Top 8 predictions

Well as the season end draws near and finals footy is already on the minds and tongues of most, I give you JBs top 8 predictions and finals fairytales. The NRL has a ladder predictor and having gone through a few scenarios and taking into account occasional shocks I can't go past a top 8 that looks like this:

1. Dragons
They really don't have to do that much to secure minor premiership. Their path to the finals sees them play Storm, Broncos and Eels at home and Panthers, Raiders and Rabbitohs on the road. All in all they have their arguably tougher games at home and apart from the Storm game at home and the Panthers on the road, the Dragons have all but captured the top spot. Even if they were to drop two out of thier last 6 the 4 point start they already have on the Bulldogs would be enough.

2. Bulldogs
A team that deserves the position given the football they have played all year, hat off to super coach . Remaining home games against the Raiders, Roosters and Warriors with away games to Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Tigers will see the Dogs come up against several teams who will be playing with everything they have to make the 8. In particular the away game to Cowboys will basically determine the chances of the Cowboys and second spot for the Dogs. I'm going to say the Dogs can do it up at Dairy Farmers with the Cowboys bumped out of top 8 - big game!

3.Storm
Away to the Dragons, Knights and the Warriors and home to the Roosters, Sea Eagles and Cowboys sees the storm with plenty of work to do if they want to secure a top 4 finish. Probably one of the harder runs to pick but going to go out and say that they will go down to the Dragons but be too good for the Cowboys, Knights and Sea Eagles, Roosters and Warriors. A loss to the Cowboys will see the Cowboys scrape into the top 8 but if they can't hold it against the Knights and Sea Eagles then both the will leap frog them into a possible final 4. I'm betting that the very rehearsed playbook of the Storm will see them hold their nerve and hold out the hopefuls.

4. Titans
I like the look of this football team, big questions (as was the case last year) regarding depth but I think they have developed and matured into a full squad. Can't see them not making the top 8 but will have to work on it to get into the top 4. Away to Dragons, Warriors, Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles, with home games to Sharks and West Tigers. Pretty sure they will go down to the Dragons, Sea Eagles and even Warriors on the road. But even with a factored in loss to the Cowboys at home, the Titans will make 4th all theirs.

5. Sea Eagles
Personally, this is a team that I want to see hurt and left dwelling in the cellars for years to come. Away to the Tigers, Roosters and Storm with home games to the Rabbitohs, Sharks and Titans makes me think that they will fly into the top 8. Predictable wins over the Tigers, Rabbitohs, Roosters and Sharks. Two danger games against the Titans and Storm with my prediction the Eagles to split their luck going down to the Storm on the road and a win over the Tits at home.

6. Knights
Not in my 8 at the start of the year but all in all worthy holders of a spot in the 8. They face the Roosters, Storm, Cowboys and Panthers at home with the Eels and Raiders away. W's over the Panthers and Cowboys put down to the home advantage. Also putting down wins against the Roosters, Eels and Raiders. The loss to the Storm the only hiccup predicted for this team on the way to glory.

7. Broncos
Need the wounded back and back pretty soon to be any chance but they do have talent to make it if they can play. Path to the finals includes away games to the Raiders, Dragons and Cowboys with home games to Sharks, Panthers and Raiders. Look I'm not going to say there isn't a degree of risk with this 8 and in particular this selection. I'm not sure the Broncs can win next week against the Raiders at home let alone the run they need to secure the top 8. I have them dropping next weeks game to the Raiders on the road, turning it around at home against the Sharks. A win at home against the Panthers will see them make 7th, a loss and they're doing it tough. No doubt they will go down to the Dragons, but a tough win over the Cowboys on the road and a home win over the Raiders will make the comeback complete for this team that is all but down and out at the moment.

8. Panthers
I'm sure that the Professor will tell me all about the Panthers chances and that the 8th spot is the worst they will finish but I've done the math. The most likely alternate ending to this line up in my mind is the panthers at 7th and Cowboys and Broncs fighting for 8th. Panthers have a win against the Warriors at home, a loss to the Dragons at home, a loss to the Broncos away, a win against the Bunnies at home, a loss to the Eels away and another loss to the Knights away. Plenty of games that the Panthers could win but I like it the way I have called it.

Points difference to determine final standings as usual but pretty confident on the line up as you see them here. The finals as I see it unfolding is:

Titans (w) v Sea Eagles
Storm (w) v Knights
Bulldogs (w) v Broncos
Dragons (w) v Panthers

Semi finals
Titans (w) v Knights
Storm (w) v Sea Eagles

Pre-lim finals
Bulldogs (w) v Storm
Dragons v Titans (w)

grand final
Bulldogs v Titans

To be honest the Dragons deserve to win the title but Titans on their day are one team that can un-do the dream and bring on more cries of serial chokers.

Well you heard it hear first Dogs v Titans final!

