Matthew Johns Sacked By Nine

I'm not going to go into the gory details here...type the word "gangbang" into Google if you need some more information. But my concern over Johns' sacking is the probability of more Ikin and overdose quantities of Gould and Voss. Does this mean that Ikin will join the Footy Show panel? Or Gould? The show's made bad enough by Voss, a man who never played any Rugby League of note, and his ridiculous statements. I played Rugby League until I was around 8, am an affable type, and watch every game, every week too, but no-one from Channel Nine has come knocking at my door. Will Ikin be chiming in with even more bleedin' obvious comments during Friday Night Footy matches? "Look boys, the Cowboys are down by 14 with 10 minutes to go...it'd be fair to say they need to be the next to score"...Or will we all be overwhelmed by Gould and his barrage of "Yeah baby".

That's not a high tackle! No, no, no, no, no! Just let the boys play! Back in my day..."

Sure Gus, what do we need rules for, you fuckwit. Or will this all mean we get more of a gangbanger's druggy brother who can't string a sentence together? Honestly, Andrew Johns was a truly great player but he loved his drugs on a Saturday night, and his sideline comments border on autism. And Voss, just 10 secs alone with the man...my right boot vs his balls...oh yeah...

My point is that Channel Nine needs to completely overhaul their Rugby League coverage. It's insulting to viewers to keep dishing up this stuff on free-to-air. Matty Johns, whilst a gangbanger and adulterer, was the only guy on the Footy Show and in the commentary team (other than Rabs) who would make intelligent comments about Rugby League, when he wasn't being an assclown alter ego like Reg Reagan or Percy Le Blanc. But he's gone, along with the Chief, so it's time for a new direction, some new blood, maybe the NSW five eighth in waiting:

No NSW selectors, this is not Kurt Gidley playing out of position...

Australian Test Selections

After being dazed, confused and completely disorganised for a couple of weeks after a massive, brain-numbing Doncaster weekend, the Captain is back into the swing of things, WHAB style. I was somewhat perplexed when I saw the Australian Test line-up today. Mostly due to the fact that the only backline spot where NSW might have had a look in went to Darius Boyd! That is outrageous. Since when does leading the NRL in "most sideways metres" get you a Test jersey?! Or maybe it's because he is such a great finisher at Origin level with an open tryline after Greg Inglis has squashed a couple of would-be-tacklers and gifted him a saloon passage. I cannot fathom how Gallen has retained his spot. He is dishing up absolute rubbish playing for the NRL's shittest team. Anti-Thurstonites like myself are again left disappointed by his inclusion, despite form at club level that could be described as mediocre at best. Although I'm sure he'll somehow figure in Sportal's player of the year calculations again. The man can't seem to play these days unless Lockyer is holding his hand. At this point in time, I have no confidence whatsoever in him wearing the green and gold 7 jersey. Most of the selections are fair enough but another loss, and I will be calling for wholesale changes and Campese. Especially if he grows another sick mo' like this:

NSW five-eighth to be...

2008 Rugby League World Cup Champions...New Zealand?!

It doesn't really roll off the tongue does it?! Unbelievable result. The worst thing about the game was that other than Billy Slater's monumental faux pas and Joel Monaghan's moment of madness, I didn't think we played badly. I couldn't find any Australian player who had an average match. Maybe the lack of competitive matches for the Aussies can be blamed but the credit must go to the Kiwis who just kept hanging on. To the victors go the spoils:

New Zealand Rugby League team WAGS

I have three gripes from last night. The first was the sloppy Channel Nine commentary. For example, after a hundred replays, Sterlo, Gus and Rabs still hadn't figured out that Vatuvei's knee was clearly in touch and that the put-down was irrelevant. The second is the penalty try. I couldn't have given it as Slater was almost as close to the ball as Hohaia and could have dived for it as well. It wasn't a certain try for mine and I think it should have been a penalty and ten in the bin for Monaghan. My biggest issue with last night was the disgraceful decision to award the Man of the Match award to an Australian. Maybe they had already pre-picked hometown hero Lockyer, assuming a comfortable Kangaroos victory; whatever the reason, those responsible for giving it to a player on a team who lost by 14 points should be made to watch every Souths match with Russell Crowe for the rest of their lives wearing a Roosters jersey. "You wanna foight?!?!".

Well that concludes WHAB's Rugby League posts for the year. Manly crowned Premiers and the Kiwis taking out the World Cup...What a super year it's been!

"RL World Cup the greatest show on earth" - Gould.

Phil "Gus" Gould has declared that the Rugby League World Cup is the greatest sporting competition in the world in a candid interview with WHAB.

