Thursday, April 17, 2008

And they said it couldn't be done

A big 'hello' to those returning wealthy and a 'nice to meet you' to the poor first time readers. Nothing could help the multi last week with Chelsea putting aside any aspirations of challenging for the title in the premiers league and the less said about Richmond the better. Now for the magic:

Last $50 ...

NRL
$20 on the Sharks to destroy what's left of the Professors' aspirations for the Panthers in a tight one by 12 or less paying $3.10

$10 on the Warriors to take care of the Cowboys by 13+ at $7

EPL
$10 on Liverpool to take maximum points out of their match with Fulham paying $2. Fulham beat Liverpool earlier this year, they're fighting to stay in the Premiers and Liverpool may well rest several players, but look for Torres to steal their hopes and the win.

Revenge
$10 on the Bulldogs to do what Fremantle should have done last week paying $3.20 to put 40+ on them

Potential payout of $184, so don't let me catch you with your girlfriend

Betting post part 1 - Professorial tips of excellence.

So as I said earlier, it takes BRASS BALLS to come back and win some currency. We have $50 to play with for regular sports and $50 to play with on the Slipper this weekend. Not certain about my Slipper bets yet, so just going to put up some regular sports at this stage.

Manly had been playing very well until they played how they usually play against the Storm. That is, extremely poorly. They run into the horrible Eels this weekend and one feels that the ship is about to be righted on Friday night.

Lets play with $18 on the Eagles at $2.20.

Penrith ran into the hottest team in League last weekend and now run into one of the games most boring. Think that they will get up here. Have $15 on them to win at @2.60. Lets fatten up that Christmas turkey with making it a multi - Penrith (straight) @ 2.60 * Melbourne (+12.5) @ 2.15 for a nice payout of $5.59.

I'll have $10 on that... yes I will.

$7 left to play with. Let's talk about a fat multi bet here. The Tigers to cover the 5 point start against the Rabbitohs * the Panthers by 1-12 * the NAVY BLUES to cover the 20.5 against the Demons. I'll have a little piece of that action at $16.60.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Rammed at "Pride Park". Again. And again.

Well it's almost over for the worst side in English Premier League history. On May 11, Derby County will play their last EPL match of the season against Reading at the ironically named “Pride Park”. And after their most recent home effort, a 6-0 drubbing at the feet of Aston Villa many are hoping it is their last match ever in the top flight. The monstrosity which is the 2007/2008 Derby outfit has eked out a mere 11 points from 34 matches and leaves all concerned pondering whether they are even worthy of a spot in the Championship. The Rams have been the rammees rather than the rammers in this drab affair, bent over by multiple 6 goal maulings and a -58 goal difference which continues to grow. Oh the humanity! The saddest of indictments on this collaboration of riff-raff is that a draw at home to another team in the relegation zone is a terrific result. It's hard to see them performing well back in the Championship either. They are a team bereft of confidence and dignity with their solitary Premier League win on the 17th of September last year (against Newcastle) and they have taken only one point from teams in the top half. Only Newcastle will be thrilled that Derby are gone, having somehow managed to drop four points to a team that most sides toyed with. Fancy that JB! Derby have been already relegated for some time now but the question remains; who will be joining them?

We’ll start with Fulham. They are four points adrift of 17th placed Birmingham and five points off 16th placed Reading, with home ties against Liverpool and Birmingham and away matches against Manchester City and Portsmouth. Three sides in the top half there so if the Cottagers were not to capitalise with three points against Birmingham then it would be academic. Even if they manage a win against the Blues they are more than likely going to need to at least win another of their fixtures. That will probably still not be enough. I think it’s safe to say that managers of those teams in higher places are eyeing off a few bargain buys and benchwarmers for next season as Fulham take the drop.

Bolton (two points behind Birmingham, three behind Reading) also look doomed with three away games from their last four. You wouldn’t fancy these guys to get much out of Middlesborough, Tottenham and Chelsea away from home. They have only won once on the road (at Reading) and picked up just 6 away points to date while being outscored by 24 goals. They must defeat Sunderland at home to have any chance but, like Fulham, they need more points from somewhere and unfortunately they’ve run out of games against Derby.

So there you have it. Derby, Fulham, Bolton relegated. Birmingham look the strongest of the five sides mentioned at present and really one win would just about do it. With the addition of Ralph Macchio’s Argentinian second cousin Mauro “The Zarate Kid” Zarate they have been in black belt form. Wax on. Wax off. Reading look like they have accrued enough points to stumble back into the Premier League for another year. And maybe they’ll do it in style by cracking another 6 past Derby at “Pride Park” on the final day.

