I Lied!

After promising you all that I wouldn't over-complicate the 2010 Newmarket Handicap, fuck it, I'm going to get right into the nitty-gritty! It's what I do. Just ask the Professor. There is no Swiss Ace setting a cracking tempo this year, in fact, there's no obvious leader. So perhaps we could do a lot worse than working around the on-pacers here: Wanted, Starspangledbanner, Light Fantastic, Shellscrape and King Pulse are in that group. I thought the guy from Best Bets was off his fucking trolley when he tipped King Pulse to win but upon closer inspection, he could well be on the money. An on-pacer, Group 1 placed down the straight and coming in with just 50kg's. If you're looking for a juicy first 4, leave out Starspangledbanner who is in single-figure odds and cops a penalty in the weights after winning the Oakleigh Plate. I'd be inclined to box the five of them though, because if they can stack the field up a bit and make it a sprint home, they all have the sprint to kick away and they'll have it between them. Whatever your stake, throw a fiver, tenner, lobster, pineapple or greenback on All Silent to cover yourself. He's serious.

Happy punting.

Bookmaking School

Okay class, today we are going to learn what could be a very valuable lesson to you all. The theme for today is "never write off a champion". The example we will use is Saturday's TJ Smith Stks. Let's say you open your market with Apache Cat at $2.80. Seven time Group 1 winner, that's fair enough I'd say. You have a bit of interest from punters in Nicconi so you open him up at $4.50. Even though there is no evidence whatsoever that he will do anything in a WFA race at this point in time. If you've been drinking whisky all morning, and it's a really hot day, you could be forgiven for starting the superstar Takeover Target at $4. The rest of the field are $8.50 plus and you don't get much interest throughout betting for those runners. In this example, the booky wound Nicconi into $4, then into $3.80 and finally to $3.60. Why? Anyone? You there..."because he won the Galaxy with 51 kg last start?". Fuck no son. The correct answer is "I have no fucking idea". And can anyone tell me why you'd drift a champion out from $4, all the way to $6? You again..."because he's a rising 10.y.o.?". No, fuck no my boy. The correct answer is "because you are a very fucking stupid bookie". I can't even remember the Target starting at odds that juicy in international races. So class, never write off a champion. Never offer $6 on the Target. Ever. Well that's all for today class, a very valuable lesson for you all...

Doncaster Mile Preview!

Getting cocky after the last horse I said I'd nude up for if it somehow won, Zikmann, ran a distant last in the Golden Slipper, I'm offering a triple treat for our WHAB readership. There are three (3) horses below that, if they somehow win, I will nude up for (whilst trackside for the Doncaster!). It's a great field for one of the toughest mile races in the world, so let's get into it.

1. THESEO (2) $13

Captain: The Professor asked me if I could find a single reason to not bet on Theseo in this race at such attractive odds...I could not find one, or even make one up. This is a star racehorse, a contender for Horse Of The Year, and a horse that is bombproof. That's right, in the wake of a nuclear holocaust, we'll all be gone, but Theseo will still be there churning out laps of Royal Randwick.

Weather: Overcast, Track: Nuclear

So him dropping back from 2400m to 1600m, to me, only makes it tougher to beat him at the mile. Not too harshly weighted here either for mine. Get on people.

Professor: Super fit. Loves the mile. Loves the track. Has an undeniable quality that most of these lack. I love Theseo for this. And the best thing about backing Theseo is that it thrives in all track conditions. I have a $50 free bet, courtesy of Centrebet this weekend, and this guy gets it.

JB: You know when you get a free bet for $50 that has to be placed in a single bet, well this is my free bet horse. At $13 you can set yourself up for a solid win on the back of a free bet. If, however, you have already expired the free bets on the plethora of betting agencies ala Cap-i-tan then a bet on this horse from your own pocket still stacks up but will find it tough to monopolize your Doncaster cash.

2. ALAMOSA (18) $26

Captain: If this was a mile at Caulfield or Flemington on a dry track, I'd be very keen. Like Theseo, don't think he is too badly weighted in relation to every other horse in the field, except All Silent. I'm not sure how Alamosa's Toorak victory outweighs All Silent's Emirates victory by 2kg but we'll leave that to the handicapper to explain. He is a chance in this race, but some horses you'd just prefer to see in Melbourne. I'm going to have to leave him out.

Professor: At hard and fast group one level, I'd prefer this horse over 1500 metres. I think a mile (even though it's 8-5-1-1 over the mile!) is the very edge of its comfort zone and at this level I don't know if I want to be on it. Any give out of the ground just about ends this horses chances as well.

JB: Good horses like Alamosa deserve flattering pre-race commentary, but when it comes down to it I'm not betting on it and although worthy of a place in your multiples I will be leaving out of even those.

3. KING MUFHASA (10) $15

Captain: Has changed his name by Deed Poll, in NZ is known simply as Mufhasa. My take on his George Ryder run is that he left it all on the track. Connections think he'll improve on that. If they are right, he's right in this. They are also praying for the track to dry out as he holds numerous track records in NZ. Thet's just choice bro'. A bug chance un this.

Professor: I'll probably shop around for significantly more than $15 on the day, and if I get it, I will have a little crack at this one. I think it wants the surface no worse than dead though.

JB: King Mufhasa sounds like an afircan american tranie or chick-with-a-dick for those with a clasical education. Not sure how you all feel with those sort of encounters but for mind the discounted price is never worth it. Even at longer odds I will be letting this was one go through to the professor.

4. TRIPLE HONOUR (1) $17

Captain: Last year's winner but up in weights and not looking like he's in the same vein of form. One that is probably needing rain to win. Despite drawing well, I'm going to need more than the $17 on offer here. You're taking him on trust these days and I don't trust him.

Professor: Not for me. The connections seem to think that it is going better than last year, though this horse has looked like one of those who benefited from handicap conditions and a purple patch of form. A La Montagna type, never to win anything that big again.

JB: Long time between drinks. The quality of the horses here has grown, the Honour has not. Triple Honour isn't the name you will find on my betting slips.

5. ALL SILENT (16) $6

Captain: Favourite for the race and if not for the presence of Theseo and Musket, I'd be plonking on him. In fact, I'll still likely plonk on him, as well as Theseo and Musket. I get a little crazy when there's a big Group 1 on but for good reason. He ticks just about every box for a Doncaster Mile; weighted to win (and how!), is already a Group 1 winner, has a blistering finish, sits back anyway (taking the wide gate out of the equation), and is always in the finish. I can't remember him running a bad race...oh fuck it...now I've probably just jinxed him with the Captain's Curse and he'll run last! Nah, this fella always turns up and is the best weighted horse in the field. Only knock is that he's not as blistering on the heavy and slow. Dead or better, he's getting home with Musket trying to nail Theseo on the line.

Professor: He and Theseo have slipped under the handicappers radar for me. In a sane world, the two of them would be duking it out with 60 kgs and still be right in this. As it stands, with a less weight than Alamosa (As 80's video game legend QBert would say: #$^&#!) he is entitled to favouritism and yeah, I'm signing up.

JB: My money is on Theseo at the front and this guy hot on his heels. My money at this stage is split pretty evenly between these two and will wait to see what the track is like on the day (yes, thats right because I will be there bitches) and give my final support accordingly.

6. WHOBEGOTYOU (19) $8

Captain: It's a shame really that he's had such a disjointed campaign with injury and races that just have not suited. Now he draws gate 19, which had the emotional rollercoaster that is Mark Kavanagh in agony at the barrier draw. He's having no luck at all, but I still wonder if he has come back the same horse this prep. I think he'll be back strong for the Spring. I just don't see him winning the Doncaster tomorrow.

Professor: As good a horse as he is, be wary of the three year old wunderkind backing up for another prep. Had a mixed preparation, but in saying that I think he has been a rung below his spring form. That being said, a rung below his spring form is still very good, so I hate to leave him out. The only real reason to do so for me is that a three year old horse is carrying the same amount of weight as All Silent.

JB: Great horse, bad campaign. When he does recapture some form - look out. I'm not betting that he will find his feet in the Doncaster.

7. HOT DANISH (7) $7

Captain: Apparently she's Sydney's favourite mare, but while I respect her, she just doesn't do it for me. Not sure what it is; maybe I just prefer strudel. Sometimes it's that simple. The thing to like about her here is that she always gets forward and should be able to make her own luck from the handy gate of 7. Whilst not writing her off, I don't think she can beat All Silent at a mile with only a 0.5 kg pull in the weights on a dead track or better. A wetter surface and she falls into the mudlark clutches of Neroli and Vision And Power. So by process of elimination, I won't be on her, though she'll be thereabouts at the finish.

Professor: Though a winner of 2 of 3 at the mile, I think that this mares best shot at a group one is over 1200 metres. Gets the mile, but will probably find one or two better. Given a likely slow track on Saturday, I'd back this in the T.J. Smith, but not in the Doncaster.

JB: A bloody good horse, had a great campaign last spring, hasn't quite dominated like last year but with plenty of class about her I'm not going to be agaff if she takes this one. Having said that you can't bet on everything and sometimes you just have to call it. My money won't find a home here but if these horses come together in the spring then I reserve my right to change my preference.