"What people don't take into account when comparing the RL World Cup to say the FIFA World Cup is that there are so many Europeans and South Americans and Asians that play the round ball. If the world's population consisted more of Lebanese, good Poly' boys and Papua New Guineans then we'd shit all over the round ball game," said Gould. His comments come on the back of the excitement and joy that was apparent in his call of the Australia vs PNG match.

"That was just great for the game. You couldn't watch that and say that any other code has a better product internationally. Sure other World Cups are more competitive but to see all the teams outside of Australia, New Zealand and England trying so hard is just so refreshing. The enthusiasm and dogged defense the Kumuls showed, and they even got across for a try! International Rugby League is alive and well people! Yeah baby!" declared Gould. He went on to say that he loved the spirit and culture of the Papua New Guinean people, even though he'd never been to their country and probably never would. "I think that with the right people at the helm, the Kumuls could conceivably win the World Cup in the next 8 or 12 years. Look out Australia! Yeah baby!". He also refused to rule out marrying a Papua New Guinean person one day.

Gould went on to stress that he never trys to pump up or over-hype potentially lop-sided games in a desperate quest for viewers. "Everyone loves an underdog and in Gouldian Theory, every team has a 50-50 chance when they take the field. Besides, it's not whether you win or lose but how you play the game. The scoreboard sometimes doesn't reflect the tightness of the contest. There's no I in team either. Strap yourself in for this one! Yeah baby!".

Football for Fags

Let me set the scene; it's Monday night, all the talk has been about how Manly are a much better team this year, your team is second on the ladder because of a bullshit Origin draw and you're playing the team that is being praised for having a super coach knowing deep down that the only reason they are in the top eight is because of the same ridiculous Origin draw that has robbed you of your top spot. I'm talking about the Storm v Dragons, so let's not dance around the issue, what's wrong with the biff?

For years you have had all those associated with the game crying out for more intensity, more rivalry and a lot more uppercuts to guys in a headlock. We finally see the sort of spark that was lacking in this season's lead up to the finals and we have the game doing all it can to distance itself from the first true bit of passion. My god do you remember the Channel Nine hype over SBW v Mason - what a flop. You can't manufacture the raw passion that fans of rugby league fell in love with. We finally get a taste of it and now it's all about how it brings the game into disrepute. I say it raises the game beyond the bar of professional sport that it is aiming for and takes the game to a higher more poetic and majestic level.

Billy Slater, don't apologise for coming to the aid of your teammates, don't shy away from the fact that when the shit was on you were there with your fists raised. The Folau try in the third origin was magic, but last Monday night's outpour of rage is what this game was founded on and what this game needed.

The Australian sporting landscape is an overcrowded nightclub; great when its full of talent, but an early night out when its nothing more than a sausage sizzle. If rugby league wants to be successful, then its not about keeping Murdoch happy it's about giving the fans something they can support passionately, and that only comes when the players are playing with passion, and the only passion I want between two blokes on the footy field is with their fists -pain and anger.

Thurston's Cracking 2008 Season

I was flabbergasted to read that Johnathon Thurston is leading another website's Player of the Year award. He must have been outstanding in the three wins the Cowboys have had in season 2008 and even more so in the 10 losses he's been involved in. Thurston, despite missing four games through Origin/injury, leads an impressive bunch including Greg Inglis and Billy Slater. His superhuman efforts haven't helped the Cowboys though; they sit 16th and last with the league's third worst attack.

The Worst Seven Game Winning Streak Ever...

After hearing doubtful suggestions around the traps that the St. George Dragons (formerly the St. George-Illawarra Dragons) can make the top four and ludicrous ones that they can win the premiership, I have felt it necessary to quash these foolish thoughts. For starters, the current squad appears hopelessly less talented than the 2005 squad. It must stand to reason then that if the 2005 squad were unable to even make the grand final then the 2008 Dragons are longshots. Yes they have won seven games on the trot but first, let's examine the opposition in that streak.

Win #1: Against a Storm outfit missing nine players and their coach on Origin duties, the Dragons lit up ANZ stadium in a six tries to two, 36-12 romp over the defending premiers. Well five of the defending premiers anyway...

Win #2: Although a very credible performance in winning 20-18 at Brookvale, I would suggest that this was the worst game of football between two sides in the top eight this season. With 13 handling errors apiece and a combined 86 missed tackles, you could be forgiven for thinking this was a battle of the cellar-dwellers.

Win #3: The Rabbitohs had won only once this season (against fellow wooden spoon contenders, the Cowboys) going into this match and were chopping and changing halves on a weekly basis leaving them without cohesion and good decision-making. Dean Widders was at five eighth for this one if you can believe that. Souths had no luck either in this match with the time-keeper sounding for half-time a minute early (when Souths had a full set inside the Dragons 20) and the Dragons also scoring off a charge-down. 26-12, not very convincing stuff.