Who will rise from the Championship? Not sure. For the two instant promotional spots, West Brom and Stoke have their destiny in their own hands. The Baggies have a game in hand while Stoke are all but over the line if they can beat Bristol City this weekend. Watford have a reasonable draw remaining, Hull’s run home is a bit iffy but they have a game in hand and Bristol City have a tough final three games.

My heart says Bristol City and Watford because I win money, and with Sheffield Utd. storming home to win their remaining three matches and winning through in the playoffs.

My head says West Brom and Stoke with Watford going through the playoffs.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Punishment Post Part 3: Who I would select...

Having seen likely sides if left in the hands of a) a bunch of old guys who would prefer to play bridge b) Phil headline Gould, lets see what the NSW team should ACTUALLY look like.

1. Brett Stewart. Mini is a good player who would be a real strength for NSW so I would have no arguments if that is the way the selectors go. I love Hodgson as well but I can make no guarantees as to his durability these days. Brett Stewart was outshined by Billy Slater on Friday night - ALLEGEDLY. Brett Stewart's game as a fullback - is going to be governed by how well his team plays. If he spends the night under pressure, he won't shine - but neither will Billy Slater. The media and their praise of Slater went way too far based on Friday's game. Even after Friday's game, lets have a look at the numbers shall we:

Slater - Linebreaks 6, Tackle Busts 28, Tries 6, Try Assists 2, Tackles 43, Missed Tackles 11, Errors 6.

Stewart - Linebreaks 5, Tackle Busts 29, Tries 4, Try Assists 2, Tackles 37, Missed Tackles 9, Errors 5.

So Stewart and Slater have almost identical numbers - one playing for the best team in the comp and one playing for Manly. not as cut and dried as Gould would have you believe.
Anyway, I am meant to be picking an origin side not ranting about the media's coverage of Slater versus Stewart so anyway...

Wingers: Does it really matter?? A rant about clubs who go out and spend actual salary cap money on wingers is long overdue for this website, but lets say Hayne and El Masri here. Was tempted to pick Grothe but I watch him come in far too often on 2 on 2 plays and you can't do that at origin level, can you Phil?

PG: You can't do that at origin level. You aren't an ORIGIN PLAYER.

Thanks Phil.

Centres: Gasnier and Chris Lawrence. There is a high likelihood that Cooper will get one spot and that just sucks. Lawrence is a machine who might suffer if the Tigers continue to shit the bed but I think he needs to be picked.

Halves: Braith Anasta has played a lot of origin games. Here is the first one he has earned.
At 7, you have Gus and his column to read. I read it. I feel dumber. I read it and I went to the Rooty Hill RSL and threw my rent money on the poker machines. Then I called 'Today Tonight' and complained that the Rooty Hill RSL is to blame for me being kicked out of my house. Then I found I had 9 kids and we had to move out onto the street. That's what Gus Gould can do to your state of mind. Anyway, I like Todd Carney****, described by Gould as 'too loose.' You should know.

*** NSW selectors don't watch Canberra games, see Tongue, Alan.

Props: Shane Webcke, the only Bronco that I ever liked made me realise one thing about Props in origin. Big, slow ones do not work at this level. Sorry Mark O' Meley. Sorry Todd Payton. Luke Bailey and Willie Mason your starters as they are mobile enough to not get destroyed.

Backrow: Gallen, Bird and Hindmarsh. The Frank is good enough but a pig of a man.

Hooker: Farah. How can it not be Farah???

Bench: Another mobile prop... Luke Stuart anyone?? Heighington and Watmough and my Bolter for the last bench spot - Liam Fulton.

Why Liam Fulton?? Flexibility to play as a workhorse in the backrow, can be a subsitute dummy half and cover some positions in the outside backs. Having a Kurt Gidley instead shows little confidence in Carney as your playmaker and that may not be the best idea...

Punishment post: Part 2 - the NSW selection meeting

Bob McCarthy: Ah gentlemen, you are here. Let's play BRIDGE!

Furner: We are here to select the origin side.

Bob McCarthy: Then Bridge?

Furner: Of Course...

BM: Bully!

Furner: Let's make this quick, Bridge awaits. Who did we pick last year?

1. Brett Stewart 2. Hazem El Masri 3. Matt King 4. Matt Cooper 5. Jarryd Hayne 6. Greg Bird 7. Brett Kimmorley 8. Brent Kite 9. Danny Buderus (c)10. Willie Mason11. Nathan Hindmarsh 12. Andrew Ryan13. Paul Gallen14. Luke Bailey15. Steve Simpson 16. Ryan Hoffman 17. Kurt Gidley

BM: Matt King is overseas so we will go with Gasnier.

Furner: God Reg can play.

BM: No, Mark.. Reg's son.

Furner: God I am old.

BM: Tried and true. Stick to what works. Let's play bridge!!!!!