8. SIR SLICK (15) $151

Captain: Another Kiwi horse who has two different names, depending on which country he's in. Back home he is Sir Slick. In Oz, he is Sir Plod. You know what I'm going to do if Sir Plod gets up?!?

The Captain, following an unlikely victory...

Professor: Sir Slick for me is one that I am giving a small chance to. Enough of a chance for a $3 win/$5 place kind of ticket. Why? It's career line in NZ is more than a little impressive. But for its ill-fated Melbourne tilt of 2008, it would be worth some discussion. Maybe it travelled poorly, maybe it had a bug. Maybe like many-a-gay-english horse, it wasn't the same without its sodomy pony. Whatever. There's enough potential here to make me interested at $151.

JB: If some heavy rain comes in then I still won't have money on this guy.

9. SOLO FLYER (9) $15

Captain: After his first start as a 2.y.o in 2006, which he won, the Flyer developed amnesia and forgot how to win. Following years of revolutionary therapy from the AJ Cummings stable's resident horse whisperer, he finally remembered how to win again in March 2009. Now he can't stop winning. It's an old cliche, but I'll bust it out again; winning form is good form. He has risen through the grades nicely this campaign and is a good chance here.

Professor: It's hard to fault this guys form this preparation. Could be the most ill-equipped of this group when there is give in the ground, so I'm going to take the easy option and suggest that you wait for a guide from the market.

JB: One can easily get carried away in quality Grp 1 races and end up with a multitude of bets on any and every thing that takes one's fancy. Not to say the Flyer shouldn't catch your eye, but you can't be taken seriously when you have money on 5+ horses. Something has to give and the Flyer for me will be found wanting when all is said and done.

10. VISION AND POWER (12) $10

Captain: Has surprised everyone this campaign, not least his trainer. Always was an honest horse but now he's busting out G1's. You would think however, that he needs it rather wet to win a Doncaster. I can't have him at the $8-$10 that I'm seeing around the traps unless I'm told by the course manager, face to face, that without question, the track will be heavy. I don't know the course manager and I'm pretty sure if I rang him, he wouldn't talk to me for fear of being subject to WHAB's scrutiny. On that basis, I'm leaving him out of my calculations.

Professor: Can this horses purple patch of form continue? To me, it had its ideal surface in its last start, got a perfect rails ride and only beat Black Piranha by a neck. I'd look for the Piranha to be snapping (Pun!!) at its heels and turning the table on anything slow or better.

JB: I think this guy's form indicates either that he has been primed to perfection for this one or he has spent all his lollies. You won't hear me at the top of my voice declaring that this horse can't do it, but at the end of the day my money won't be riding with the vision or the power.

11. NEROLI (3) $9

Captain: I'll boldly say right now that if the track is heavy, she wins. She eats mud for breakfast. Her stable is made of mud. A stable spy tells me she even shits mud. Even without a heavy track, she is some chance on her ability. But if you get wind of a stormfront on Doncaster morning, even if it's 6am, go directly to the TAB. Do not pass Go but definitely collect $200, more if you have it. With any luck, you'll be the first punter there. Wait till the TAB opens, and be the first to plunge on her.

Professor: I'm pooping the Neroli party. If the track is heavy, the Professor thinks that you should look ⇓⇓⇓. They ran a comparable time in the Ryder and Coolmore and the track was even more chopped up in the Ryder. Neroli is a big chance in the heavy, but I'd play it safe.

JB: I wouldn't go as far as to call this gal a mudlark per se, but if the rain keeps coming then all bets are off and this gal is for me.

12. GALLANT TESS (13) $41

Captain: Unfortunately, being gallant doesn't guarantee you a Group 1 win. Think she probably had her shot at these big mile races 12-18 months ago and that the moment has passed her by.

Professor: Confidently putting a line here. Will beat home a lot of more fancied runners. Will likely find at least 4 better. That's the Gallant Tess way. Unexciting but a great little cash cow for her owners.

JB: Not sure if people would call you gallant or tess for putting your money on this. Play it safe, keep your money for something with a chance.

13. LARGO LAD (5) $11

Captain: This guy is the most massive horse I've seen. He is a monster. He hasn't always run accordingly however. That said, it would not shock me if he was the knockout in this. His last run was better than it looks on paper; though I do tend to find myself saying that a lot about this big bastard. I am going to leave him and accept the egg on my face if he knocks 'em out.

Professor: Hayes: Check. Boss: Check. Look, this horse is always whopping unders. Ask any of the clowns who jump on this thing in early markets for the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup etc... In fact, if you play your cards right you can get $15 on this to win "So you think you can dance" at Sportingbet. Get on while the getting is good.

JB: Not for me, if you want a big horse, I don't know maybe your into that kinda thing?? Then Orca in Race 3 is more likely to make you a return.

14. PINNACLES (4) $34

Captain: Pinnacles can turn up with seemingly no form and win a nice race or run 3rd in a Doncaster, like he did last year. You should never take him lightly because his form is littered with bad gates and sloppy rides. An innocuous looking 8th for this horse in the form guide, is invariably a bad barrier, immediately followed by a sloppy ride; a double whammy which leaves him absolutely no chance. With a nice draw here and no weight on his back, I reckon he's worth a nibble at each way odds. Let's just hope Munce doesn't slop him up...

Professor: Has the ability to frustrate with its inconsistency like no other. I do like your chances of getting silly odds of $70 or so on the day. Once it ticks past that, you have my permission to get stupid.

JB: No one likes an inconsistent horse, ipso facto I won't be trackside screaming out for this guy. If you get nervous either put a hedge in for this guy or buy yourself a scotch and coke, I recommend the latter.

15. BLACK PIRANHA (11) $14

Captain: Looks like this one is on the up. His form is good and he keeps improving. Not sure if he has improved to the level of winning the Doncaster Mile but it's worth a shot. My issue with the Piranha is that he has only two runs leading into this. I would say that you need at least three. Especially when the mile might test you. And any trainer will tell you, this is the toughest mile race in the land. If he draws up to a horse like Theseo and looks the tiger in the eye, he'll see that it's going to take even more to beat him. I don't think he'll be fit enough or tough enough in the final furlong so it's a no for me.

Professor: If you like Neroli or Vision and Power at $10, you should love this one at $20. They ran a similar time on an even more chopped up surface in the Ryder. This carried 59 kgs in the Ryder, and boomed home. Regardless of conditions, I'm including this one with no weight as a real knockout.

JB: A horse that has fans, I'm not one of them and will not include in my straight up bets. Could find a place in the multiples for the Piranha but will see how much I have drunk by that stage.

16. RAGS TO RICHES (8) $67

Captain: Hehehehehehe! Makes me giggle that this old boy is having a crack at a Doncaster, especially when I'm used to him in more moderate Open Hcps in Brisbane. No form that makes me want to get a little crazy on him, although he won't have the likes of Pay Me, Nellie Got There and co. to contend with. Hehehehehehe! You know what I'm going to do if RTR gets up?!?

Professor: Yeah, on a genuine bog this thing could sneak into the first 4. That's as big a vote of confidence it'll get from me. And I'm its biggest defender.

JB: I'm not going to have any part of this, but will be interested to see the Professor and the Capitan fight for slopping rights.

17. CHINCHILLA ROSE (6) $81

Captain: I've talked her up before only to be let down, not with terrible runs, just with unprofitable runs. Class wise, I think that on her day she could possibly win a Group 1...in fillies & mares company. Just can't have her sober, but if the drink gets to my head, who knows what I'll be saying come 3.30 Saturday.

Professor: At this stage in her career, the Rose has been crying out for this trip. I was shocked to see that it had never run more than 1500 metres in her career. Interestingly enough, in her last two starts she has been ridden much more forward than usual. If you are backing her, with 51.5 kgs I think you would like her to be ridden cold and you just never know. She may just tickle 100-1 somewhere on the day and could run a really cheeky race. As it has matured, I think the rose has been crying out for 1600-2000 metres and I will have a little flutter.

JB: The Rose has quality in there somewhere, just not one to bring it out when it counts. I like this horse but this is not going to be her race.

18. MUSKET (14) $26

Captain: In a word...yes. This guy can win this. I get the feeling he's been building up to a race like the Doncaster since he started racing. His last run was the run of the day on the heavy in the Parma. He has no weight here. The mile looks perfect. Ready...aim...fire...he'll be shootin' home down the centre of the track...be on him at a crazy $26 when he does.

Professor: His run in the Parma was terrific. And on a side note, how wonderful is it that Randwick has a listed race to celebrate the godly combination of snitzel, cheese, ham and tomato. Don't get me started about the bastardised hawaiian parma that Melbournians crave:

Believe it or not, this is Parma...possibly bastardised.

They love Simon O'Donnell. Musket is absolutely dependent on a cracking tempo up front - which he is highly likely to see here. With the likes of Sir Slick and Theseo in this race, Musket with 51.5 is an obvious beneficiary. I've got him down as the best of the genuine swoopers and at $26, you have to be interested.

JB: At $26 he is a solid roughie that you should have at least something on. Not going to be the horse that I want to win but will hopefully pay for a few more rounds when the race has come and gone.