Win #4: The Dragons showed their eagerness to beat up on teams missing multiple Origin players by defeating the "Baby Broncos" 28-10. They still managed to miss 38 tackles against a makeshift team who you would hardly say were dangerous in attack.

Win #5: After negotiating the bye, the Red V's were shown a thing or two about courage by the Panthers. Penrith were still right in this game until the end despite suffering multiple injuries throughout the match and finishing with only one player on the bench. The Dragons eked a 13-12 win in a match they should have won comfortably at home.

Win #6: Definitely one of the more impressive efforts in this streak, an away win against the Gold Coast. It must be noted however, that Scott Prince was out through injury. Nevertheless, a hard place to win a football game , Scott Prince or no. Dragons sneak home again 26-22.

Win #7: St.George downed the Knights on the road 24-16. The Knights are far from a formidable outfit though, despite decent early season form and currently lie in 11th place.

So there you have it. A pretty unremarkable seven game winning streak, all things considered. And perhaps I should have waited a week to write about the most unimpressive eight game winning streak ever instead. The Dragons are at home to the Raiders. Should win by 2-6 points and firm another couple of points in premiership markets...seriously, get on people!

And in the red corner...Ben Cross!

Ben Cross was one of NSW's best in the two State of Origin matches he played this year. The only down side to his game, according to WHAB "foighting" expert Russell Crowe, is "foighting".

"He's a good player but 'e can't foight!" exclaimed Crowe after the match. "I'm gonna take him 'round the world with me good mate Tugger 'n show 'im 'ow to foight!".

Cross was quoted as saying he would "rather sit through a week's worth of Master and Commander bloopers and out-takes than accompany that lunatic anywhere".

Tommy Raudonikis also suggested Cross needed to work on his technique. "He was just throwing punches at thin air. Then I think 'e was punchin' his own team-mate. I can see the kid's got heart but when the "cattledog" call comes out he's got no idea!".

The most damning report came from Canberra's Michael Weyman, considered to be the NRL's best biffer. "He's a top player and a top bloke but he'd get knocked out by a rabid chihuahua on that form!".

My final Origin thought till next year.

On hearing the unbelievable news that Thurston was "man of the series", apart from being speechless, I have taken the drastic step of naming WHAB's own Man Of The Series...Petero Civoniceva. If you think I'm off the mark, I suggest you find a tape of all three matches and watch them start to finish. If on the back of one run, beating a prop with a dummy, you could possibly entertain Thurston being "man of the series" then I suggest you are mentally retarded. Goodnight Australia.

State of Origin wrap

WHAB would like to congratulate QLD on winning the Origin series. At this juncture we will not mention referees, touch judges, selectors, hopeless players etc. There's no need to go into details, at the end of the day it was a tight series and simply, the aerial abilities of Inglis and Folau proved the difference in what was a very close Game III. We will just congratulate QLD on a job well done and hope NSW can come up with something in their two games at Suncorp next year.

Final thoughts for Origin III

I can't understand why you would contemplate starting Gidley instead of Stewart. Gidley was chosen as an alleged utility... and now our utility is Stewart? Whatever. I would definitely start Cross and bring Mason on after 15 mins or so. NSW should use Monaghan's magic hands and aerial ability to their advantage and play him on Tate. In Origin I, Quinn scored off a bomb and Tate was caught embarrassingly out of position. The kicking game is there with the Roosters halves...use it! And if Tate somehow emulates his Origin II fluke then I'll be the first to tip my hat to him. Leave Inglis to the defensively sound Cooper.

Hard to find any reason why QLD will change their starting line-up from Game II. Hunt will probably start again and be inspirational (?). Most fans realise that the forwards hold the key in any League match. The Blues pack went AWOL in the second match but bear in mind that the QLD pack was missing in action in the first. It seems the opposition packs in the first two games couldn't lift with the hostile crowds yelling out nasty things at them.

Enjoy the game people, may the best team win and may the referee be largely unnoticed. I'm off to the TAB to unload on NSW to win, Monaghan to score first try, and Pearce and Anasta for MOM...

State of Origin game III preview thread.

Well with State of Origin III kickoff just around the corner, now looks like a good time to preview what should be a great match.

NSW have rung the changes to the back line in particular. Injuries to Bird and Wallace have opened the door for the Roosters duo of Anasta and Pearce. Jarryd Hayne makes his return from injury and the injury to Mark Gasnier has opened the door for Joel Monaghan, a player who most believed should have been given a shot to fill Hayne's wing spot in game two.

