Cox Plate Preview with Professor and the Captain:

Lets talk Cox Plate:

Weak, weak looking Cox Plate field. One has to think that the field would have been more interesting had the Hussler focused on this race instead of the ill-fated 2400 metre tilt. We said it a lot on this blog, backers of the Hussler at $2 for this race and the Caulfield Cup were likely to end up with egg on their faces and after a weak run to the line last Saturday he is not even here. You won't get your money back. Alan Eskander and Rob Waterhouse and that bald guy that Andrew Voss seems to love are thinking about giving the rest of the carnival a miss and going to Hawaii. You have made some very bad people happy, stupid fans of the Hussler and you should all be very ashamed.

And if that wasn't enough, you are now backing Septimus (who would have been my horse if it was Septimus Prime) after beating nothing in Ireland and the books will smile more.

Anyway, Cox Plate. Weak field dominated by a 3 y.o. filly and a Kiwi horse that will likely get too far back at the Valley. I'm avoiding the favourites, though of the two I would take Princess Coup - while the Captain's concern (to follow) about a lack of pace is a real problem, I think that the Kelt form has been franked while the Sydney fillies form is a big ???. For my $$$$ I am looking elsewhere - Theseo and Alamosa are the ones to follow here. At big odds I will take a stayer as well each way. Was leaning towards Zarita, but prior success at the Valley leads me to Master O'Reilly.

1. SIRMIONE (59.0) 8

Professor: Intriguing runner. I thought that the Caulfield Cup may have suited him better on the lead in to the Melbourne Cup but is such a smart horse in good hands that this may be a winnable race for him. Any good kind of a run and watch the Cummings $$$ trail.

Captain: As we have seen in his Mackinnon and Australian Cup wins, has more than enough ability to beat this field. However, Moonee Valley with it's 173m straight, hosted neither of those two races. Thinking you'll be better off waiting for this one to boom home down the vast expanses of the Flemington straight in another Mackinnon, unless a miracle path opens up along the rail. More likely, he'll be 13 deep round the turn, and by the time he gets warm we'll already know who's won the 2008 Cox Plate.

2. MALDIVIAN (59.0) 6

Professor: Likely his best trip after the Caulfield Cup showing. Can only strip fitter after the Caulfield Cup and as an on pace type not without a chance.

Captain: You would think he is just not going well enough. Will be getting swamped as they start to turn and after a tough Caulfield Cup run, I just can't have him. I'd be sure that the only reason he is running is the lack of quality in the field this year. Pass.

3. ZIPPING (59.0) 5

Professor: Very short odds for a stayer who will get a long way back at the Valley. Needs a genuine tempo up front but you can say that for a lot of these (Princess Coup, Master, Sirmione, C'est).

Captain: Similar to Sirmione, will get a long way back and as such, you would think Moonee Valley won't suit. His results here have been good however, and no matter what anyone else says, this is his best trip. Provided the speed is on. Was 6.5L 8th in this race in a far better field last year. I think he'll run well without winning, just to top him off for another 4th in the Melbourne Cup. But seriously, I am not bitter about him ruining my hot Melbourne Cup streak at all.

4. THESEO (59.0) 12

Professor: Defied drawing the carpark for a superb win last start. Drawn wide again, but the combination of career best form and his on pace tendencies make this my best tip. In 2007, he won over 2,200 metres in Brisbane so the trip not beyond him. If they were giving out MacDonalds Vouchers to a most improved horse, it's him.

Captain: Oh boy. Any other year I would scoff at suggestions of Theseo winning a Cox Plate, but he's in with a good shot at this one. On pace, yes. Good form, yes. Melbourne way of going, ??? I've seen many a Sydney horse, particularly those Waterhouse-trained, get it all wrong when they reverse direction. Especially at the Valley. That's my only knock on him. In with a big show.

5. MASTER O'REILLY (59.0) 11

Professor: This is just a run for the Master one imagines. He should be rock hard on the first Tuesday in November. Look for him to be running on late and if he is, definitely start thinking about the Cup! At big odds, his fitness and past successes at this track makes him an intriguing each way proposition.

