
<br />
Professor: Had to get too far back in the Caulfield Cup and really ran
well considering. It's hard to knock based on that. Top pick, and the
best value for me. Hopefully doesn't give them too much start this time.<br />
<br />
<b>23. UNCHAIN MY HEART (5) 51.5 Hayes & Dabernig/Yendall</b><br />
<br />
Captain: Is the Andrew Ramsden Stakes a qualifying race for the Cup?!? If so, it fucking shouldn't be! That's all this C-grade hacker has ever won. Richard Freedman said that this fella should leave on Monday if he's going to win the Cup. I think he should have left in early September. Even then it would have been tight...<br />
<br />
Professor: Apparently it's too easy for the foreign horses to get in to
the Cup, and then we throw this one in to fly the flag for Australia!
Spare me. <br />
<br />
<b>24. SIGNOFF (16) 51 Weir/Moreira</b> <br />
<br />
Captain: The one to beat. Trained to perfection. Weighted to perfection. And with Joao fever sweeping the country, likely to be ridden to perfection. If he backs up/stays, he wins. Everything points to that for me. <br />
<br />
Professor: No weight, super jockey Joao Moreira, a fantastic run in the
Lexus.. What's not to like? Most years, I gravitate to Lexus winners,
and most years it costs me. Let's do it again! <br />
<br />
<b>CAPTAIN'S FINAL SELECTIONS</b><br />
<br />
Head:<br />
<br />
1. Signoff<br />
2. Fawkner<br />
3. Lucia Valentina<br />
4. Araldo<br />
<br />
Heart:<br />
<br />
1. Fawkner<br />
2. Signoff<br />
3. Lucia Valentina<br />
4. Araldo<br />
<br />
Take your pick. These internationals are hugely over rated this year for mine, my blowout result will be Protectionist.<br />
<br />
<b>PROFESSOR'S FINAL SELECTIONS:</b><br />
<br />
1. Lucia Valentina<br />
2. Junoob <br />
3. Fawkner<br />
4. Signoff<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
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<br />
You're going to get this song stuck in your head for weeks! <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/09oUUhkSxbQ" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
* JESUS SAVES...<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/iPqJbQx6gxQ" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Yeah bring it on Spain, Netherlands and Chile! Hahaha! <br />
<br />
* THE CAPTAIN'S SPRING CARNIVAL MASTERCLASS<br />
<br />
I don't want to go on about it too much, it's not my style. But, Caulfield Cup winner...check. Cox Plate winner...check. Melbourne Cup winner...check. And some. And you're welcome. Oaks winner...check. Emirates winner...check. But mostly, and I had tipped him to anyone who would care to listen since March:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/DKanuV8U6NY" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
* ADAM SCOTT WINS THE MASTERS!<br />
<br />
My local driving range packed out for the following month!<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/qcHqtHCDuyw" width="420"></iframe> <br />
<br />
* PREMIERS 2013!<br />
<br />
After three previous NRL Grand Final trips ended it tears, finally, the Year Of The Mighty Roosters! And now, the magical, glorious moment when I knew victory was ours!<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/_2GMML_aO3A" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
* MITCHELL JOHNSON'S MO' RETURNS THE ASHES!<br />
<br />
Lost without a mo' for years, bowling pies, being picked on by the Barmy Army, bowling wide filth, spats between Mum and Mrs, getting carted by tailenders, injuries, but mostly bowling just absolutely fucking awful........then enter the Mo'.......and Pommy batsmen start shitting their pants all over the place! Two Man of the Match awards, a certain Player of the Series Award...And the Urn returns! On my Birthday! Best Birthday present ever!<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Mdk6x8NUev4" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Es8Lp6R8hkY" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Happy New Year all! Hope 2014 is somewhere near as good as 2013!<br />
<br />Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-60912048242372696762013-11-05T09:44:00.001+11:002013-11-05T09:52:47.004+11:00MELBOURNE CUP 2013 PREVIEWWHAB is back to once again preview the time honored Melbourne Cup. Here we provide all the answers to the questions you're asking, but mostly, answers to the questions you didn't ask. Joining me will be the Professor when he recovers from Derby Day:<br />
<br />
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<br />
The 2013 Cup field is made up entirely of internationals, imports and horses owned by the Williams'. Make of that what you will, here's our take on the big one...<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">1. DUNADEN (1) 58.5 Spencer/Delzangles $41</span></b><br />
<br />
Captain: I backed him in 2011 when he saluted and again last year where he was undone by the monstrosity that was a slowly run Melbourne Cup. Given that all of these Group 1's lately have been dawdling affairs, that may be against him. Gate 1 is also against him given his racing pattern. And this Cup field is deep so he'll have his work cut out for him with the 58.5. So there are a few cons about him but the $41 on offer is just batshit crazy for a horse of his calibre, given there is nothing wrong with his form. Include in multiples and at that price you can have a small win outlay on him and cover off that barnstorming finish he can produce.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Professor: Thanks for all the cash old timer! It was only a year ago when this guy came
from the clouds to win the Caulfield Cup. He absolutely loves it out here, so
maybe his happy hunting ground is what he needs to turn in a good run.</span></span></span> <br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">2. GREEN MOON (10) 57.5 Prebble/Hickmott $31</span></b><br />
<br />
Captain: A similar story here to Dunaden here, he is way over the odds. And if you're thinking that he's up in weight and his form is not as good as last year, well that's called flying under the radar in the Williams' world and that is the scenario where they'll pull your pants down. Can be handy again and if it's another walk in front then he'll be right in the finish. Include in multiples and have a saver on him at $31.<br />
<br />
Professor: <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">I believe I used this
very space last year to tell you all that this was one overrated conveyance.
I've then spent the last 12 months trying to justify it as a slowly run race
(although faster than the 2011 edition). It's going as well as last year, when
it apparently won, but the three extra kilos will likely act as a big anchor.</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">3. RED CADEAUX (23) 56.5 Mosse/Dunlop $61</span></b><br />
<br />
Captain: His form this time in is just a bit too up and down for me. Worth a thought for multiples, certainly not the worst here and any rain would help his chances but I will be leaving him out.<br />
<br />
Professor: <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Too old, and carrying
too much weight. Just like me! Go Professor Cadeaux!</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">4. SEA MOON (7) 56.5 Arnold/Hickmott $15</span></b><br />
<br />
Captain: I really like this one but have to leave him out. I would have had a piece of him if he was a bit further down in the weights/paying more. You can't back them all though.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor:<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"> My first borderline
horse. I have about 8 of these horses in this field, where the starting price
will determine if they end up seeing any of my cash, about $20 to one being the
cutoff. Form perfect, the only knock being that I thought about 55kgs was fair
and it ends up with 56.5.</span></span> </span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>5. BROWN PANTHER (6) 55 Kingscote/Dascombe $19</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: He's made from real pieces of panther, so you know he's good. I liked this guy in early markets but he's now a bit short for me. Especially when the 66 internationals since Vintage Crop to come here without a lead up run in the country have won 0 Melbourne Cups between them. Have to pass. Especially when Sex Panther smells like Bigfoot's Dick...</span><br />
<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">It's made from real
pieces of Panther, so you know it's good. I've got it as an okay, but not great
international. It's the kind of horse that 40 to one could inspire, but the
current quote appears skinny.</span></span> </span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>6. FIORENTE (5) 55 Oliver/Waterhouse $8</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: What I am ultimately looking for in a Cup horse is one that ticks all the boxes. This is that horse. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">It feels like the
Obvious. It will have needed to improve from last year, and it probably has. My
knock is just how well it continues to run over short distances. Is it that
good, or has a year with Gai turned it into yet another Waterhouse middle
distance horse? I'll probably be in its corner tomorrow but that has been my
lingering doubt.</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">7. FORETELLER (15) 55 Newitt/Waller $31</span></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: I am a big Foreteller fan. But backing him in a Melbourne Cup with 55 doesn't seem ideal. That said, the upside of him this campaign is that Newitt has taken over the reins from Cassidy who has butchered the horse on numerous occasions. And Newitt is fast becoming my favourite jockey with his expletive-filled, past-the-post celebratory rants when he punches (and I mean that literally) one home...so I will throw something small on him in case of that scenario...</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">I visualised a horse
wearing green with a big yellow star winning this race. It was Moriarty, who
for some ungodly reason did not run here after turning in the best cup trial of
the season in the Caulfield Cup.</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">8. DANDINO (4) 54.5 Moore/Botti $13</span></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: People got hard after his Caulfield Cup run. And it was a really nice finish, but then he came into near favouritism, then Flemington played rubbish leader-bias on Derby Day and then you see the replay of Fawkner in the same race and you conclude that he was every bit as good that day. Can win but will need a few favours... </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"> I am betting for
value in this year's Cup, and I see none here. The Caulfield Cup run, to be
fair much of his body of work makes him quite backable, but he is more of a $20
proposition to me.</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">9. ETHIOPIA (14) 54.5 McLeod/Carey $71</span></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: Ran home pretty well in the Lexus on Saturday but this will be his 5th run in this prep and you are tempting fate here backing him...a leg will probably fall off at the 1000, an ass cheek will flop out at the 800, at the 600 he will have heart murmurs and by the 400 there will be the carcass of an ex-AJC Derby winner... </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">At Derby Day this
horse looked about ten times bigger than everything else in the Lexus. I threw
a drunken fiver on and he ran well... Two thoughts here. One, the Derby where
this horse nosed out Polish Knight is looking like the worst form race ever.
