NFL Wildcard Weekend

So we won the Second Test, now everything is alright, Ponting is the greatest and never makes any mistakes, that was his plan all along, yeah...get fucked...totally. Needing to distance myself from the luckiest Australian Cricket captain ever and the choking Pakistanis, let's talk some NFL with Week 1 of the playoffs. Strangely enough, three of these games are replays of games played last week...and those three games were blowouts...


NEW YORK JETS (9-7) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-6)

The Bengals, assured of a playoff spot, went to New York last week and got absolutely punished by the Jets, who needed to win to get in. There are two differences this week; Cincy are at home, and it's sudden death for them as well now. The Bengals, looking more like a team of Aussie battlers, and Carson Palmer looking like myself taking snaps at QB, got nothing going on offense last week but you'd expect that to improve a bit at home. It remains to be seen if Chad Whatever-The-Fuck-His-Name-Is-Now can get any meaningful yardage against Darrelle Revis; there's a staggeringly good list of top receivers who've been fantasy duds up against this guy this year. It's not just Revis though, as the Jets D is stingy across the board, so Cincy need some guys to step up and make some plays. The Jets also have the NFL's top rushing attack in Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, who the Bengals didn't seem to have an answer for last week. I just think Cincy were too comprehensively outplayed last week to turn it around, are still not quite over the death of team-mate Chris Henry just a couple of weeks ago, and are just going to be hoping for a Mark Sanchez meltdown. Jets by 6-12 pts.


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5) @ DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5)

Another one-sided affair last week, the Eagles head back to the world's greatest sporting arena, Cowboys Stadium:

It's believed more than 100 Gautemalan workers perished trying to get that 55m long HDTV up there...

But the show must go on. Philly were dreadful last week and I would say with confidence that they cannot and will not play any worse. They were out-muscled by the pretty-boy Cowboys but after having Andy Reid holler abuse at them all week, I expect them to bring a bit more to the table. The factor that the Eagles have to play on is the Cowboys awful playoff record in recent times, including a monumental choke against Seattle in 2007, and being the first #1 NFC seed to be bundled out in straight sets a year later. If Philly start well, then you can bet they'll be telling the Cowboys all about those last 6 playoff losses, and you can bet the crowd will sense another season so full of promise disintegrating. A good start and a couple of deep bombs to Desean Jackson (who McNabb overthrew twice last week when he was open and had a step) and Philly could be right in this. The Cowboys should win; Demarcus Ware has the defense fired up with consecutive shutouts to end the regular season...I'll give it to them in a close one. Cowboys by 1-6.


BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-7) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-6)

The Ravens have a bit of a shot here with the season-ending injury to Tom Brady's favourite receiver and NFL reception leader Wes Welker. You'd still expect Brady to have a nice game though being the playoff machine he is. The Pats have won 11 straight playoff games at home and I expect them to make it 12 but not without a fight. The Ravens best chance to win is to pump it up the middle all day with Ray Rice and their assortment of running backs. Like there's no tomorrow. The Pats have defended the run better this year but it will be interesting to see how they handle Baltimore's multi-pronged rushing attack in heavy doses. I've got Brady getting New England over the line with a match winning, heroic 4th quarter. After all, he's learnt from the best:

It's Pats by 6-12! Brady rules!

GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-5) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (10-6)

Last week, the Packers went to Arizona and won 33-7. Forget about that. Replacing Matt Leinart with Kurt Warner (who was rested) at QB is like upgrading from a Kombi Van to a Bentley:

Matt Leinart

Kurt Warner

The Cards will be much more competitive without Leinart throwing bricks to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. You just can't ever really trust a left-handed QB. Arizona also showed that they are a playoff team last season as they defied the punters, making it to within 35 seconds of a Superbowl victory. Green Bay are certainly a chance to win but they won't want to be taking too much confidence out of last week. If Arizona can stop the run of the Packers, they'll go a long way to winning this; if they can get any semblance of a running game of their own to boot, they'll be winning. The Packers were solid in all facets a week ago and will look out-muscle Arizona once again but ultimately, I cannot stress how bad Leinart is, and Warner, with good protection, leads the Cards to victory. Arizona by 6-12.