Captain: Danny O'Brien has said as much, that he took one look at the possible Cox Plate field and thought "why not"? Just a final top-off run. Should be too dour to be winning this at this stage of the campaign. If he wins this, I will have to question his dourness to win the Melbourne Cup.

6. RAHEEB (59.0) 10

Professor: Diabolical performance as a hotpot in the Epsom. Clearly didn't handle the soft track. Returned a little better in his first crack in Melbourne in the Toorak. This would take a big improvement but probably has it in him.

Captain: Wary that I trashed the prospects of Barbaricus last week and have eaten humple punter's pie for dinner every night this week, I will simply say this: not for me.

7. ALAMOSA (57.5) 7

Professor: My other big runner in this one. Last start was sooooooo impressive. Back to WFA which is a concern, but hard to leave out after the last one. Remember, he wasn't far away from the Hussler and co over what is clearly that horses best trip. Looked like he had another 400 metres in him (plus change!) in the Toorak.

Captain: I sound like a broken record but Mick Price said during the week that he hadn't even considered the Cox Plate until he looked at the possible line-up. Not sure about this fella at WFA. I am probably going to leave him out, think he is under the odds, but certainly wouldn't shock me if he got up.

8. C'EST LA GUERRE (57.5) 3

Professor: Nice run in the Yalumba where he was the only one who defied the bias to come pretty close to the first three. Inclined to risk but not without reservations.

Captain: Any moisture on the track, no matter how seemingly insignificant, and he comes into calculations. Does he have the class to win? Let's ask!
WHAB: "So CLG, can you spring a bit of an upset in the Coxy?!"
CLG (in deep Max Walker-ish voice): "That bloody great big storm cloud up there says I can...!"

9. PRINCESS COUP (57.0) 9

Professor: Passing because at those odds you want to avoid something that will get so far back at the Valley. Like many others will need some serious pace on out the front. Red Ruler and Nom De Jeu didn't half frank that Kelt formline last start.

Captain: She's a great mare and you wouldn't begrudge her this, but where will she sit? Can she mow down Samantha Miss giving her 9.5kg and a big head start? Would have kept C. Newitt in the saddle for this one, no matter how good Opium Bosson rides her across the ditch. The Valley is unique. C.Newitt knows his way around there. A massive chance nonetheless.

10. GALLANT TESS (57.0) 4

Professor: Looks to be giving up a class edge to Theseo. That combined with the fact that 2000 metres has never looked like what Tess wants means I am looking elsewhere.

Captain: Wouldn't be the silliest bet of all time, but I don't like her chances at the trip, WFA and the Valley circuit. Really looks to be best suited in handicap races, probably in Sydney. I will save her for such an occasion.

11.ZARITA (55.5) 1

Professor: Flopped in the Turnbull last start, though runs prior had a lot of merit. Could do something at hopefully very big odds. Anyway keep your eyes on the Z for later at least.

Captain: If she can park just behind the leaders, I think she can run a nice race at nice odds. You have to forgive horses who aren't named Weekend Hussler for one bad run as well. Hyland put her run down to being ridden too close to the speed. Will throw her in a few fancy trifectas and first four's, can't really see any reason not to. Would be a bit of a surprise if she won, place preferred.

12. SAMANTHA MISS (47.5) 2

Professor: Hard to knock. First go at this kind of trip, and you have to have some concerns about coming from 3 y.o. Fillies races in Sydney to the Cox though. So I guess I have a couple of big doubts. The Sydney 3.y.o.s didn't really have their form franked in the Guineas either.

Captain: Yes the Sydney 3.y.o. fillies that she has smashed all Spring long look below average. And yes Miss Finland could only manage 6th as a 3.y.o. in this race. But Samantha Miss did knock off Sebring who is a pretty handy customer at the back end of the 2.y.o season. And she will not have to contend with Fields Of Omagh, El Segundo and Pompeii Ruler as Miss Finland did. Princess Coup, Zipping and Alamosa don't seem quite so imposing. Think she'll get a handy spot from the gate and will win. If she gets the trip and handles the track and doesn't win, it will almost certainly be a Glen Boss butchering, a la Snitzel in the 2005 Magic Millions.