Not sure who ran third (if only there was a way to find out)! Second, I really
don't know what the value is of the mounting yard special. Ethiopia probably
looked like a superstar when it got beaten by 10 lengths in the Caulfield Cup.</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">10. FAWKNER (8) 54.5 Hall/Hickmott $16</span></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: I backed him in the Caulfield Cup and can see absolutely no reason not to back him again. The Williams' best chance and best local hope, I will even entertain some total bogan "Aussie, Aussie, Aussie" if he salutes!</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Can win if he stays. I'm on at $20s or better.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">11. MOURAYAN (19) 54.5 Avdulla/Hickmott $126</span></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: Given his current form, it will be harder for him to win the Cup than to get a round of drinks at Flemington. Nigh on fucking impossible. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Beat Norsqui by
almost a length in the Sydney Cup. Then primed for this with an unlucky 8
length run behind Side Glance in the Mackinnon. Comes right down in grade from that and should
win easily. Primed.</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>12. SEVILLE (9) 54.5 J. Bowman/Hickmott $16</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: For mine, this is the Williams' runner who has been blown out of proportion here. In my opinion he is way to short, I would go as far as to say that he is a B-Grade stayer and you want to offer me just $16? And every "expert" and his dog has tipped him? Cut the corner in the Metrop and beat home a horse that ran last in the Caulfield Cup, another that ran last in the Moonee Valley Cup, and another that was 6th in the Lexus against Ruscello...who is $71 here. I've been reading form since the day I turned 18. I don't get it! </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Not one of mine, but
the cup, it's so hard this year! That's what she said...</span></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">13. SUPER COOL (13) 54.5 Brown/Kavanagh $41</span></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: Considering this fella as a roughie as I am convinced he has been set for this race. Also considering him as an omen bet after a Friday the 13th day out with a couple of mates at Brookwater Golf Course which I'd prefer not to talk about... </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Even at the top of
its game, this one was a risk at the trip. Not at the top of its game.</span></span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>14. MASKED MARVEL (2) 54 Rodd/Hickmott $34</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: Rodd said after the Cox Plate "good for two miles"...it's all in the delivery, and it sounded a bit tongue-in-cheek to me. Like he knew that it was a poor run and he was no chance here...I think there are better roughies. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Professor: My choice of roughie. The word on the street is
that was Lloyd's top runner. Breeding, off the charts. UK form, impeccable. All
runs outside of Mooney Valley building to this. I've always treated form at Mooney Valley with a big grain of salt. It's like if they played the Australian Open golf at Royal Marrickville. Would you read much into it if Tiger Woods
missed the cut, and Peter "Loins" Lonard, fresh from a decade on the pro-am
circuit won by ten shots?</span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoEziOZTWLMo1M2-xEfw2mPO6VQCcIU4J0q4N-Onkd0f-lLOM1P_oDkY8_IAz7O_Q6f9K78IIomoN-ASuT38WcIxVJrx9bwiA18xgmRtQU39c_wEGtyVcCZ63YX2NDANru02UL8GEEwBU/s1600/lon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoEziOZTWLMo1M2-xEfw2mPO6VQCcIU4J0q4N-Onkd0f-lLOM1P_oDkY8_IAz7O_Q6f9K78IIomoN-ASuT38WcIxVJrx9bwiA18xgmRtQU39c_wEGtyVcCZ63YX2NDANru02UL8GEEwBU/s1600/lon.jpg" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>Not in my backyard Tiger!</b></i></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>15. MOUNT ATHOS (22) 54 Williams/Cumani $10</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: The best of the backmarkers last year but not convinced it is going as well as last year...and the $10 does nothing to help convince me...</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">I was about 1 metre
away from Miss Cumani at Derby Day on the weekend and if anything, the TV does
her no justice. She could climb my Mount Athos if you catch my drift. Call me.</span></span></span> <br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">16. ROYAL EMPIRE (11) 54 McEvoy/Bin Suroor $20</span></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: Have yet to see a Sheikh horse win this. Happy to leave it out. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"> Probably the best
credentialed international. That said, fuck Godolphin. This would be like
backing United to win the Premier League. Often a smart play, but leaves the
subtle taste of balls.</span> </span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">17. VOLEUSE DE COEURS (21) 54 McDonald/Moroney $18</span></b> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: That cranky ol' bastard Dermot Weld wasn't going to bring her here this year. Thought she was a better play for next year. So let's give her another year at that price...</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Good international
form. Another on the borderline for me, it might be the only international to
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<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>18. HAWKSPUR (18) 53.5 Cassidy/Waller $18</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: Obviously his form is great but after his Caulfield Cup ride, and after his repeated butcherings of Foreteller, can Cassidy be trusted to deliver on a horse that won't be bowling along in front? Not that I'm too bitter about it. Ability to win but will likely settle 24th and hope for a Pumper miracle. Ring a ding ding. </span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVut79Cp4kdgUBHJ97nAsKxv04JLu6gmcRL7FFDlx-6P4SgGxL7ZeqiWgx8DW0EO7KEaYUMHQWRYMJDhzhZAJL3m6o9rSx4kTeASA_zcXi6LtTmv4T5CxXqEdw8ShfNfLQ9ukSfnYj90A/s1600/cass.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVut79Cp4kdgUBHJ97nAsKxv04JLu6gmcRL7FFDlx-6P4SgGxL7ZeqiWgx8DW0EO7KEaYUMHQWRYMJDhzhZAJL3m6o9rSx4kTeASA_zcXi6LtTmv4T5CxXqEdw8ShfNfLQ9ukSfnYj90A/s1600/cass.jpg" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>I've butchered Foreteller this many times!</b></i></div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> Professor: </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">I have this and Fawkner down as the two to follow from Caulfield. I think this one will stay
too. 100% the forgotten horse this year. Admit it, you'd forgotten Hawkspur,
after it was slopped up by a Pumper special. My prediction at 3:05 tomorrow
there's a good chance you here something <br />
like "whacketty whack the Pumper is back". </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>19. SIMENON (12) 53.5 Hughes/Mullins $25</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: Not without a chance here, his run against Sea Moon in the Herbert Power was good though I would take Sea Moon before him. Will stay all day but looks like he'd prefer 4800m rather than 3200. Possibly in some sort of Grand Steeplechase. Perhaps a bit too slow for these?</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Professor: Hurdler, turdler, girdler. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">20. IBICENCO (17) 53 Nolen/Moody $66</span></b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Captain: I was trackside when he got towelled up by Turner Bayou (who?!?) to the tune of 11 lengths in the Listed Qld Cup on July 6. Suspicions will be aroused if he can improve enough to win a Melbourne Cup 4 months later. </span><br />
<br />
Professor: Pass. <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>21. VEREMA (3) 53 Lemaire/De Royer Dupre $20 </b></span> <br />
<br />
Captain: The trainer says that this one is every bit as good as Americain. I would suggest that this year's field is much stronger though. And that Americain thrived here. So I hope I am right because I am leaving here out at that price.<br />
<br />
Professor: The only thing that stands out to me is the trainer. This one is too short for me. <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>22. DEAR DEMI (16) 51 Munce/Connors $17</b></span><br />
<br />
Captain: In great form and no weight on her back, she's one I have thought long and hard about but ultimately I prefer a couple of others. It's as if the TAB machine read my mind because it pumped out a fistful of mystery trifectas, most of which featured Dear Demi!<br />
<br />
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Professor: I made a detailed
case for this one when I thought it would pay close to $50s. There's so little
confidence in this market that so many legitimate roughies can't get out past
$20.</span> </span></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">23. TRES BLEU (20) 51 Berry/Waterhouse $21</span></b><br />
<br />
Captain: I haven't seen any of the things this raced against in France out here and has raced primarily in Group 3/Listed company so I am suggesting she is a B-Grader. A poorly priced one at that. <br />
<br />
Professor: Not seasoned enough for me. <br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">24. RUSCELLO (24) 50 Schofield/Walker $71</span></b><br />
<br />