In the forwards the return of Ben Cross is the only real change to game two's much maligned forward pack.

On the Queensland side, no change has been made to the team that decimated the Blues at Suncorp in game II 30-0.

Much talk is made of the Queensland side and its all international back line. However, running down the team sheets, much of their edge appears to be in the forwards. With the steadiest front row in the game: Price and Civoniceva, Queensland seem to have a real edge in this department. NSW countering with the often missing Willie Mason and Brett White - about whom the Professors jury is definitely out after game II. Until this morning,I had yet to read anything sensible out of the mouth/pen of Gorden Tallis, however his comments regarding the ability of Mason to go missing for extended periods when his side is in trouble is a valid point. Contrasting this to workhorses Civoniceva and Price and you see the problem that NSW could face if down early.

The back row is a decided advantage for NSW with Fitzgibbon, Hoffman, Laffranchi and Gallen and the potentially explosive play of Tupou.

Queensland may have one of the best paper combinations of halves seen at this level, and a trio of explosive men outside them in Slater, Inglis and Folau, however the combinations may not work at this level if Queensland are unable to establish the forward momentum that game II offered. NSW look steady in the backs with a pair of fine defensive centres and a potential future superstar in Pearce.

One area where NSW seem to have dropped the ball at the selection table is with automatic selection Kurt Gidley. In game I, Ben Hornby provided spark and utility value that was discarded with the return of Gidley. Gidley plays because he can cover myriad positions - 1,6,7 and 9. Hornby on the other hand plays 1,6,7, and 9 and can ably fill in in the centres. This is debatable, but the Professor would argue that Hornby plays ALL of these positions with more vigour than Gidley.

Tomorrow night marks the end of the Origin road for Danny Buderus. It is hoped that the often missing superstar Mason plays with a little more vigour based on that fact. I thought that Buderus had gone on for a season too long at this level but I was mistaken. Next year, I hope that one of the games most underrated players - Michael Ennis - gets his shot at Origin. Though it is almost certain that the selectors will pick the mercurial Robbie Farah.

This game could go either way. If Queensland win, I predict a cricket score, but if NSW win it will have to be a grind. The heart suggests $40 on NSW by 1-12 @ 3.55 and $5 each on Magic Monners to score first and last @$13 and @$14.

Enjoy the game!

Selectors Say: We understand nothing about Rugby League!!!!

The NSW team has been announced for State of Origin game III. I really don't even want to talk about it. It makes so little sense. I wrote strongly last week about the misconception that was getting tossed around in Rugby League circles last week that the NSW origin team's disastrous game II performance was to be laid squarely at the feet of Wallace and Bird.

Blues: Brett Stewart, Jarryd Hayne, Joel Monaghan, Matt Cooper, Anthony Quinn, Braith Anasta, Mitchell Pearce, Willie Mason, Danny Buderus (capt), Brett White, Craig Fitzgibbon, Ryan Hoffman, Paul Gallen. Interchange: Kurt Gidley, Anthony Laffranchi, Ben Cross, Anthony Tupou.

I understand that the changes in the halves were enforced. I have no arguments with the halves combination chosen. I like Carney a little more than Pearce at this stage, but I am glad the selectors did not revert to an Orford, Kimmorley or Finch.

Nothing has been done to address the massive weakness that the Blues had in game II - that is the engine room. Here is a list of guys that I would have considered to start the game in the 8/10 shirts for the Blues in game three:

Jason Ryles

Luke Bailey

Josh Perry (Has been shockingly good this year)

Maybe just working one of these three into the side. Preferably TWO. Actual, real PROPS.

Beyond that, Gidley must have played himself out of an origin spot in game II. I have never understood the utility that he brings. Below average cover at 1,6,7,9???? Want some spark out of Dummy half??? Pick Ennis. The damage that Ennis could do against a tiring forward pack would be far superior to Gidley's alleged utility.

The selectors have used the injuries to Wallace and Bird to avoid making real significant changes to address the area that went wrong in game two.

Friday night football preview: Penrith v St George

Tonight, the Dragons play the Panthers in a pretty crucial game for both sides. The Dragons are fresh off four wins on the trot, whilst Penrith have been mixing their form of late. 

Anyway, how the two teams will line up tonight is kind of anybodies guess, with the Sydney press predicting Matt Elliot to bring in some serious youth for tonight's contest.  The official teams at this stage look like this:

Penrith: Wesser, Rooney, Jennings, Tighe, Sammut, Blair, Lewis, Bell, Peters, Civoneciva, Pritchard, Waterhouse, Smith [Aiton, Grant, Moors, Rodney]

St George: Morris, Nightingale, Gasnier, Cooper, Morris, Soward, Hornby, Poore, Young, Ryles, Scott, Creagh, Webb [Setu, Hunt, Stanley, Chase]

From the Panthers, word is that there will be a few changes to the current side, Aiton is likely out to be replaced with teenage wunderkind Masada Iosefa. Tony Puletua could return and would likely displace Moors. Finally, another potential superstar from the junior ranks Wade Graham could make his long awaited debut in place of Blair. 