Sex and The City the Movie (DVD) Presents The Professors STAR STABLE UPDATE

If you've come here hoping to follow the exploits of horseface, dirty-whore, the kind of doable one and the other fine role models that I'm sure you're girlfriend thinks are just ace, bad luck.

          They hit the line and it's PARKER by a nose. A long nose.

If you are here for the sage advice of Australia's 3817th best Fantasy Horseracing tipster, then put your slippers on, boil the pot and get ready for two paragraphs of genius.

This week; Cox Plate. I have a few of my stable "stars" in action: Samantha Miss aims to fly the flag as stable superstar. That's not going to get me into the Star Stable thick of things though. Let's think rough, Theseo looks a great addition as it won't be in too many stables and I think it is a fantastic show in an historically weak Cox Plate. Another that must consider itself a good chance in a Cox Plate that gets more ordinary by the instant is Alamosa. Not far off the fallen champ over the champs best distance, wants 2000 metres and oh yeah, loves to sit on pace.

Zipping must come into the calculations as well. You want him around next Tuesday and now might be a decent time to get him in. Sirmione and Efficient are nigh on essential adds at this juncture as well. Tough Call. In the end I decided to take one horse based on "this week" and one with the Cup in mind. For the Cox only; Theseo for $100,000 seemed too good to pass up. For the Cox/Melbourne double: Zipping for $150,000 seems like one to have. It was tempting to drop Samantha Miss  - reason being, everyone has it in their stable and a win for the Miss won't get me out of trouble. But you have to stay safe. As I said, there are rock-solid cases to add Alamosa, Sirmione or Efficient this week as well. Tough  week. Not as tough as an hour of watching Sex in the City with your missus though. 

The Daily Telegraph manages not to completely lose its sense of perspective

Australia's disappointing 320 run loss to India has brought a few things to light about the Australian tilt. One: the batting looks very thin when Matthew Hayden, Ricky Ponting and Mike Hussey are out of form. Two: We lack a quality spinner. As much as the selection of Siddle over Bollinger and Bracken has copped some serious flack, he looked the best of the very punchless Australian attack and that is a problem. 

In a series like this, carrying injured and out of form players has been a massive issue for the Australian team, as such the Daily Telegraph has called for the addition of another. Andrew Symonds, of whom the author is a massive fan is not the answer to the Australian teams woes in India. Whilst the Telegraph has surveyed Australian cricket fans on the streets of Lakemba and found 70% in favour of shipping Symonds to India and even manufactured a Qantas boarding pass to India to make their case even more obvious, one must argue that this has been poorly thought out. Andrew Symonds in form is a match winner. His off spin may provide some use against an Indian side that seem to be weak against off spin. His bat would at its best provide a counterpunch that could put Australia on the front foot.

In saying all of this, Andrew Symonds is not in form. Andrew Symonds out of form is one of crickets most heartbreaking sights. Out of form Symonds lives in two worlds, either dancing down the track first ball and throwing away his wicket or doing his best poor mans Katich and looking lost. Either way he won't help in this state. Yet Mike Whitney, the Brett Kenny of Australian cricket (ie. the retired player who always has something incredibly stupid to say to the press) thinks it is a fantastic idea, and so does Barry from Lakemba. Australian selectors, make this happen.

From this authors perspective, the signs of Australia's demise in India this year have been glaring from a long way out. India in Australia last season probably felt unlucky to not have come away with more. With the best batting lineup in world cricket right now, and ever improving pace and spin bowling this was always going to be a fight. Australia's lack of desire to pick a team suited by Indian conditions and the general aging of its batting lineup was always going to make matters worse. 

Just as Australia made a break from tradition a decade ago and marked some of its players with a bright red T for test and O for one day, now might be the time to do the same for subcontinent specialists. One man whose game is ill-suited for the flat tracks of India is Brett Lee. Anywhere else in the world he is the first bowler to be picked and rightly so. In India, bowlers like Nathan Bracken should be given the opportunity to prove their worth. Whilst the Indians struggled with Shane Warne, this should not be confused with struggles against wrist-spin. The Indians face better leg spin than the stylings of Cameron White in the nets. Curiously, finger spin has always been more successful in India (non-Shane Warne division). 