19. RHYNO CHASER (17) $67

Captain: Do connections realise that there is another 1600m Handicap on the card that he might actually have a chance in?! You know what I'm going to do if the Chaser gets up?!?

Professor: It's your money.

JB: Look, nobody wants to see Captain peewee so lets all just move on, and if all the other horses come down with anthrax and somehow the Chaser gets up then I'm happy to just say it didn't and spare my retinas.

FINAL SELECTIONS

Captain: Theseo and All Silent are the best horses in this field in my humble First-Four-In-The-Golden-Slipper opinion. All Silent will need some luck and is susceptible to bombs, so on that basis, I make the bombproof Theseo my top pick. Musket should be flying home with the light weight and this could well be his time. But can a Musket defend you against a bomb? Solo Flyer can't stop winning, but hasn't been tested under a mushroom cloud. So;

1. Theseo
2. All Silent
3. Musket
4. Solo Flyer

"Then came, Hot Danish, King Mufhasa, Neroli, followed by Pinnacles and Largo Lad, next was Vision And Power, Alamosa and Whobegotyou had no luck, behind them Triple Honour, Black Piranha, didn't see it out, Chinchilla Rose and Gallant Tess, and a line of three have knocked up at the back, Sir Plod, Rags To Riches and Rhyno Chaser." Should have been a race caller!

Unless of course it pours and the track is heavy...then it is all Neroli!

Professor: Unbelievably, I'm almost seeing eye to eye with my first four. That may be what happens when you've been shooting emails back and forth about this race for 2 months. Or, this could be a race that makes sense. Anyway for the likely surface of a 5-7 on the double (peno)trometre:

1. Theseo
2. All Silent
3. Musket
4. Black Piranha.

At large odds, I see no reason why a dollar each way on Sir Slick and Chinchilla Rose would hurt. If it's no worse than a dead four, include Solo Flyer and Mufhasa at the expense of Musket and Black Piranha. If it's a genuine bog; my first four is Theseo - Black Piranha - Neroli - Musket.

JB: No prizes for guessing my picks if you have read the above but staying pretty firm on:

1. Theseo
2. All Silent
3. Musket
4. Largo Lad

Ok so I get a bit undone locking in a fourth, for me Boss is always a good hedge to the bullshit he carries on with. Looks like a great card with plenty of races that will be worth every penny of the entry fee. Keep an eye out for your WHAB team, they'll be drunk (possibly nude at some stage!), they'll be in the DOSA, and they will be talking it up!

The Professor & The Captain Talk Derby Day

Derby day tomorrow will hopefully be another cash cow for our team of punters here at WHAB. The Derby itself doesn't look nearly as exciting as The Galaxy, a high charged sprint over 1100m, in which many runners will become hurdles as they drift back through the field, the realisation hitting connections that they are way out of depth at Group 1 level. Two alleged Group 2 races and an alleged Group 3 on the card as well so we'll just stick to the features here.

AJC DERBY

Captain: I'm not entirely convinced of the staying credentials of many runners here, so am inclined to actually steer clear of the Rosehill Guineas form and look a bit rougher. I think there is a very real possibility that horses coming from interstate and across the ditch are in this up to their pricked ears. I particularly liked the run of Harris Tweed ($8.50) last week. Has run a decent 4th at the trip in NZ eh cuz, and looks like the run last week might have topped him off nicely for this bro'. Coniston Bluebird ($12) is the NZ Derby winner which is just choice form for this race cuzzy bro'. I reckon he'll improve on his run in the Guineas as he hadn't run for nearly a month. The spruiking of Big Col ($21) by Roy and HG was a concern as, whilst they are entertaining, they are the last two people that any sane and serious punter would want a tip off. But I do like the big fella in this. Comes into this after winning over 2000m at Caulfield when he and the horse that ran 2nd gapped the rest. I'm also a sucker for a son of Reset. So I'll go with Harris Tweed from Coniston Bluebird and Big Col.

Professor: I'm not looking too dissimilar in my picks here. I have grave doubts on the quality of the Guineas form. Big Col is my top pick, has quality stayer written all over him. Had a nibble last night and have seen the price roll in since, so I am clearly not alone. Unless of course $5 Each way has the potential to move a market. The Rosehill form from last week is a little tough to match up due to the wet. Harris Tweed and Doctor Doutes are my favourites based on that race. Harris Tweed put in a great run, and Doctor Doutes could have a bit of class over this trip. Will consider Coniston Bluebird as well. The Metal Bender/Rock Kingdom/Sousa group? Pass. I don't see the Guineas form holding up. Think it's a coincidence that front runners have dominated both Guineas? Both were won in a walk. If anything from that race gets up, for me it'd be Pre Eminence - it boomed home against the aforementioned slow tempo.

So yeah, work around 1,5, 7, 9 & 10. But mostly 10.

THE GALAXY

Captain: When I had my first run down of the The Galaxy field I thought to myself, "Gamble Me ($7) can win this". Then my eyes nearly popped out of my head when I saw she had only 51kg! I am loading up on her, think she is very underrated and definitely has a big race in her. Probably tomorrow. Not too many of these are genuine Group 1 horses and a lot of them prefer a slightly longer trip. Olonana ($8) has only ever won first up. She is a first up merchant. Maybe she can figure 2nd up with only 51kg as well. Kaphero is a Moonee Valley merchant, happy to leave him out. At first glimpse, Swiss Ace ($7) as topweight in a Group 1 is not appealing...until you read further. Right in this, with "Tooth-Rot" Kenny Pope on board. The Professor has been following Kenny's cigarette-smoke trail from Caulfield to Flemington and now here.

Yeah, yeah, another Group 1...now where's the fucking DOSA?!

The other horse I must include is Black Prince. I cannot think of any reason other than injury why The Jackal isn't running tomorrow. He is in career best form, like Hansel...so hot right now. And Black Prince ($7) ran a good second to him in the Star Kingdom. Last week Mount Verde (3rd in Star Kingdom) franked that form with a staunch win. So I will go Gamble Me, from Swiss Ace, Olonana and Black Prince to try and nail back to back First Fours!

Professor: Even with the big weight, Swiss Ace is the pick here. The form from the Oakleigh and Newmarket stacks up in a big way. Swiss Ace runs these off their legs tomorrow. The biggest danger is Gamble Me. I am yet to back this horse, I think that it has something to do with Simon O'Donnell tipping it one day. I couldn't back it. It won. It has had a dirty feel to me since. Maybe tomorrow is the day. El Cambio is my pick of the swoopers. If I go rough, Keen Commander has the ability to put in a run of such immense quality from time to time.

GOLDEN SLIPPER PREVIEW!!!

Last year's Golden Slipper was bittersweet for me; as well as backing the third-placed Portillo, I ended up backing the winner Sebring, but like everybody else, had to endure another fist-pumpin', whip crackin', yahooin', Group 1 Boss-a-thon. Oh the humanity...

This year, you should prepare yourself just in case Headway gets up. I can't stress this enough: be prepared. The man wins a lot of Group 1's so don't get caught off guard by a screenful of over-excited Boss:

Professor's Trackwatch: I'd assume a dead to slow surface. The rain has likely stopped, but there was a lot of it!

Without further ado, here's a look at the 2009 Golden Slipper field.

1. Real Saga (13) $3.50

Captain: If he gets a clear run and a heads up ride from Oliver, I think he wins. In the Blue Diamond, Oliver sat miles back and let Reward For Effort stroll to victory up front, on a track clearly favouring leaders. Apparently the horse "does not have early speed". That's all well and good, but you can't tell me he couldn't have had him closer at the turn. The BD 2nd placing was his only defeat in his 5 starts. I love the fact that he has had a run between the BD and Slipper. Can he handle it if it's wet? I reckon 3/3 on the dead says he can. Don't think Oliver will be caught napping again and I think he'll be too good.

Professor: If I was going to take either of the two hype horses in this, Real Saga would most certainly be the one. But there are a lot of reasons to look a little deeper in this field. For one, I am always loathe to back a drop out horse in a Golden Slipper. But most importantly to me, in its first start in the wet against elite opposition and paying $3.50, you've got to have faith I guess.

JB: Plenty of class, plenty of people with their wallets riding on this horse. Bookies will be upset if this gets up and you too if you're stuck behind some dumbshit blonde with $2 place bet who has no idea what she's doing and the dueshebag shes with in his grey pinstrip suit with a pink shirt is waving his $3 win ticket in the air talking like he's the fucking king of the track, while you're trying to get your next bet on for the Kembla - we've all been there. If you want to take this horse put your balls out there so your not mistaken for the blonde or the dueshebag.

2. Reward For Effort (3) $11

Captain: Showed a nice turn of foot in the Blue Diamond, but I see Real Saga turning the tables on him here. Not just because Reward For Effort was helped by a typical Caulfield track favouring leaders all day, but I'm always wary of a horse coming to Sydney for the first time right after a BD win. There have been some spectacular failures in recent years from BD winners such as Undoubtedly, Sleek Chassis and Reaan, all of which were trained specifically to win the BD. Combined, they beat home two horses in the Slipper. Is the Slipper an afterthought for this guy as well? That's what concerns me.

Professor: It will go to the front, which is never a bad thing. It has shown the class to win this kind of race. This is also good. But yeah, the Blue Diamond is a pretty poor guide to this race and I'll be looking elsewhere.