From the Dragons side of things there is not a lot of news. No news being great for them all players are passed to play.

The dragons are winners of their last four starts. And for that reason they have come up pretty short in this contest at $1.33. (N.B. The Dragons have started favourite in every game since 1988. Check it, it's a FACT) If you have a look at those four wins though, it has been a fairly motley group that they have beaten. Melbourne without their 46 origin players. Brisbane without the 32 origin players*, South Sydney without all of their origin players. One solid win came against Manly.  Though the Manly side that week played with 12 men. In one of the greatest pieces of ineptitude ever to come out of a coaching box, Anthony Watmough played 80 straight minutes of this game - 75 of these with a massive concussion. Des Hasler doesn't change his game plan for something as minor as a life threatening medical condition.

Also remember that the Dragons will be without the greatest player of the modern era "DEL" this week. His badly dismembered face has meant that he cannot play football, model, or ingest cocaine in the manner of his choosing. Bad time to be DEL!

The Panthers were terrible last week against the Roosters. To some extent that can be forgiven by the fact that most of that game Penrith carried a one man bench. Otherwise, there have been some serious signs of life in Penrith this year, and the infusion of youth could be critical. 

Anyway, there is an axiom in regards to my punting on football. Never back St George at odds like those on offer here. The St George hype machine is back in full force. Don't buy into it.

Penrith will cause the St George outside backs nightmares down the Jennings/Rooney flank as both of these players have hit some very solid form. As such, I will throw $50 on a Panthers win at $3.40 and $50 on a Rooney try at $2.25.

You can catch this game in NSW live at 7:30 on channel 9. Things to watch out for in the telecast:

1) Gould's man love for Ben Creagh and its ability to make you physically ill.

2) Gould going on FOR HOURS about how unfair it is that Nathan Brown has lost his job for next year and is still coaching. 

3) The Broncos are playing tonight. Lucky you, no Ben Ikin!

Assigning blame properly: Also known as the Orford/Kimmorley Paradigm

Listening to some very interesting debate on ABC before the Tigers v Eels game yesterday, with Phil Gould chatting to Warren Ryan about the inept Blues performance in game 2 of the State of Origin series.

The blame for the performance was attributed by these two as follows:

Gould:

- The referee

- Wallace

- Bird

Ryan:

- The front row

Phil Gould presented an argument that went along the lines of: Wallace and Bird are not playmakers. Thus, when the pack is not going forward, they are unable to make plays. The referee is somehow to blame for the packs inability to go forward. The solution is to somehow change the referee and to replace Bird and Wallace with Anasta and Finch. That is the best that I can do.

Ryan suggested that Gould misplaced the blame to some extent. He agreed that Bird was potentially an inadequate 5/8, but suggested that no halves combination had the power to change the result from that game - rather, the front row's lack of metres was the factor that should be addressed. The main focus of Ryan's selection discussion was to bring in Ryles and Bailey at the expense of White/Simpson. Bird's position seemed to Ryan to be somewhat shaky as well.

When Gould is presented, and presents himself as the premiere mind in league, it angers me. Particularly when I listen to drivel like what I listened to yesterday. There is no axiom more basic in Rugby League than what I have coined the "Orford/Kimmorley Paradigm." The paradigm argues that halves are completely a function of the forward packs that they toil behind. (**Data forthcoming) The reasoning behind choosing Orford and Kimmorley as the fathers of this paradigm, was there unbelievable success behind the feared Melbourne pack. Both parlayed that success into lucrative contracts at other clubs. Buyer beware. Kimmorley, as useful as he has been since, has never had he same impact. Orford likewise.

Gould seems to overrate the responsibility of halves. And to me this speaks of lazy analysis. Regardless of a teams problems - a loss is placed squarely at the feet of the 6/7. If we want to delve deeper, lets add the 1 & 9 to that mix. For someone who gets paid to analyse Rugby League, it seems fair that we could expect more than knowledge of four players from most teams.

If you want to lay the blame for NSW's thumping in the 2nd game somewhere, try the go-forward. For the sake of mobility, NSW completely abandoned a big front row. This reflected badly on the halves. You may argue that Bird is not a skillful number 6 (and I might agree with you) but you need to start with analysing more than four players. NSW need to go BIGGER for Origin three. Until changes are made there, bringing in Anasta and Finch will be putting lipstick on a pig.

