Sydney, Race 4: Perfect Vision Ilasik Stakes
The favourite More Joyous is a horse that I am more than willing to leave alone at $1.80. In its two race starts, we have seen it canter in by 5+ lengths and fail to finish. The first race is somewhat less impressive when examined properly - 1:05:05 over the 1100 is far from impressive and the margin speaks more to the poor quality of the opposition that it does to anything else. Melito was super impressive winning the Silver Slipper and looks a better bet at $4. Our Joan of Arc looks very much like 1200 will suit and could be the best bet in this race at $17. At large odds, Miss Macarthur is a rough place chance.
Sydney, Race 5: Myer canterbury Stakes
If Northern Meteor is ready to go, and runs out 1300 metres, it won't be beaten. They are two pretty big "ifs" so I will look elsewhere, especially at $2.30. The one I am looking to is El Cambio. A fantastic run behind Judged first-up. You could make a case for pretty much all of these, but I have a definite preference for form around Judged as I am banking on him as the star of the carnival.
Sydney, Race 6: Ranvet Stakes
Theseo is in fantastic form. However he is running in to some fantastic 2000 meter horses in this. Viewed and Moatize have been running well in unsuitably short races and 2000 metres is typically where you expect them to be winning. Newport couldn't have been any more impressive last week. The main concern with him is that Randwick seems to be where he is best. Zagreb obviously will win one of these at some point. I'll probably shop around here but right now I'm looking at the rougher pairing of Newport/Moatize.
Sydney, Race 7: Coolmore Classic
The scratching of Hot Danish brings some of the quotes in a little bit. I'll still be hoping to see $8-$10 somewhere about Judged because I think he is the best chance in this one. Illuminates ran on strongly last race off a middling pace. Absolutely Fabulous ran on well behind Hot Danish last start and should be peaking. I think there'll be a lot of pace on in this one and these three run-on types are the ones to work around. Glowlamp is an interesting runner if there is another scratching.
3 comments:
Prof, please tell me today has cured you of your Northern Meteor obsession. And very disapointed that you left Typhoon Tracy out of your Coolmore analysis...luckily, I didn't. She is a superstar in the making.
It's Saturdays like this that I'm glad I study Perth form. The ol' Get-Out-Of-Jail Stks at Ascot trick again.
P.S. Shirtman, the Professor and I are certainly not obsessed with Northern Meteor. He's a nice sprinter to be fair. But I can assure you, that the Professor has eyes only for Burdekin Blues. All I have heard about since the Expressway is "the Blues" this and "the Blues" that. My soft spot is for Forensics since the retiring of my favourite ever horse Super Elegant a couple of years ago. Gutsy as they come ol' Super. I won about a million dollars on the ol' boy. Love watching the Cat and the Target when they're on top of their game too. I guess living in Brisbane I'm a sucker for Doomben 10,000 winners. But I digress. Typhoon Tracy, wasn't sure about her before the Coolmore, but now am wondering why on earth connections are going to give the Doncaster a miss. Despite passionate cries from the Boss! How can you say no to Group 1 Glen?! Where's the love?! It's madness I tells ya!
The real killer for me was the massive left turn out of the gates by Newport.
I wasn't quite sure about TT either until yesterday, but I am always a little suss about these boom horses from Melbourne.
Yeah, my crush on Northern Meteor is over. The captain is right, visiting Brisbane horses are my real weakness, the Blues and Swiss Ace being my favourites.
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