NRL PRELIMINARY FINALS

Sharks vs Storm

After a miracle last-gasp loss, followed by a miracle last-gasp win, the Storm have now lost their captain Cameron Smith. A suspension was fair enough but the NRL can jam their loading system up their ass. Moving on, the Sharks have lost five eighth Brett Seymour, which could be almost on par with Melbourne's loss of Smith. Seymour has been the perfect fit for the Sharks at 6 and I think he'll be missed more than most realise. Thinking back to Major Turdler's stats, I tend to think that the week off won't help the Sharks. A lot of punters are labelling the Storm as vulnerable at the moment...others are just waiting for them to turn it on like we all know they can. We'll find out tonight. Sorry long-suffering Sharks fans, but I'm tipping the Storm.

Sea-Eagles vs Warriors

Rabs: "Welcome to Brookvale Oval, on this lovely evening, as the Sea-Eagles of Manly take on the sheep-shaggers from across the ditch, in the New Zealand Warriors". Ram-rooters or no, the Warriors are the worst possible match-up for Manly after their week off. NZ are on a roll; and try telling Price and Wiki that they can't win this game. The battle up front should be one of the highlights of the season. I hear a lot of people tipping Manly to go on to win the premiership and I hear a lot of their fans talking it up, almost cocky. The should look no further than this. Having myself a piece of the Warriors at $3.15.

A Message To The Referees And Touch Judges

Yeah, I'm talkin' to you.

I don't want to notice you. Stay the fuck out of the game unless it's absolutely necessary to involve yourself. Let it flow you homos.

Why don't you give him 10 in the bin for that too, you douchebag?

Should be two of the season's best contests. Fuck I love footy finals!

THE WEEKEND'S FINALS FOOTY

NRL

WARRIORS vs ROOSTERS

After their miraculous victory over the Storm, Kiwi fans have once again jumped on the Warriors bandwagon, just as they did during their grand final run of 2002. During the regular season, you could pick up a ticket at the gate at Mt. Smart Stadium and pick whatever seat you liked. Tickets for this game were snapped up 11 minutes after they went on sale. In fact, the Warriors have become almost as popular across the ditch as their favourite pastime:

It just never gets old does it?!

The fair-weather Warriors fans have good reason to be confident after their performance last week. The fact is, if they are anywhere close to the Roosters at half-time, they should win. The Roosters showed last week against the Broncos that they are a fearsome team...for 40 minutes. Their lack of second half points, not just last week, but throughout the season has been perplexing. With that in mind, maybe the Roosters/Warriors halftime/fulltime double is good value at $6.50. Similar to my prediction last week, the heart is saying Roosters, but the head is saying Warriors.

BRONCOS vs STORM

There's been more shenanigans at the Broncos this week than a Shane Warne hotel suite. Plenty to distract them from this clash against a Storm outfit with a point to prove after last week's debacle. My take on the Storm is that sometimes they are a victim of their own gameplan and structure. They stick to it religiously and nine times out of ten, they win. In those rare matches that they lose, you're left thinking that they could have and should have won. The Storm's strict adherence to their gameplan in the close matches seems unusual considering the game-breakers they have in their side. I would have loved to see them chance their arm a bit more in the last 20 minutes...then perhaps they wouldn't now have to play two road games to make the grand final, but I guess you can't blame them for sticking with what works most of the time. The Broncos like to be written off and facing adversity. But this time they might have bitten off more than they can chew with their poorly timed benders and drunken debauchery prior to a match with a wounded Storm. Predicting exactly what is going to happen in this one is difficult...so I'll simply predict a Storm victory.

AFL

CATS vs BULLDOGS

In what shapes as one of the most lopsided first vs third preliminary finals in history, the Cats look to put the cleaners through the Dogs. Considering they didn't come close to the second best team in the first week of the finals, I'm prepared to completely write off the Dogs. I'm predicting a good old-fashioned hammering in this one:

HAWKS vs SAINTS

This one might be a little closer but I think that the Hawks are comfortably the second best team in the competition. I'd be surprised if a team as mediocre as St. Kilda could make the grand final. They knocked off a pretty average Collingwood side last week and will need to play a lot better to win this. A comfortable Hawks victory for mine. I like the Geelong (40+)/Hawthorn (25+) double at a tidy $3.89.

Enjoy your weekend of footy cuz. Should be choice bro!

WHAB Guest Blogger #1: Major Turdler

The McInTurdler System

I have long had many issues with the McIntyre system for NRL finals. The very notion that, if, as one would expect, Teams 1-4 win the first week of the finals, Team 3 subsequently plays team 5 (a higher team than the first week) in a knockout semi final is perplexing. If teams 1 and 2 win, there is absolutely no use whatsoever in the second week of finals, other than to address the following flaw. The simple statistical fact that in the 9 years that the McIntyre system has been in effect, the team who has had the week off has progressed to the grand final in 9 out of 18 qualifying finals. 90% of the time, this has been the 1 or 2 ranked team, and they only win 50% of the time. Given that they have been the strongest side all year, you would expect this to be closer to 75%. While having the second week off seems to work well in the AFL, it is a clear disadvantage in the NRL. Ultimately, the week off should be the first week, with the stakes not being quite as high in the following week.

My proposed system extends upon the McIntyre system to address these issues as follows:

Week 1: Teams 1 and 2 have the week off

3 v 8

4 v 7

5 v 6

Lowest 2 ranked losers drop out. Team 3 is the only team assured passage through to the second week.