Origin II Reflections

* I woke up the morning after Origin II and after a solid breakfast of 8 panadols I thought to myself (not for the first time) "Did Steve Simpson play last night?".

* Tony Archer; the Hometown Hero. A terrible performance dictated by the home crowd. Even parochial QLDer's would have to ask why this dipshit awarded 16 penalties in an Origin match. Watching the Hannant try I correctly predicted it would be Refs Call and that Archer would give it a try. There was nothing surer. And once again the douchebag referees boss Robert Finch refuses to acknowledge the ineptitude of one of his bum-chums.

* Gasnier and Turner in defence... you all watched the match, that's all I really need to say.

* I've watched a lot of Rugby League but I can't remember watching a team that never even remotely looked like scoring as was the case with NSW.

* They were so bad they made Brent Tate look awesome, Incurable Neckitis and all.

* Willie Mason should be bound, gagged, locked in a vault and fed sedatives up until just before kickoff for Origin III lest the stupid bastard be tempted to shoot his mouth off again.

* And Queensland...it's only 1-1. You ain't won shit yet. Especially if the Hometown Hero gets the gig for Origin III.

***The author wishes to inform readers that he was absolutely hammered on Origin night and recollections may be hazy***

State of Origin II: Preview Thread

With State of Origin II kicking off tonight, lets have a quick look at how tonights contest shapes up:

QLD
1. B. Slater
2. D. Boyd
3. G. Inglis
4. B. Tate
5. I. Folau
7. S. Prince
6. J. Thurston
8. S. Price
9. C. Smith
10. P. Civoniceva
11. M. Crocker
12. S. Thaiday
13. D. Johnson

Int:
14. B. Hannant
15. K. Hunt
16. N. Myles
17. A. Harrison

NSW:
1. B. Stewart
2. S. Turner
3. M. Gasnier
4. M. Cooper
5. A. Quinn
6. G. Bird
7. P. Wallace
8. B. White
9. D. Buderus
10. C. Fitzgibbon
11. W. Mason
12. R. Hoffman
13. P. Gallen

Int:
14. A. Laffranchi
15. A. Tupou
16. K. Gidley
17. S. Simpson

NSW won the first game fairly convincingly. However game II looks like a more difficult proposition, based on the team changes made by both teams and on the move to the Fortress formerly known as Lang Park. QLD have brought in Prince for Karmichael Hunt Darren Lockyer PJ Marsh. This is a massive impact on the team, having a superior playmaker partnered with Thurston. The utility of picking Hunt on the bench must be questioned, as his selection in game one was questioned. Surely Marsh, or a specialist interchange player at origin level such as Bowen would give NSW more concerns. More bad news for NSW is the return of Steve Price. Carl Webb, an inexplicable selection in the Australian team but weeks ago makes way.

The great news selection for the Blues is the suspension of Justin Hodges. This shifts Tate in to the centres (hurrah!) and drafts in Darius Boyd. Whilst I will never complain about a Tate selection from the standpoint of a biased NSW fan, it must be wondered what he holds over the QLD selectors (See the poll on the top right of the page!) Lillyman out, Harrison in. 8 minutes of unspectacular football replaced by 8 minutes of unspectacular football. I always wonder about the 17th man selection by Queensland... is there some sort of pride factor in picking a side with only 16 players in it???

For NSW, Hayne, Cross and Hornby make way for Turner, Simpson and Gidley. The Turner and Gidley changes should provide little change from game 1. The Simpson change is a headscratcher. Are there no other props in NSW??? The Captain I know would have gone with Todd Payten. I could have lived with that. The *best* thing that comes out of the Simpson selection is that it gives a new guy to fill the role of Laffranchi in game II. Laffranchi in game one was spectacular when he was on the field, but saw far too few minutes. Hopefully that role (lack of minutes) falls to Simpson in game II. In fact, Laffranchi wins the "Wes Mantooth Award" for his game I performance.

* Note the Wes Mantooth Award is given to Sportsmen who dazzled us with their play. But deserved far bigger roles. Seriously, Anchorman is my favourite movie but how much better would it have been with MORE MANTOOTH! It runs for something like 90 minutes. Make it 92 minutes and lets see Wes present the news or something. At least in a deleted scene. Also, why can't they make Anchorman 2 and save Will Farrell from himself.

I think NSW are a good chance here. The backline of Queensland just looks 209% worse when Tate is in the centres. And the Queensland bench is bereft of impact. If NSW can stay close for the first hour, I think it could come down to the benches. And there NSW is a clear winner. If you are betting, take QLD by 13+ and NSW by 0-12. Either NSW get blown away early or win a close one. I will just take the second option as I don't have the heart to back QLD.