JB: I'm not going to say that this horse will come last but I don't think the travelled punter will like any horse first time going to Sydney for something like the Golden Slipper. Not expecting the rewards for effort this weekend.

3. Manhattan Rain (5) $11

Captain: The Professor is all over this one because of an extremely vague connection to "Chubby Rain" (see Bowfinger). For those of you who haven't seen it, the rain is "chubby" because aliens are in the raindrops. I'm more of a Fake Purse Ninja fan myself. Has flown under the radar with More Joyous also in the Waterhouse camp. Has good speed and looks like he's in with a shot, and on closer reflection I have a favourite and roughies...I need something around the $11 mark for the multiples.

Professor: There is more to this love affair than the enjoyment I get calling for Chubby Rain. To me, this horse fits the Slipper winning profile better than most. When I look at the profile of recent winners, a couple of things jump out. 5 of the last 7 winners have turned in the top four. The two outliers, pretty special horses in Sebring and Miss Finland. For the Gents, the Skyline Stakes (3 weeks before the Slipper) has been the Bellweather race and like Dance Hero, Manhattan Rain lead in it from pillar to post. To me, it's not just the best value in the field but the best horse. I see Dance Hero upside in this colt.

JB: Multiples, for sure, sole win ticket with this guys name on it, not likely. If you listen to the Prof then this guy is at least a good hedge for many of you. I probably won't be tempted by this guy but not to say you shouldn't and if anything probably worth a few bob on it so as not to have to let the professor be alone when shouting out for some chubby rain.

4. Delago Bolt (1) $21

Captain: Don't think he'll be good enough. Winning in 1 min 13.1 on a good track, at this venue and over 1200m two starts back leaves me less than enthusiastic. I'm also inclined to leave out Black Opal form. Unable to place on a dead track. Ol' jailbird Munce on board. 1 min 13.1. Do I need to go on? $21, triple that and I'll have a look.

Professor: I am only worried about times when a horse is an on-pace type. Winning from the back in 1:13:1 is a pretty tough ask considering how cheap the on-pacers were clearly doing it.

In saying that, probably not at $21 but at $40 yes. So, we'll see if $40 is available on Saturday.

JB: The call is in, look for large odds. Probably wouldn't even have a taste at even the longer odds.

5. Wanted (8) $51

Captain: It would be hard to see him turning the tables on Real Saga. And there are other chances in the race besides Real Saga. So that's a no for him winning but: "I'm a cowboy...on a steel horse I ride...I'm Wanted...dead or alive...". I'll leave this one for all the Bon Jovi diehards out Rosehill way.

Professor: When I saw the run in the Kindergarten Stakes I was massively impressed with this one. Maybe something went wrong in the Tod-man. I'd give it a chance in the dry, but we've seen in the wet, and it couldn't swim.

JB: Not wanted in this direction. But like a midget at a urinal you have to stay on your toes, watch for this clown to sink about 600 to go blocking the run for a few behind it.

6. Phelan Ready (18) $26

Captain: I have a bit of time for this guy. Stormed home to win the Magic Millions over a filly who had been trouncing all comers (including himself) in Paprika. That's 2.y.o racing I guess. Ran on okay behind Real Saga in the Todman at his first start since the Millions, so there is likely some improvement there. He is presumably being set for the Sires/Champagne, so at the very least, he'll be strong at the line. Outside gate won't help, but if the pace is hot, expect him to be storming home at good odds.

Professor: I was quite astounded watching this thing storm home in the Magic Millions. I put a whopping bet on Paprika that day. That is the last time I take a 2 y.o. in a big race at under $5. Basically that's why I'm not touching the top two here.

JB: At $26 plenty to nibble on. Look to place and make you a few quid on the sly.

7. Zikmann (15) $301

Captain: I won't be trackside to nude up if this guy somehow wins, but I will run nude from Brisbane to Rosehill for charity. The Captain's Brisbane to Rosehill Nude Charity Run for Kids Who Can't Read Good and I'll even pull the whip down the Rosehill straight!

Professor: I'll be trackside to watch the Captain get molested by half of the Sydney Western Suburbs. Fantastic.

JB: I'll be far far far away from any Captain nude run, but not as far away as I am from betting on this horse.

8. More Joyous (12) $3.80

Captain: "Boom Boom, Shake Shake the Room...Tick Tick Tick Tick Boom!". Your annual Slipper boom horse. Certainly not saying she can't win but I'd choose Real Saga over her without thinking twice. Think she is still a massive risk of doing something wrong. An outside draw probably not ideal for her either. I'm going to boldly leave her out.

Professor: I'm with the Captain on this one - I'm leaving this one out. It's quite a tough call though, it was a pretty solid run in the Ilasik. Has never run a time that suggest that she is as good as the press clippings. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes third out of the Waterhouse tilt.

JB: See comments for Real Saga but if this is your style of betting then listen up and just put your money on Real Saga already.

9. Rostova (9) $7

Captain: I would suggest that she is looking for further than the 1200m. Obviously being aimed at the Sires/Champagne double as well, I think she is way too short here. Not convinced of what she's beat at her wins and was soundly beaten in the BD. $7... I am definitely looking elsewhere.

Professor: Has the unmistakable hype about her as the best Victorian horse in the field. Undeniable quality but not the best value in this field.

JB: Will be a horse to look out for. The $7 odds are more of a turn off than a he-she with bad breath and a moustache - although the Professor has been caught out before, don't be fooled here!

10. Melito (11) $21

Captain: Really had every chance to beat More Joyous in the Ilisak but was found wanting. Considering I'm not sold on More Joyous, I will be saving my cash for others.

Professor: This one failed to impress me in the Ilasik. I'll pass as I think there are better horses at better prices.

JB: Not too many races leave you thinking that no matter the rub of the green this horse had nothing to say that it could do better. Melito is one of these horses, it stared destiny down the straight and was found wanting.

11. Indian Ocean (2) $26

Captain: The first of the runners trying to win this off a one week backup. Horses that are running one week out from the Slipper are horses who need to win to guarantee a start. It is not an ideal preparation. Don't think she's up to it, but in saying that, her form is hard to gauge. I'll leave her out.

Professor: I prefer Marquardt, Headway and Horizons at better odds. It's had a win on the slow, so that's a plus.

JB: Inside barrier and at $26. Has the makings of a loose bet come 5min to jump. Stay strong, trust your instinct and leave this in multiples at best.

12. Headway (6) $31

Captain: "But it's Headway, well clear for Boss, and Headway wins the Golden Slipper!". You can smell the salty smell of Bossy's tears already. You can feel the jubilation in every fist pump and whip crack. Cop that you asshole Sydney trainers and owners! Considering that the Bossman wins a fuckload of Group 1's and Headway has won three on the trot, what are you waiting for? Get on that $31, get on that shit. The form looks alright and that price is oh so fine. Just remember to be prepared; Boss had to move to Melbourne recently to get rides after repeated snubbings from Sydney trainers, so expect an emotional rollercoaster as he gets his revenge!

Who's the Boss, bitches?

Professor: Yep, what the Captain said. You know, this is a BIG chance. I haven't seen this horse do anything but run brilliantly. Look, it fell in a bit in the Sweet Embrace. But the win prior to that had a bit of quality. I personally think that Horizons is better, particularly with a little sting out of the ground, but I'm looking pretty hard at this one.

JB: $31, a real chance take it and buy yourself a bottle of track bubbly to drown out whatever dribble Boss goes on with.

13. Our Joan Of Arc (14) $41

Captain: This horse seems to have been around since her namesake. I thought she was at least a 4.y.o already. Anyway, I'm not sure how this bookmaking thing works, but she was comfortably beaten by Wanted, drew a wider gate for this, but is $10 shorter. It doesn't make sense people. Pass.

Professor: Conspiracy theory: I've watched all of this horses races on the internet in the last hour (I have a kickass job!). Since qualifying for the Slipper in December with some utterly fantastic runs, this horse has not been whipped, prodded or nudged. It has been given back-rubs and sat around eating ice cream. Clarrie Connors, racing genius may have a devious and cunning plan here.

JB: Earlier form would give this horse much more of your time, either you believe the conspiracy / Bart Cummings M Cup theory or you're happy to let this one pass right on by. I'm inclined to do the later.

14. Horizons (17) $61

Captain: She will likely look the winner before they turn after shooting across from a wide gate early. Then she will either be swamped, devoured by the pack, and spat out the back door if they've gone too hard, or she will be thereabouts. Think the barrier might have killed her chances but there are a few shorter than her that seem to present far less value. Form is alright and has a slow track win (over Melito who is $21). Definitely not the worst, so if a schooner is say $4.50, 16 x $0.5 change= $8, that's $4 each way for Horizons.

Professor: Could well be the best roughie in this field. Put in a powerful win in the Widden (mudlark!), but couldn't follow it up in the Sweet Embrace. Upon review, Horizons was a sitting duck in the Sweet Embrace on an inner part of the course that looked pretty ugly (in fact, the next race was the Skyline won by Manhattan Rain and ALL of the horses looked to be five or more off the fence!). At the price, you have to have a look. The barrier is no worries in this weather either. YES, YES, ONE MILLION TIMES YES!