It may be that some of the batting simply requires a freshen. Sending home a few of the struggling batsmen such as Hussey and Hayden and seeing what the backups have got for the remainder of the tour could be a forward thinking move. Hussey can certainly rebound, though he looks in dire need of some time off. Hayden could be done. A 37 year old in his kind of form rarely gets a long time to rebound. As for the bowling, a look at a pace attack of Siddle, Bollinger and Bracken would give the overused Johnson and the unsuited Lee a nice freshen before the summer series in Australia. 

These changes aren't likely to turn the teams fortunes in India around in a hurry, but it has at least as good a chance as the current group. And if nothing else, it gives the selectors a glimpse of what kind of depth is available. Certainly, it is more forward thinking than the ostrich like move of adding Symonds and assuming that everything else will be alright.

The Caulfield Cup Debacle

In fairness to WHAB's resident punters, no-one else of sane mind was spruiking All The Good or Barbaricus. Sometimes racing doesn't make sense, just like the "Chewbacca Defense". You just have to say to yourself "this is Chewbacca...now just think about that for a second...it doesn't make sense!", shake your head in disbelief many times, and dust yourself off for next week's Cox Plate...

Caulfield Cup Preview:

This years Caulfield Cup looks like a vintage field with any number of quality stayers. The Captain and I will run through them to see if we just can't turn up some value.

My thoughts executive summary style: Don't get 4 y.o. Fever. The crop of 4 year old stayers is the best I have seen, however a lot of battle hardened 5 and 6 year olds are slipping through the cracks here.

I like a few horses in the market - Red Ruler, Guillotine and Littorio

I like a few horses in write-your-own ticket land; FU, Ice Chariot and Dolphin Jo.

I don't like the Hussler here. I asked myself a tough question; If the Hussler slipped out to $10, would I want it? No. $15? No. Class is one thing, the ability to stay something entirely different.

Avoiding the imports (Mad Rush and All the Good) until at least Melbourne Cup day.

1) Weekend Hussler:

Professor - $4.80... I don't think it will get the trip. I think that 2000 could be its upper bound, but a super horse and if it is for you then I won't try and talk you out of it.

Captain: I always had doubts he could genuinely stay. Cannot fathom the rush of money for him and am more than happy to leave him out as Caulfield Cup favourite. A true champion regardless of today's performance, it's sad to me that connections didn't target the Cox Plate and the Cox Plate only.

2) Maldivian

Professor - If it gets out to some ridiculous price I might give it a look. Here's my thinking about this guy, on-pace horses tend to look absolutely awful in lead up runs to their target races. So, if you think that he is ready to go (fitter!) then this could be a massive sting at $20+

Captain: For mine, he's just not going as well as this time last year, though I'm glad he's in the race to set a nice tempo for the horses I've backed. Favourite last year, but the field was weaker and I don't think he would have had anything for Master O'Reilly anyway. Not keen.

3) Master O Reilly

Professor - Up hugely in weight from last years tilt with 56.5 kilos (last year 50.5!). Note that some of this has to do with the weights being raised in general so don't get too scared off. Will need to have improved from last year a little though.

Captain: Up in weights but looks an even better horse than last year. One of your serious contenders here, you're not thinking clearly if you're leaving him out of your multiples.

4) Fiumicino

Professor - One that I am yet to back, because I think that $61 on fixed price is under what you will get tomorrow. Regardless, he has so many miles under his belt already, is a seasoned horse, has been in great form (is a joke on the slow so disregard the last one). Suffice it to say, I like him at $61 and I will love him at $100+ tomorrow.

Captain: Was more than happy to back him in some crappy race in Sydney a few weeks ago...far less happy to back him in a Caulfield Cup. Looks like his very best won't even put him in the finish. Likes the wet (the only reason he won an AJC Derby) but failed on the wet in the Metropolitan. Poorly weighted. Do I need to go on?

5) Kibbutz - scratched.

6) Nom De Jeu

Professor - Not for me after the barrier draw - I see the three kiwis form lines as being quite similar, but Red Ruler's run in the Kelt stands out of the three.