Captain: Since 2000 the record of horses winning the Lexus/Saab/Whatever Else It Has Been Called, into the Melbourne Cup is 13 starts for 2-0-2. Pretty handy. There has also been a 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th and 10th in that 13 year period. So generally speaking, they are race-fit and run well. I think having something on a Lexus winner with only 50kg on it's back when $71 is on offer seems like good business.<br />
<br />
Professor: <span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Was flattered by the bias on Saturday.</span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>CAPTAIN'S TIPS:</b> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">I am going hard on my top two fancies:</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">1. Fiorente</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">2. Fawkner</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Then having some fun in multiples with some roughies who will sit handy. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">3. Green Moon</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">4. Ruscello </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">5. Super Cool</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Advising savers on Dunaden and Foreteller also!</span></span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">PROFESSOR'S TIPS</span></span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;">Right now I have five horses:</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
1. Fiorente (hard)<br />
2. Fawkner, Hawkspur, Voleuse de Coeurs (moderate)<br />
3. Masked Marvel (light to hard depending on sobriety)<br />
<br />
My only actual wisdom to impart is that the market is so often wrong on the
internationals. If an international horse gets smashed in, don't feel like you
have to join that party!</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFEgqXWIbYuQi6hp6aGDbWlzTt6B9kcSPASWwATobtXSr_-HWiVL1kuqS7ru_ch3k-xd7IoR8CwXFB-eNq1BJysG70SFbxMS9Yne9b67uD2PUDAjuU2-pNgzX3mJQ59o4f8rMpDnYVltU/s1600/race.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFEgqXWIbYuQi6hp6aGDbWlzTt6B9kcSPASWwATobtXSr_-HWiVL1kuqS7ru_ch3k-xd7IoR8CwXFB-eNq1BJysG70SFbxMS9Yne9b67uD2PUDAjuU2-pNgzX3mJQ59o4f8rMpDnYVltU/s1600/race.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"></span><span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span> </span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"> </span>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<pre> <span style="font-family: "Courier New"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><i><b>Happy punting from the WHAB crew!</b></i></span></span></span></pre>
</div>
<br />
<br />Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-51742207927385433972013-11-03T18:23:00.000+11:002013-11-03T18:23:04.749+11:00MELBOURNE CUP 2013 WHAB's annual preview of the great race will be up first thing Tuesday morning!<br />
<br />
And remember, 60% of the time we're right all the time!Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-22350718847314484452013-09-16T10:08:00.000+10:002013-09-16T10:08:02.550+10:00JOHNSON WATCHHe just seems to be always lurking in the background of Australian cricket. Playing the odd ODI or T20 to remind us he still exists. Just loitering on the fringes waiting for others in the Test squad to succumb to injuries. And then you think to yourself, "well they've tried this Johnson thing a few times before now, surely that's that"...<br />
<br />
And then this clown writes this: <a href="http://www.cricketcountry.com/cricket-articles/Australia-need-Mitchell-Johnson-now-more-than-ever/30825">http://www.cricketcountry.com/cricket-articles/Australia-need-Mitchell-Johnson-now-more-than-ever/30825</a><br />
<br />
And George Bailey says this: <a href="http://sports.ndtv.com/the-ashes-2013/news/213146-george-bailey-backs-mitchell-johnson-for-ashes-return">http://sports.ndtv.com/the-ashes-2013/news/213146-george-bailey-backs-mitchell-johnson-for-ashes-return</a><br />
<br />
And then some people try to pretend that he is made of stern stuff: <a href="http://sports.ndtv.com/cricket/news/213880-mitchell-johnson-relishes-crowd-taunts-adam-voges">http://sports.ndtv.com/cricket/news/213880-mitchell-johnson-relishes-crowd-taunts-adam-voges</a> <br />
<br />
And everyone starts blowing their load because he is bowling really, really fast: <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-14/johnson-vows-to-put-england-on-back-foot/4957980">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-14/johnson-vows-to-put-england-on-back-foot/4957980</a><br />
<br />
Perhaps forgetting that this super-fast, super-scary bowling returned 0/64 off 9.3 overs in a chase of just 228... <br />
<br />
Perhaps forgetting that he is FUCKING RUBBISH.<br />
<br />
LET ME REMIND YOU ALL ONCE AGAIN:<br />
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<br />Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-42455641170025387702013-07-15T23:02:00.000+10:002013-07-15T23:05:16.778+10:00Ashes First Test ReviewFirstly, well played Australia. Not many of us predicted that the boys would get within a cheating Pom and a blind umpire of pulling off a miraculous victory. Rogers and Watson look a solid opening partnership in the short term. Hughes came through with some first innings runs, though still looks to have a few issues to sort out. Smith surprised by actually contributing something to Australian cricket, a tidy first innings saved us from complete disaster. Pattinson, Starc and Siddle all showed plenty of purpose with the ball. And you just couldn't help but feel sorry for Haddin, a valiant effort to get us within a cheating Pom and a blind umpire of glorious victory, justifying his selection as vice-captain fully. Such bravery, yet ultimate defeat, one wonders how I survived this Test without alcohol (visiting the in-laws)...<br />
<br />
And now to one Ashton Agar. Three weeks ago, I'd never been less excited about an Ashes series. A bit of interest started to creep back in after the appointment of Boof Lehmann, but still, we were surely up against it, and my patience had been worn thin over the last couple of years. My interest in Test cricket had indeed waned somewhat with each retirement of Warne, McGrath, Hayden, Langer, Gilchrist, Hussey etc etc. And at Trent Bridge, I realised why I hadn't been enjoying the game that much... I didn't have a hero any more. A guy capable of coming up with the unthinkable. A guy who doesn't know when to quit. A guy who isn't afraid of the moment. A guy who can conjure up some magic when all seems lost. A guy who can guts it out when the going is tough. Because it wasn't just the 98 he put on in the 163 run last wicket stand with Hughes in the first innings. It wasn't just the 2/82 (should have been 3-for if not for a cheating Pom and a blind umpire). But the 14 off 71 in the second innings, after all he'd done on debut to that point, those figures really epitomise the young man for me. At the time, we were pretty much beaten, but that gutsy 14 off 71 actually kept us in the game. So yeah, we lost the Test Match, and it left a bad taste in our mouths, even more so for those of us who butchered a 3 foot birdie putt on the Par 4 18th at Coffs Harbour Golf Course earlier that day, but I just think that as Aussie cricket fans, we've found ourselves so much more; a reason to get excited about Test Cricket once again. Another Ashes hero.<br />
<br />
Now to England. Firstly, I would just like to say that I think James Anderson is a fantastic bowler. But beyond that, the guy just gives me the shits with his off-to-the-races cockbaggery when he takes a wicket. Pump your fist and high five by all means. Just quit running around all over the place like a young woman who's seen a cock for the first time. Alastair Cook...he seems all for this Anderson behaviour so that certainly leaves a question mark over the England captain...And he also seems okay with that c-word of a man Stuart Broad cheating his fucking ass off, so yeah I have a big query on his character, that's for sure. The mark of a man for me; would I have a beer with the guy? Out of this England side, I seriously would find it hard to sit through a pint with any of them. Particularly Mr Cheating His Ass Off Broad. Hopefully team management have sent Dave Warner out on the turps on a seek and destroy mission, and hopefully he doesn't mistake Joe Root for Broad this time...<br />
<br />
And the umpires for the First Test can just fuck right off. They were an absolute disgrace. Bumbling fuckwits... <br />
<br />
Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-40715848775226920322013-07-10T11:38:00.000+10:002013-07-10T11:42:52.151+10:00ASHES TOUR 2013With Mickey Arthur's penchant for the unorthodox and retarded, so came his downfall, and we here at WHAB are pleased that the reign of Boof has begun. That's certainly not to say that all our worries are over but at least things seem to be heading in a direction that isn't a 10-0 trainwreck. With both sides as yet unnamed, Australia's in particular being a bit up in the air, let's just have a look at some key points for Trent Bridge.<br />
<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><u>First Test Points Of Note</u></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><u><br /></u></span></b></div>
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* As yet, Mitchell Johnson has not been considered for selection.</div>
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* As yet, Steve Smith has not been considered for selection.</div>
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* Neither Mitchell Johnson or Steve Smith have been considered for selection at this stage.</div>
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* Alastair Cook averages a paltry 19 at Trent Bridge. While that sounds like good news for Australia, in racing parlance, he's due.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