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Even the Arizona Cardinals can hardly believe the situation they now find themselves in; 9-7 in the regular season and now with a home game in the NFC Conference championship. And what's more, after I totally wrote them off against Atlanta, and then Carolina, I give them a good chance to win through to the Superbowl. Both the Cards and the Eagles benefited last week from their opponents sucking. The Giants were below par and Eli Manning had a forgettable evening against the Eagles. Still, Philly had to play well to get the win at Meadowlands. Arizona, on the other hand, simply turned up and watched the Panthers self-destruct. I don't think I've ever seen a really good team suck as bad as that. That said, the Cardinals passing game is clicking, even without Anquan Boldin (who might be back for this game), and they have established some sort of running game, which was non-existent during the regular season. Edgerrin James appears to be reborn at the right time...when he's looking for a new contract somewhere. But alas, Larry Fitzgerald is the man. He's made unbelievable catches all season, but his catches in the post-season are inspiring his team-mates to play their roles better. Their defense has also improved out of sight in recent weeks. The Eagles'offense, led by Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, has been very reliable of late and they should be able to move the ball down the field without too much trouble in this one. Philly's defense was superb last week, keeping the Giants without a TD. They face a more difficult assignment than a struggling Eli Manning here though. If they can shut down Arizona's resurgent running game I think they'll sneak away with the win. The Eagles defend the passing game better than the Panthers in general, and infinitely better than the Panthers defended the pass last week. But the Cardinals are at home...hmmm... I'm having trouble splitting the two teams but if you dangled me off a balcony until I picked one...Eagles to represent the NFC in the Superbowl.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Two of the top defenses in the NFL face off in the AFC Championship game. Baltimore's defense showed some of what they could do against the Titans, but the worry must be how long they were on the field. If you're being fair dinkum, the Titans should have won that game; they dominated time of posession, but shot themselves in the foot with three red zone turnovers. I detected what looked like a bit of tiredness in the Ravens defense late last week and their offense needs to step up if they are going to roll the Steelers here. Rookie QB Joe Flacco, who has done a super job to get them this far, needs to find a bit more time of posession from the passing game to compliment the running game of Le'Ron McClain (a favourite of the Professor) and Willis McGahee. At this stage of the season, Pittsburgh seem to have a great balance with Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore trucking it up, Ben Roethlisberger playing well and the defense doing their thing. I've said before that I'm not the biggest fan of Big Ben but he is throwing nicely of late...but I still don't entirely trust him. He'd want to be careful against the likes of Ed Reed or he could wind up with multiple interceptions. Taking everything into account, I'm tipping the Steelers. I think they'll be too good here and are deserved Superbowl favourites.

NFL Wildcard Weekend

Wildcard Weekend has thrown up some interesting match-ups for the first week of the playoffs, such is the nature of American sport being split into divisions. To cut a long story short, two teams are on the road this week against teams with inferior records. Let's look at the games that kick off the postseason, with the Professor giving his views on the chances of his beloved Miami Dolphins.

ATLANTA FALCONS (11-5) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-7)

With 427, the Cards scored as many points as the New York Giants in the NFC, the problem is that they conceded just as many. A shaky defense like that is shown up in the playoffs like a turd floating in a pool. That said, they are pretty handy at home, and score plenty of points on their home turf. That said, a number of their home games were against divisional rivals who were out of playoff contention about 12 weeks ago. They earn a home game here by winning what has been the crappiest division in football for as long as anyone can remember. So the Falcons have every reason to be confident going into this. The fact that Arizona have the worst running game in the league (how the hell did they make the playoffs?!) will play right into the hands of Atlanta; expect them to blitz early and try to get some hits on Kurt Warner, so as to hinder the explosive passing game. If Warner doesn't find his top targets in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald early, they will get smashed. When Atlanta have the ball, they will mostly hand it off to Michael Turner, who I'm tipping will rip apart the Arizona defense, thus opening up the game for the likes of WR Roddy White. The key for them is Matt Ryan making good decisions; if he throws no picks, they should win. But with a rookie QB on the road, in a playoff game, let's just say, the opportunity is there for Arizona to make some big plays. I can't go past Atlanta in this one. They are a much more balanced team and, in Turner, have a running back that will give the Cards defensive line night terrors. Falcons by 13.

Professor's margin mayhem (tab line Falcons -1.5): This should be tighter than most are tipping. I am not necessarily a believer in the Falcons - whilst the two-headed running game featuring Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood (who both averaged 4.5 yards per carry!) is a massive weapon, the defence and aerial game is not scaring anyone. Warner to Quan/Fitty and Steve Breaston (who would be the feature wideout in most other systems) could make this very interesting. That said a 1.5 start for the Cardinals is laughable. Even those bullish about the Cards such as myself see a margin between 6-10.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5) @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (8-8)