Anyway, that's all I've got on Origin 2. I will be cranking up some Roy and HG, getting some sweet seafood and beering on.

No laughing stock post today, eh JB??? You saw how that went last time.

NRL parity: Why the Salary Cap is a flawed system.

Whenever parity or clubs being under financial pressure is discussed, the NRL talking heads (led by Dennis Fitzgerald) rehash the same arguments. Raise the salary cap. Lower the salary cap. As chief executives or media personalities, this appears to show minimal imagination and economic nous for people in the high profile roles that they enjoy. First I intend to show the flaws in the current structure, and then I aim to outline a counter strategy designed at providing some parity in the game. Unlike most of my posts, there will be an element of seriousness.


Anyway, to the current system. Lets look at the finalists for the past five years. Many of the games talking heads make a lot of the fact that of the 16 teams currently playing in the NRL, only the Gold Coast, in their second year of playing - have made the finals at least once in the past 5 seasons. This does not account for the fact that South Sydney, Cronulla and the Tigers have made just one appearance, compared to the 5 trips made by Melbourne and Brisbane. What is a far more revealing indicator of a lack of parity, look at the average table positions for the 16 teams over the past five years.



Melbourne: 3.6
Brisbane & Canterbury: 5
North QLD, Parramatta, St George, Sydney: 7
Manly: 8
Penrith, Canberra, NZ, Tigers: 9
Cronulla, Newcastle: 10
Souths: 11
Gold Coast: 12.


Taking Gold Coast out of the equation, the differential between the top and the bottom is astounding for a game that preaches parity and assures that the salary cap has created this. Moreover, we can conclude that the notion of many teams making the finals is a flawed manner to grade the current system in terms of parity. It is clear that average/below average teams can make the final 8. Looking at the results from the 1v8 and 2v7 finals in the past five years gives us:


Top seed wins: 9
Bottom seed wins: 1
Average Winning Margin by top seed: 20.3


So, the only upset in this round was by the red-hot Cowboys in 2004. The average winning margin at greater than 20 points makes this clear that the notion of a finals appearance is no measure of parity.


So what to do about parity???


There are a number of complementary regulations that I would advocate in order to achieve parity or competitive balance. Lets start with the removal of the salary cap in favour of a "soft cap."


The Soft Cap:

Spend what you want!! At least in theory. You have a lot of financial resources at your club. Fine. Spend away. However, once you reach some salary figure, you pay a tax on your payroll. Say you have a cap of $2M. Spend $4M and you pay 50% of your excess payroll into a fund that gets distributed amongst poorer clubs. This ensures that clubs with limited resources stay viable. Also means that if you want to spend your way to a premiership, it hurts a lot more. The abolition of the salary cap as a hard cap allows players to be paid a figure closer to their market value. Yes, this figure is distorted by a tax. However, the distortion is less than under a price ceiling.

Free agent compensation:

Lets start with a basic and obvious change. No midseason deals on free-agents-to-be. The club that owns the rights to a player, controls that player until the end of the season. Letting a player sign elsewhere halfway through a season has no parrelels in the sporting world.

Onto the notion of free agent compensation. If you control your player until the end of the year, you should get something for him if he leaves. This is a response to the widely held view that clubs see their own developed prospects leave for other clubs after the club spends a lot of time and money on their development.

At the moment, it can be argued that clubs are actually being offered a disincentive to develop their juniors. This would need to be addressed.

Under the Compensation scenario, if a club loses one of its free agents to another club, that club is compensated by picking up a player from the signing club (outside the signing clubs top 25). Again, this compensates the club for the resources spent on developing a young player. Obviously, tiers of free agents would need to be agreed upon. For example, a club that signs a mediocre free agent would have to only offer a restricted list of juniors/reserve graders to choose from. Otherwise, second tier players would be disadvantaged. However, signing a marquee free agent would expose your best youngsters. This would shift the demand for free agents leftwards - so whilst players would feel that the abolition of the salary cap would pay them market value - the combination of leftward shift (due to the tax) and the further shift (due to the opportunity cost of signing players) could actually depress players wages!!!

The final complementary policy that would need to be worked in would be a draft of junior players. Much of the dominance of Melbourne and Brisbane can be put down to their ability to sign young players. A draft that worked in reverse order of standings (similar to the AFL model) would benefit the parity debate greatly.