* Graeme Swann has just 3 wickets at 65 at Trent Bridge. While that sounds like good news for Australia, in racing parlance, he's due.</div>
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<br /></div>
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* Australia need to bowl like this:</div>
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* And this:</div>
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THE VERDICT: Pattinson is rightly a lock on opening the bowling and England's recent form against left-armers warrants Starc's selection. The concern with Starc is his lack of ticker when things aren't going our way and a tendency to leak quick runs. Jackson Bird may well turn out to be the closest thing to the great T. Alderman that we'll ever have but it doesn't appear that he'll get a start here. It baffled me how a guy can have such a brilliant start to his Test career, as Bird did, then got put back on the shelf, maybe Mickey Arthur can enlighten us when he pens his memoirs. Anyway, looks as if they'll go for Siddle because of his willingness to bust a gut and bowl long spells. Watson will supply some tight overs and hopefully come through without another injury. Lyon is yet to prove he is up to Test cricket. His wickets come when the team is well placed in a match. The unthreatening nature of his 4th and 5th day bowling is a massive concern given the calibre of batsmen we need to roll twice to win an Ashes Test. He needs to fire when it matters or that will be the end of that. Johnson and Smith are not in considerations at this point, England fans will be bitterly disappointed there. </div>
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Batting wise, Australia are thin. Cowan and Hughes have been given a fair go in the last year or so and haven't inspired any trust in fans. I would be playing Khawaja before either of them. Rogers' selection stabilises the top order given his form in English conditions and one has to remember, that while I prefer Watson down the order, his form opening with Katich was solid indeed. In fact, we haven't had any stability at the top since the Kat was stabbed in the back and the selectors/Clarke broke up a perfectly decent opening pair. Clarke is the rock in the batting order but we cannot rely on him to the shocking extent we have in recent times, more contributions are needed. Warner, well I wouldn't pick him for this personally, not until he proves he can go a lengthy period of time without being a total cockspanker. </div>
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England have quality with bat and ball, there are some weaknesses there no doubt, but Australia is going to have to play very well to expose those and get a good result here. Given their appalling recent form, it's hard to imagine Boof turning it all around in the space of a couple of weeks, but at least it looks like he's got things going in the right direction. I'm expecting a competitive start to the series, or series', and as for 10-0, you can blow that out your arse England! </div>
Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-12273119894919879812013-07-07T22:14:00.000+10:002013-07-07T22:14:24.297+10:00Channel 7 Just Don't Get SportThe first thing I want to say here on my return from long service leave is that I absolutely fucking loathe having to change channels during a TV program. It's just one of those little things in life that I can't get past. Can't let go. Can't fathom. Free to air sports programs seem to be the most affected by this abhorrence. And sure, you might say well it's only the click of a button, it's not such a big deal, but quite frankly, it is a big fucking deal and that's one fucking button too many for me. When Channel 7 think that it's okay to make viewers switch channels during a Men's Wimbledon Final, well that just takes the fucking cake. Disrespect and half-assedness of the highest order. A great big slap in the face from the kings of butchering tennis coverage. When Inspector Morse "Endeavour" is deemed immovable by 7, one wonders why the fuck they bother with some piss-ant Wimbledon Final between a World Number 1 and Britain's great hope... Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-73716446148615533602013-03-12T11:46:00.002+11:002013-03-12T11:46:35.663+11:00Counterpoint: send them home!This is not to support the current regime - it is difficult to see any progress in many players in the test team under Mickey Arthur. And it is difficult to see improvement in this rabble over the
past year. Often, the simplest call in cases like this is to blame this
on the coach. And, from the outside looking in - one can definitely see
that the new regime has failed to bring along some of the teams senior
players - with the exception of Michael Clarke. Notable amongst this
group is Shane Watson.<br />
<br />
This is not to say that the batting lineup that will be trotted out for the third test will be watchable. While there is probably some semblance of the top six that will go to the Ashes in Cowan, Warner, Hughes and Clarke - the long awaited test match return of one Steve Smith should fill everyone with dread. Glen Maxwell also appears to be a Smith level douche.<br />
<br />
Say what you will about this rabble though, at least they did their fucking homework. To me, what speaks more about this "homework" assignment is that most of the squad did do it. Ed Cowan spent five minutes doing his homework. David Warner spent half a day opening Power Point. Or got Cowan to do his. And then stole his lunch money.<br />
<br />
To me, that a couple of senior players didn't manage theirs demonstrates that these senior players may be a big factor in the malaise that seems to have struck this team in the last six months. That two guys who have spent the last month ghost writing Michael Clarke's tour diary couldn't do this is even more damning.<br />
<br />
If the message from Arthur was along the lines of:<br />
<ul>
<li>We've been comprehensively smashed in the last two tests.</li>
<li>Morale is broken.</li>
<li>You might not like the idea of putting together 5 powerpoint slides that explain:</li>
<ul>
<li>what has gone wrong;</li>
<li>what you need to do better; and</li>
<li>how we can pull together to win the Ashes.</li>
</ul>
<li>But it's important.</li>
<li>And if you can't do this, then you are a big part of the problem and can fuck right off.</li>
</ul>
Then I have no problem with this decision. <br />
<br />
Rather than blaming the system, as ex-players are wont to do, one could simply make the case that Australian cricket's poor results in the last six months have more to do with a general lack of elite talent and a tough schedule - South Africa at home, India away - that this team isn't up for.<br />
<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-90120613080858165502013-03-12T01:38:00.000+11:002013-03-12T01:39:39.421+11:00Assclown Of The Month - FebruaryWell, we were just about to give this award to John Inverarity again, given the state of Aussie cricket at the moment, but someone else within the Aussie cricket ranks stuck his hand up. And although it is technically March when news has broken that Mickey Arthur's answer to us being shit is to give grown men homework, I'm guessing February was full of the same sort of bullshit, given our performances. The end result of this guy's kindergarten approach to us being fucking hopeless, is to send home our best pace bowler, and a guy who, before injury woes, was holding this team together with both batting and bowling, and a guy who can potentially replace or bump Hughes up the order to replace our opener who is barely managing to average 30...<br />
<br />
Anyway, after these naughty fuckers didn't pay some nerd to do their homework, I'm now trying to work out our batting order for the Third Test: Cowan (great!), Warner (hit and miss), Hughes (untrustworthy), Clarke (this is partly your fault because you are, for some unfathomable reason, a selector), Smith (fuck yeah!), Wade (potentially injured, and yeah, of course we didn't take a back up keeper, let alone batsmen), Henriques, Maxwell (out of control slogger) and then the bowlers...<br />
<br />
Wow. How fucking underwhelming.<br />
<br />
And to think this guy has tried to trot out Glenn Maxwell...as a Test player...and now we'll have have to trot out Steve Smith as a Test batsmen...<br />
<br />
Has this team improved at all under Mickey Arthur? If, by improved, you mean just fucking unwatchable, then yeah...<br />
<br />
Top marks. An A fucking +. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG2hySOB-bOCJno29raA29srFPcHjNQKM_fEeH_asDR3qrkTp-2bU3UY4MLlozbzvGyZBY74QioV9f7uaJntqeGDcxG-xBpmHQ48BjY7KDmdG2-NM5jSzNqkkSpG2Y-siyMCyABJN02Og/s1600/arthur.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG2hySOB-bOCJno29raA29srFPcHjNQKM_fEeH_asDR3qrkTp-2bU3UY4MLlozbzvGyZBY74QioV9f7uaJntqeGDcxG-xBpmHQ48BjY7KDmdG2-NM5jSzNqkkSpG2Y-siyMCyABJN02Og/s1600/arthur.jpg" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>There is nothing even fucking remotely funny about this shit you Jaapie fucker... </b></i></div>
<br />
What do we need this South African Assclown for anyway? We've already got a SuperCoach in waiting, our very own Boof Lehmann!Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-19641947794046906012013-02-04T23:46:00.000+11:002013-02-04T23:46:54.911+11:00Assclown Of The Month - JanuaryAfter much deliberation, our panel of experts were unable to split the two standout candidates for January's Assclown Of The Month award. That's right, it's a TIE!!!<br />
<br />
<b>Co-Assclown Of The Month #1: JOHN INVERARITY</b><br />
<br />