JB: You know you will have something on it, just do the math. You don't need much at $61 to have some fun with it.

15. Marquardt (16) $41

Captain: A tough filly. Has had a few setbacks and some bad luck in races but I find myself making a lot of excuses for her. Backs up here after making some good ground on Indian Ocean last week but this is harder. Not the worst though, and I'd include her in multiples before Indian Ocean personally.

Professor: Impressive run on the weekend in a less than impressive race. The barrier is not a big drama in this weather, and if they fly out in front, it's as good a chance as any. I will have a look at this one.

JB: I like the type of horse she represents. Sort of like a more modern day Fields Of Omagh only two thirds the size and hasn't come back from the dead. Would like to see it preform well but head is saying - go away, not today.

16. So Anyway (7) $81

Captain: So Anyway, I'll be leaving her alone. Not enough form against horses who are actually in the Slipper, even if she is a dead track merchant.

Professor: No, but the connections should be pretty excited... Although they seem like they let their 14 year old daughters name their horse so...

JB: anyway.

17. Sunday Rose (1st Em) (10) $81

18. Stryker (2nd Em) (4) $151

SELECTIONS

Captain: I will likely smash Real Saga because I think he's gonna be a star, whilst playing around with these and trying to nail a massive first four so I can take the next year or so off work:

1. Real Saga
2. Headway
3. Manhattan Rain
4. Phelan Ready
5. Horizons

Professor: I like Manhattan "Chubby" Rain, from Real Saga and Horizons. Given $20 to play with I'd put $10 on the Rain and $5 Each way on Horizons. Decent place chances for Headway, Marquardt and Phelan Ready. Obviously, one of the favourites could blow them out of the water.

JB: First I want to tell you a little something about Mr Tipsy in the BMW. First off, its a grey mudlark - say no more. Second, colours: Pink not chartrouse, pink. Third, M.Rodd. Fourth, it's paying $12. It might not really have the class of Viewed or Theseo but I like it! Roughie of choice has to be Newport who I hope, more from sentiment then form, also does well. But back to the Slipper, my money is all over the outside chances to make a return even in the places. All the cash to be split between Headway, Horizons and Phelan Ready. Won't be surprised if Real Saga and More Joyous battle it out down the straight but not betting on it.

Racing News

An excerpt from an article by Max Presnell after Takeover Target's win in the Winterbottom Stks:

"Take a bow, Joe Janiak. He showed, in this era of big-number training operations there is still a place for the hand-tailored top-liner. Around five years ago the comment was made: "Imagine what Takeover Target would do with a real trainer." Takeover Target wouldn't even be here now." I hear ya Max.

There'd have been no royal trips overseas if he was churned out of the Hayes horse factory.

The Target lines up this week in the 1400m A.J Scahill Stks on Saturday. There are only four other horses brave enough to take him on!

In Honkers, Douro Valley is having a crack at the Hong Kong Vase (2400m). Don't like his chances here as I think he tops out at that distance. The fields on this raceday are world class as well, but hopefully he can run a cheeky race. Another interesting runner is Purple Moon, the 2007 Melbourne Cup runner-up.

The baldy-face of Apache Cat will hopefully be storming down the Shatin straight to victory in the Hong Kong Sprint. At his very best, I would back him to win this. Not sure he is at his very best presently but could be peaking at the right time. Go the Cat!

The Cat, eyeing off a Honkers Group 1

The Professors Guide to Roughies!

Eagle Farm today sees a lot of good races, anyway, just thought I would share my opinions on the best outside chances running around in all 8 races.

They are somewhat rough, so I may come up with nothing, but if you are like me - this is how you like to invest.

Race 1:
Not too interesting in terms of roughies, I think Lancaster Park ($26) can improve. There seems to be enough of a wrap on it and this is an easy race.

Race 2:
Again, wish I had of started this preview with Race 3, however lets lock in Our Jangles ($21).

Race 3:
Looks to be a race in two - High Rollin' WOman and Black Minx. I will be betting on High Rollin' to turn the tables but a good outside chance is Cloudcatcher at $13.

Race 4:
A horse that lost to El Cambio by 2.5 lengths - whilst carrying equal weights. Comes in on 53 kgs. Paying $51??? Take Frosty each way and call it your roughie of the day.

Race 5:
Three roughies to like here.
1) Alverta ($17) - last first up run was a nose behind Takeover Target. Good enough for me here.
2) Sir Monashee ($13 allegedly will be more like $30)- owner of the hottest 1000 metre times in this field. That was three starts back. Last start looked like he was back - length behind your favourite Sectagonal. Has a good gate and could be too good.
3) Nessuno ($26) Owner of a 56.85 1,000 metre time with 62,5 kgs on his back!! Has 53 here and looks like he is coming back into form as well.

Race 6:
Will probably go with Riva San here, personally. However if you want some juicy odds, you could go worse than Rainbow Styling who has been solidly working through the classes to get here.

Race 7:
All of my favourite roughies here have shocking gates.
- Helideck
- Swiss Ace
- Snipers Bullet (now its dry)
- Absolut Glam
They could all go well though.

Am actually leaning towards Swick in the big one now..

Race 8:
Chevron Island ($26) - Country form around some decent horses. May stack up here.
By this time big Frosty will have made this all academic anyway.

Enjoy,
Professor.

Stradbroke Handicap Short Preview

The Captain's Straddy Guide

The Straddy is a race where either a). the leaders knock up but the backmarkers that sit at the tail are too far back in the big field or b). the leaders kick and the backmarkers are again too far back. Right then, I want something that will sit back but have 7-10 horses behind them. Alternatively you might go with the jockey who's the best in the country at miraculously bringing a horse through along the rail in Glen Colless but I think Black Ink was a better chance a couple of years ago. Personally, with pace from wide gates in Murtajill, Swiss Ace and Omnitrader also pushing forward I really think that the barrier is key here. With that in mind, the race is set up for Casino Prince and Pinnacles provided they settle somewhere in mid-field. Shouldn't be a problem for the Prince so that leaves me to plead with Rick Hore-Lacy and Craig Newitt, please don't ride Pinnacles cold! Not from barrier one, surely. The other two I want are Chinchilla Rose who from gate 15 should be able to settle somewhere in mid-field and I like Swiss Ace to hang on gamely if he can get to the rail from the start. I'll be boxing these four. Track will be dead at worst. I've been to Eagle Farm under similar conditions and have seen it go from slow before Race 1 to good before Race 7 so don't be surprised if it gets back to a dry Stradbroke.

Professor:
I agree with the Captain, you do want something that gets back - but not too far!
Thought it was going to be a wet track... Oh well. I love El Cambio for this race, barrier the only doubt but he could be too strong given any luck. Comes in fantastically at the weights and has to be a good chance. I also like Swiss Ace, Atapi, Helideck and Diplomatic Force. All have horrible gates but remain nice value. With everything that I like coming from the grandstand, I will have to spread the cash around a little bit - pimp style - and hope for one of them to get a bit of luck. With any luck yours have drawn better than mine.

WHAB's Doomben 10,000 Form Guide!!!

Professor Chaos' Executive Summary: If you couldn't be bothered reading all of my discussion below (you probably have ADHD), I can summarize this race as follows. Apache Cat very hard to beat. But you can't take $2.20 in a race like this.. can you? So the best chances to beat it are Murtajill (looks like this is its race), Reigning To Win, and Vormista. If $6 doesn't float your boat that much either then bigger fun-times can be had backing the Jackal or Helideck. Every thing else (***unless you have something insider on LA MONTAGNA***) is a pointless set your money on fire exercise.

My probable course of action is to load up on one of the horses on the second line (dependent on price) and then have a bit of cash on the other two roughies. Leaning towards Reigning To win at this stage as the best on the second line but many things change come race day. Will also be keyed into the market on La Montagna. If it moves...

1. Apache Cat (3) $2.20

PC: Even with all of the mystery blood tests in the world this horse should be hard to beat. The late charge from Vormista in the BTC Sprint lead me at the time to think that Vormista could turn the tables in the 10,000. A quick look at the two of these horses beyond 1200 metres tends to make you stick with the Cat. $2.20 is a risk in this field though. A big risk.

CC: Sure $2.20 is not a great price but that won't bother people who got a better price weeks ago like my good self. The Cat is awesome and is gunning for his fifth straight Group 1 race. There has been a lot of talk about how Vormista nearly beat him in the BTC Cup two weeks ago. Well nearly isn't good enough. Anyone who has keenly watched a replay of that race can see the Cat was edging away from Vormista at the line. The 1350m of the 10,000 holds no fears for the Cat but Vormista has a distance query. I'm sure the Cat will take improvement from his last run and am looking forward to watching him being crowned Doomben 10,000 champion trackside. Go the Cat!

2. Hard to Catch (10) $71

PC: Probably not here.

CC: Will be pretty easy to catch here. Trainer Pat Duff has even conceded that he is in the field because there is good prizemoney down to fifth. Just not quite in the class of some of these other runners.