Captain: I am leaving out the Kiwis. I think the Kelt form simply isn't on par with the Turnbull form and as such, I'm leaving this one out. Not without a chance but you can't back them all.

7) Mad Rush

Professor - Love Francesca I really do. Will hopefully find a way to introduce myself at the Melbourne Cup but at this stage lets say I would have well prefered it to have run since arriving in the country. Melbourne Cup prefered.

Captain: Francesca Cumani is possibly the most beautiful woman in the world. The Professor won't get anywhere near her at the Melbourne Cup though...there's no way security will let that man close to her after he's polished off 3 bottles of wine and a dozen beers! I like this one for the Melbourne Cup. Think he'll run a nice race here without really looking the winner.

8) All the Good

Professor - See 7, but without the quality.

Captain: Happy to leave him out. A wait and see approach.

9) Douro Valley

Professor - The battlers horse that I have had some great wins on. Will have a nibble tomorrow for old times sake. Also a quality chance but hope to see $20+

Captain: Great win in the Yalumba. Will probably take a sit in this one and looks a good value chance at $17. Second in this race last year. Respect.

10) Ice Chariot

Professor - I will leave this for the Captain, my roughie of choice (even more so than FU!). Hates the mud so disregard last start, but has looked in career best form this prep. Old seasoned horse that has come in well at the weights. If you take one piece of advice here ever, an each way bet on the Chaz is a must.

Captain: All his runs have been pretty good this time in. Anything worse than a dead track and I would have said forget it, but on the dead, why not throw a few bucks each way on this fella?

11) Viewed

Professor - I can't see a cyclone coming in off the coast so I would leave out the mudlark extraordinaire. If it is coming down on Melbourne Cup day, this is your horse.

Captain: It irks me that an in form horse such as Newport, who has a Metropolitan as well as a Brisbane Cup under his belt can miss out on a start in favour of this dubious nag.

12) Littorio

Professor - Yet to put a foot wrong this prep. The knock is that it is in the middle of a long prep for a 4 y.o. horse and hitting a flat spot is not out of the question. On the top of my ratings for this race and I can't fault.

Captain: Here's your winner. A tick in every box.

13) Red Ruler

Professor - if a Kiwi horse is going to take this one out, it is this guy for mind. Have a look at the Kelt replay on this site and eat up some of the $16 on offer.

Captain: See Nom De Jeu. I actually like Nom De Jeu better than this guy at the trip.

14) Boundless

Professor - second pick of the Kiwis. I can't back everything though!

Captain: See Nom De Jeu/Red Ruler.

15) Dolphin Jo

Professor - This cup is extraordinary. Such a bumper crop of 4 year olds that all of the more seasoned types are slipping through the cracks, see $50+ on this and a nibble each way could be a great decision.

Captain: Great roughie. A really strong win last start, albeit in lesser company, but was held up a bit getting out and was a comfortable winner on the line. Looking a better bet for the Melbourne Cup, but you are foolish if you don't have a little bit of this today at silly odds.

16) Riva San

Professor - WANTS.IT.WET. Lacks the class of the other 4 year olds on top of the ground so no thanks.

Captain: Loves this trip and a bit of rain. Not without a chance, though a worrying sign was that she took forever to wind up last start and couldn't reel in Lorne Dancer. Lorne Dancer is not at Caulfield today.

17) Zagreb

Professor - Not as high on this horse as most people. Excuses last start, as G Boss couldn't avoid a clod of ground going into this horses mouth. Poor ride.

Captain: Had a piece of this at longer odds but can't understand the money trail here. A $10 shot makes him another Bossy money train. The Bossy money train is known to derail. Am now hearing he is in doubt for the race so will not tip him for the WHAB faithful.

18) Guillotine

Professor - In a world populated by Guillotine haters, I stand in a small group that can forgive a a 3 year old horse for a poor autumn showing. The spring performances of this horse have been nothing short of sensational. With Simon O' Donnell pulling out barrier 21 for him, it gets tougher but as they say in France, Simon O'Donnell can derelicte my Balls. Go the Tine!