Firstly, this guy just looks so fucking old:<br />
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<br />
The last time I saw someone that looked this old, they drove past a "no exit" sign, proceeded to drive in the wrong direction around a roundabout, then tried to reverse into oncoming traffic and got stuck facing the wrong way at the traffic lights at said roundabout. <br />
<br />
Secondly, this guy is just a fucking extension of Andrew "Assclown Himself" Hilditch, I have seen no overall improvements in the scheme of Australian cricket under this old bastard. He's largely ignored the Argus, will no doubt ignore the Warnie, can't be told anything by anyone, has ramped up "rotation" to the point of insanity, which has left us with many injured bowlers (because instead of actually bowling everyday they spend their time fucking around with upper body weights and downtime (onya Pat Howard)), has given Michael Clarke (a petty and selfish man) a spot on the selectors panel, has left us with the possible horror story of a Maxwell/Smith middle order in India (fuck me dead) not to mention a possible Maxwell/Smith bowling attack (kill me now), not to mention that Steve Fucking Smith might actually get somewhere near that flight to Heathrow, and lastly, he's just so fucking old and has no fucking idea what he's doing. No more worthy candidate. Or is there?!?!?<br />
<br />
<b>Co-Assclown Of The Month #2: RAY LEWIS</b><br />
<br />
Watching this assclown's blubbering pro-God bullshit after playoff wins against Denver (who grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory), and New England ($1.20 favourites in a playoff game, LAY THAT SHIT ALL DAY!!!), before enduring him collecting another Superbowl ring, well I still remember that the guy is an absolute c-word of a human being. Let me refresh your memory: Murder investigation. Missing white suit. Victims' blood in his limo. Dobs in friends. Obstructs justice. Pays off victims' families. 6 kids from 4 different woman. 4 different women that he's beaten up. Sorry Ray, your team was the better team in the Superbowl, it had nothing to do with God because it's safe to say that he thinks you're a c*#t too...<br />
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"<i><b>Man Don't Decide That. God Decide That."</b></i></div>
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Pretty sure God has bigger issues to deal with than making sure an assclown like you wins another Superbowl...<i><b><br /></b></i></div>
Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-40254687973698013322013-02-01T11:41:00.002+11:002013-02-01T11:41:53.400+11:00A good day for bit players<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
I stopped posting regularly a couple of years back for a couple of reasons. First, my work and life commitments increased. Second, the Argus review filled me with hope that the dark days of inept selections were behind us.</div>
<br />
But then <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/cricket/australian-selectors-name-squad-of-17-for-test-series-in-india/story-e6frfg8o-1226565807818">this happened</a>. Rejoice, bit-players!<br />
<br />
More to come on this squad later, but my first thoughts when I read it are that the selectors have no plan. Off the top of my head, the first choice team right now is probably along the lines of:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Cowan, Warner, Hughes, Watson, Clarke, Khawaja, Wade, Siddle, Starc, Pattinson, Lyon. </li>
</ul>
And that, is actually a perfectly cromulent starting XI. Sub in Johnson or Bird if you feel the need, your mileage may vary. You might want to play two spinners on a turning deck. In that case, maybe you use an all-rounder at the six spot. For that reason I can fathom carrying Henriques - who completely deserves his chance and Maxwell (although it's a bit more of a leap of faith to see Maxwell batting in the top six of a test team. So, perhaps you end up with a team that looks like:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Cowan, Warner, Hughes, Watson, Clarke, Henriques, Wade, Siddle, Doherty, Pattinson, Lyon; or</li>
<li>Cowan, Warner, Hughes, Watson, Clarke, Maxwell, Wade, Siddle, Starc, Pattinson, Lyon.</li>
</ul>
So, barring my long-standing objection to Mitchell Johnson, you have two very questionable selections. The first is Xavier Doherty. We know what Xavier Doherty can do, which is probably not enough at test level. Why pick Doherty? The selectors have hitched their wagon to Nathan Lyon, and the unexciting Doherty will be unlikely to inspire a "spinner controversy" in the selection room. Ideally, you would have seen the selectors groom a legitimate challenger to Doherty (the Colin Kaepernick to Lyon's Alex Smith) but, hey that is what forward thinking organisations do.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2009/10/26/1225791/474189-steve-smith.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2009/10/26/1225791/474189-steve-smith.jpg" width="240" /></a>The really difficult selection to fathom here is Steve F. Smith.* Looking at the three possible line-ups listed above, it is difficult to see what role SFS would play. As much as I am a fan of Ed Cowan (Ed has his own article coming next week), I understand the need to have a reserve batsman on tour, to either cover for poor form from Cowan or Khawaja - or, I don't know, an INJURY. At the moment, your reserve batsman is Steve Smith. If one of the top five batsmen get injured, get ready for a middle order of Smith & Maxwell at five and six**. That's what this squad sets up. My first choice for the 17th member of the squad would have been Brad Haddin, for his ability to act as an adequate cover for the top six batsmen, and I don't know push/cover Matthew Wade. Otherwise, take your pick of Bailey, Ferguson, Doolan, D. Hussey or whoever else you want, really.<br />
<br />
* Steve Fucking Smith<br />
<br />
** Hey, maybe Smith gets lucky and then he's your starting number six in the Ashes. You brought this on yourselves, Australia.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-81512442274973352502012-11-06T10:47:00.000+11:002012-11-06T10:47:13.387+11:00Melbourne Cup 2012Welcome all to WHAB's annual Melbourne Cup Preview! Normally at this time of year I am joined by the Professor to discuss all things Cup but I'm afraid it's a dry argument when you're stuck in the Middle East.<br />
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<i><b>The Professor on assignment for WHAB...</b></i></div>
<br />
Hopefully he'll at least be able to get some internet bets on and find coverage of the Cup on Al Jazeera. Anyway, I'm getting dribs and drabs from the man, so we'll piece together his tips. Let's roll!<br />
<br />
<b>1. DUNADEN 59 Williams/Delzangles</b> <br />
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<b>Captain:</b> If you saw his win in the Caulfield Cup, on a day when nothing was running on from the back, consider that the only other horse with 58kg to even run a place in that event in the last 30 years was the great Northerly, and yeah, remember that he won this race last year, if you consider all this and don't have him in your multiples, then you sir, are an assclown.<br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Indeed. 59 kg in the Melbourne Cup is a lot of weight. A lot of weight. At the same time, 58 kg was a lot of weight in the Caulfield Cup. Mot impressive Caulfield Cup run in my memory, and for me a must have.<br />
<br />
<b>2. AMERICAIN 58 Oliver/De Royer Dupre</b> <br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Staggering how a horse that won this in 2010 and with any sort of luck would have won last year as well was offered at 30/1. That's right, 30/1 on a horse who is just perfectly suited to this race. Like I said, with any sort of luck in the run would have won last year, so to try and take luck out of the equation, Oliver replaces Mosse, who despite riding a great race on him in the 2010 Cup, has preferred the company of revellers on the grandstand fence in recent times. Ran a very nice Caulfield Cup, better suited here at two miles, and meets Dunaden 4.5kg better than in last year's Cup. Anyway, I see they're currently offering $6 on him... <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Beginning to drift in the market, now out to $8. I think the run in the Caulfield Cup was good, though nowhere near the quality of Dunaden's run. A must for your top four, but I prefer the other two French horses, though only barely.<br />
<br />
<b>3. JAKKALBERRY 55.5 O'Donoghue/Botti</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Racking up the frequent flyers, some of his runs on his World Tour have been really good, others not so good. My biggest concern is he's never drawn anywhere near gate 19, never raced in a 24 horse field, and I think they are big issues for him here. Has ability but will have to pass. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Passing on Jakkalberry. Some good runs, I just prefer others.<br />
<br />
<b>4. RED CADEAUX 55.5 Rodd/Dunlop</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Beaten the width of a pubic hair last year and will be going close again. Curiously has been slugged 2kg on last year for winning a Group 2 in the UK...Dunaden carries 4.5kg more for winning a Melbourne Cup, a Hong Kong Vase and a Caulfield Cup. Perhaps a bit harshly dealt with considering, but he will be in the finish nonetheless and any rain would help. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Along with Dunaden, this one is my top pick for this years running. The weight turnaround on Dunaden is enough to give this a real shake. All runs since have demonstrated that he hasn't gotten worse since last year, and at least we know he runs the trip and can deal with a field of this size.<br />