3. Reigning to Win (8) $5.50

PC: I don't really know what to do with this guy. Came back and put in an okay run. Probably wasn't suited by the heavy. Probably found the Cat over 1200 far too sharp first up... All that could help him reverse the 2.8L result. Would love to have seen a run between then and now though. Or a trial. Or something... Heavy Hitter Bowman on board. (NOT THE BOSS) Hurrah!

CC: There's talent in this fellow, I just get the feeling he has been the victim of circumstances. Wet tracks, being tried over 2000m, in hindsight perhaps being set for the wrong races. A real chance, ticks at the distance and track, though has to beat the Cat at WFA here.

4. The Jackal (5) $31

CC: Just doesn't have the class to win. Looks okay at WFA and might be able to sneak a place.

PC: Put in a booming run last start against the Cat. Looked to be gobbling up the leading group in another 100. Problem with the Cat is that you watch his races and think that he can't go any further and then next start he wins again. Maybe?? $31 says why not? Paul St. Vincent, the trainer of The Jackal is an interesting case. He had to work another job for years (like Cabbie Joe Janiak) to make his racing dreams come true.

Trainer of The Jackal: Paul St. Vincent...

Former career of Paul St. Vincent - heckling muppet.

5. Double Dare (9) $21

PC: Prefer the guy above at a much better quote. Can't see any sensible reason to think that the Dare can win this.

CC: Another place chance given he has improved since his 1.5L 6th this track/distance in last year's BTC Sprint. That was his third last run and he probably needed some more hard racing before a Doomben 10,000.

6. Helideck (7) $13

CC: Here's your knockout. At $13 he is the best value runner in the field. Keeps jumping the hurdles put in front of him; however, this hurdle is really high. He has to jump over the Cat! WFA may be his undoing but for mine he is the most likely to spring a surprise win.

PC: Makes me want to back him with the last two starts... Where on earth has this horse come from??? Progressing swiftly through the grades and this is his big test. Going from a friendly weight against some classy Brisbane horses to Weight For Age against the Cat. That's the BIG query here. In spite of that, I'll have something reasonable on Helideck.

7. Murtajill (4) $4.60

CC: Don't think three year olds come in that well at WFA. He has good lead up form and will be hard to hold out if the track favours the leaders though I never really want to be on a leader in a Doomben 10,000. It's high pressure and more often than not the pacesetters have had enough at the top of the straight. No doubt has ability but I think others offer much better value

PC: Maybe this is the perfect race for Murtajill. Sits forward and gave Racing to Win something to catch in his last start. If the track is suiting the on pace types, you have to give this guy a chance.

8. Turffontein (11) $71

PC: I like saying the name of this horse with a Tappa Henning South African Rugby Referee (TM) voice. It makes me smile. I'm smiling now.

CC: Or a South African Super 14 commentator accent; "Lovely jinking run from Turffontein". Would be stretching it a bit to think he could win this. A perfectly timed storm could see his ears prick up though.

9. La Montagna (1) $41

CC: It's hard to work out horses when coming back from long injury layoffs. She seems to be going okay but is probably still a little underdone. Certainly worth a place bet on the chance she finds her best.

PC: Could be working up to something big. Maybe in two weeks on Straddie day, rather than here though. Follow the market. You know that it is up to this kind of race. But is it ready to roll???

10. Juste Momente (2) $31

PC: Not here... not the worst.. this the testing material... (insert your own form guide cliche and save me the trouble!)

CC: Not keen. Place preferred. Looking to others. Pass. How's that PC?

11. Vormista (12) $7

CC: Too much has been made of the BTC Cup. A good horse but the Cat will have her measure over this trip and possibly other runners will as well.

PC: Could turn the tables on the Cat. Will need luck from the barrier. Can beat anyone on his day though so the price looks fair.

12. Tan Tat De Lago (6) $51

CC: On form it would be mind boggling if she won and quite puzzling if she placed. However I'm prepared to give her a place chance because of her trainer's uncanny knack of springing surprises with travelling horses.

PC: Is this a Class 6 field?? No. Okay. Then I probably will leave TTDL well alone.

Your WHAB Doomben Cup Preview

Well the Doomben Cup is on on Saturday! 2020m at Weight for Age. The field this year looks a lot better than in previous years, with some big winners at their last starts headlining this field. Scenic Shot, fresh off his win in the Hollindale is the favourite at $5 and looks to be hard to beat. Though, the next line of betting which features Eskimo Queen (Fresh off a great win in the Sydney Carnival), Sarrera (who can count Tuesday Joy amongst his scalps in his last start) and Viewed would probably have been very short priced favourites in prior runnings of this race. Cinque Cento and Above Deck are your most recent winners. And a real horse of quality - Defier - won this race in 2004.

JB is on sabbatical. In Haiti building houses for orphans. Or some such.

So to this years field:

1. Grand Zulu (59) $21

Captain Carnage: Wins the BMW as a three year old easily beating Mummify and Makybe Diva. Latest run a 2.1L 3rd in the Wagga Wagga Gold Cup...if would be fair to say his halcyon days are behind him.

Professor Chaos: Certainly hasn't shown alot in the last few years. Coming up to Brisbane for the carnival is possibly it's last chance to show something.. anything. This is a fairly hot field by Doomben Cup standards so you should probably be looking elsewhere. It's a shame because the Zulu could've been anything 3 years ago. Weight for age is a plus with this horse, as in handicap racing it still gets punished for its deeds of '04. Maybe this horses best chance is a head-to-head race with Railings in the "hit's of yesteryear" handicap. I'd back him in that.

2. Scenic Shot (59) $5

Captain Carnage: A deserved favourite. Was second in the Group 1 Turnbull to Devil Moon last spring, second to Marasco at WFA in Perth and won the Hollindale last week with perhaps a bit in hand. Looks tough enough and has obviously been set for this.

Professor Chaos: Coming in off a big win at the Gold Coast in the Hollindale. Has mixed it with some of the top horses in its career and may just have a class edge. I'm not backing him, but that doesn't mean that I don't think he's in this. I just like Viewed more.

3. Sarrera (59) $8

Captain Carnage: I really was stunned by his win in the Queen Elizabeth. Could he do that again? A few of those he beat were backing up/at the end of their campaigns but he won so easily that I can't even think of writing him off here. Big chance, especially with a spot of rain.

Professor Chaos: Mudlark of sorts, who is coming off a big win at Randwick in the Queen Elizabeth. The talk after the race was that it found some wet ground to run on?? How does that help. Horses who like the mud still run quicker times on the dry. They just do less badly on the mud than other horses. Anyway, Sarrera is a hard one to line up. I think it is well and truly good enough to win.


4. Emerald Jack (59) $41

Captain Carnage: One of the nice roughies in the field. Doubt that WFA will suit but is very capable at this distance. You can see yourself getting stuck behind a group of young lasses in the betting line each putting $1 each way on Emerald Jack when they could possibly pool their money and put in one $20 each way bet which would at least give you time to get to the fence. Serenity now.


Professor Chaos: Serenity now, insanity later. You'd be hard pressed to find a better $41 shot than this. Rattled home and lost by 1.8L to Nuclear Sky. In case you haven't noticed: Nuclear Sky is so hot right now. Maybe a few drops of rain could help.


5. Stormhill (59) $26

Captain Carnage: This horse has frustrated me many times but that was maybe because he was being set for races like the Stradbroke rather than more suitable trips. Not far off Scenic Shot in the Hollindale but I personally don't think he can turn the tables here. A definite chance nevertheless and at a nice price.


Professor Chaos: Part of the bunch that weren't too far behind Scenic Shot at the Coast. Comes into it here as a leader with the short straight of Doomben. I can just see myself willing him home there.

6. Spinney (59) $12

Captain Carnage: Surprised me a little with his strong frontrunning run behind Scenic Shot at the Coast. That must surely have been his career best run however and it will take another career best run to win this. Will be thereabouts but ultimately I think Scenic Shot is the better horse.


Professor Chaos: Sat forward and was brave in the Hollindale. At Doomben it has the chance to go one better. Probably can find more to like about others at that price though.


7. Legendary Man (59) $31


Captain Carnage: Has good form over this distance but that may be a bit misleading. His best run this time in was over 1400 in the Newmarket at Newcastle. I can't see how he's going to go from running third to Fulmonti in a Group 3 handicap to winning a Doomben Cup at WFA.

Professor Chaos: Agree with the Captain here. Was a nice run behind Fulmonti, and I would back him to beat that field this week. This field however is a very different proposition.

8. Rampant Lion (59) $41

Captain Carnage: One that ran surprisingly well at WFA last start and given his price and okay form you're entitled to box him in your trifectas and first fours. This is definitely as far as he wants it though so be prepared to miss out on the trifecta or first four by let's say one place, maybe two...Doesn't it give you the royal shits when that happens. I'm primarily talking about you and your last 100m in the 2003 Melbourne Cup Zagalia!

Professor Chaos: Went backwards late in the Hollindale. Obviously given his 4/1 quote in that affair someone has some wraps on him. Not for me.

9. Viewed (59) $5.50

Captain Carnage: Wow, that last run was hot. Hot like Hansel. Weight for age a bit of a query but like I said, he's so hot right now.