Punishment Post... NSW origin team

Having copped a worse pounding than Omaha Beach by JB in the most recent bet-off, I have been set the task of picking a NSW origin team. I have to pick three teams, one that I would pick myself, one as picked by 'We'll have a bowl' favourite Phil Gould, and one that the old men of the NSW selection table would pick. It's a lot of work but JB won a lot of money so lets get started. I will open with the Phil Gould invitational XVII.




Phil Gould:

Hi, its Phil Gould here, ready to pick a side that will roll QLD in the origin series this year. Lots of tough selection battles ahead so lets get into it.

At fullback, it is a race between Brett Stewart, Brett Hodgson and Anthony Minichello. I want to go on record as saying I don't rate Brett Stewart. In the Grand Final rematch against the Storm he was outplayed by Billy Slater. That was the only reason that Melbourne won. I think Brett Hodgson is in a coma still so that leaves my old Roosters buddy the cello as your NSW fullback.

On the wings, Amos Roberts is a matchwinner. He scores tries and sometimes lets just as many tries in. So he is going to win the match for someone. And as much as I despise Parramatta you have to give Hayne the other wing.

In the centres it has been laughable just how little ball Mark Gasnier has gotten in his games for the Dragons this year. Not his fault at all. I blame Nathan Brown and I was instrumental behind closed doors making sure he got the sack from the Dragons. Let that be known. I am a big wheel . When I say something it happens. You know that is how it is. So I say Gasnier must play and there are not enough Roosters in the side at this point. NSW are kidding themselves if you can't put a league jersey on Ryan Cross for three nights. Tell me why you can't play union in WA and league for NSW??

Braith Anasta in the 5/8 jersey. First Picked. Most likely to get blown by me after the game. Win-Win...Win.

Halfback. I have written extensively on this subject. As I said there, it is all Brett Finch. Former Rooster, beautiful flowing blond hair. Guys like this excite me.

Props: Need to pick three... Your new Roosters Mason and O'Meley must start. Apparently Luke bailey is a decent player, but not the kind of guy you want on your team. Other guy you have to pick here is Anthony Tupou.

In the backrow, you have to say Anthony Laffranchi is the first picked. The newspapers confirmed he didn't do anything illegal. He simply put a girls hand on his johnson and who hasn't done that before. When I interviewed Sonny Bill the other week, could you see his hands??? I think not. It is a natural male urge and fuck you for judging me or the Frank. Ben Ikin was saying you have to pick Gallen and Bird, and I am not saying they are not guys you want on your team, but how do you make room for Fitzgibbon and SONNY FUCKING BILL if you pick them. I will fill the paperwork out to make it happen, Sonny Bill will play.

Hooker.. Farah versus Buderus. Two very unsexy men. Neither of them wear the tricolours.. you think I care who wins this battle? I don't. Buderus because I think he is a gritty matchwinner. Farah played for Lebanon so I can't see how you can play for Lebanon and NSW unless you are Sonny-Bill-Hot!

Two bench spots left. I will pick Kurt Gidley and Ricky Stuart. You can't tell me that Ricky can't play better off the bench than the other clowns vying for the NSW halves spots!

You know what it takes to get back in front!

My tips and leads have been weak.
You know what it takes to get back in front. It takes brass balls to get back in front. A-B-C: Always be closing! Fuck or walk week. No more diversification, it is one $50 bet on the slipper this week.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Bulldogs seek answers: Go on bonding trip to Coffs Harbour

Bulldogs coach Steve Folks, stunned by his teams inept performances against the Roosters and then in New Zealand on the weekend was strangely upbeat this morning. 'The leadership group came to me in New Zealand and told me they had planned a bonding excursion to Coffs straight after the game.' Folks told reporters today. Apparently it was a success, 'the boys were a little frazzled at training today, but geez they put in for each other.'



According to an unnamed Bulldog, the trip was about having each others back. 'If you have pulled a train with the bloke next to you in the defensive line, you trust him.' The admission raised some eyebrows but Folks said it was about getting back to the glory days of the Bulldogs. 'This is old school Bulldogs stuff. Noone does it better than us.' The same unnamed Bulldog continues: 'You have no idea how much pressure the cops put on you to talk. Lie to a detective for a mate. See what that does to team morale. You'll lie for me, I know you will slide when you need to slide, or go up and in when you need to go up and in.' The Bulldogs have a game at home against the dragons on Saturday night. The Dragons had better bring their "a-game" because the Bulldogs will be firing if their bonding trip has been a success.

The tally...

Think the captain came out +31,
I came out -7
and JB wins again with + 51...

Crap. The end of season tally has JB + 76, me on -31 and the Captain on -19...

JB post your punishment post ideas in the next couple. Damn.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Let it be noted...

Final MaxiDiv price for Zarita's glorious SA Derby victory was $2.70. She can run well in the Cups this one. Tonka tough.