Week 2:

1 v remaining loser

2 v lowest ranked winner

highest ranked winner v second highest ranked winner

Lowest 2 ranked losers drop out. Team 1 is the only team assured passage through to the third week.

Week 3:

Highest ranked winner vs remaining loser

Second highest ranked winner vs third highest ranked winner

Week 4: Both winners progress to Grand Final.

((At this point I will note that there is another possible variation on this system whereby each week finals are decided based on the ladder position at the end of the season (IE in week 2, team 1 plays the lowest ranked team still remaining, team 2 plays second lowest etc). However, this system, while eliminating the possibility that teams 1 and 3 can potentially meet in the second week of the finals, has the similar drawback to the current system that week 1 has no effect for team 3, and week 2 has no effect for Team 1))

I believe this system addresses the current flaws, and is far more advantageous to the team who wins the minor premiership (the way it should be). It also means that every game has an impact - which, in a finals series is vitally important. Additionally, it will space the finals out. 4 finals in the first week is too many, the end is too far away, and it loses impact. If there is one extra final in the second week, I think the level of support, both at the ground and on TV will increase.

The NRL will never admit that the McIntyre system is rubbish (Isn't that why the AFL dropped it?), but I think this is a reasonable compromise.

Please let me know your thoughts, and if there is any issues with this system I have overlooked.

Cheers.

Major Turdler.

NRL Finals Preview

It's finally that time of year again...time to shake the dust off the McIntyre system. Ah, the ingenius McIntyre system...where the 6th placed team can lose and get a second chance! Where, if teams 1 and 2 win, the other four remaining teams, win or lose in Week 1, simply swap opponents for Week 2! Here's a look at the match-ups for the weekend which may well be absolutely pointless, but hopefully, full of surprises.

Roosters vs Broncos

The quality of this 4th vs 5th clash is solely dependent on which Roosters team turns up. The good Roosters makes for a great match, the bad Roosters makes for a Broncos victory without having to hit top gear. Willie Mason is gone for the season but that has hardly made die-hard Roosters fans,

such as this man, reach for the Kleenex.

For whatever reason, Mason has not been nearly involved enough in the Roosters pack this year. So I for one am quite happy to see the younger breed of Roosters getting more playing time. And I'm bitterly disappointed that in keeping Mason, we lose Tupou but that's another story. We know the Broncos will be ready to play but one can't be too confident that the Roosters will. The key for the Broncos will be metres up the guts. Ennis will be dangerous at dummy half, an area which has been troublesome for the Chooks all year long. If Brisbane win the battle for field position, they'll win. The keys for the Roosters are ball control and not conceding dumb penalties. If they can keep those two areas in check, then they will at least be in the game. They'll also need to be ready for Lockyer to run the ball on the last or kick unexpectedly. The head says Broncos but the heart says Roosters.

Manly vs St. George

A very tricky game for Manly. Sometimes 2nd vs 7th is one of those one-sided match-ups that are not worth watching, but this one looks a real contest. Buoyed by Orford's Dally M on the back his team being really good, the Eagles will remember that they went down to the Dragons at Brookvale earlier in the year, in one of the worst quality matches ever. Both teams look to be playing much better footy now so I'm expecting this to be watchable, if not overly exciting. Whichever pack can dominate will be the obvious key to this. The other will be last tackle options. The Dragons have improved finishing their sets throughout the year and will need to do so here. I really think that Soward should be starting this match if fit; Ben Rogers is a ticking time bomb just waiting to blow the Dragons chances away. If they lose, they're gone, so I would have thought Brown would play it safe. Manly should be able to create enough opportunities through field position for Orford's short kicking game, which can be dubious, to go largely unnoticed. Yep, there'll be no highlight reel but it should be a typically tough finals match. Manly in a tight one.

Sharks vs Raiders

It's 3rd vs 6th, structure vs enterprise, Covell in the corner vs Best/Campese/Monaghan/Milne from long range, but ultimately, it's strong defense vs "we'll just score more than them". There are many reasons the Sharks should win this: the strength of their defense, the Raiders injury toll, the fact Canberra have lost two halfbacks this year and now have Glen Buttriss at 7, the fact the Raider's points output is considerably less when they come up against the better defensive teams, and the Raiders away record. But then again, what do the Raiders have to lose? Hopefully we see some Campese magic but the Sharks will be no doubt guarding him closely. I expect the Sharks to win.

Storm vs Warriors

Conceivably, the Warriors at their very best could win this, if the Storm were well below their best. But the fact is, neither of those situations occur too often. Yes, the Warriors beat the Storm a few weeks back but the conditions were awful and it was in played in NZ. This is in Melbourne and conditions couldn't possibly be as miserable. Inconsistent teams don't beat the Storm on their home turf. It will be a contest early but eventually the Storm will grind them down and cruise to a comfortable win. If there is to be a miracle;

it will be NZ by a neck!

Good luck to all the teams...but mostly the Roosters! So if we lose to the Broncos, and the Dragons beat Manly, but the Warriors get knocked out, but then the Raiders.......