Professor Chaos: Getting to weight for age is the ONLY query on this fellow. I could have made a case for Musket or Nuclear Sky in this field a couple of weeks ago. Then this guy put 4 Lenghts on those two!!! This is my top pick by a considerable margin. Indeed he is so hot right now. I can't express to you just how big a tick of approval this gets from the Professor.

10. Luvuleo (59) $101

Captain Carnage: If he's going to teach colts to run real good then he's going to have to be faster...at least three times faster!

Professor Chaos: Finished behind Grand Zulu in the Wagga Cup. You'd be hard pressed backing the Zulu in this field. You'd be even harder pressed backing the thing that is giving it 3.0 kgs back on that last start. PASS, PASS, PASS.

11. Eskimo Queen (56.5) $5.50

Captain Carnage: I have voiced my concerns about Eskimo Queen and her lack of consistency before. However, she loves Brisbane. A big chance if she turns up.

Professor Chaos: Eskimo Queen is in my "never to back again" bin. You have to think that this race could suit her but, not with my cash. Maybe it will lash out at Viewed in the gates and ass punch me like in the Caulfield cup when I had a nice bit of cash on Maldivian at fixed odds. Screw you Eskimo Queen.

12. Like It Is (56.5) $15

Captain Carnage: I'll tell it like it is; I think connections are wasting time and money sending this one up here. $15...I call shenanigans!

Professor Chaos: Lost to Benson (And possibly Mr Belvedere) in his last start. Pass.

13. Reggie (56.5) $21

Captain Carnage: Will be fit as a fiddle for this. Interestingly didn't go on to the Sydney Cup but was kept for this. $21 is a nice price punters.

Professor Chaos: Hard to not be interested in a horse of this quality at a price like that. 2000 is her best trip from what I have seen. Great Value.

14. Lasoron (56.5) $15

Captain Carnage: Would like to see her drift in the market. Could definitely get interested if the price is right. Ran on nicely in the Hollindale and probably prefer her to the second and third horses there over the longer trip at Doomben. Could be the knockout.

Professor Chaos: Tough to have this at $15. Made some top late ground in the Hollindale. A good chance but I would take a little more value to be interested.

15. Trick of Light (56.5) $12

Captain Carnage: Would take some trickery indeed for an Adelaide mile winner to pop up and pinch this. $12...great value. You might as well back a greyhound at the same price and hope for the best. Much better value for money.

Professor Chaos: Don't you listen to the CAPTAIN. You should never ever back a greyhound. You should also leave this horse well alone. Last time I saw this run this kind of trip it was against WHAB SUPERSTAR MOLOTOV. Pass.

16. Lectrice (56.5) $41

Captain Carnage: Might be aiming a bit too high here and perhaps trying to run too far.

Professor Chaos: No. Maybe this race would be more suitable

17. Mission Critical (55.5) (EM) $13

Captain Carnage: If he gets a run will be first turning for home...Just don't rate him at $13. Ridiculous price. If he gets a run will probably be at about $8. And like I said, will be first turning for home...

Professor Chaos: If this horse gets a start it could be real knockout material. Bowls along in front, nice weight, short Doomben Straight... Trained by the sneakiest man in world racing. Moroney always finds the right races for his horses.

What to do with my last $50 trackside.

Well bugger me, I'm not usually up this early on a Saturday but these are the sacrifices we here at WHAB are prepared to make. My racing tips for this week:

$20 on Ortensia in MR4

$14 on Acorns in BR4

$8 on Babinda Half in BR5

$8 on Fulmonti in BR6

A can I just say go the Cat! Everyone loves the Cat.

Sydney Cup Last Chance $50

Keeping it simple so everyone can feel the warm thrill of backing a winner:

$30 Nose No wine, No Song
$5 E/W Young Centaur
$10 Place Grand Destiny

Done, will be posting weekend sport tips shortly.

What To Do With My Last 2 x $50 Instalments

SYDNEY CUP:

$30 to win on No Wine No Song
$4 each way on Young Centaur
$4 each way on Grand Destiny
$2 each way on the Chieftain

SPORT:

$20 on City to win vs Country @ $2.50
$10 on West Coast to win vs Carlton @ $2.30
$10 on Richmond to win vs St. Kilda @ $2.45
$10 on Western Bulldogs to win vs Sydney @ $2.65

Go the Captain!

Professor's punting - $50 for the Sydney Cup and $50 for Sports...

A nice easy combined post for my $100 for the weekend. Not a weekend of Sport that I am too fussed on betting on. The League markets don't give me any value to get excited about, nor do the AFL markets.

What to do??
Well, the only sports bet that I like for the weekend is the Waratahs to beat the Bulls away. After the Waratahs strong win at home to the Sharks on the weekend, I think that they can back up in Pretoria. The Tah's don't typically spank any team, so the 1-12 win looks about right. $25 on that @$2.90.

For the rest of my "sports" betting I am looking at the Champagne at Randwick tomorrow. Two runs last weekend caught the eye. Glowlamp and Samantha Miss look like they could turn the tables on Sebring over the 1600m. $15 on Samantha Miss and $10 on the Lamp.

Now to the Sydney Cup. The only horse in this field that I would fancy a few $$ on each way on the first Tuesday in November is Lacey Underall. Looks to run a strong 3200, horse very much on the up... $12 each way.

$10 on Young Centaur to win.. Could be a really good stayer in the making.

$4/$4 on Grand Destiny. This horse is insanely good value.
$2/$3 on Tails of Triomphe. Ditto.
$3 win Lazer Sharp. If he can turn it around, there is some lovely value.

So there you have it... The Professor's best tips for the weekend. I am leaving out No Wine, No Song because I wouldn't be willing to put as much on it as the other guys, so it won't be a good result for me regardless. Will probably have some of my own on it though. It is a top chance. I do think there is a lot of fun for the value shoppers in this one.

Good luck!
Professor.

WHAB Presents: Your Sydney cup Preview Post

Well, Saturday at Randwick we have another BIG race. The Sydney Cup.

Staying racing in Australia is typically, well... not the best. Generally speaking, it won't be as hard as the Golden Slipper or the Doncaster to rule a line through some of the horses that are racing. It is thus my hope that this thing doesn't become as arduous as the last two big preview posts. Another big hope for us is that we don't end up with no winners between the three of us, yet again. The horror of last week in the past, but not forgotten... and here goes.

The Sydney Cup acheived group one status in 1980. And the Honour Roll, whilst including champions like Makybe Diva, Kingston Town and Tie the Knot also includes a lot of horses that pay homage to the lack of real class in this field in most years.

Take your last three winners; Gallic, County Tyrone and Mahtoum.

You'd love to own them, but you typically don't think about them in the same breath as the Melbourne Cup winners over the same period.

I would love to see old County Tyrone repeat his 2006 success in this race. The much travelled warhorse deserves to be well in the market and would provide a great story if he got up here. No Wine No Song comes in with a striking win last weekend under his belt, and is a deserved favourite. Pentathon has been set for this and been travelling around in better company than this lately. The Fuzz was favourite for this race until his last start disaster. Can he bounce back?? Lacey Underall has had massive wraps as a stayer in the making for a long time - but has become a costly one to follow.

Realistically, one of us should come through with the good oil this week. A dodgy staying affair will hopefully save our flagging reputations...So who you got?

1. County Tyrone 57kg (13)
Price: $11

One Sydney Cup, two Sydney CUPS???

Professor Chaos: Has been prepared for this race, and ONLY this race. 3200 metres is about the only trip that this guy can compete over these days, but my can he compete at this distance. Won here in 2006, has put in some decent runs in the Melbourne Cup in his day. Really can win.

JB: For emotional betters, betting for nostalgia - You will probably see me with something on him come the bell.

Captain Carnage: Grand old stager who has a win, two seconds and a fourth in the five Sydney Cups he has contested. His lead up form is good and is capable in all conditions. It would be nice to see him win and he is a good value at $11. We'll find out tomorrow if time has caught up with him.

2. The Fuzz 56.5kg (4)

Price: $9

Professor Chaos: Looked like he might love the swamp at Rosehill his last time out, and then - well, didn't. Was well beaten (26 Lengths!!!) there. Scratched from last years Melbourne Cup, so we have never seen him attempt this distance. I had him down as a lightweight hope in the Melbourne Cup last year. So on that he has to be in with a chance. With the second top weight here and last starts disaster though, you have to be a little wary.

JB: Price hardly reflects the risk.

Captain Carnage: Repeating my general rule, I can't back a horse with such a bad run in it's lead up. And his was a real stinker when everything pointed to him being a mudlark. Must be something wrong that the vet's haven't picked up as he is far better than that. Here, given the circumstances and the fact he is untried and a query over the trip, he is entitled to be at much longer odds.



3. Pentathon 56.o kg (6)
Price: $6

Professor Chaos: Another one of these that has been crying out for the extra trip. Came from last to 5th behind Tuesday Joy in the BMW. Looks to be a serious stayer... Hard not to be excited by his prospects on Saturday. Will get a big pull in the weights against the Chieftain and No Wine No Song as opposed to two starts back.

JB: Not going to be my horse on the day.

Captain Carnage: A genuine stayer who gets a bit of relief in the weights. Likes it wet and dry and his run was super behind Tuesday Joy but his run was far from super in the Auckland Cup over the same trip. Can be a bit up and down. A winning chance but not sure the $6 is great value.