ORIGIN II TEAM CHANGES

Whenever I watch an Origin match that features Steve Simpson I always become confused immediately following the game; "Was Simpson really playing? Came on for the last 10 minutes? Maybe that's why I didn't notice him...no, he started? Really?". I cannot believe this man keeps getting picked for NSW. Especially when the Blues have lost a starting front rower; replacing him with a second rower who disappears for large passages of play is surely a bad move. On the upside for Blues fans, Brent Tate is moving to the centres to cover for the suspended Hodges. That could well spell disaster for the Maroons. With the axing of Lilyman, Tate will be the worst-performed player of 2008 on the field at Suncorp Stadium. QLD do get back Lockyer which is obviously great news but will he get through the match? I have a query on his fitness, and have no doubt the Blues forwards will use him as a speedbump, but after the ludicrous selection of Hunt for the first match this was very much a necessary gamble. I have to ask, why is Hunt still in the side over Prince? Picking a fullback for the utility position is completely retarded. There are two possible explanations. Either Prince has slept with one or more of the selector's wives or Hunt has slept with one or more of the selectors. Gidley comes in as a straight swap for Hornby which was on the cards. Utility for utility. The Blues selectors seem to understand the concept. Obviously Cameron Smith is playing the full 80 minutes at dummy half in this one. In other changes, an underdone Steven Price is always a better Origin option than an overweight Carl Webb and anyone (Ashley Harrison in this case) is better than Lilyman. Joel "Magic Hands" Monaghan is on standby for either Gasnier or Hayne. More on Origin II to follow closer to the match.

Where did the Bears go?

Yes they played boring football with uninspiring halves such as Greg Florimo and Jason Taylor, yes they actually payed Brett "the fans have voted you as the biggest ball sucker to ever play" Dallas, yes they were responsible for Ben Ikin, yes their best players were second string Queensland heroes such as Martin Bella, Gary Larson, Billy Moore and the aforementioned Dallas and Ikin - but where did the North Sydney Bears go?

Well after a short lived and ill-fated merger with Manly they dissolved. To many, Manly agreed to the merger without any true intention of succesfully integrating with their long time regional rivals. They pocketed the merger money that was on the table and then left them high and dry 3 years later.

With many Sydney clubs now in financial distress (go on Matthew Johns blame the government -you're weak as piss) the move to the central coast of NSW is back on the cards with an $8 million dollar reward from the NRL for the club that goes. This was once the home (one of two - the other being Brookvale) of the Northern Eagles, the merged club between Manly and Norths.

As Brookvale continues to crumble and the Central Coast Mariners prove them wrong for not giving it a better go earlier, it appears that all Sydney clubs would rather be pushed than persuaded into making the move to the central coast now.

With Holmes a Court leaving Russell to deal with creditors over at the Rabbitohs, Parramatta unable to inspire their players to take a pay cut to save their bank balance, the Tigers in the midst of a development nightmare and with Wests more than willing to take over the NRL license Manly style, the Dragons are proving that no one wins on the pokies. Manly look all but safe thanks mainly due to a $20 million handout expected from the NSW state government.

So which clubs should go? Should the decision be purely financial? Or does history and geography come into play? From the last round of club carnage, the NRL took no notice of history when letting the North Sydney Bears fold nor took any notice of geographical boundaries, with Cronulla emerging as a small island engulfed by the new St George-Illawarra Club. Economically, surely those clubs that aren't financially viable or, more acurately, hung their futures on the back of the pokies, have a tough case to argue that they should remain at the potential expense of those clubs that focused on high game attandances/a solid fan base/high membership and smart sponsorship arrangements.

The strangest thing to come out of all this is that players don't want to play at ANZ Stadium because its empty. Well this just about sums it up, people aren't going to the games and for too long the fans have been given the arse over those who play the pokies. The math is simple, you neglect your fans you lose the club.

It would be easier to start again than reduce 8 (9 including Penrith) Sydney based teams down to the more realistic 4 /5 clubs that Sydney can support. For example there are only 9 london teams that have ever played in the EPL (Arsenal, Charlton Athletic, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Queens Park Rangers, Tottenham, West Ham and Wimbledon) with Wimbledon FC being forced out of London in 2003-04. If a population close to 8 million can't support 9 teams in their first division than I don't think a city the size of Sydney can.

I would prepose a simple East, West, North and South arangement plus Penrith and lets be honest Penrith is nowhere near Sydney. You mountaineers have to be joking when you say you live in Sydney, you live in the sticks - isn't that right Professor, can I have another ass pudding Mr. Girdler? But seriously, I think a strong geographic recognition has to be the starting point. I would just simply establish the borders on a map and issue one licence for each quadrant and all clubs within that quadrant would then need to battle/merge with each other or relocate in order to play in the NRL. Simplistic? Yes, but at the end of the day, nothing can be said to console the supporters of the club that goes and nothing can be done to reverse the poor managerial decisions of those clubs that are now facing the axe.