<br />
<b>5. WINCHESTER 55.5 Mott/Sadler</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Probably the greatest plugger to ever visit these shores, he's always thereabouts. By thereabouts, I mean plugging home solidly for 7th. Just plugs all day. Unfortunately for Winchester, you can't win a Melbourne Cup plugging...at the price is worth a thought for multiples though.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Chaos: </b>Every year, only 10 horses or so genuinely run the trip. This will be one of them - so at $41 he's worth a ticket. The form in the lead in has been good enough as well.<br />
<br />
<b>6. VOILA ICI 55 Duric/Moody</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> I was on him at big odds for the Caulfield Cup, he jarred up, ran last, and that is about the worst lead up you can have for a Cup. Moody even said himself that there are others who deserve to be in the Cup more than this, but selfishly accepted anyway. In fairness, I would have done the same. He'll play the role of the Aidan O'Brien runner, set a Lightning Stks tempo and knock up near the tail. Big wooden spoon hope.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>Voila Ici at the 600m...</b></i></div>
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> The captain twisted my arm to have a good piece of this in the Caulfield Cup. I won't be doubling up here.<br />
<b>7. CAVALRYMAN 54 Dettori/Bin Suroor</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Cavalryman circa 2009 goes pretty close to winning this. Not sure about this year's edition, seems a lot more dour these day, but obviously two miles looks his go and this is the least amount of weight he's ever carried. I will leave him out, but won't consider you an assclown if you throw him in...<br />
<br />
<b>Chaos: </b>Passing. <br />
<br />
<b>8. MOUNT ATHOS 54 Moore/Cumani</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> I have the utmost respect for Luca Cumani, and his daughter is a good sort, but question where this one is in the market here. He's been winning comfortably but he's not beaten much, granted he's been carrying some bullshit weights, but this is a huge acid test. At the odds, would you really back him before the two Frenchies? <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Will likely start favourite given the last few hours of betting. I'd prefer the three French horses to him, but I understand why you'd chase this one.<br />
<br />
<b>9. SANAGAS 54 Hall/Bart Cummings</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> I was about to tee off about how fucking hopeless this thing is, but upon further investigation, perhaps it's not so bad. Hard to see it winning but if I'm being honest, it's form is probably as good as Viewed's was going into this, if not better...one to think about if you want some really juice in your multiples...<br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> I am not seeing what the Captain is seeing here. Pass!<br />
<br />
<b>10. ETHIOPIA 53.5 McLeod/Carey</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Despite Pat Carey usurping Lloyd Williams as the racing industry's king of spin-doctoring, you should keep this one very safe. Originally one of my two Cups horses for the Spring, I've had to endure Carey's will he or won't he bullshit for the last 12 weeks, when he should have straight up said Ethiopia was always being set for the Cup and nothing but the Cup. Only time he stepped out to a trip he powered home from last to win the AJC Derby. Would be something if he had just his second career win in the Cup... <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Form is very good, and this to me is by far the pick of the Australian runners. Along with the French horses rounds out my top four.<br />
<br />
<b>11. FIORENTE 53.5 McDonald/Waterhouse</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> I'll grant that this has ability but I'm leaving it out. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Team Waterhouse is a concern - the distance races don't tend to suit the classic Waterhouse approach. However, this one is a recent addition, has form around the best European horses, and has been out-and-out missed by the handicapper. Add to that a scintillating gallop last week, and you have the pick of the roughies.<br />
<br />
<b>12. GALILEO'S CHOICE 53.5 Smullen/Weld</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Dermot Weld has always given me the shits with his incessant pissin' an' moanin'. Apparently he's been in good spirits, hopefully this thing bombs, he becomes a cranky old bastard again and order is restored. Because it would make a mockery of our Great Race if a fucking hurdler gets up. That's right, he's been preparing for this over the jumps. Fuck me. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Team Weld's supporters have smashed this overnight. Probably gets 2 miles without too much problems and has really in my opinion been missed by the handicapper.<br />
<br />
<b>13. GLENCADAM GOLD 53.5 Berry/Waterhouse</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Worked early in the Caulfield Cup but more was expected and not delivered. I wasn't convinced of him getting two miles before and I am all but certain he won't after that. Will get in an epic speed battle with Voila Ici and they'll finish together, at the wrong end of the field. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> The shine is off after Caulfield. To an extent, you could say that Kellini went out and franked the Metrop form last week. If you can forgive the Caulfield run you could have this one at odds, but combine it with the front running style, and even with some considerable improvement this one is hard to see winning. Likely to SANDMASON this one and set up the backmarkers.<br />
<br />
<b>14. GREEN MOON 53.5 Prebble/Hickmott</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> No idea why he ran in the Cox, no idea why he started favourite there. Like Glencadam Gold, there is nothing in his CV that says he runs two miles. Under the odds. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Favourite for everything this year a few weeks ago from the Metrop to the Cox, to the Caulfield to this race and next season of Masterchef. This is one overrated animal.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>Green Moon gears up for Masterchef Series 5...</b></i></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>15. MALUCKYDAY 53.5 Cassidy/Team Hawkes</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Even forgetting the farcically run Geelong Cup, the Tanby form was found wanting in the Lexus. Will be competitive, but agree with the Professor here, they really have got the Aussie market wrong. He's not the same horse as he was when he ran 2nd in this race in 2010. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> The form hasn't been good enough for me and shouldn't be the top Aussie chance - one has to think that Mourayan, Ethiopia and Lights of Heaven are going much better.<br />
<br />
<b>16. MOURAYAN 53.5 Bowman/Hickmott</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> I liked this guy last year but in typical Williams' camp fashion they waited till everyone had backed it before scratching it late. Nothing to say that won't happen again I guess, but if he runs, he's a chance. Will park just behind the speed and will run the two miles. That's exactly what you're looking for in a Cup, the only question is whether he is good enough. Throw him into your exotics. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> I'll let the Captain sell you on this one.<br />
<br />
<b>17. MY QUEST FOR PEACE 53.5 Brown/Cumani</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> I have the utmost respect for Luca Cumani, and his daughter is a good sort, but I wanted to see more form this one in the Caulfield Cup to pique my interest, he really had every chance there.<br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Did enough in the Caulfield to warrant a serious look, but you can't have them all..<br />
<br />
<b>18. NIWOT 53.5 Dunn/Team Hawkes</b> <br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Nothing in his recent form suggests he will improve on last year's 8th carrying 2.5kg more... <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> I'll have a cheeky $5er on Niwot on the off chance that he finds his A-game. But, I do love Niwot. You aren't likely as emotionally involved, so best to leave alone.<br />
<br />
<b>19. TAC DE BOISTRON 53.5 Doleuze/Kent</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> No rain, no Tac. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Would be a special if this was being run in New York last week.<br />
<br />
<b>20. LIGHTS OF HEAVEN 53 Nolen/Moody</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> I'd be backing this before Kelinni and Maluckyday at similar odds, that's for sure. Bred to stay and should be at her peak for this. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Had all the favours in the Caulfield Cup. That said, this is a very well weighted horse and capable of upstaging the imports if they run this at a slow pace.<br />
<br />
<b>21. PRECEDENCE 53 Shinn/Cummings</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> I know he's out of Zabeel but he just doesn't get two miles. Bart is just taking the piss. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Piss is being taken.<br />
<br />
<b>22. UNUSUAL SUSPECT 53 Schofield/Kent</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain: </b>This guy's form speaks for itself so instead, here's something more interesting...<br />