4. Lazer Sharp 55.5 kg (17)
Price: $26

Professor Chaos: Basing your opinion on current form, you must think that the Sharpy is hard to have. Didn't handle the conditions last start, and was looking like he was building to something before that.

JB: Not this horse, not this race.

Captain Carnage: Hmm, a horse definitely capable of greeting the judge here even without an eyecatcher in his runs leading into this. Was a very credible 10th in last year's Melbourne Cup, so the ability is there; the only question is whether he can put it together tomorrow. Probably a better horse the Melbourne way of going but one I'll be throwing into my multi's.

5. No Wine, No Song 55.5 kg (9)
Price: $4.60

Professor Chaos: Looks almost bombproof for this one. Last three starts on differing conditions have been exceptional. Will likely get the trip without too many concerns. Handled the heavy better than the rest last week which may have skewed the result a bit. Will, at the very least make you feel like a winner at some point.

JB: Deserved favourite, definitely at the top of the list.

Captain Carnage: Favourite for the Cup after his strong win in the Chairman's and rightly so. Couple with that the fact he was third in this race last year and is no doubt over the trip, has likely improved since then and handles all conditions it's hard to see him not being in the finish. The one to beat.

6. Young Centaur 55.0 kg (1)
Price: $12

Professor Chaos: If you look at the last run, it is a pretty strong set of credentials that the Centaur brings into this race. Got back and made a lot of late ground on the Cheiftain and No Wine in the Manion. Has won over the trip once from two starts and encountered a bog in the other start which doesn't look like his go. Well Weighted... good chance.

JB: Plenty to fancy at $12, will have to factor

Captain Carnage: On face value I thought his Auckland Cup run was disappointing but his stats suggest he likes it no worse than dead which may bring him into play. His run in the Manion was solid and he meets The Chieftain 3.5kg's better. Should run the trip right out and is one of the better fancies.

7. Red Lord 54.5 kg (14)

Price: $9

Professor Chaos: Has strong claims but at $9 I don't think that I can buy into the Red Lord story. At longer odds, I prefer the Centaur, the COUNT and the FUZZ.

JB: Not a story I'll be reading this weekend.

Captain Carnage: When a horse is at $9, he needs it dry and I have a distance query on him to run a strong two miles in Group 1 company then I would conclude that he's no value whatsoever. Sure his last run can be put down to the conditions but all the same, it was far from an ideal preparation. Prefer others at better odds.

8. Exinite 54 kg (15)

Price: $14

Professor Chaos: If you can't shop better than $14 about Exinite on raceday there is something seriously wrong. In his favour, he made excellent late ground last start. Coming from the tail of the field. Obviously looks like 3200 metres will be a laugh but whether he can get it done remains to be seen.

JB: Not in this class.

Captain Carnage: Not convinced he'll get the trip...in time to win the race. Looks to be thereabouts a lot without looking like winning. Meets No Wine No Song 3kg's worse for being beaten 3.6 lengths. Not keen at $14.

9. Grand Destiny 54kg (14)

Price: $41

Professor Chaos: Following a less travelled road to the Sydney Cup. Defeated the handy stayer Tails of Triomphe at Caulfield over near enough to 2400 (What kind of retarded distance is 2394??? Fuck you Caulfield). Then came out won at Flemington over 2500. Beating: ELWOOD! As soon as I saw that I started humming blues brothers shit. Awesome. $41 is Juicy for a horse that has had a pretty fine run to this. Will be investing in some way.

JB: I got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, its dark and I'm wearing sunglasses - HIT IT.

Captain Carnage: An interesting runner, well worth making the trip north for connections with the Sydney Cup not usually being a star-studded field. Showed his mastery at the specialist distance of 2394m and backed that up with another win over the more mundane distance of 2500m. It would have been nice to see him run the Sydney way before this race but still the $41 doesn't look the silliest of bets. Each way chance.


10. Lacey Underall 54.0 kg (10)
Price: $13

Professor Chaos: I have been hearing a lot about this horse and it's potential as a stayer for a long time. Never quite put it together in a Melbourne Campaign last spring. But has come back this year to win an Adelaide Cup over this trip and was probably the owner of the best late sectionals in the Manion. My top pick.

JB: Plenty to like, will struggle against the likes of the wine song.

Captain Carnage: Hard to knock a horse with a win over the two miles and meets The Chieftain 2kg's better in the weights on the Manion run. Is sure to be among the fittest in the field but a poorly timed downpour will surely ruin her chances. If the track totally dries out she's a big chance.

11. Lang 54.0 (3)

Price: $26

Professor Chaos: If the Clubber couldn't do any better than 2.7 L fifth on his much loved heavy last week, he won't win this.

JB: Pass

Captain Carnage: The wetter the better for this fellow. Doubt he has the class despite a big finish at his last run. However, is another one that meets No Wine No Song worse in the weights. Others seem to offer more than he does for his $26.

12. Resolution 54.0 kg (12)
Price: $11

Professor Chaos: Talking bout a Resolution... Your best run in the Chairmans. Give him a dry track over 3200?? Could do anything. Has had so few runs on dry tracks over any meaningful trip.. it makes it hard to say whether he wants the sting out of the ground or not.

JB: Keep talking, it won't happen this weekend

Captain Carnage: Although it's hard to fathom a horse who has only won one race winning a Group 1 he has good form over the distance and comfortably beat home Young Centaur and Pentathon. Nice run in the Chairman's but will concede 2kg's to the winner there. Should be fit and hitting the line hard. Rain will aid his cause. A chance.

13. Sir James 54.0 kg (7)
Price: $23

Professor Chaos: Hard for me to enthuse. Didn't run on too much in the Chairmans. You know that someone will give you that Cummings factor crap. That's why he is shorter than he should be.

JB: Bart Cummingsblah blah blah ...

Captain Carnage: Like Exinite, looks like he'll get the trip but not quick enough to be winning a Sydney Cup. Always thereabouts, 3 or 4 lengths behind No Wine No Song (who has less weight here). Find others more appealing.


14. Tails of Triomphe 54.0 kg (8)
Price: $31

Professor Chaos: Another one that is great value. Was just warming up in the Chairmans when he crossed the line. Has shown that 3200 will suit. Great value.

JB: Not this race.

Captain Carnage: Another Melbourne visitor capable of running a cheeky race. Somehow carries the same weight as Lacey Underall after the third in the Adelaide Cup, where they also carried the same weight. Add this one to the long list that meet said Chairman's winner worse at the weights. A place chance.


15. The Chieftain 54.0 kg (11)
Price: $17

Professor Chaos: Wants it bone dry does the Chieftain. Hard to knock anything about his form leading into last week. Wants it bone dry.

JB: You know who also likes the bone - the professor, all night long. In this race expect the Chief to be giving it from behind the top three.

Captain Carnage: Now let's not get personal lads. These inconsistent horses drive me crazy. Spanked one week, wins the Manion the next week, only to pantsed albeit on heavy ground soon after. Anything dead or better and he's got to be a real knockout chance. Possibly a distance query. Possibly not. And need I say it, the weight turnaround with the favourite is 3.5kg not to the good. On his Manion run has the ability so he goes into the exotics.

16. Play Me 52.5 (2)
Price: $71

Professor Chaos: Hard to enthuse. The good run behind Sky Biscuit is okay for easier.

JB: Pass

Captain Carnage: Doesn't appear to have the strongest formlines. Untried at the distance and I have a question mark right there. At that price is sure to attract the attention of any trackside hen's party punters to the tune of a buck each way.

17. Philosophe
Price: EM.

The GOOD oil:

Professor Chaos: I walked into this preview honestly thinking that his $50 would be best spent on No Wine, No Song and leaving it at that. Then I thought that you couldn't knock Pentathon.. Right now, I am looking at three horses that I think are phenomenal chances. Pentathon - set for this and will relish the 3200. The other two that I can't get past are Lacey Underall and Resolution. Both put in booming runs in their last starts and you have to think that they will be hard to hold out in the shadow of the post. If you want some rough hopes, then how can you go past Grand Destiny and Tails of Triomphe??

No wine no song is a very hard horse to top in this, so I am nowhere near writing it off but I think that there is a lot of better value floating around. Would love to see the COUNT salute.. one of my favourite horses.

The real spanner in the works could come from No Wine No Song getting to walk out front. Lazer Sharp and Play me are the only obvious leaders and if they are allowed to walk, then No Wine No Song could be nigh on untouchable.

1. Lacey Underall

2. Young Centaur

3. No Wine, No Song

4. Grand Destiny

5. Pentathon

Others of note are Lazer Sharp, Tails of Triomphe, Resolution.

JB: The more you look into it the less there is to look for. No Wine No Song will be receiving the bulk of the funds on the nose with an each way flutter on Young Centaur and Grand Destiny. Now excuse me while I kiss the sky.

Captain's Catch:

Consistency; tick. Distance; tick. Track; tick. Conditions; tick. Weighted to win; tick. It's No Wine No Song to win. My selections:

1. No Wine No Song
2. Grand Destiny
3. Young Centaur
4. Lacey Underall (to be replaced by Lazer Sharp if wet)

Working around these five with The Chieftain in trifecta and first four betting.