It makes about as much sense as Chewbacca in "The Chewbacca Defense" that an 11-5 team has to play on the road to an 8-8 team. "This is Chewbacca...now just think about that for a second"... but at least the Chargers are probably the most talented 8-8 team ever. Incredibly, they were 5-8 when Denver were 8-5; Denver went on to choke worse than Jean Van De Velde/Greg Norman/South Africa pre-08/09 all rolled into one. Up to that point, San Diego ("it means whale's vagina"), had been very unlucky, but an impressive four game streak sees them making their own luck. The Colts will air the ball out in this one, not just because they have struggled to run the ball this season, but because the Chargers weakness is defending the pass. This is likely going to be the most high-scoring and definitely the most entertaining of the four match-ups this week. The Chargers will look to establish the ground game with LaDainian Tomlinson before Phillip Rivers starts airing it out to the likes of Chris Chambers and Antonio Gates. Indy's QB Peyton Manning will be looking for Reggie Wayne with Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison chiming in with some catches. These teams have a thing going where every time they play it goes down to the wire; the last three contests have been decided by 2, 4, and 3 points. Should be a fantastic game with both teams having built momentum at the right time of the year. Could go either way, but I'll go with the Chargers by 4, only because they're at home.

Professor: Enough in the above to keep it going. Indy (-1.5) judging by the records should have the wood on the Chargers but the momentum behind the Bolts, Indy's numerous one-and-out playoff runs and the Bolts at home, means that I would take the Bolts here.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-5) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-5)

Has there ever been a more unlikely playoff dual than this. Last year, these teams combined for 6 wins and this year 22! The Ravens, true to their style of the last decade get by on a stifling defence and a solid ground game. Possession and field possession is their ethos. Add to that capable game management and the occasional deep threat from rookie QB Joe Flacco and whilst by no means a complete team, the Ravens are built for this time of year. If they weren't up against my team, the mighty Phins, I would be telling you to snap up the $20 on offer for this team to win the bowl. And you need to say nice things about the Ravens. Otherwise Ray Lewis will kill you.

Miami, on the other hand are one of the more balanced teams playing this weekend. Sound on defence, a young offensive line led by rookie Jake Long, a unheralded receiving core, the two-pronged running back tandem of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown and noodle-arm Chad Pennington. Yes, noodle arm. A man who couldn't fit into the Jets system of the now unemployed mangenius, Chad Pennington has been one of the NFL's top passers this year. Seriously, if you prefer to get involved in the most annoying saga in the NFL (Brett Favre) over this guy, you deserve to spend Superbowl Sunday in line at Centrelink you giant douche.

As for this contest, it could well be the match of the round. Supercoach Sparano will need to give the Ravens a number of different looks on offense - including a good look at the Wildcat. Beyond that, turnovers will be crucial - but Miami have done well in that regard this year. Pennington with the 97.4 passer rating built upon 19 TD's and just 7 interceptions will be the key to this. Beyond that, trying to stuff the Baltimore running game led by the coolest man in the NFL Le'ron McClain will be crucial. One of the most interesting things about the Raven's running game is that you know where they are going. Typically, the Ravens stack their three best run blockers in one corridor.

I tip Miami getting within the 3.5 offered on TAB, and maybe keeping the dream alive for another week.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-6-1) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-6)

The Eagles put the Cowboys out of their misery last week and clinched a playoff spot in the process. They take on a Vikings team with the NFL's leading rusher in Adrian Peterson, and the league's best run defense. You don't have to be Einstein to work out that Peterson is going to be very busy in this one, but I'm predicting that Philly's RB Brian Westbrook may see less carries than usual. I think Philly are going to go to the air in a big way; this will be either spectactularly successful or a spectacular flop. I'm going with the latter as I'm still not convinced about the Eagles. They are far too up and down for my liking and will be frustrated by the consistency of the Vikings on both fronts. If Donovan McNabb is intercepted more than once than Philly will be under all sorts of pressure. To me, the Eagles are a better team than Minnesota on their day...key words being "on their day". The only possible setback for the Vikings would be a shocker from QB Doctorin' In The Tarvaris Jackson but I don't think Brad Childress will give him much rein in the offense. More likely, it will be Peterson powering Minnesota to a narrow 3 point victory. Surely the Professor jests (see below)! Eagles by how far now?! On the road?!

Professors Margin madness! Philly (-2.5) - that will do me. There has been a bit of momentum at the right time behind the Eagles, and you can't forget that they have toiled in the toughest division in football. I think that this could be a blowout in favour of the Eagles, the Vikings are a nice team, but if Philly click (that is a big if) they won't have the firepower to get this done. The only hope for the Vikings is a ridiculous day on the ground for Peterson in inclement weather. Eagles by 13.