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<b>Chaos:</b> I suspect this one would be better off in the Long Black, where he'd still need to be paying double figures.<br />
<br />
<b>23. ZABEELIONAIRE: 52 Newitt/Corstens</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> Bryan Martin made the mistake of comparing his run in the Mackinnon to a Bart Cummings stayer. Then all the Channel 7 people picked up on it because they don't have any opinions of their own and it has just got out of hand. Fuck Channel 7. He'll beat more home than beat him but doubt he has the class to take this out. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> No better than Winchester in his Mackinnon run. And Winchester has the pedigree and has had a more consistent prep.<br />
<br />
<b>24. KELINNI 51 Boss/Waller</b><br />
<br />
<b>Captain:</b> While you can't ever right off a Lexus winner completely, I'm not convinced the form there will stack up this time. At $19, well, Lights Of Heaven is at that price, and has much better credentials. No value at all. <br />
<br />
<b>Chaos:</b> Waller is a training ninja, so to me this one can't be written off. And is there any greater ninja move than the 30 day break, run, and three day back up?<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>Let's Fighting Love!!!</b></i></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>SELECTIONS</b></div>
<br />
<b>Captain:</b><br />
<br />
<b>1. Americain</b><br />
<b>2. Dunaden</b><br />
<b>3. Red Cadeaux</b><br />
<b>4. Ethiopia</b><br />
<br />
Boxing those four with <b>Lights Of Heaven</b> and <b>Mourayan</b>. Should be cleaning up big time!<br />
<br />
Chaos: My top four are <b>Red Cadeaux - Dunaden - Ethiopia - Fiorente</b>. Obviously worried about <b>Americain</b> and <b>Mt Athos</b>. I could probably add <b>Galileo's Choice</b> to my bets as well.<br />
<br />
For a $100 investment I will likely look at<br />
<br />
$25 win <b>Red Cadeaux</b> = $212.50<br />
$30 win <b>Dunaden</b> = $240<br />
$15 win <b>Ethiopia</b> = $315<br />
$10/$10 <b>Fiorente</b> = $310/100<br />
<br />
<br />Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-81761931270089928002012-11-01T12:20:00.000+11:002012-11-01T12:20:50.090+11:00WHAB's Melbourne Cup 2012 Form Guide ...Coming soon. All the form and selections for the great race, plus a high speed car chase, a special guest for this year's edition, circus elephants, possibly a cross to the Professor wandering the globe, explosions, maybe Dan Nikolic, and definitely no Mitchell Johnson...<br />
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><i>Oh, It's On.....Melbourne Cup 2012 at WHAB...</i></b></div>
Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-76318180229824177612012-11-01T11:28:00.002+11:002012-11-01T11:28:36.015+11:00A Sigh Of Relief...<b>Australian Test Squad to face South Africa:</b><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Michael Clarke (c)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Shane Watson (v-c)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Ed Cowan</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">David Warner</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Ricky Ponting</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Mike Hussey</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Matthew Wade</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Peter Siddle</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">James Pattinson</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Ben Hilfenhaus</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Nathan Lyon</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">Mitchell Starc</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">It's the first step towards a Johnson-less summer for the Australian Cricket side...</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #4a4e47; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">And that sounds fucking great to me.</span>Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-7596193555589289492012-10-19T23:59:00.000+11:002012-10-19T23:59:22.658+11:00Hey Robert Craddock...Being chief sportswriter for the Courier Mail does not give you an exclusive license to comment on racing if you don't understand the sport. Being chief sportswriter for the Courier Mail means you are the chief sportswriter for a god-awful publication, but nonetheless, one that actually has people that know a little something about racing, unlike yourself. Don't write about racing ever again, because on your one racing masterpiece, it's clear you know nothing about racing, maybe less than you know about cricket. You are a fucking nonsense Craddock, how you are chief sportswriter of anything, even the abomination that is the Brisbane Courier Mail, I have no idea, and I hope sincerely you cop a sharp kick to the balls from both Luke Nolen and Nash Rawiller. I will be lining up right behind them. Oh yeah, right to the fucking ghoulies you clown... Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-27931809205134113022012-08-30T13:25:00.000+10:002012-08-30T13:25:24.904+10:00Johnson Watch<b>1st ODI, Australia vs Pakistan</b><br />
<br />
Pattinson: 9.1 overs <b>3/19</b><br />
<br />
Starc: 10 overs <b>5/42</b><br />
<br />
<b><u>Johnson: 9 overs 1/43</u></b><br />
<br />
Thankfully for Australia, Johnson was able to pick up the absolutely crucial wicket of Tanvir.<br />
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<i><b>Johnson goes nuts after picking up Pakistan's dangerous no. 9...</b></i></div>
Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-55430901598316448332012-08-22T00:57:00.001+10:002012-08-22T00:57:57.330+10:00QLD Make It Eight/Nine StraightQLD has been gifted a (record) eighth and (record) ninth straight Origin series victories today, after NSWRL conceded the 2013 and 2014 series, appointing Laurie Daley as Blues coach. Daley, a culpable selector for the Blues five consecutive, uncompetitive series losses between 2006 and 2010, takes over from Ricky Stuart, an actual coach, who still couldn't get the job done. <br />
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<i><b>Oh fucking hell, is that a fucking Maroons shirt already?!?</b></i> <i><b>If you can't beat 'em join 'em eh Loz!</b></i></div>
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His head coaching CV includes five games at the helm for Country Origin
(two wins), and three games in charge of the Indigenous All Stars (one
win). Despite a lack of coaching experience and success, and the fact that no Blues fan holds any hope for the next two years, Daley remains optimistic. “I <i>think</i> I know what is required. Phase one is working together as a team. Phase three is winning the Origin series." <br />
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Former Maroons halfback Allan Langer praised the decision. “I know Laurie is still very passionate about the NSW side and he'll do a very good job,” he said, trying to stifle a cheeky chuckle.<br />
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A regular in the commentary box for Foxsports, Daley has shown great insight into the game of rugby league, particularly with classic predictions like "the team who comes out and scores the most points in this game will win", "what a competition we have, on any given day 1st can beat 16th" and on Origin, "New South Wales will need to score tries if they are going to beat Queensland". <br />
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Daley reportedly beat out the actively job-seeking pair of Stephen Kearney and Nathan Brown for the position. Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-29848941070661223812012-07-25T16:14:00.000+10:002012-07-25T16:48:53.782+10:00Can we expect Mitchell Johnson to get better?It's an article of faith in Australian cricket circles that there is a well of untapped potential somewhere under Mitchell Johnson's mega-tough tattoos. The argument tends to run along the lines of:<br />
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<ul>
<li>Mitchell Johnson is a 'once-in-a-generation' bowler (top pick Dennis!);</li>
<li>All we need to do is <i>wait </i>for Mitch to realise his full potential<i>.</i></li>
</ul>
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">This was highlighted by Chairman of Selectors, John Inverarity who noted that:</span></i><br />
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`We know how well he can bowl. That Test match against England in Perth when he got his action just right. It is in there somewhere, if we can provide the support and he can deliver than he is an outstanding player. Mitch has x-factor and of course.... Now he has to perform.'</blockquote>
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">So, can we expect a renaissance from Mitch? By awarding a contract to Johnson, Cricket Australia seems to think so. Rather than speculate on Mitch finding his <b>X-FACTOR, </b>I thought a more robust approach would be to see what the top fast bowlers over the last 20 years can tell us about what we can expect now from MITCH, and whether CA can expect much of a return on its investment.</span></i><br />
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I've gone to cricinfo and taken a sample of the highest wicket taking fast bowlers of the last 30 years. Effectively, to make this study, a bowler needs to have taken more than 200 test wickets and bowled a test match delivery in the 1990s. That gives a sample of almost 40 quick bowlers.<br />
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I'm interested in how many wickets that each bowler has taken by year of age. What I've come up with is a very rough aging curve for fast bowlers. This is what it looks like.<br />