Captain: One of those horses who you leave out because you like other horses better but are still worried about. A big show, but if he pulls even just a little bit starting from the car park then he is no chance.

19) Barbaricus

Professor - No. In a race where you can shop for between $50 and $100 on horses of the caliber of Ice Chariot, FU!, and Dolphin Jo, why on earth would anyone lay down their money here?

Captain: See Viewed...but with double the anger!!! On recent form, what is this doing at Caulfield today? Nevertheless, a genuine Kyneton Cup hope.

Pym 3:16

Even Jesus thought the Socceroos were a special. It's a fact.

Roughriders Star Stable changes

It just makes sense to add last year's Caulfield Cup quinella. Fernandina...you were rubbish. The first beaten and a total flop. You are gone. Master O'Reilly in. Absolute Glam has a day off so she is subbed out for Douro Valley. This gives me a Caulfield Cup line up of Master O, D. Valley, Zagreb, Ice Chariot and Littorio. Needless to say, I'm pretty confident...

The Calgary Roughriders Caulfield Cup tilt.

Didn't bother with small change this week. My stable is geared up for one race, and one race only: The Cup.

My stable had a hand of 2 (1 EM) already with Littorio and Guillotine ready for action. The thought earlier in the week was to use some of the surplus funds that I had ($150K), drop Raheeb and Predatory Pricer and buy a $25K horse plus the Hussler. 

Not happening. You are either a believer or you aren't at this stage and I am a non-believer. 

So my $275K had a lot of options. I was looking at a package of horses that included Nom De Jeu, Red Ruler, Master O  and the Valley. 

Nom De Jeu at $200K seemed like poor value compared to the better gate and Kelt run from Red Ruler, so in goes Red Ruler. Change left over bought Master O. 

My stables other interest will come from Red Lord either sneaking into the field or running in the crappy Group 2 cup. 

Weekend non-runners: Samantha Miss, Dreamscape, Whobegotyou, Rhyno Chaser and Bianca to carry the drinks.

C. Williams on his last chance with the stable. 2 wins or he is out on his ass.

What A Night!

A massive thunderstorm en route to Suncorp Stadium, a 4-0 thrashing, and for one minute of our lives, Tim Cahill and the Socceroos thought JB and I were awesome!

WHAB's Pre Game Show: Australia vs Qatar

Welcome to WHAB's pre game show as the mighty Socceroos take on the camel-shaggers from Qatar! Here's our thoughts on this evening's match.

Captain Carnage: Brazil 'A', I mean Qatar, are definitely one of the better sides in Asia. If you take away the two hidings against Australia their results are as impressive as any of the other Asian nations.Having a washed up '70's rocker like Robert Plant wannabe Bruno Metsu at the helm definitely helps their cause as his outfit of jeans and sports jacket seems to inspire players wherever he goes.

Bruno Metsu: Gotta whole lotta "naturalised Brazilian" love!

I can't even wear jeans to work! This is one of those games you can worry about because of the ease of our last two victories against Qatar and football being a funny game and all. But I have faith in the Aussie boys and the Pimp to get the job done. I'll be happy with 1-0 to be honest. Go Socceroos!!!

JB:Well tonight promises to be a match up that could go two ways, namely, they score an early goal and play a 10-0-0 formation, or we go on to continue to maintain Qatar as our bitch of the Asian confederation. No Kewell, no matter; the Qld fans will be there to support Roar captain C. Moore back in the Socceroos lineup and there isn't a roos fan who won't sell their first born to see Timmy Cahill in action in the green and gold. Prediction, tough to call, hope for a great home ground start to the campaign, fear the Brazillian come Qatar players who easily have the potential to poach a goal. The Pimp wants to top Guus as the most succesful Australian coach, the pressure is on and will be on at every qualifier. I like the integration of A-league players but at the same time I trust Pimp to pick a team to get the job done. Pimp for PM, well that is at least until ... I dare not say it. Those there at the ground or watching at home, be sure to keep an eye out for yours truly jumping and screaming in a stadium full of Australians.

Well JB and the Captain are off to Suncorp to make lots of noise, lots of camel jokes and to drink in celebration of another glorious victory for the green and golds!