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What does it tell us?<br />
<ul>
<li>Fast bowlers tend to enjoy some success at a young age, some of the better quick bowlers were showing a lot of promise in their late teens to early twenties.</li>
<li>Fast bowlers have an 'injury nexus' at around 21/22 years of age. This isn't relevant to this post but it's really interesting information in light of Australia's ashes hopes being pinned to young bowlers like Pattinson and Cummins.</li>
<li>Fast bowlers peak between the ages of 25 and 28.</li>
<li>Fast bowlers tend to fall off gradually until they hit 31, and then decline much more rapidly from that point.</li>
</ul>
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Mitch is 31. His last two seasons have been disasters. So based on this rudimentary analysis, we could quickly make the case that perhaps Mitch is unlikely to get better. I'm happy to finish it there, but perhaps we would be well served to have a look at the data in a touch more detail and see whether these is still hope for Mitch. As such, I have broken the sample into three sections:<br />
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<ul>
<li>bowlers who had long, stable careers (about half of the sample); </li>
<li>bowlers who found another gear in their early 30s (about 10 per cent of the sample); and </li>
<li>bowlers that declined rapidly from their peak years (about 40 per cent of the sample). </li>
</ul>
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Mitch can't fall into that first category given his performance over the last 2 years. <i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"></span></i><br />
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These are the business as usual quicks, that keep on going into their early thirties. They don't get better, and they don't get worse in a hurry. These guys don't really match the profile we have seen with Mitch to date, so we've thrown them out (or at least I haven't bothered putting together a chart for them). Some of them start awesome, and stay awesome into their late thirties (McGrath, Ambrose). Some start out mediocre and continue to be mediocre (Vaas, Caddick, Martin). Anyway, they don't fit the profile that we are looking for so we'll move on to the two groups that do. </div>
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</span></i>So the career profiles that we have left are the guys that got better, and the guys that got worse.<br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 19px; font-weight: bold;">The late bloomer</span></div>
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The career path that we could hope for in the best case scenario, and the one that CA appears to be banking on given Johnson's inclusion in ODI squads for both England, and now Pakistan appears to be that Mitch will improve at age 31.<br />
Out of our sample of almost 40 bowlers, only four found another gear in their early thirties as it were.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mOvrJ7L2YgQ/UA9rd7Vi8EI/AAAAAAAAATk/8byMx50I4wo/s1600/Age+chart+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="405" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mOvrJ7L2YgQ/UA9rd7Vi8EI/AAAAAAAAATk/8byMx50I4wo/s640/Age+chart+2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The late bloomers effectively amount to:<br />
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<li>Two of the greatest fast bowlers of all time - Courtney Walsh and SIR Richard Hadlee;</li>
<li>Alan Donald who took <b>80 </b>test wickets at age 32; and</li>
<li>A toiler who had the best season of his career at age 33 - go Merv!</li>
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There isn't a particularly good comparison for Mitch on this list. The first two guys on the list are two of the smartest bowlers that I have watched play the game. Bowlers who lost yards of pace and still found ways to get an ass-load of batsmen out. Alan Donald's body was spared the grind of test cricket until Apartheid was lifted in 1991 which may have helped delay his peak a bit. And Merv. I have no explanation for Merv.</div>
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The rapid decline </h3>
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This is the other category that Mitch can fit in to given his profile to date. Bowlers who fell off dramatically from 29 to 31 years of age. The sample is full of bowlers that fit this profile, but I've picked six for the chart below. These guys were good (Hoggard) to excellent for their peak years, but all of these guys were completely spent forces by 30 apart from Waqar who was gone by 31.</div>
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These careers look like good comparators for Johnson, in fact one bowler in particular has looked pretty similar.<br />
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Yep, Mitchell Johnson is a poor man's Steve Harmison. You would hope in a post-Argus world that CA would undertake this kind of analysis, but Johnson's continuing presence in the squad and my Ashes nightmares means that they probably haven't. <br />
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Ashes 2013. Get excited!<br />
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</div>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-69406421220113937062012-07-11T01:07:00.001+10:002012-07-11T01:07:22.434+10:00Johnson WatchWell Mitch Johnson is all fired up and ready to go for the final ODI, that incidentally, means nothing. Talking the talk for the dead rubber he is:<br />
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<i>"There's maybe a bit of fire missing in our one-day side. My role in the
team is I want to have that fire in the belly, get really aggressive,
show them that we're serious and get on top of them. It could take a few
games, it might be the next game where it all switches back on for me."</i><i></i><br />
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Is this guy fucking for real?!?<br />
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For more extensive bollocks, some of the most extensive bollocks imaginable:<br />
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<a href="http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/current/story/571697.html">http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/current/story/571697.html</a><br />
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Fucking laughable. I was not really watching an AFL game at the weekend and heard Dermott Brereton even taking a potshot at Johnson's wayward bowling. So more of the same I'm boldly predicting:<br />
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<br /></div>Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-45617231189124432242012-07-05T23:55:00.001+10:002012-07-05T23:55:04.157+10:00The Great Debate: Who Sucks More?Arriving home from Suncorp Stadium, after yet another Origin series loss, all I could think about was how much I fucking loathe Ben Creagh. So much so that I stunned the Qld bogans sitting around me at the game when I unleashed a stinging torrent of abuse at him after he went down like the softcock he is. After directing him towards the bench, questioning his commitment/skills/ticker/sexuality, hollering "You're nothing but a waste of a fucking interchange!" and wondering why this pussy is taking game time off a courageous cover tackle merchant like Luke Lewis, I pointed out to the rednecks that I realised he was "on our team" but I didn't care because he's shit, and a girly-man. Here's what I'm fucking talking about:<br />
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<i><b>NB: Thaiday, who picks exclusively on Mitchell Pearce because he's small, senses that Creagh is a cat and moves in for some bullying...</b></i> </div>
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I was just as disgusted when I flicked on the 2nd ODI in England the other night to see Mitchell Johnson named in the side. So let me get this straight...a guy bowls pies all summer and takes no wickets despite the fact we are smashing the Indians, then gets injured and doesn't play for 6 months, and not only do we find a seat on the plane to England for him, we rush him back into the side as soon as possible? He's been fucking terrible for as long as I can remember and this has been well-documented here. Not to mention that last time he was in England he had a fucking meltdown because his Mum said she doesn't like his girlfriend. And bowled overs and overs of fucking garbage. At the top of his run, all this bitch could think about was how Mummy could be so mean rather than how he was going to knock over the Poms. And he even fucking admitted it. Fucking weak as piss. To be fair, he bowled particularly well for his 0/43 off 7 overs the other night, with a career low of only 2 wides. Promising stuff. If the Poms were smart, they'd tank the rest of this ODI series and deliberately throw their wicket away to Johnson. All of their wickets. The selectors will see 10/66 and he'll be thrust into the Ashes series. Think about it England...you know it just as much as I do:</div>
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So who sucks more? Two useless, weak-minded deadshits, that know just how to rub up the selectors. I can't split them...and the debate will rage on.....</div>Master Ohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00674054900515007793noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7743563958457915835.post-77859993292177719452012-07-05T17:23:00.005+10:002012-07-05T17:23:57.470+10:00Posted without comment<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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